NBC News calls Hillary Clinton the "apparent" winner in Indiana. Fox News is projecting a Clinton victory in the Hoosier state, as is CNN.

The first two thread on Indiana are full, so time for a third one. Here are the numbers from CNN:

22,019-vote margin for Clinton

√ Hillary Clinton: 637,389 votes (51 percent)
Barack Obama: 615,370 votes (49 percent)

With 99 percent of precincts reporting at 1:10 AM Eastern

Lake County, home to the city of Gary, is beginning to report, and thus far with about a quarter of the vote there tallied Obama is leading by a 3-to-1 margin. This is a real nail-biter, so stay tuned...

Update [2008-5-7 0:19:33 by Jonathan Singer]: Note, too, that there remains about a third of the vote in Monroe County -- home to the city of Bloomington (and thus Indiana University) -- a county where Obama is leading by about a 2-to-1 margin. NBC News estimates that as many as 10,000 votes could remain there, as well, so Obama might not need to pick up the entire remaining margin from Lake County (and the city of Gary).

Update [2008-5-7 0:23:28 by Jonathan Singer]: It looks like there may be a couple/few thousand votes remaining to be counted from 2 percent of precincts in Marion County, where the city of Indianapolis is located. At present, Obama is leading in the county by a 67 percent to 33 percent margin.

Update [2008-5-7 0:39:16 by Jonathan Singer]: Monroe County (Bloomington/IU) is now basically all in, 56 percent of the precincts in Lake County (Gary) are in, and Obama has cut the lead to a little under 17,000 votes. Only 5 percent of precincts statewide remain, so Obama might not be able to quite make it to even (at least tonight before all of the absentee and provisional ballots are counted). But we shall wait and see...

Update [2008-5-7 1:12:51 by Jonathan Singer]: We're up to 99 percent of precincts reporting (though still 2 percent in Marion County [Indianapolis] not reporting), and Clinton's lead has bumped up from about 17,000 votes to about 22,000 votes. Just about all of the vote in Lake County has now been counted. Looks like this might be about it for the night -- about a 2 percentage point victory (or perhaps slightly less, closer to 1.75 percentage points, to be precise) for Clinton.

The previous thread is getting a bit full, so time for a second one on the Indiana results. Here are the numbers from CNN:

38,311-vote margin for Clinton

Hillary Clinton: 574,643 votes (52 percent)
Barack Obama: 536,332 votes (48 percent)

With 88 percent of precincts reporting at 11:33 PM Eastern

Still waiting on Gary. For what it's worth, the mayor of the city is suggesting that Obama might have enough votes there to make up his small deficit elsewhere in the state.

Consider this a thread on Hillary Clinton's speech from Indianapolis following the Indiana primary.

Update [2008-5-6 22:58:31 by Todd Beeton]:Unity ticket alert. Note her use of the pronoun "we."

And I think standing up for working people is about the American dream and the Democratic Party. And I think standing up for the middle class is about who we are and who we can be if we stick together. So it is important that as we go forward in this campaign that we recognize that we are all on the same team. We're going to be standing up for you. We're going to be looking for a way to turn this country around and bring it back to what it should stand for and be all about. Better futures for you and your children, solving the problems that affect us here in America. I know that people are watching this race and their wondering, I win, he wins, I win, he wins. It's so close and I think that says a lot about how excited and passionate our supporters are and how intent so many Americans are to taking their country back. But I can assure you that no matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November. And I know that Senator Obama feels the same way.

I have to say, I don't think this leaves any doubt that if Obama does win this nomination, that Hillary Clinton would accept the VP slot. Am I reading too much into this?

From CNN:

41,468-vote margin for Clinton

Hillary Clinton: 461,252 votes (52 percent)
Barack Obama: 419,784 votes (48 percent)

With 71 percent of precincts reporting at 9:25 PM Eastern

Update [2008-5-6 21:15:22 by Jonathan Singer]: NBC News now classifying this contest as "too close to call". This differs from a "too early to call" classification in that there is now sufficient data upon which to make a call, but the results are simply too close to make a projection.

Update [2008-5-6 21:17:19 by Jonathan Singer]: In his speech on air now, Obama congratulated Clinton on her apparent win in Indiana, jumping the nets. We continue to keep an eye on the results...

CBS News has called Indiana for Hillary Clinton. No call from NBC News, CNN, or a number of the other nets. More as we have it...

Polls opened this morning at 6am Central time in Indiana and close tonight at 6pm. In a sign of the sort of turnout we should expect today, here's one anecdote from the Indianapolis metro area:

More voters have turned out in the first half hour than usually turn out in a half day, said Democrat precinct committeeman Cordelia Lewis-Burkes.

IN Secretary of State Todd Rokita has said that based on registration numbers and early voting and absentee turnout, they prepared for today as though it were a general election. Hotline has some numbers:

-- More than 140K people registered to vote in Indiana since the last election, and more than 160K people updated their registrations. The largest surge the state has ever seen.

-- The state received 167,783 absentee ballots by its noon deadline today, marking a "milestone" in absentee participation, Rokita said. [...]

-- Since 2004, Rokita estimates that the state has added about 600,000 people to their voter rolls. He said that many counties are preparing as if this were a general election.

In some potential good news for Barack Obama, as of Friday, a disproportionate percentage of the absentee ballots, 20%, came from just three counties, Marion, Monroe and Lake, all of which should go for Obama today. On the other hand, while people have touted the fact that Indiana is adjacent to Illinois and overlaps with the Chicago media market as plusses for Obama, on Hardball yesterday they were talking about how Clinton's internals show her even with Obama in northwest Indian, where Obama should be running away with it. The reason: Chicago local media is still covering Reverend Wright on a daily basis.

So what result are we likely to see tonight? Not shockingly, I'll go on the record predicting a Clinton win, yet another opportunity for John Zogby to eat some crow (in his final tracking poll, Zogby once again has Obama up 2 points.) One of the main reasons Zogby's likely to be off tonight, check out this doozy from his poll analysis:

In Indiana, the race is all tied up among women who plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary--at 44% each...

Really? Survey USA's final poll, which has Clinton up 12%, shows her leading among women by a 60-38 margin. Who are you going to believe?

The question is will it be a double digit victory for Clinton as many are predicting. I think 10% is the best margin she can hope for, but my instinct is that it will come in just under that. The folks over at Blue Indiana seem to agree.

Are you on the ground in Indiana? What are you seeing? And even if you're not, what's your gut telling you?

Update [2008-5-6 12:48:51 by Todd Beeton]:This is interesting, via Hotline:

Polls in Indiana close early at 6 p.m. Elections officials at each polling site have to designate "a shoot," which is about 50-feet from where voters enter the polling area to vote. Anyone who wants to get into vote has to be within the "shoot" by 6 p.m. How this area is chosen is arbitrary depending on election monitors. Watch for that to be a possible issue up in Northwest Indiana, which should field a large majority of the Democratic vote and would be likely territory for any lawsuits to keep the polls open longer.

A Katrina-level hurricane may ravage Indiana today; we have to be ready to report on its path of destruction through the state.  We have to make the real imaginable to those who are not there, just as we did in 2005.  This hurricane will pound at the pillars of democracy, blowing countless voters out of their polling places -- because they do not have the proper state-sanctioned photo identification.

Low-income voters, the elderly, and young students would be affected the most.  They are the ones who may not have needed to get proper identification in the past, or who may not have maintained it as current into the present.  The first two groups are those least able to take time away to work their way through the bureaucratic requirements needed for them to be able to exercise their most basic democratic right: an equal opportunity to vote on who will lead their nation.

A terrible lesson in voter suppression may be taught today.  We need to collect individual stories and make sure that people see it for what it is: the political equivalent of Katrina, in which the legitimate demand of the less privileged for protection is intentionally ignored, to widespread shock and outrage.