A particularly troubling and inaccurate meme on this site among Hillary Clinton supporters is that somehow if Hillary Clinton were to get the Michigan and Florida delegations seated in the proportions she won in both states, she would magically become the front-runner.
Take for instance:
"[I'm] thinking about how FL/MI will be seated and counted, and the implications of that (Sen. Clinton being the frontrunner again)." by SevenStrings
THE FACTS
Assumptions: For the sake of argument, let's assume the most likely of the unlikely scenarios:
(1) the Florida delegation is seated exactly as-is, according to the vote in Florida where no one was allowed to campaign; and
(2) the Michigan delegations are seated with Clinton getting the percentage that she received, in an election where only she left her name on the ballot, and Obama gets the delegates for the "uncommitted" votes.
POPULAR VOTE
Here are the popular vote numbers* from RealClearPolitics:
Popular Vote (w/o MI/FL):
Obama: 13,689,293
Clinton: 12,861,985
Spread: Obama +827,308
Popular Vote (w MI/FL):
Obama: 14,503,675
Clinton: 14,061,280
Spread: Obama +442,395
As you can see, even if MI and FL are included, Obama is still the frontrunner in the popular vote by more than 400,000 votes.
STATES WON
This is pretty simple, if MI and FL are counted, Clinton only picks up two states to add to her tally, bringing her from 13 to 15 (if you accept the notion that she "won" Texas and Nevada even though Obama received 3 and 1 more delegates, respectively.
This is compared to Obama's 29 states won.
DELEGATES
Here are the pledged delegate numbers from RealClearPolitics:
Pledged Delegates (w/o MI/FL):
Obama: 1,415
Clinton: 1,251
Spread: Obama +164
Pledged Delegates (w MI/FL) !* (w/ MI uncommitted for Obama):
Obama: 1,537
Clinton: 1,429
Spread: Obama +108
Pledged Delegates (w MI/FL) !* (w/o MI uncommitted for Obama):
Obama: 1,482
Clinton: 1,429
Spread: Obama +53
As you can see from the above, depending on whether or not the MI uncommitteds are pledged to Obama, Obama is still head by either 53 or 108 pledged delegates.
CONCLUSION AND PLEA
As the above analysis shows, Obama will still be ahead in pledged delegates, popular vote and states won even if FL and MI are seated as described above.
As a result, can I make a personal plea to Hillary supporters here to simply debate on the facts and stop making the inaccurate claim that MI and FL would somehow magically make Sen. Clinton the "frontrunner"?
The release of this latest Gallup really takes us all to the BIG QUESTION.
What in the world kind of supposed Frontrunner do we have as Democrats ?
Lets look at some VERY DISTURBING facts from Gallup & results of this primary:
1)A strong percentage of his partymates want him to drop-out.
2) An even larger percentage of his very same democratic partymates will ABSOLUTELY NOT VOTE for HIM in November & many even plan to vote for his opponent McCain.
3)He has lost 7 of the 8 Largest Electoral College states in the country among his party mates. ( which All the matters in the General election Winner take all Electoral college count)
4)Or to be more direct, he has LOST 9 out of the 11 LARGEST Electoral College states in the country.
4) He is literally losing with his very own partymates among WHITE VOTERS at 65-35, among LATINO voters by 2 to 1, among ASIAN voters by 3 to 1, among Jewish voters by 2 to 1, and among Catholic voters by 2 to 1.
Did I miss something here? Are we attempting to elect a President of the United States of America or is he running to be President of the African-American community ?
How in the world can you expect this supposed Frontrunner
to win a National Election in November IF he cannot even carry ANY RACIAL or Ethnic Group WITHIN his own very party ?
A group of his partymates called democrats who HAPPEN to BE the MOST LIBERAL & OPEN group of Whites,Latinos,Asians, Jews & Catholics in america. Without a doubt, to the Left of White,Latino,Asian, Jewish & catholic registered Republicans!
So what the hell is WRONG with our Supposed Frontrunner?
No Poll, No Political Scientist, No Democratic Elder, No Expert Political Blogger NEEDS to Tell all of us that - ATTENTION DEMOCRATS - YOU HAVE A BIG BIG PROBLEM with your "SUPPOSED" FRONTRUNNER !
I don't claim to know what's wrong with him. But one thing I do now, this supposed Frontrunner of ours WILL LOSE this November 2008 my landslide margins NOT seen in over 20 years!
Democrats have to ask themselves. Are we trying to bring back memories of a Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis or our Democratic version of Barry Goldwater ?
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