If the Republicans want to have any hope of retaking the House in 2008 they're going to need to recruit strong candidates to challenge potentially endangered Democratic members, particularly those who are only in their first term and particularly those who represent districts that tend to otherwise vote Republican. But in case after case the Republicans have failed to woo top candidates in the districts they need to.

Take North Carolina's 11th congressional district, which leans about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. Last fall, Democrat Heath Shuler defeated the ethically-challenged Republican Congressman Charles Taylor and at least theoretically would not be immune to a challenge from a strong Republican candidate. But as Mark Johnson reports for The Charlotte Observer, the GOP was met with a loud "no" from one of their top prospects in the district.

N.C. Sen. Tom Apodaca, the No. 2 Republican in the state Senate, announced Monday that he will not run for the congressional seat held by U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, a freshman Democrat whose district could make him one of the most vulnerable Democrats in Congress next year.

"My family, friends and supporters have been wonderful in pressing me to run," Apodaca said in a prepared statement. "As of now, I'm in a position to do more for Western North Carolina in Raleigh than I would be as part of Congress."

National leaders from the Republican Party had courted Apodaca for the campaign, given his Henderson County base and tenure as deputy Republican leader in the state Senate. At Monday's Apple Festival parade in Hendersonville, onlookers occasionally shouted "Congressman!" at him.

It looks like folks are afraid of Shuler -- and for good reason. It's not for nothing that Shuler won by 8 points in 2006. At the same time, Shuler is a freshman in a fairly Republican district, and in a vacuum Republican legislators like Apodaca would be chomping at the bit for an opportunity to run.

But this cycle is clearly not gearing up to one in which there is no wind blowing in either direction. While the political environment could change before election day, the fact is that at this key moment, when both parties are desperately fighting to find the right slate of candidates so that they can increase their share of seats in both chambers of Congress, the Democrats are tending to hear "yes" and the Republicans are tending to hear "no" -- a clear sign that, at least as far as Republican state legislators and county commissioners and businessmen and the like are concerned, there could be another bloodbath for the GOP in 2008.

Sometimes the raw talent all rises to the top at once.  Over at Scrutiny Hooligans, the front page is worth an able-bodied whorin' over here at MyDD.  Click over for:

Writ of Summons on Hillary:  

"Thank you, Mrs. Clinton for the Cold War history lesson!  And since you had those eight years in the White House (happening after the Cold War), of course you're right!  If the Pashtoons or Taliban give us enough trouble, we can nuke the bastards if we want to."

My rundown of Day One at Yearly Kos

Drama Queen went to the Cannon Building in D.C. to ask Rep. Pat McHenry for a list of questions he didn't answer during his online town hall event earlier this week:  

"It was very sad. His intern/greeter dude could only give me an inch of water; that's all they had. Maybe I should make it into a postcard that says: "I visited my Congressman and all I got was an inch of water in a plastic cup."

Yes, there's even more!

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane & My Left Wing


click to enlarge

I'm sick of moral victories.  Moral victories are nothing more than real world defeat.  Heath Shuler is North Carolina's best chance to avoid a moral victory.  

Rep. Shuler possesses all the abilities and attributes North Carolina needs to regain our Senate seat from a Kansan.

This blog serves one purpose, to convince Heath Shuler to run for the Senate.  After a victory over 16 year House veteran Charles Taylor, Heath Shuler can once again achieve another victory.  This time over Elizabeth Dole.

Let's rise together and send a message.  We want a candidate who represents North Carolina and we want a candidate who can win.  Shuler is right for North Carolina.

As a member of the Blue Dog Caucus, Shuler is fighting to return fiscal responsibility to Congress.  Shuler helped return the idea of PAYGO to the budget and is fighting for accountability and transparency in government.

Heath is right for the American worker.  He is an advocate for raising the minimum wage.  He is helping lead the fight against unfair trade agreements, which have lead to thousands of Americans losing their jobs.

As an outdoorsman, Heath understands the importance of environmental stewardship.  He has fought the Bush administration's plan to sell thousands of acres of National Forest land to the highest bidder.  He is working to combat global warming; and he is a supporter of renewable energy.  He understands the needs to remove America's dependence on foreign petroleum.

Now is the time, contact Heath Shuler and let him know that he is right for North Carolina and right for America.

Phone:(828)252-1651 (Asheville Office)
Phone:(202) 225-6401  (Washington D.C. Office)

CQ Politics posted an interesting analysis of Democratic Party Unity since regaining the majority.  Here's the bit on Congressman Shuler:

Heath Shuler, North Carolina's 11th District (West -- Asheville)

* Party Unity Score: 82.9 percent (4th lowest)

* 2006 result: Shuler 54%, Rep. Charles H. Taylor 46%

* 2004 President: Bush 57%, Kerry 43%

Shuler, who takes conservative positions on some social issues, voted against the bills to promote embryonic stem cell research and to classify certain violent offenses as "hate crimes." He also voted against a defeated bill, backed by 169 Democrats and two Republicans, that called for the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq within 180 days.

When Congressman Shuler took office, I was prepared for him to vote against Democrats and progressives on issues of gay rights, stem cell science, and a range of other "social issues".  What I wasn't prepared for was the poor reasoning and outright intolerance in casting those votes.

Follow me after the jump for analysis of this Mixed Bag Democrat.

Once again, here's the list of the Blue Dogs (plus Sestak) who are against the supplemental because of the conditions it imposes. I removed Kirsten Gillibrand, because she signaled she'd vote for the bill after internal deliberations and public pressure from her supporters.

Here's the list, with three new members (Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), and Bob Ethridge (NC-02)). Lots of Indiana reps on the list, which is nice because it's Evan Bayh whose wavering in the Senate (along with the Nelsons, of course).

Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
John Barrow (GA-12)
Melissa Bean (IL-08)
Dan Boren (OK-02)
Jim Cooper (TN-05)
Bud Cramer (AL-02)
Lincoln Davis (TN-04)
Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08)
Bob Ethridge (NC-02)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) ???
Baron Hill (IN-09)
Tim Mahoney (FL-16)
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
Mike McIntyre (NC-07)
Collin Peterson (MN-07)
John Salazar (CO-03)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Heath Shuler (NC-11)
Gene Taylor (MS-04)

Today's big win in the Appropriations Committee is good for momentum. Win or lose, Pelosi is an amazing Speaker.

From a source close to the House Democratic caucus, here's a list of Blue Dogs that don't want to vote for this bill because it has a certain date for withdrawal.  

Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
John Barrow (GA-12)
Melissa Bean (IL-08)
Dan Boren (OK-02)
Jim Cooper (TN-05)
Bud Cramer (AL-02)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
Baron Hill (IN-09)
Tim Mahoney (FL-16)
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
Mike McIntyre (NC-07)
Collin Peterson (MN-07)
John Salazar (CO-03)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Heath Shuler (NC-11)
Gene Taylor (MS-04)

It's sad to see some freshmen we supported on the list.  Joe Sestak, Kirsten Gillibrand and Michael Arcuri had some online support from the progressive netroots.  Tim Mahoney, Heath Shuler, Brad Ellsworth, and Baron Hill were mostly to nearly all Rahm recruits.

These people are the Democrats that held Pelosi and the progressive hostage on the language for a firm withdrawal.  They are keeping the war going.  They need to be brought over.

UPDATE: Sestak isn't a Blue Dog, and I'm told that Kirsten Gillibrand just wants to see the bill first. Mmmkay. Color me skeptical. A simple public statement would do wonders.

UPDATE AGAIN: Kirsten Gillibrand has publicly stated she will vote for the supplemental.

Presidential candidate Sen. John Edwards appeared alongside Rep. Heath Shuler at an event in an Asheville, NC home this afternoon. Maybe fifty people. Informal, though nearly all the men wore ties. Edwards did not. And I did not remember to take notes.