Happy election day! Are you voting? What's the buzz on the ground? What's the turnout like? Here is a round-up of the more high-profile races being decided today:
In Kentucky, the Ernie Fletcher/Steve Beshear showdown is finally upon us. Democratic challenger Beshear goes into election day with a double digit lead over the incumbent and as TPM alerts us, the GOP is getting desperate.
Just yesterday, in an effort to boost his prospects among conservative voters, Fletcher put up a display containing the Ten Commandments in the state Capitol Rotunda, and a robocall from Pat Boone is warning that Beshears will work for "every homosexual cause."Now comes word of a second anti-Beshear robocall with an anti-gay-themed message. This one purports to be from an actual gay rights organization in Kentucky and touts Beshears' support for "the homosexual lobby." But the group, Fairness.org, denies any being responsible for the call. The Fletcher campaign also denies any involvement.
This sounds to me to be all very 2004. Does this shit still work? We'll get a sense today. Local blog Bluegrass Report doesn't think it will and predicts a 61%-39% Beshear blowout. Would love to see Kentuckians send such a loud and clear message today.
Religion is playing a part in the Mississippi gubernatorial race as well where Democratic challenger John Arthur Eaves, Jr. has tried to puncture the goodwill Barbour received as a result of his response to Hurricane Katrina by tying Barbour to corruption.
Barbour's opponent, Democratic trial lawyer John Arthur Eaves Jr., quoted Scripture when he accused the governor of being beholden to "moneychangers" such as big tobacco, oil and insurance companies through his old Washington lobbying firm.Barbour responded in a recent debate by reciting a passage from the Book of Daniel in which a hand appears out of nowhere to write a message on the wall of the temple in Babylon. If another hand appeared and wrote out a denial of Eaves' allegations, Barbour said, "that wouldn't be good enough for my opponent."
Conventional wisdom has it that Barbour will skate to an easy re-election.
In Virginia, hundreds of local races are being decided, the most significant of which will be in the state senate where Democrats need a net gain of just 4 seats to win control. Marc Ambinder puts the Democrats' chances this way:
Democrats are poised to take control of the State Senate (unless immigration gets in their way, which is possible).
If immigration is going to be a thorn in the side of Democrats next year, Virginia may tell us today. WaPo has more on what voters will be deciding today:
Voters will signal what direction government should take on such high-profile issues as immigration policy, improving traffic and managing growth. Their choices will indicate whether they approve of a transportation plan devised last winter by Republican lawmakers that funnels hundreds of millions to Northern Virginia roads and transit system but imposes steep new fees on the state's worst drivers. And in races in which candidates have focused on immigration policy, they will indicate whether they want action on this emotional issue at the state and local level.
Polls in Virginia close at 7pm EST and as always, check out Raising Kaine for local coverage.
The AP has a rundown of some ballot measures that are being decided today as well:
Several states were voting on ballot measures, including a Utah proposal that would create the nation's first statewide school voucher program open to all families. If approved, the plan would grant $500 to $3,000, depending on income, for each child sent to private school. Unlike other voucher plans geared toward low-income students or those in failing schools, Utah's plan would be available to anyone, even affluent families in well-performing districts.Oregon voters considered a measure to raise the cigarette tax by 84.5 cents a pack -- to $2.02 -- to fund health insurance for about 100,000 children now lacking coverage. Tobacco companies opposing the plan have outspent supporters by a 4-1 margin, contributing nearly $12 million.
New Jersey voters were deciding a referendum authorizing the state to borrow $450 million over 10 years to finance stem cell research. The Roman Catholic Church and anti-abortion groups opposed the measure, which was placed on the ballot by the Legislature with strong backing from Gov. Jon Corzine.
Check out Swing State Project for a more comprehensive list of races to watch and each state's poll closing times.
What races are you watching today?
Update [2007-11-6 12:50:48 by Todd Beeton]: Progressive Majority is doing some excellent and largely unheralded work at the local level around the country. Check out a rundown of all the great progressive candidates whose races will be decided today HERE.
With less than three months and three debates away before the first Democratic primary, it's time to tell Mike Gravel, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and either Chris Dodd or Joe Biden, whoever is third from the bottom in most polls, they can no longer attend the upcoming debates. Actually, it's time `they' made that decision for voters.
Today, voters in California's 37th, a district that includes parts of Long Beach extending up to Compton and much of South Los Angeles, will be going to the polls to elect a new representative to congress. The seat has been vacant since the death of Democratic Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald of cancer in April. The seat is safe Democratic.
There are 18 candidates on the ballot but 2 have emerged as the front-runners: state Senator Jenny Oropeza and Assemblywoman Laura Richardson (Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald's daughter Valerie McDonald is running as well but is far behind in money and endorsements.)
There are a couple of interesting dynamics at play. First, there's race. The diverse district has traditionally been represented in Congress by an African-American but this year, with the strength of Sen. Oropeza's campaign, we may see the first hispanic elected from this district, signaling the growing influence of the hispanic electorate in Southern California. Hispanics make up 20% of CA-37 voters, while 25% are black. The LA Times cites a poll that shows that Oropeza, an hispanic, may benefit from the presence of Valerie McDonald in the race, as she and Richardson, both African-American, may split the black vote.
Another dynamic that is at play here is the influence of tribal gaming money vs. the old fashioned on the ground organizing that comes with labor support. Juls at calitics has the story:
State Senator Jenny Oropeza, as dday detailed on Saturday, has been the beneficiary of over $270,000 in independent spending from the Morongo Band of Mission Indians. The tribe has dropped mailers, door hangers, newspaper ads and called voters in a push to repay Oropeza for voting for the massive gaming expansion. That vote was one factor for the LA County Labor Federation's support of Assemblywoman Laura Richardson. They are spending their money on member to member communication, urging the members of their local affiliated unions to vote for Richardson.
Oropeza's vote to expand the number of slot machines at the Morongo Casino was widely seen as a swipe at labor because the compacts do not include provisions to allow workers to fully organize and collectively bargain.
While Oropeza enjoys support from the Morongo tribe and the California Democratic Party, as well as local hispanic groups, Richardson has the backing of Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) and the California Legislative Black Caucus in addition to the influential LA County Labor Federation. The race is considered too close to call.
Polls close at 8pm tonight and the winner must take 50% of the vote to avoid an August 21 run-off.
Update [2007-6-26 17:13:24 by Todd Beeton]: Thanks to dblhelix in the comments for clarifying that the run-off in August (if necessary) will be between the top vote getters of each party. In other words, today's winner will be the next representative from CA-37.And on the racial make-up of the district, from The Hill:
The district...[has] 25 percent black registered voters to 22 percent Latinos, Jeffe said. She also noted that Latinos are 43 percent of the district’s population to 25 percent for blacks. Turnout is expected to be as low as 10 percent today.
I compiled all this, mostly today, to help non-political junkies follow along on Election Night. I haven't listed all the contests on the November 7th ballot by far--just those that are close/competitive, largely the ones to watch to see which party will control the US House and Senate in 2007-08. Feel free to share this as you wish. I'll email folks the document in Word format (5 1/2 pages) with better formatting and the candidates color-coded upon request. The broadcast media tends to cover statewide races (Governors and senators) far better than House races, but the ones I've listed are more or less the ones you should look out for. I hope people find this helpful. If there are any questions or corrections, let me know.
What is the DNC doing about caging, disenfranchisement and massive purging of Democratic voters from the rolls in Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia?
Polls are fun before election day. But the only one that counts is on November 7.
Why does the DNC talk about polls now when they aren't doing anything to prevent massive Democratic voter disenfranchisement in key states on election day?
The Diebold databases need to be injoined and the pre-October 1st/pre purge data bases used. The DNC NEEDS TO TAKE LEADERSHIP ON THIS ISSUE AND ORGANIZE THE DEMOCRATIC GROUND GAME TO RESIST MASSIVE DEMOCRATIC VOTER DISENFRANCHISEMENT IN KEY STATES ON ELECTION DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In their book "Off Center," Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson suggest a very simple way to increase voter participation: make Election Day a national holiday. A bank holiday.
If civic events were then organized around voting places, so that people off work could bring their kids and participate in games, concerts, lectures, conversations, or whatever the locals would be interested in, it would be a simple matter for them to spin off and vote.
Since the Republicans have limited the political activities groups like the League of Women Voters can engage in, here is a non-partisan project they could easily pull off with their devoted and skilled membership.
My wife and I took our four year old with us to vote today. I guess they don't see kids much at the polling place because as we signed in and got our ballots the poll workers (all elderly) started oohing and aahing and popping questions at her. When she told one of them her yellow dress was a present for her birthday, they asked her when it was. When she said, "Tomorrow," They all sang Happy Birthday to her (the polling place was for two precincts, so it was a ten person chorus.)
When I got my ballot, I took her to a booth and let her use the magic marker to fill in where I told her to. Then I let her put the ballot into the scanner which sucked it out of her hand lickity-split. She had a blast voting and I think is well on her way to becoming a good citizen. It was the most unique voting experience I'll probably ever have.
PS... She also asks me about Bush a lot -- especially his childhood. I try not to be too strong worded in my truth telling about him, but on the way home today she asked why he is such a bad man who lies and hurts people. I said I didn't know why some people are bad and asked her not to talk about Bush in her Pre-K class.
If I may engage in a little cheerleading of family efforts: my brother, Paul Smith, has a new product for all you democracy nerds out there, and even ordinary people who want elections to be about more than attack ads and campaign contributions: The Election Day Advent Calendar. Like the one you get at Christmas time, it's series of panels that you open each day leading up to the big day (in this case Election Day), but with this calendar, the panels reveal fascinating tidbits about the history and traditions of democracy in America.
Why should you buy it? As my brother and his colleague, Ben Helphand, note:
Gerrymander [their company] believes that our great nation deserves great civic rituals, as well as rituals to support and celebrate the other rituals, like voting. Voting has had a bit of a cough of late, so we thought it could use a little TLC, in the form of, you guessed it, an appropriated Christmas custom. Democracy has to be something more than punditry. We wanted to create an experience that would build excitement for Election Day, something to celebrate the right to vote while at the same time making something fun for the whole family.I would say any civic-minded person or organization should buy one of these, from political campaigns (of all parties), to teachers, to parents, and just about anyone who wants to brighten up their workplace or home with a reminder of what makes this country great: its people get to choose what direction it goes in.
And it's only 10 bucks, too; so if you can afford two of those ginormous frappucinos at Starbucks, or two extra value meals at McDonald's, you can afford this calendar. Go buy one!
-- Isaac Smith
Crossposted at the The Old Line.
· Schumer: 60 Dem Senators Possible (Josh Orton)
· Jindal Out (Josh Orton)
· Scalise and Kennedy Shilling for Big Oil (DailyKingFish)
· IA: Grassley and Christian conservatives at odds (desmoinesdem)
· Richardson tells McCain to stop whining (fbihop)
· OR-SEN: New DSCC/IE ad in Oregon (karichisholm)
· NM Dems GET the netroots; GOP not so much (fbihop)
· Louisiana House 2Q Fundraising #'s (DailyKingFish)
· OR-SEN: Merkley's Netroots Nation video (karichisholm)
· AK-Sen: New Begich Ad (Matt Browner Hamlin)
· Not a Bad Cover for Obama in Colorado (Jonathan Singer)
· Chris Matthews: Open Up Your Hearts (Jonathan Singer)