At this late hour I've put the finishing touches on the final update to MyDD's Governor Forecast 2006. On election eve (or morning), I now project the Democrats picking up 9 governorships, putting them at a 30 to 20 advantage.

Democratic Targets

Ohio and Massachusetts now join New York in the safe category, with Ted Strickland and Deval Patrick consistently leading by 20 points or more. Colorado is not far behind. Other races moving closer towards the Democrats include Minnesota, which remains far from a lock (and thus is still a toss-up), Nevada, Idaho, Alaska and Florida (the last four of which provide Democrats for one, perhaps two pick-ups but nevertheless could all go Republican). The race in Arkansas seems to have gelled with Mike Beebe leading with a comfortable 8-10 point margin, which might narrow in actual balloting. The race in California is now off of the table (perhaps I should have removed it earlier). And perhaps the only cautionary news among Democratic targets comes from Maryland, where Martin O'Malley's lead has shrunk to just a couple of points. He is still favored, but the race is now a toss-up.

Safe Democratic: 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer). 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland). 3. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick).

Likely Democratic: 4. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe).

Toss-Up: 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley). 7. Minnesota (Democrat: Mike Hatch).

Leans Republican: 8. Idaho (Democrat: Jerry Brady). 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus). 10. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). - Knowles 40, November 3; Dittman, Palin 48 - Knowles 39, October 26.

Likely Republican: 11. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). 12. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty).

Safe Republican (in alphabetical order): Alabama, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and Vermont.

Republican Targets

Democratic Governors around the country are breathing easier going into election day than they were one month ago or even a year ago. Govs. Ted Kulongoski, Rod Blagojevich and Jennifer Granholm (of Oregon, Illinois and Michigan, respectively), each of whom might have been considered underdogs at some point, each appear on path for reelection. While Jim Doyle's lead in Wisconsin has shrunk in recent days -- enough so to move him into toss-up range -- he still is favored to win reelection. Maine's John Baldacci is not quite as certain, though the presence of an Independent candidate and a Green candidate on the ballot could mean that 36 percent is enough for him to win. Finally, Iowa, which long looked like the Republicans best pick-up opportunity, is seeing a late, though noticeable move towards Democrat Chet Culver.

Toss-Up: 1. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci). 2. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle).

Leans Democratic: 3. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski). 4. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver). 5. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich). 6. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm).

Safe Democrat (in alphabetical order): Arizona, Kansas, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wyoming.

Overall, the nation's 36 governor races seem to offer the Democrats their best opportunities for gains in more than a decade, with the potential for about 10 pick-ups when the dust settles on election day. These shifts will both be important and monumental, as governors have the capacity not only to lead on policy (including redistricting) but also to affect the partisan make up of states. It is not coincidental that Democrats are showing new signs of life in states like Wyoming, Montana, Arizona and Kansas, each of which has a popular Democratic Governor.

For the latest polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

I have updated the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 and there is a real possibility that the Democrats will pick up nine governorships. That's right, going from a 22-28 disadvantage to a 31-19 advantage. Really.

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

Republican Congressmen for open governorships in Idaho and Nevada are skating on thin ice, very close to losing races in which they were long favored to win. While I project both still as "leans Republican", it's not a very strong lean and the Democrats could take either or both of the seats. In the relatively safe and safe pick-up category, Ohio, Massachusetts, Arkansas and Colorado are looking more and more like locks for the Democrats (I'm not even going to mention New York), and Martin O'Malley in Maryland continues to hold a decent lead over GOP incumbent Bob Ehrlich. Minnesota might even be breaking for the Democrats. Rhode Island and California, blue states that both showed promise for the Democrats at some point during this cycle, are becoming stronger and stronger holds for the Republicans. And finally, Florida polling seems to indicate some tightening, though Republican Charlie Crist continues to hold at least a moderate lead.

Safe Democratic 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer).

Likely Democratic 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland). 3. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick). 4. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe).

Leans Democratic 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley).

Toss-Up 7. Minnesota (Mike Hatch).

Leans Republican 8. Idaho (Democrat: Brady). 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus). 10. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). 11. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty).

Likely Republican 12. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). 13. California (Democrat: Phil Angelides).

Safe Republican (In alphabetical order, by state): Bob Riley in Alabama, Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Sonny Perdue in Georgia, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Dave Heineman in Nebraska, Mark Sanford in South Carolina, Mike Rounds in South Dakota, Rick Perry in Texas (though the race should be interesting with two strong independent candidates), and Jim Douglas in Vermont.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

The chances of the Republicans picking up one or more governorships this year are getting bleaker and bleaker. In Maine, where Democratic Governor John Baldacci is having trouble polling over 42 percent against Republican Chandler Woodcock, even the prescence of a strong indie candidate is not helping the cause. In Oregon, public polling shows Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski with a growing lead. In Iowa, which might be the Republicans' best shot as the only open Democratic seat this year, Democrat Chet Culver continues to hold a small, though meaningful lead. And in the mid-western states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois, Democrats continue to lead even as regional and local issues suggest they should be in trouble.

Toss-Up 1. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver). 2. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci). 3. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski).

Leans Democratic 4. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle). 5. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm). 6. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich).

Safe Democrat (In alphabetical order, by state): Janet Napolitano in Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, John Lynch in New Hampshire, Bill Richardson in New Mexico, Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming.

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

I have updated the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 and things look to me a little something like this...

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

First, a few moves. South Carolina, which I had been watching since a close SurveyUSA poll, is now off the board with the Mark Sanford at over 55 percent support. Rhode Island, which had been a toss-up, should not be considered "leans Republican" given the fairly solid lead by Don Carcieri (though the race is not yet over, naturally). And Colorado now moves ahead of Massachusetts on the list of potential Democratic pickups, partially because Bill Ritter is polling better and better and partially because some of Kerry Healey's hits on Deval Patrick are taking some toll. Ohio and and Maryland appear to be solidifying for the Dems, the former in particular because the baseless attacks on Ted Strickland's sexuality appear to be backfiring on Ken Blackwell. Finally, Florida stays in the "likely Republican" category, but is now a race to keep an eye on given recent polling.

Safe Democratic 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer).

Likely Democratic 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland). 3. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). 4. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick). 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe).

Leans Democratic 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley).

Toss-Up 7. Minnesota (Mike Hatch).

Leans Republican 8. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty). 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus).

Likely Republican 10. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). 11. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). 12. California (Democrat: Phil Angelides).

Safe Republican (In alphabetical order, by state): Bob Riley in Alabama, Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Sonny Perdue in Georgia, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Butch Otter in Idaho (filling an open seat), Dave Heineman in Nebraska, Mark Sanford in South Carolina, Mike Rounds in South Dakota, Rick Perry in Texas (though the race should be interesting with two strong independent candidates), and Jim Douglas in Vermont.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

First, the moves. Pennsylvania is now off the board; Ed Rendell is just too strong, Lynn Swann too weak. I have also moved Wisconsin and Michigan from the "toss-up" category to "leans Democrat". These two races are still tight and could go for the Republicans, but Jim Doyle and Jennifer Granholm both have clear edges. Iowa might additionally show Democratic leanings, but it remains in a "toss-up" at this point. Illinois might be showing some early signs of trouble, with a large share of support going to a Green candidate, but for now Rod Blagojevich's negatives appear to be trumped by those of his Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka. Finally, Maine continues to be a trouble spot for the Democrats as John Baldacci stands barely over 40 percent; however, Chandler Woodcock's conservatism and the presence of a third party candidate with strong support are keeping this race up in the air.

Toss-Up 1. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci). 2. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski). 3. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver).

Leans Democratic 4. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle). 5. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm). 6. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich).

Safe Democrat (In alphabetical order, by state): Janet Napolitano in Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, John Lynch in New Hampshire, Bill Richardson in New Mexico, Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming.

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

Update [2006-10-24 17:5:17 by Jonathan Singer]: Thanks for everyone passing on new polling from Massachusetts out today. I'll factor that in and have an update later this afternoon or evening.

I have updated the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 and things look to me a little something like this...

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

In Massachusetts, Deval Patrick appears to be cooling off a tad, though he is still a clear favorite to win election this year. Minnesota is looking increasingly good for the Democrats, though they have been fooled one too many times in the past in the state to feel comfortable with their chances in this year's gubernatorial contest. Alaska appears to be becoming slightly more competitive, though Republican Sarah Palin still has a bit of an edge in the race.

Safe Democratic: 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer).

Likely Democratic: 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland). 3. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick). 4. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe).

Leans Democratic: 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley).

Toss-Up: 7. Minnesota (Democrat: Mike Hatch). 8. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty).

Leans Republican: 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus).

Likely Republican: 10. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). 11. California (Democrat: Phil Angelides). 12. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). 13. South Carolina (Democrat: Tommy Moore).

Safe Republican: (In alphabetical order, by state) Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas, and Vermont.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

Iowa and Michigan move down the list for the Republicans, with Michigan nearing the "leans Democratic" category. I am also beginning to take a look at Kansas to see if Kathleen Sebelius should be put on the map (even if she is still greatly favored to win reelection).

Toss-Up: 1. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci). 2. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski). 3. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver). 4. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle). 5. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm).

Leans Democratic: 6. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich).

Likely Democratic: 7. Pennsylvania (Democrat: Ed Rendell).

Safe Democrat: (In alphabetical order, by state) Arizona, Kansas (though I am beginning to keep an eye on this race), New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming.

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

Just four weeks from election day, Democrats are still on track to make big gains on the governor front, with enough seats now realistically in play that if the party holds its own competitive seats like Maine and Oregon it could end up with as many as 30 governorships -- up from 22 currently.

Among Democratic pick-up opportunities, I have moved Alabama and Georia into the "safe Republican" column and may soon do the same to South Carolina, unless additional polling confirms SurveyUSA's finding that Democrat Tommy Moore is within 4 points of GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. The overall outlook for Democrats is essentially the same as it was last week, though perhaps slightly better as questions about whether or not Rhode Island is still competitive have been answered as Charlie Fogarty remains tied in the polls.

Among Republican pick-up opportunities, I'm moving Oregon up the ladder two slots based on polling I'm not entirely comfortable with (the likely voter model shows significantly higher Republican turnout relative to the entire electorate than has been the case in 60 or 70 years). Though I still see Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski pulling out a victory, Oregon is now the Republicans' third best pick-up opportunity (partially because Jennifer Granholm appears to be pulling away in Michigan).

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

Five weeks from election day, a number of gubernatorial races appear to be breaking -- although not all in the same direction.

Given the stregth of Democrats in polling out of Colorado and Arkansas, those two states now join Ohio and Massachusetts as "likely" pick-ups for the Democrats. The rating of five GOP governorships as "likely Democratic" points to a big swing among the nation's executives. At the same time, California and Florida -- which for at least a time appeared to be competitive, though leaning Republican -- are now becoming less competitive, moving into the "likely Republican" category. Interestingly, SurveyUSA polling from South Carolina indicates the possibility of a competitive race, though I'll wait for other polling before I jump on that race just yet.

There isn't as much polling from Democratic-held governor races as there has been from GOP seats, but there is some movement in at least one race. Bowing to the polling, I have begrudgingly moved Oregon to the "toss-up" category, though I still believe Ted Kulongoski will be able to pull off a victory.

For more on the key governor races this year, check out the full MyDD Governor Forecast 2006.

Like our last update, the latest changes to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 show some movement within races but not significant changes in the overall outlook, with Democrats still favored to pick-up a net six governorships.

Democratic gubernatorial candidates Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and Bill Ritter of Colorado appear to be pulling away these days, with Patrick in particular potentially taking his race completely off of the table (a la Eliot Spitzer in New York). The number of Republican-held seats currently listed "toss-up" or better for the Democrats now stands at eight -- more than the number of Democratic-held seats that are even potentially in play this year.

Yet just as Democratic chances overall are blossoming, individual Democratic Governors in Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin and, to an extent, Oregon are having real difficulties in their reelection campaigns. It is quite possible that one or more of these Democrats will lose this fall, though each of them is still favored at least slightly.

For more information and polling on all of the key races, visit the complete MyDD Governor Forecast 2006.

Update [2006-9-26 17:8:13 by Jonathan Singer]: Skeptical about Patrick's lead in Massachusetts? Rasmussen Reports pegs his lead at 57 percent to 24 percent. This race could still move around -- Patrick's post-primary bounce could diminish -- but if this lead can hold, this race will most definitely join New York in the "safe Democratic" category.

While there has been a wealth of polling over the last few days there hasn't been a terribly large amount of movement among governor's races. The overall picture remains the same with the Democrats likely picking up a net six governorships on November 7. That said, there have been a couple changes in the forecast since late last week.

In Minnesota, new polling confirms that Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty is in a real position to lose to Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. Although I probably see Pawlenty pulling this off, the race nonetheless moves from "leans Republican" to "toss-up."

Illinois is another state that appears to be trending more Democratic -- much to the benefit of embattled incumbent Rod Blagojevich. Though I don't put complete faith in polling showing the governor up 30 points, his opponent Judy Baar Topinka is having real difficulty getting off the ground running. This race moves down one slot on the Republicans' potential pick-up list, moving Oregon up one.

In other news, Deval Patrick's big win in Massachusetts should give Democrats hope of retaking the state's governorship, but we'll have to see if either he or Republican nominee Kerry Healey gets much of any bounce. Otherwise, races in Michigan, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio and elsewhere seem to be gelling, so the overall picture stays the same (for now) with a projection of 28 Democratic Governors and 22 Republicans.

For more information on all of the key races, visit the complete MyDD Governor Forecast 2006.