(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Wow! Just wow. I've been perusing the FEC filings for the 2nd Quarter today. And you know what?

Democrats rock... Especially our terrific candidates here in California!

In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms.  But so far, it's been all over the map.  I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.

First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill.  They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.

Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.

On Sunday I had the pleasure of attending an event hosted by my congressman Adam Schiff (CA-29) at which he introduced local grassroots activists and leaders to four of the Democratic challengers being supported by his USA PAC. These races may not be on your radar but they should be.

AZ-03
Democratic challenger: Bob Lord
Republican incumbent: John Shadegg

You may recall Shadegg's name, he's the guy who retired in February only to return to the race 10 days later after pressure from leadership. But considering Shadegg has been tainted by accusations illegal campaign finance dealings, his remaining on the ballot may end up being the best thing that ever happened to Bob Lord.

When I spoke with Bob on Sunday, one of the things that impressed me was his command of polling and statistics within the district, which, by the way, happens to be John McCain's home district. While there was no word on head-to-head numbers,  , it's clear that Shadegg's vulnerable. A few polling tidbits Lord shared with us:

• John Shadegg has a 31% re-elect
• John McCain is polling only 5% ahead of Barack Obama here...and may I repeat, it's McCain's home district
• 28% of registered voters in the district are independents and 90% of them say the country is on the wrong track

Bush received 58% of the AZ-03 vote in 2004, which, notably, is a lower share of the vote than he received in either MS-01 or LA-06 where Democrats won in special elections this year.

CA-26
Democratic challenger: Russ Warner
Republican incumbent: David Dreier

Sunday's meeting was actually held in CA-26 so Russ was the hometown hero of the group. A successful small business owner, Russ has lived in the district for 30 years, as he likes to remind people, ever since Dreier was first elected 28 years ago. Russ came to run for congress after a conversation with his son, Greg, who had just returned from Iraq. At the end of the conversation, Russ's son said "Dad, if you feel that way then you should run for congress and change it" and so Russ promised he would and this campaign is the fulfillment of that promise.

Warner actually first ran in 2006 but suffered a surprise loss in the primary, so this year was determined to do things differently and so far it's paid off. Russ has raised an impressive amount of money, has received endorsements from the state party as well as local members of congress and on June 3, dispatched Dreier's 2006 opponent in the primary by a 2 to 1 margin.

Russ will be David Dreier's first really serious challenger since the district was redrawn after the 2000 census. The district has a PVI of R+4 having gone for Bush over Kerry 55%-44% in 2004 but there are some signs of life for Democrats in the district: Barbara Boxer actually won the district by a hair in 2004 and more people voted in the Democratic presidential primary in February than voted in the Republican primary.

This race may not be on The Cook Political Report's radar but it has been targeted by the DCCC and David Dayen of calitics sees the race as one of just two among the top tier of potential California Dem pick-up opportunities.

As Adam Schiff said on Sunday:

"This is going to be a Democratic district, the only question is when."

CA-50
Democratic challenger: Nick Leibham
Republican incumbent: Brian Bilbray

This seat, you may recall, was formerly held by jailbird Republican Duke Cunningham but Cunningham was convicted before the 2006 election, so Democrat Francine Busby lost in this R+4 district to untainted carpetbagger Brian Bilbray by 9 points.

Nick Leibham, a former prosecutor, recently won the primary to run against Bilbray and shared with us some poll numbers of his own: Bilbray's re-elect is at 42% and a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican by 4 points. Essentially, this means the district is ready to elect a Democrat, they just need to get to know Leibham. He made a point of saying that he would not have a shot without the massive grassroots outreach and infrastructure that Francine Busby built in 2006.

This is a real opportunity for Democrats this year. The race has been targeted by the DCCC and Cook Political Report considers it competitive, albeit still "likely Republican."

NV-02
Democratic challenger: Jill Derby
Republican incumbent: Dean Heller

I'd have to say Jill Derby was a big hit on Sunday. She has a very appealing no-nonsense style in person and seems to be running her campaign in a similar manner. Derby is unapologetically running against the war, having endorsed the Responsible Plan and vowing:

"Nevadans are tired of Dean Heller walking in lockstep with the Bush Administration on what has proven to be a failed strategy for Iraq," Derby said in a statement.

This is Derby's second shot at Heller, having lost to him by just 5% in 2006 in a district that Kerry lost by 16% in 2004. NV-02 is the third largest (geographically) congressional district in the country encompassing virtually the entire state of Nevada outside of Las Vegas. Derby expects the organization and excitement that January's presidential caucus inspired this year to make the difference for her this year (in fact, since 2006 the Republican registration advantage in the district has shrunk by 35%.) You'll recall that it was this district where Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton and ended up winning more delegates out of the day even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. John McCain on the other hand didn't even compete in Nevada.

Update [2008-6-12 18:20:23 by Todd Beeton]:By the way, Schiff's USA-PAC has actually endorsed 8 Democrats in '08; the other four are Charlie Brown in CA-04, Gary Trauner in WY-AL, Harry Mitchell in AZ-05 and Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01.

The North County Times is now confirming what the Busby campaign and the blogger have known for a couple of weeks now...

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/10/ 27/election2006/sandiego/20_50_4910_26_0 6.txt

cross-posted from Calitics: the progressive community blog for California.

Brian Bilbray has been very quiet recently. Yeah, he's heavily favored in CA-50 in the rematch with Francine Busby, but still you'd think he'd show up somewhere, anywhere in his district.  But, according to Words Have Power, he's been hiding out.  He's not been updating his web site, and he failed to show up at an AARP-sponsored debate. Strange.

Or maybe not so strange. According to the San Diego County Democratic Party, Bilbray is being investigated a grand jury impaneled by the District Attorney.  Follow me over the flip.

Brian Bilbray has never made a secret of his contempt for California's 50th district. During a landfill controversy in the early nineties, a Bilbray aide said, "The trash can pile up on the streets of North County, as far as Brian is concerned." In fact, Bilbray refuses to even live in the district he says he's representing.

"With the nation at war against global terrorism, I cannot think of a more important time to serve on committees like Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs. My top priorities will continue to be supporting our troops and winning the war on terror," said Brian Bilbray. Unfortunately, even in the short time he's been back in Congress, lobbyist Bilbray's deeds don't match his words.

By Chris Bowers, Rick Jacobs, Matt Stoller and Joel Wright

To: Democratic Congressional Challengers
Re: CA-50 Post-Special Election (Busby-Bilbray) Polling Memo

Fall Election Environment Overview:
This fall, you will face a grotesque political environment, one that requires strategic knowledge, great courage and fortitude to successfully navigate. Facing low approval ratings, Republicans will introduce you to the voters as a flip-flopping, gay-loving, liberal terrorist coddler who wants to cut and run from Iraq, all at the behest of self-absorbed Hollywood moguls and liberal elites.

The establishment Democrats have proven ineffective at combating this positioning, introducing empty slogans like `Together we can do better' that no one repeats or remembers, and policy proposals that few voters believe Democrats are capable of enacting. Most of the polling and advice you'll get from DC insiders and journalists will largely rehash bad information, false choices and irrelevant answers to poorly framed questions. If you take their advice, you will not make significant headway in convincing voters you are best to represent them. And when you lose, it'll be you who ran a bad campaign, not "them." Just ask Francine Busby how that works.

Perhaps worst of all, you will probably face some form of October surprise from the Republicans and your opponent: a game-changing event or message stream. And you will be blind-sided because establishment Democrats will be caught off-guard. Again. And you and your campaign will pay the price of their failure.

Realistically, when it comes to developing a winning position and messaging, you are on your own. Or rather, you are on your own, except that the voters - Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike - agree with the outrage that you feel towards the political system and agree that Republican leadership is the problem. Yet, voters will only vote for change if they know you can deliver on that change once elected.

So far, few believe that will happen, as our data in CA-50 show.