If the right people run in these states these are too:
Georgia (Chambliss is at 50 approval)
Kansas (approval 52)
That totals 19 possible races out of 22. Subtract only losing LA, considering Iowa is trending blue (first control of house and senate in I think about 15 years) and you cannot really attack a guy who is recovering from brain surgery (if he runs).
And remember Republicans usually dump money into the presidential race and are being out raised 2-1 in both houses. I think this could be an electoral shift on the scale of 1932 or 1980 (since 1958 was an off year) if we get a movement building presidential candidate (Obama or Edwards)
Finally the increase in young voter turnout, and call me crazy I think that a plus-12 in the senate and and 50-60 in the house are possible, given the right conditions--which are shaping up (we are now trusted more on just about everything and evangelicals have taken up enviroment and poverty as moral issues)
Following up on Adam T's analysis of the overall vote for the United States House last fall that appeared on this site about a week ago, The Hotline's state editor Quinn McCord takes his stab at the numbers and comes to some interesting conclusions of his own.
We all know '06 was bad for the GOP. But the breadth of the Dem victory shows up starkly in a new Hotline analysis of the cumulative nat'l vote for House candidates by state editor Quinn McCord.
Dems won 54.1% of the two-party vote in '06, much better than the GOP's 52.5% win in '02. That fueled Dem advantages in 27 states last year, compared to only 19 in '02. Most importantly, Dems carried the net vote in several swing states (OH, PA, MI, NV, NH), some of which they hadn't carried in more than a decade. Even in the reddest states, GOPers struggled to win more than 55% last year. They lost TN and NC outright. Also, Dems let only 10 GOPers go unchallenged in '06, compared to 45 uncontested Dem seats.
[...]
Here's the nat'l summary of two-party House results for the past four cycles; Leading totals are bolded:
GOP U.S. House Votes
Dem U.S. House Votes
2000
47,238,467 (50.3)
46,701,783 (49.7%)
2002
37,428,113 (52.5%)
33,905,437 (47.5%)
2004
56,112,869 (51.4%)
53,128,318 (48.6%)
2006
35,904,068 (45.9%)
42,291,298 (54.1%)
____
4-yr Total
176,683,517 (50.1%)
176,026,836 (49.9%)
# of States Won (w. flips)/Seats Uncontested
GOPers
Dems
__
Year
__
By GOPers
By Dems
29
21
2000
32
31
31 (+MS, MO, PA)
19 (+AR)
2002
36
44
30 (+MI)
20 (+CO, SD)
2004
29
36
23
27 (+MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, TN)
2006
45
10
[Tables slightly reformatted]
I'd strongly recommend you check out McCord's full analysis because it offers some very important insights into the political winds in the country. For instance, the Democrats increased their share of the votes in all but three states from 2004 to 2006 and, more importantly, they increased their share of the vote from 2002 to 2004 and again from 2004 to 2006 in 26 states. Four states upped their relative support for Democrats in each of the past three cycles, two of which -- Colorado and North Carolina -- could be evincing trends that could help out the Democrats not only on the congressional level but also quite possibly the presidential level. Fascinating stuff, really. Read it if you have the chance.
A judge ruled Friday that congressional aspirant Christine Jennings has no right to examine the programming source code that runs the electronic voting machines at the center of a disputed Southwest Florida congressional race.
Democrats in Congress meanwhile, said they'd allow Republican Vern Buchanan to take the seat next Thursday, but with a warning that the inquiry wasn't over and that his hold on it could be temporary.
The state has certified Buchanan the winner of the District 13 race by a scant 369 votes.
Although she could appeal, the ruling Friday from Circuit Judge William Gary prevents the Jennings camp from being able to use the programming code to try to show voting machines used in Sarasota County malfunctioned. Jennings claims that an unusually large number of undervotes - ballots that didn't show a vote - recorded in the race implies the machines lost the votes.
Jennings still has a complaint filed, however, before Congress, which is the ultimate arbiter of who will fill the seat. The seat is being vacated by Rep. Katherine Harris, a Republican who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate.
"The House has the power to collect evidence and make a decision about who, if anyone, was duly elected to represent the people of the 13th district," U.S. Rep. Rush Holt, D-N.J., said Friday before the judge's ruling. Holt plans to make an official statement next week making it clear that by seating Buchanan, the House isn't forfeiting the right to reverse that decision later.
This is the politically safe maneuver, designed to prevent the first few days and weeks of the Democratic Congress from being sidetracked. I worry, however, that even though Democrats have made it clear that they could reverse this decision, that by seating Buchanan they all but end any effective opposition to the legitimacy of the election in FL-13. The already difficult path for Jennings in FL-13 just became a lot more difficult.
Earlier today, Congressman Rush Holt (NJ-12) put out a statement that he will "take steps to put the U.S. House of Representatives on record as recognizing the justification of the electoral challenge filed by Congressional candidate Christine Jennings regarding the disputed election in Florida's 13th Congressional District, and making clear that any House proceedings on January 4, 2007, will not prejudice legal proceedings or legislative inquiry regarding the election's validity."
In other words, Holt will see to it that the House's seating of Republican Vern Buchanan is not taken as recognition of his victory (and thereby a rebuke of Jennings' challenge). Rep. Holt, the primary sponsor of the Voter Confidence and Accessibility Act, had this to say on the matter last month:
The inaccuracy of electronic touch-screen voting machines poses a direct threat to the integrity of our electoral system and to our nation's democracy. Once again this broken system has been exposed in Florida's 13th Congressional district where over 18,000 votes went uncounted. Without the means to fully guarantee that every vote is counted as fairly and accurately as possible, the authenticity of our recorded vote will always be uncertain and open to electoral and legal challenges.
Since then, others have speculated how to make matters right in this case. Following precedent, Howard Dean suggested Buchanan not be seated in the House, and Blue Jerseyencouraged Rep. Holt to lead that fight. Yet Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi has said little about the matter, and Jennings has now publicly relinquished opposition to seating Buchanan.
So, while Pelosi and other members of House leadership sit on the sidelines, Rep. Holt is getting in the game for democracy. In his latest statement, he clearly says
Under federal law, there is a procedure in place for reviewing contested elections. The House should do nothing to compromise or prejudice the case Ms. Jennings has before the Florida courts. I expect the evidence will show that the certification did not reflect the will of the voters and a re-vote is necessary. [Emphasis added]
byChris Bowers, Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 02:03:09 PM EST
One of the lawsuits begins today. From a People for the American Way Press release:
A hearing in the nonpartisan lawsuit seeking a revote for disenfranchised voters in Sarasota County's congressional election, as well as in the case brought by congressional candidate Christine Jennings, is scheduled for this afternoon and Wednesday. The nonpartisan lawsuit represents the interests of Republican, Democratic, and independent voters.
The hearing will focus on the discovery process for the suit, especially whether iVotronic voting machine manufacturer ES&S must permit examination of its source code by plaintiffs' independent investigators.
Any effort to prevent Buchanan from taking the seat would have to be approved by the full House.
If Pelosi decides to pursue that route, her new majority presumably would vote for it. But a source close to the Democratic leadership, who requested anonymity when discussing party strategy, said Pelosi most likely would let Buchanan take office while ordering an investigation by the House Administration Committee into whether a new election is warranted.
Pelosi is being pressed by Democratic activists to take a tougher stance and block Buchanan from being sworn in.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean told Florida's Bay News 9 earlier this month: "You cannot seat someone if you don't have an election that's valid."
The liberal organization MoveOn.org delivered a petition to Capitol Hill on Friday urging Congress to order a new election.
Historically, denying certified winners their seats can be the political equivalent of a bare-knuckles brawl on Capitol Hill. In 1984, partisan tensions ran high in a dispute over what came to be known as Indiana's "Bloody 8th" district.
In that race, Republican Richard McIntyre had been declared the winner by 34 votes one day after the election and by 418 votes after a state-ordered recount. But the Democratic-controlled House refused to seat him. For a time, both McIntyre and the Democratic candidate Frank McCloskey drew congressional pay, but neither was officially seated.
Six months later, after another recount, McCloskey was declared the victor by four votes. Republicans cried foul and stormed out of the chamber when McCloskey was seated. Then-Rep. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., said at the time, "This wound will not heal without a terrible price and a scar that will not disappear for many years."
This is probably the safest route to take right now, which keeps the issue alive but does not gum up the first couple weeks of the Democratic House. In the end, however, I don't really care how much Republicans cry foul over the FL-13. The only just solution is a new election, and in a few months hopefully that is the outcome that can be achieved.
byChris Bowers, Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:41:11 PM EST
Here are some items that caught my eye:
Jefferson kept off Ways and Means seat. Thank God. This committee will be a focus on investigations in 2007, and the last thing we needed was Jefferson holding a visible place on the committee that was investigating Bush.
The new congressional map becomes even bluer. As great as the new map looks, I would be lying if I said I didn't long for at least a dozen more seats. We can't let our hunger dissipate even though we now have a larger majority than Republicans have had in 60 years.
Speaking of Bill Clinton's legacy, Americans currently view his presidency quite favorably. Certainly, he blows the Bush away. However, he is not dramatically ahead of either the first Bush, or of Carter. That is demonstrative of a generally ineffective job of building the image of his legacy after the fact. This is a problem we have to solve. The nation really should be viewing Clinton's presidency at least as favorably as Reagan's, given that the two had comparable approval ratings during their time in office (see Reagan's and Clinton's). Hell, Clinton's approval was actually typically higher than Reagan's at equal points in their presidencies. If Clinton is not thought of on at least equal terms now, that shows our weakness in defining the two Presidents after the fact.
byChris Bowers, Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:36:57 AM EST
What a wonderful end to the election season! And truly unexpected. I am actually a little glad that I was so horribly wrong about both LA-02 and TX-23, since my head was getting a little big after by scary-accurate predictions of the House back on November 7th. I needed to be reminded that elections are ultimately unpredictable--which is one of the reasons why you need to fight tooth and nail until the end. Here are some thoughts on Crio's victory tonight:
Democrats now have 233 seats in the 110th congress, more than Republicans have had since 1952. the Republican "revolution" never secured this large a majority in the House. We beat them. We did better than they ever did. So much for the vaunted Republican political machine, which recorded record voter contacts, record fundraising, and record early voting this cycle. With their best effort, we beat them harder than they ever beat us. With FL-13, we could make our total in the House 234.
This seat is Ciro's to hold until redistricting. He beat an incumbent pretty badly tonight, and now he is once again an incumbent Democrat from a majority minority district. With Latinos making up ore than 50% of the registered voters in this district, this one isn't going back to Republicans for a long time. Considering Ciro's strong voting record, the TX-23 will be a cornerstone of a blue majority for a long time to come.
The first news source in the nation to call the election? Burnt Orange Report. How cool is that? Local blogging is the way of the future, and Burnt Orange Report has always led the way when it comes to first-rate local blogging. Their prediction was not based on partisan leanings, either. Rather, it was based on hard analysis of where the where the early votes were coming from.
Speaking of blogs, how odd is it that both Crio Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar will be in Congress next year? Didn't see that one coming. Henry Cuellar might also take a lesson from Crio now--no need to be conservative in order to hold now a district in Texas. We bloggers might also take a lesson too--just because we think the reason a candidate lost becaue he was a poor campaigner, doesn't mean we were right. Ciro won this race easily, even though few us in the blogerati thought he had a chance. And so another netroots candidate wins, even though we did not back him like we should have in this election.
Take that, Republican vote suppression tactics. Holding this election on a Mexican holiday was probably designed to drive down Democratic turnout. Instead, it sent Democratic turnout well beyond Republican turnout. To quote Nelson Muntz: "ha-ha." It should also be a lesson to those progressives who think that Republicans are perfectly adept at stealing elections: we are not facing an all-powerful force that can manipulate time and space. Here is a clear case where Republican attempts to swing an election utterly backfired.
How's that Dailykos / MyDD / Swing Sate Project page looking now? Eight challengers will be in Congress next year. One other, Ned Lamont, rocked the political world with his primary victory (and the vast majority of money we raised for him came in the primary). Five others--Darcy Burner, Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Gary Trauner, and Linda Stender--came within 1-2% of victory. Consdering that we only targeted candidates who, at the time of our endorsement, were considered second tier challengers, that is pretty fucking amazing. Our second tier target list performed at least as well as the top-tier target list of most party committees and advocacy organizations (DSCC excluded). I look forward to continuing to confound the experts next cycle.
You want to know why pundits will continue to call this a conservative victory? Because so many politicians and media types have spent so long sucking up to conservative institutions--K Street and the Republican Noise Machine--that turning back now and calling this election cycle a progressive victory would means years, if not decades, of wasted investment. People who owe their access and their careers to conservative institutions are not about to throw everything away because one of measly election. We will only achieve a progressive America when politicians and media types are spending more time sucking up to progressive institutions--academia, unions, even the blogosphere--than they are to conservative institutions. Quite frankly, it is a miracle that we managed a progressive majority with the institutional forces lined up against us. That miracle was found in people-power.
Woo-hoo! Victory is sweet. It is almost sweeter when it is unexpected. Well done, Representative Rodriguez. It is great to have you back.
[Update from Matt: I will just say that I didn't know this district at all and didn't see this coming, but it's just awesome to capture number 30. Rahm Emanuel made a gutsy and good call to work this district with a lot of resources. He should get credit for this one.]
The early numbers look good out of Texas-23 according to the Associated Press.
Democratic former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez held a strong lead Tuesday over Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla as they battled for a congressional seat in a runoff election.
With more than half the precincts reporting in the state's largest district, Rodriguez was leading Bonilla 57 percent to 43 percent.
More details to come...
Update [2006-12-12 21:49:39 by Jonathan Singer]: With 55.43 percent of precints reporting, former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez leads incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla 30,408 (56.84%) to 23,089 (43.16%).
Update [2006-12-12 21:53:29 by Jonathan Singer]: With 67.42 percent of precints reporting, Rodriguez's lead is up to 32,243 (57.25%) to 24,077 (42.75%). The Burnt Orange Report says it's in the bag and it appears they may be right.
Update [2006-12-12 22:5:14 by Jonathan Singer]: The AP calls it for Ciro.
Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican Henry Bonilla in a runoff election Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress.
Update [2006-12-12 22:19:19 by Jonathan Singer]: With 79.40 percent of precincts reporting, the numbers are tightening -- but not likely enough to put Bonilla over the top. Currently, Rodriguez holds a lead of 35,239 (55.38%) to 28,398 (44.62%).
Update [2006-12-12 22:46:22 by Jonathan Singer]: And with 95.13 percent of precincs reporting Rodriguez is up 37,250 (54.54%) to 31,044 (45.46%).
