So, I'm sure all of you have noticed that Obama is now winning the electoral college 328-210 in the counter on the main page.  How has he gotten this far ahead, after months of trailing by large margins on this site's counter?  Well, the curious methodology of this site had previously given us such odd results as Obama losing New York while winning North Dakota, but that can't entirely explain it.

Based upon polling data as expressed at electoral-vote.com on May 29th, Clinton is not only the safer candidate, winning even if only holding states trending weak and strong Democrat for her candidacy, but also showing less downside and more upside in potential electoral college votes.

__
Based upon the May 29th map from electoral-vote.com, a Clinton general election campaign would need to strongly fight in Michigan, a state she won in the primary process (caveat understood) and which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections, and that struggle could be lost with success still ensured for the general election.
__

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Cl inton/Maps/May29.html

__
The Clinton campaign would also be wise to protect its slim leads in three states, which it could also loose and still prevail in the general election:
__

   * one of which she lost in the primary process but which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (WA);
    * one of which she lost in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (MO); and
    * one of which she lost in the primary process but which has favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (CT).

__
The Clinton campaign could also fight for three weakly held McCain states, all of which would also be unnecessary but would allow for a more decisive victory:
__

   * one of which she lost in the primary process and which has weakly favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (CO);
    * one of which she lost in the primary process and which has flipped from Democrat to Republican in recent Presidential elections (IA); and
    * one of which she lost in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (WI).

http://www.mydd.com/evclinton

Clinton minimum map as of May 29th.
    Clinton = 309 vs. McCain = 229

Clinton maximum map as of May 29th.
    Clinton = 360 vs. McCain = 178

__
Based upon the May 29th map from electoral-vote.com, an Obama general election campaign would need to strongly fight in Virginia, a state he won in the primary process but which has favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections, and Indiana, a state he lost in the primary process and which has favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections, and those struggles would likely require one win to ensured success for the general election.
__

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Ob ama/Maps/May29.html

__
The Obama campaign would also be wise to protect its slim leads in two states, of which it likely needs both to still prevail in the general election:
__

   * one of which he lost in the primary process and which has flipped from Democrat to Republican in recent Presidential elections (NM); and
    * one of which he lost in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (OH).

__
The Obama campaign could also fight for four weakly held McCain states, some of which it may need to still prevail in the general election:
__

   * one of which he won in the primary process but has marginally favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (MO);
    * one of which he won in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (WI);
    * one of which he lost in the primary process (caveat understood) but which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (MI); and
    * one of which he won in the primary process but has favored Republicans in recent  Presidential elections (SC).

http://www.mydd.com/evobama

Obama minimum map as of May 29th.
    Obama = 241 vs. McCain = 297

Obama maximum map as of May 29th.
    Obama = 336 vs. McCain = 202

After her overwhelming victory in West Virginia in which she made Obama look like a rookie, instead of a "presumptive nominee," Clinton is poised once again to thump Barack Obama in another Appalachian Primary.
Hillary to trounce Obama in Kentucky

The lastest polls from Kentucky indicate she will repeat the landslide victory she enjoyed in the neighboring state of West Virginia, despite the Edwards endorsement for Obama which was expected anyway. With 1.6 million voters expected to go to the polls, it is looking like another big popular vote night for Clinton. She is well on her way to winning the overall popular vote, and is expected to overtake Obama after the Puerto Rico primary is counted.
Kentucky is Clinton Country

Hillary has also received the endorsements of four of Kentucky's former Governors as well as hundreds of state and local officials, her campaign has reported today. Despite the insistence by both the media and Obama supporters that "it's over for Clinton", she continues to receive important endorsements from across the nation. Therefore, in retrospect this campaign is not "over" until it is "over" which won't be until June 3 as far as Hillary is concerned.
Kentucky Endorses Clinton

Keep a close eye on what happens on May 31 in Washington D.C. when the bylaws committee convenes to decide the fate of the delegates and votes in Michigan and Florida. We may in fact be very surprised by the decision of that committee, one that the Obama folks may find very disheartening. Word has it that the Clinton campaign has enough votes on that committee to seat all delegates and count all votes. In which case things will look much different since the delegate tally will be 2209 and not 2026.

That brings us to the reasons that the media has published as to why Clinton should get out. They are not worth the paper they are printed on. Rather the media should examine their infactuation with Obama and look at the numbers that really matter come November.

1) "BEHIND IN PLEDGES DELEGATES AND THE MATH IS UNFAVORABLE"    
Her opponent's lead in pledged delegates is slim and he can't win without super-delegates, but they think she should get out of the race. I seem to recall that the superdelegates and/or pledged delegates are free to change their minds or switch candidates at any time or for any reason, and there are many supers sitting on the fence until after June 3.

2) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE STATES"
Well that is true except for the fact that many of those states are Republican strongholds and several were caucus states and we know how they vote. Say we give Obama Oregon, SD and Montana, and give Hillary Kentucky according to what is expected in those primaries, and let's list them for our entertainment.  

OBAMA STATES(30)      
Alaska                    
Idaho                    
Utah                      
North Dakota              
Nebraska                  
Kansas                    
Colorado                  
Wyoming                  
Hawaii                    
Minnesota                
Wisconsin                
Missouri                
Iowa                      
Louisiana                
Mississippi              
Alabama                  
Georgia                  
South Carolina          
North Carolina          
Virginia                  
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Maine
Vermont
Washington
Oregon
South Dakota
Montana

CLINTON STATES(20)
California
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Michigan                    
Ohio                  
Indiana
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Rhode Island  
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Florida
Kentucky  

NOTE: Of the 30 states that Obama has or is projected to win, (15) are Deep Red states that will vote for McCain in November for a total of 96 electoral votes. (11) are Deep Blue states for a total of 92 electoral votes including DC. Only (4) are considered Swing States, that being Colorado,Virginia,Iowa,and Missouri, for a total of 39 electoral votes. So you can see for yourself, that even if Obama were to win all of those primary or caucus states in the GE, if would still only add up to 227 electoral votes.

NOTE: Of the 20 states that Clinton has or is projected to win, only (6) are Deep Red states that would vote for McCain in November for a total of 79 Electoral votes. (5) are Deep Blue states for a total of 118 electoral votes. (9) are considered as swing states, that being, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida for a total of 111 electoral votes. Of the primary states that Clinton has won she would have enough electoral votes to win the general election or a total of 308 electoral votes.

Therefore, Clinton has a very strong argument to make regarding the swing states she has won in crucial areas of the country as compared to the few swing states he has won. Hillary Clinton has won primaries in the large Democratic base states of New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all industrial states with large numbers of electoral votes that a Democrat must win in November. Obama's argument that he has won more states means very little when you compare apples to oranges.

3) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE POPULAR VOTES"
This is true so far in this election, but Clinton is projected to catch up and overtake Obama after the Primary season wraps up on June 3. Clinton may surpass her opponent in popular votes, but they say she should get out. Democrats in Michigan and Florida, two states key to victory in November and strongly in Clinton's column, did not have any chance to express their will, and still people call for her to get out.

4) "CLINTON ISN'T CONNECTING WITH BLACK VOTERS"
Maybe so, but still her opponent's supporters and many in the media think she should get out of the race even though she consistently wins among women, Catholics, seniors, Hispanics and blue-collar voters, all key elements of the Democratic coalition.

5) "OBAMA IS GAINING MORE SUPERDELEGATES"
The endorsements that Obama has received since Clinton's big win in Pennsylvania, were superdelegates that for all practical purposes were planning to endorse Obama from the beginning and came as no surprise. Still there are many more waiting on the sidelines. Will there be a June surprise? I might note that even in Indiana, where Clinton carried 83 of 92 counties, U.S. Rep. Baron Hill endorsed her opponent while she carried every county in his district except one.

Looking at the real numbers, maybe it is Obama that should get out of the race. Clinton will certainly be the stronger opponent against McCain in November.

Clinton's Crushing Victory Enlightens Obama's Weaknesses

I know there's already been discussion of the latest SUSA poll of North Carolina showing Obama with 49% and Hillary with 44%.  Discussion of it was based on television reports, I believe.  Well the poll with all the crosstabs is now available at the SUSA website.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b2 5b3435

After Obama's devastating defeat in Pennsylvania, the Obama campaign released a memo addressed to the superdelegates but published in the Wall Street Journal which argues that Obama would be the strongest candidate in the Fall against McCain. The memo is so deeply flawed that Jerome Armstrong ridicules it as "satire," and "exhibit A" for "intellectual dishonesty":

I don't know that I've ever seen anything a campaign poll memo that so obviously cherry-picks polls over the last 4 months to make their case. It's almost satire. Some rookie mailed it in on behalf of the Obama campaign's "memo to the superdelegates". I couldn't imagine a known political blogger creating this list, and not being laughed and mocked out of the blogosphere.

Jerome's previous post cherry picks data to the same extent that Markos does at dkos. It's intellectually dishonest and both of them should stop it.

An alternate approach would be to take ALL of the state head-to head matchups on Pollster.com and see where the chips fall. It includes all of the states (except Kentucky) that Jerome includes in his analysis plus several others which he just happened to leave out. Not having Kentucky isn't a big deal since both candidates lose to McCain. The state-by-state analysis is in the extended entry.

I said before the Ohio primary that the big question for superdelegates would be, "did Obama peak in February, and go downhill from there?"  Obama got a huge bump from January through March based upon his incredible charisma, his speaking skills, his freshness and, quite frankly, his not being Hillary.  But the real question was always could he maintain it through November, and the test would be can he maintain it through June.  If it was a wave that would peak, superdelegates are obligated to note that, even if it means going against the pledged delegate count.  Why do I say that?  Because the pledged delegate count is no more democratic than superdelegates.  Both are part of the system, and they mutually support each other.

So I've updated Survey USA's Electoral College prediction based on updated results in 14 states.  The results:

Hillary Clinton 292
John McCain 236
Tie 10

John McCain 296
Barack Obama 242

Based on "Electoral Math" by SUSA (Obama, Clinton) released March 6, 2008 and modified using updated results from 15 states released March 19 and 20 and 14 more states released April 17.

Maps below the fold