I don't know if any of you remember a guy back in 2004 named "Tom Daschle."  He was a good guy.  Our majority leader in the Senate.

Then came November.   The party's leader in the Senate was gone, replaced with Harry Reid.  Ugh.   It was bad enough that Bush won reelection, but the Republicans also routed one of our best and brightest from gaining reelection.  It was a second defeat in the same night.

Survey USA, which has been remarkably reliable this cycle at the presidential level, has a new poll out of Illinois' 14th (conducted for Roll Call) showing Democrat Bill Foster ahead of Republican Jim Oberweis by 7 points two days out from Saturday's special election. Brownsox brings us the subscription-only Roll Call story:

The House seat recently vacated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is in danger of flipping to the Democrats in Saturday's special election, according to a poll conducted this week for Roll Call.

In the poll of 517 likely special election voters, conducted by Survey USA exclusively for Roll Call on March 3 and 4, physicist Bill Foster (D) led dairy company executive Jim Oberweis (R) 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a 4.4-point margin of error.

Foster appeared to test particularly well with women and independent voters, who preferred him by a 3-2 margin. The survey also suggested Foster had locked down his party's base, taking 97 percent of likely Democratic votes and perhaps stealing 10 percent of likely GOP votes.

If these numbers hold up on Saturday, the return on investment for the NRCC will be sad indeed. As Jonathan wrote yesterday:

Crunching out the math, then, the $1.2 million the NRCC has had to spend defending this Republican seat in a Republican district amounts to 29.2 percent of the committee's net cash-on-hand, or nearly a third. In contrast, the D-trip has spent about 3.0 percent of its net cash-on-hand on the race.

An Oberweis loss, especially of this magnitude, could mean the end of Rep. Tom Cole's, er, distinguished tenure as chair of the NRCC and will be seen as a sign of things to come in the fall for Republicans in red or purple at best districts (IL-14 has a PVI of R+5.) It also serves as the first test case for how Obama's message and endorsement (see his ad for Foster here) may trickle down to the congressional level in November. Granted, Illinois's demographics are shifting and Obama is the hometown senator, but this is a district that Bush won 55-44 in 2004 and Hastert won 60-40 in 2006.

Update [2008-3-6 17:23:46 by Todd Beeton]:Per Dick Durbin's dailyKos diary, contribute to keep the Obama ad on the air for the next 48 hours HERE.

I know the eyes of the world are on Iowa today, but here in Illinois, we were just treated to this bombshell from a local paper:

Election officials in at least seven Illinois counties plan to ask a federal court to intervene because they believe the dates set by Gov. Rod Blagojevich for a special primary and special general election will not give them time to meet federal and state statutes that govern elections.

The election is to replace Hastert, who has retired.  The special primary is set for February 5 and the special general March 8.  From the story it appears that the objection from the counties comes not to the primary date but to the March 8 special general date.

Many of the Fermilab community who volunteer for John Laesch for Congress contacted our office On Tuesday, Dec. 18, to alert us of the devastating cuts to high energy physics that came in the House Omnibus Appropriations bill that was passed on Monday, Dec. 17, 2007.

They were rightly concerned because the bill slashes $90 million in funding for High Energy Physicis projects, including $62 million at Fermi National Laboratory (located in IL-14). You can get details by reading Fermilab's internal newsletter, Fermilab Today.

The $555 billion bill gives George Bush another blank check worth $70 Billion to continue the occupation of Iraq.  Sadly, there was no accountability or a specific timetable attached to the additional Iraq occupation funding.

I guess lawmakers will be returning to their districts this Christmas break with lots of pork while our soldiers serving in Iraq are enjoying sand and MRE's.  

So, a couple of weeks ago, I was in a public place, right here in St. Charles, Illinois, when I overheard a conversation that alarmed, but failed to surprise, me.  The person doing most of the talking was -talking- complaining bitterly about her new job in an area public elementary school.  Not a St. Charles school and not an educator.  She's a peripheral professional who has frequent contact with children however, and that's bad enough.

Her major complaint?  "All these Hispanic children."

According to her, not only are "all these Hispanic children" unable to communicate, they are "aggressive and obnoxiously rude - especially the girls."  I was supposed to be paying attention to what the person in front of me was saying and lost some of the conversation I was overhearing, but suspect her companion must have voiced some objections, because she started trying to -explain herself- dig herself in deeper.

After a few false starts, looks like Dennis Hastert's going to make his resignation official tonight, at 11:59pm CST to be exact. His resignation letter to Governor Blagojevich explains why now.

I have chosen this date because I have been advised that it allows you sufficient time to call a special primary to select candidates to run to fill my unexpired term on Feb. 5, 2008, an already established primary day. This will minimize inconvenience to the voters and expense to the counties of the 14th Congressional District.

Aww, ain't he considerate. Of course, he couldn't let the opportunity go without getting a pot calling the kettle black dig in at those darn partisans across the aisle.

"I wanted to get some energy policy done, but everything is being done behind closed doors on a partisan basis," Hastert told the Tribune. "You know, it seems to get tougher as we move into a presidential election year, and so I figured it was time for me to go out and live the rest of my life."

Since this will be a special primary election and I'm unsure as to whether the top two vote getters or the top vote getter from each party will go on to the general (I suspect the latter,) it's not clear exactly what Barack Obama's presence on the same ballot will have on the election (for example, will he endorse?) but certainly the excitement Barack has inspired among Illinois Democrats in general should translate to a very engaged electorate come November, which will make it all the more difficult for the Republicans to hold onto this PVI R+4 seat. (Charlie Cook currently lists the open seat as "Likely Republican" retention -- I wouldn't be surprised if he upgrades it to "Leans Republican" after today.)

As for who will be competing in the primary, Howie Klein at Down With Tyranny breaks down the field of contenders.

There are 4 Republicans-- Chris Lauzen, Jim Oberweis, Kevin Burns and Michael Dilger-- and 4 Democrats-- John Laesch, Jotham Stein, Blue Dog Bill Foster, and Joe Serra-- are vying to take his place.

As for who Howie is supporting, he pulls no punches.

John Laesch is the progressive, grassroots candidate in this race and he is poised to turn another red district bright blue. Rahm Emanuel and the forces of reaction within the Democratic Insider Establishment are pushing for NAFTA-supporter xenophobe Blue Dog Bill Foster, who promises to embody everything that has been wrong with the Democratically controlled Congress this year. John, on the other hand, is a candidate who will effectively revamp the progressive movement in Congress.

John Laesch received 40% of the vote against Hastert, the sitting House speaker, last year. Hopefully he can parlay his organization and name recognition into a primary win in February but the fact that the field didn't clear for him makes clear just what a fight he's in for.

In the meantime, good riddance, Denny. Don't let the door hit ya...

It feels like deja vu, but this time it looks as though Dennis Hastert will finally make his intention to leave congress early official in a speech on the floor of the House.

From CNN's Political Ticker:

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert is expected to announce Thursday on the House floor that he is retiring from Congress, a senior aide to the congressman told CNN Wednesday.

The aide said that Hastert will announce his plans to retire tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. in an address on the House floor. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office provided the floor time to the former speaker to address his colleagues.

As for when he will be stepping down, that will remain a mystery.

"His plan is to make his farewell address tomorrow on the House floor," the aide said. "He is then going to decide at some point this year when he will step down."

The aide said the effective date of Hastert's resignation not yet been determined.

He's really milking this for all it's worth.

The practical ramifications of Hastert's resignation are that there will be a special election to replace him. Swing State Project filled us in on how that would work back in October:

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich has 5 days from Hastert's last day in office to set a date for the special election, which must take place within 115 days.  Depending on the time line of Hastert's decision, we could see a special election coinciding with the state's February 5th primary.

Hastert has a stake in its not being on February 5th, of course, namely that turnout among Democrats will be off the charts that day due to Barack Obama's placement on the ballot. This district may be red (PVI of R+5,) but it is getting bluer and in a perfect storm special election like this, this race has a serious chance of becoming a Dem pick-up and Hastert knows it.

Last year, John Laesch, who is one of several Democrats running for the seat this year, mounted a valiant challenge against Hastert earning 40% of the vote. Without Hastert in the race, the Democrat's share can be expected to rise considerably.

Roll Call is reporting Dennis Hastert will announce his resignation tomorrow:

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is expected to announce Thursday that he is resigning his seat in Congress effective later this year, eventually setting up a special election to succeed him, knowledgeable GOP sources said late Wednesday.

Swing State Project has more.

John Laesch would love another run for the seat (he garnered 40%  in 2006) but he already has a few challengers. The fact that this is going to be a special election will make this very interesting.