If you enjoy statistical analysis of elections at all, you really need to check out Poblano's site. The links below are a look at what he terms as "the Unity Bounce" which either candidate could earn after we have a nominee. I obviously take no credit for this, or even for finding this (it's on Politico, DK, and of course Poblano's statistically oriented blog is no slouch), but I didn't see it here yet. It's really cool and it makes me really excited about November. Also reminds me how powerful we (democrats) will be if we can work together.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/c lintons-unity-bounce.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/c ontemplating-unity-bounce.html
The Scripture tells us that when Joshua and the Israelites arrived at the gates of Jericho, they could not enter. The walls of the city were too steep for any one person to climb; too strong to be taken down with brute force. And so they sat for days, unable to pass on through.
But God had a plan for his people. He told them to stand together and march together around the city, and on the seventh day he told them that when they heard the sound of the ram's horn, they should speak with one voice. And at the chosen hour, when the horn sounded and a chorus of voices cried out together, the mighty walls of Jericho came tumbling down.
New polls out of NH. Short polling periods and are by ARG and Rasmussen, so they can be taken with a grain of salt... although I have heard ARG, being a NH company, is much better there than in other states... such as Iowa.
American Res. Group 01/04 - 01/05 600 LV
Obama 38
Clinton 26
Edwards 20
Rasmussen 01/04 - 01/04 510 LV
Obama 37
Clinton 27
Edwards 19
Full results on RCP or individual sites!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/
2008/president/new_hampshire-primary.htm
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I'm always skeptical of polling, but it does appear Obama received a nice bounce. Tonight's debate becomes more critical both for Edwards and Clinton to slow Obama's momentum and for Obama not to make any major gaffes and lost the momentum.
I received this email from Obama today. I know some have said that they can't understand why the Obama campaign hasn't done anything to reach out to its grassroots support. Some have called his campaign Top-Down. Frankly, I have always seen his campaign as two seperate ones... There is a top-down campaign that will be run as a traditional style heavy advertising campaign. But then, as evidenced by the empowering tools of my.barackobama.com, there is also a strong Bottom-Up campaign as well. Will all the events and meetup that have been scheduled independent of the campaign so far, and garnering HUGE numbers of supporters at the events, the bottom-up grassroots tools have been a success.
There was still the criticism that Obama was not reaching out and utilizing the grassroots support. Most of his supporters, myself included, said to be patiend and give it time.
Well the time is at hand. March 31 marks his community kickoff. Below is the email I received today. Obama has been building his army of supporters and now is ready to start mobilizing them. The excitement is building in me now just typing this as I am sure it is for many Obama supporters. Lets work to build real change in our government.
If you are an Obama supporter and have not yet joined, please go to my.barackobama.org and sign up today!
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