A couple weeks ago, the DCCC revealed the 31 races they're targeting with $35 million worth of ad buys this fall (so far the time is just reserved, not bought.) The list consisted of 11 Democratic incumbents and one Dem open seat where the committee would be going on defense; the rest are seats currently held by the GOP.

We really have an embarrassment of riches this year, especially considering how many seats we took last cycle, but thanks to a plethora of GOP retirements and a favorable political environment for Democrats, whereas the DCCC's 2007 goal was to put 35-40 GOP seats in play, the 2008 reality is that there are actually 62 seats the DCCC considers competitive. So, it is not surprising to see the list of races where the DCCC is reserving ad time expand by 20 seats for a total of $53 million in 51 districts.

From Swing State Project:

AL-02 (Open): $598K
AL-05 (Open): $678K
AZ-08 (Giffords - D): $705K
CA-04 (Open) & CA-11 (McNerney - D): $2.03M
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen - R), FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart - R) and FL-25 (M. Diaz Balart - R): $1.4M
ID-01 (Sali - R): $349K
IL-10 (Kirk - R): $1.4M
IL-11 (Weller - R): $1.6M
IL-14 (Foster - D): $1.02M
LA-04 (Open): $714K
MO-06 (Graves - R): $798K
MS-01 (Childers - D): $1.06M
NJ-03 (Open): $1.7M
NY-25 (Open), NY-26 (Open), NY-29 (Kuhl - R): $2.7M
WA-08 (Reichert - R): $949,000

Chris Cilizza breaks it down:

When examining all 51 districts in which the DCCC has so far reserved ad time, 34 of the districts (66 percent) are Republican held while the remaining 17 are controlled by Democrats.

Unlike elections past, however, House Democrats are focusing as much on incumbents as open seats. Of the 34 Republican seats, 17 are open while 17 are held by members. That speaks to the treacherous national environment in which the GOP currently finds itself with a far larger number of incumbents in jeopardy than previous elections.

Great to see they intend to compete hard for Darcy, Charlie Brown and Eric Massa among others. And it's good to see the DCCC is as bullish on those 3 southern Florida seats as I am after meeting Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia at Netroots Nation.

Swing State Project has the full list of seats being targeted by the DCCC in $35 million worth of ads this fall.

AK-AL (Young): $586K
AZ-01 (OPEN): $1.7M
AZ-05 (Mitchell - D): $1.7M
CO-04 (Musgrave - R): $667K
CT-04 (Shays - R): $697K
FL-16 (Mahoney - D): $1.5M
FL-24 (Feeney - R): $1M
IN-09 (Hill - D): $1.6M
KS-02 (Boyda - D): $1.2M
KY-03 (Yarmuth - D): $659K
LA-06 (Cazayoux - D): $723K
MI-07 (Walberg - R): $1.5M
MI-09 (Knollenberg - R): $1.1M
MN-03 (OPEN): $1.4M
MO-09 (OPEN): $941K
NC-08 (Hayes - R): $1.6M
NH-01 (Shea-Porter - D) $564K
NJ-07 (OPEN): $1.8M
NM-01 (OPEN): $1.3M
NM-02 (OPEN): $1.2M
NV-03 (Porter - R): $916K
NY-13 (OPEN): $1.3M
OH-01 (Chabot): $928K
OH-15 (OPEN): $1.2M
OH-16 (OPEN): $1.3M
OR-05 (OPEN): $1.2M
PA-04 (Altmire - D): $554K
TX-22 (Lampson - D): $1.1M
TX-23 (Rodriguez - D): $707K
VA-11 (OPEN): $1.3M
WI-08 (Kagen - D): $475K

Real Clear Politics breaks it down:

In total, the DCCC has reserved $12 million to protect their own incumbents and Hooley's open seat. The nine Republican incumbents will be targeted with up to $9 million in total spending, while the DCCC has reserved another $13.5 million for Republican-held open seats.

As SSP points out, this list reflects ad time that's been reserved, not bought, so the list may evolve over time. And I hope it does. While only 12 of the 31 targeted seats are currently held by Democrats, as a percentage, that's pretty high considering the environment in which Democrats are running this year. There are plenty more GOP seats that should be on this list, CA-04 and WA-08 come immediately to mind. I look forward to seeing more seats added to this list as we get closer to November. What should be remembered is that this list is simply what the DCCC was comfortable making public and putting the GOP on notice. As of the end of May, the DCCC had a $40m cash advantage over the NRCC and it's good to see them flaunting it.

On Sunday I had the pleasure of attending an event hosted by my congressman Adam Schiff (CA-29) at which he introduced local grassroots activists and leaders to four of the Democratic challengers being supported by his USA PAC. These races may not be on your radar but they should be.

AZ-03
Democratic challenger: Bob Lord
Republican incumbent: John Shadegg

You may recall Shadegg's name, he's the guy who retired in February only to return to the race 10 days later after pressure from leadership. But considering Shadegg has been tainted by accusations illegal campaign finance dealings, his remaining on the ballot may end up being the best thing that ever happened to Bob Lord.

When I spoke with Bob on Sunday, one of the things that impressed me was his command of polling and statistics within the district, which, by the way, happens to be John McCain's home district. While there was no word on head-to-head numbers,  , it's clear that Shadegg's vulnerable. A few polling tidbits Lord shared with us:

• John Shadegg has a 31% re-elect
• John McCain is polling only 5% ahead of Barack Obama here...and may I repeat, it's McCain's home district
• 28% of registered voters in the district are independents and 90% of them say the country is on the wrong track

Bush received 58% of the AZ-03 vote in 2004, which, notably, is a lower share of the vote than he received in either MS-01 or LA-06 where Democrats won in special elections this year.

CA-26
Democratic challenger: Russ Warner
Republican incumbent: David Dreier

Sunday's meeting was actually held in CA-26 so Russ was the hometown hero of the group. A successful small business owner, Russ has lived in the district for 30 years, as he likes to remind people, ever since Dreier was first elected 28 years ago. Russ came to run for congress after a conversation with his son, Greg, who had just returned from Iraq. At the end of the conversation, Russ's son said "Dad, if you feel that way then you should run for congress and change it" and so Russ promised he would and this campaign is the fulfillment of that promise.

Warner actually first ran in 2006 but suffered a surprise loss in the primary, so this year was determined to do things differently and so far it's paid off. Russ has raised an impressive amount of money, has received endorsements from the state party as well as local members of congress and on June 3, dispatched Dreier's 2006 opponent in the primary by a 2 to 1 margin.

Russ will be David Dreier's first really serious challenger since the district was redrawn after the 2000 census. The district has a PVI of R+4 having gone for Bush over Kerry 55%-44% in 2004 but there are some signs of life for Democrats in the district: Barbara Boxer actually won the district by a hair in 2004 and more people voted in the Democratic presidential primary in February than voted in the Republican primary.

This race may not be on The Cook Political Report's radar but it has been targeted by the DCCC and David Dayen of calitics sees the race as one of just two among the top tier of potential California Dem pick-up opportunities.

As Adam Schiff said on Sunday:

"This is going to be a Democratic district, the only question is when."

CA-50
Democratic challenger: Nick Leibham
Republican incumbent: Brian Bilbray

This seat, you may recall, was formerly held by jailbird Republican Duke Cunningham but Cunningham was convicted before the 2006 election, so Democrat Francine Busby lost in this R+4 district to untainted carpetbagger Brian Bilbray by 9 points.

Nick Leibham, a former prosecutor, recently won the primary to run against Bilbray and shared with us some poll numbers of his own: Bilbray's re-elect is at 42% and a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican by 4 points. Essentially, this means the district is ready to elect a Democrat, they just need to get to know Leibham. He made a point of saying that he would not have a shot without the massive grassroots outreach and infrastructure that Francine Busby built in 2006.

This is a real opportunity for Democrats this year. The race has been targeted by the DCCC and Cook Political Report considers it competitive, albeit still "likely Republican."

NV-02
Democratic challenger: Jill Derby
Republican incumbent: Dean Heller

I'd have to say Jill Derby was a big hit on Sunday. She has a very appealing no-nonsense style in person and seems to be running her campaign in a similar manner. Derby is unapologetically running against the war, having endorsed the Responsible Plan and vowing:

"Nevadans are tired of Dean Heller walking in lockstep with the Bush Administration on what has proven to be a failed strategy for Iraq," Derby said in a statement.

This is Derby's second shot at Heller, having lost to him by just 5% in 2006 in a district that Kerry lost by 16% in 2004. NV-02 is the third largest (geographically) congressional district in the country encompassing virtually the entire state of Nevada outside of Las Vegas. Derby expects the organization and excitement that January's presidential caucus inspired this year to make the difference for her this year (in fact, since 2006 the Republican registration advantage in the district has shrunk by 35%.) You'll recall that it was this district where Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton and ended up winning more delegates out of the day even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. John McCain on the other hand didn't even compete in Nevada.

Update [2008-6-12 18:20:23 by Todd Beeton]:By the way, Schiff's USA-PAC has actually endorsed 8 Democrats in '08; the other four are Charlie Brown in CA-04, Gary Trauner in WY-AL, Harry Mitchell in AZ-05 and Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01.

Lest we forget, next week not only brings us the long awaited Iowa caucuses but it also marks the end of the year and, with that, the end of the fundraising quarter. Many campaigns are no doubt inundating your inboxes with fundraising asks and I hope you'll consider supporting one or more of our many excellent candidates running next year. I wanted to draw your attention to just one of them.

As I've been home in Connecticut for the holidays, I was lucky enough to meet CT-04 Democratic challenger, Jim Himes, who we all hope will be sending Chris Shays, aka the last Republican left in New England, packing in November. I definitely left the meeting impressed with Himes and excited that we can finally defeat the faux moderate right-wing enabler Shays.

To give you just a sense of the challenger we have in Jim Himes, go check out his liveblog over at FDL from earlier today. An excerpt from his post:

I came across Rockwell's "Freedoms" paintings some time ago, and I was struck by "Freedom from Fear". The paintings, of course, were based on Roosevelt's "Four Freedoms". Fredom from Fear . . . imagine! The administration has used fear--fear of attack, fear of people who look, pray or think differently, fear of immigrants, fear of change--for so long that it's now part of the background noise. I was in Bridgeport for a meeting with community activists a few weeks ago, and a burly African American man stood up to talk passionately about the fear he feels, the sense that government has devoted itself not to giving people like him a leg up or a catch should he fall, but to the narrow interests of people who really don't need its help.

I think a big part of distilling the progressive message in the face of universally bungled government will consist of taking seriously the notion of Freedom from Fear, and addressing the anxiety I sense around my district by pointing out that government once not only protected the vulnerable and the needy, but did great ambitious things that benefited all of us.

Amen!

The Himes campaign is looking to reach 500 Q4 contributors by the end of the quarter Monday night. Can you give him some love at his ActBlue page and help put him over the top? Also can't hurt to join the Himes For Congress Facebook page to keep plugged into what is sure to be one of the top tier congressional races of 2008.

What other candidates are you contributing to this quarter? Let us know in the comments with links.

[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]I should have been more specific, their goal is 500 contributions for the 4th quarter by midnight Monday. As of this update they have 456, let's help them over the top at ActBlue.

Two States So far have passed the filing deadlines for Congressional nominations: Illinois and Maryland

I detailed the candidates on Daily Kos:
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/1 1/6/10117/8454
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/1 2/4/174550/710

I didn't notice this at first, but I thought it was pretty incredible once I saw it.

Excluding the incumbents, 19 Republican candidates are running for the Republican U.S House nominations in Illinois.  This is the gender breakdown - men: 19 women: 0

Excluding the incumbents, 28 Republican candidates are running for the Republican U.S House nominations in Maryland.  This is the gender breakdown -  men: 28 women: 0

Total candidates: men: 47 women: 0

Now in case you are wondering, the Democrats are far from great either, but at least you know women exist when looking at the Democratics .

Democrats, same deal
Illinois: 23 candidates, 19 men, 4 women
Maryland: 19 candidates, 14 men, 5 women

Cross-posted from a breaking news story by Colorado Confidential.com.

Colorado's second congressional district has no seacoast, but boats are suddenly playing a role in the campaign. Swift boats.

Joan Fitz-Gerald's campaign says that Jared Polis has accepted five donations totaling $6,350 from donors who also gave money to the group that torpedoed Democrat John Kerry's presidential bid in 2004, the Swift Boat and POWs for Truth.

Fitz-Gerald, Polis, and political newcomer Will Shaforth are seeking to succeed Rep. Mark Udall in arguably Colorado's most liberal congressional district. And it's already getting ugly.

I listened in on an NRCC press conference call this morning during which I couldn't help but chuckle as Rep. Tom Cole, the committee's chair, raved about their recruitment, calling the 2008 recruiting class "the best in 12 years!" He also confidently advanced the number one congressional Republican talking point for 2008:

There is an anti-incumbency wave in the country!

How does he know? Why, because Americans hate congress, of course, which Republicans interpret, or at least pretend to because it posits the only scenario in which they win next year, as a mass "throw the bums out!" wave throughout the nation. Only problem is, it doesn't seem to be entirely true.

The new Fox News poll (pdf) (900 RVs, Oct. 23-24, MOE 3%) gauged three distinct questions about congress: approval, whether generic members of congress deserve re-election and then whether the respondent's own representative in congress deserves re-election.

The response:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job congress is doing?

Approve: 25%
Disapprove: 54%

When you think about Congress, do you think the average representative deserves to be reelected...?

Yes: 26%
No: 54%

How about your representative, does he or she deserve to be re-elected?

Yes: 50%
No: 29%

It should come as no surprise that the generic re-elect number differs so greatly from the numbers relating to their individual members of congress. It's common that voters like their congressman far more than they like the concept of congress as a whole. So, if there's this discrepancy, how do we know which is right, the generic number, which indicates a throw the bums out mood, or the specific number, which doesn't?

By looking at a poll that asked similar questions when voters were in an anti-incumbency mood: last fall.

I found a New York Times poll (pdf) (1,107 RVs, Sept. 15-19, 2006) from last fall that asked all three of these questions, and interestingly (and conveniently for the sake of comparison,) the congressional approval was the same.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job congress is doing?

Approve: 25%
Disapprove: 61%

Have most members of congress done a good enough job to deserve re-election...?

Yes: 12%
No: 77%

Has the representative in congress from your district performed his or her job well enough to deserve re-election?

Yes: 39%
No: 48%

Now, that, Congressman Cole, is what an anti-incumbency wave looks like. So, I have to agree with Paul Krugman on Hardball the other day who said, essentially, as disappointed as people are with congress, especially on the issue of the war, they're not likely to punish Democrats for it. The question remains, of course, if they'll continue to punish Republicans (an anti-obstruction wave?) as I suspect they will, but I don't necessarily see evidence of that in this poll.

As Jonathan wrote yesterday, Republicans jumped on Niki Tsongas's 6-point victory over Republican Jim Ogonowski in Tuesday's MA-05 special election as an opportunity to tout the supposed vulnerability of Democrats nationwide in 2008, claiming a moral victory for their candidate despite the fact that a 6 point win for a Democrat in one of the more conservative districts in Massachusetts -- in fact one that Mitt Romney won with 55% of the vote -- is actually a decent showing.

One example of this post-election spin came in the form of a memo sent out by the NRCC. From The Politico:

Republicans hailed the close race as a moral victory, arguing that Ogonowski "sent a message to the Washington establishment and Democratic Party that will reverberate throughout next year's election.

"He proved that a Republican challenger, who centers their campaign on the core issues of lower taxes, less government spending, respect for the rule of law and, most importantly, the issue of bringing change to Washington, can effectively garner votes from independents and swing voters," the NRCC wrote in a post-election memo.

This last point is key to their 2008 strategy to try to knock off some of the Democratic freshmen in conservative districts and hold that growing list of open GOP seats, a necessity if they hope to retake...er keep losses to a minimum. As Rep. Tom Cole, Chair of the NRCC, said:

"I tell candidates all the time that you ought to be running against all of Washington, D.C., and that includes us," Cole said. "Because we have not ourselves, in every case, lived up to the things that we wanted to accomplish as a party."

Not that this should make us quake in our boots or anything, especially considering the difficulty Republicans are having recruiting top tier challengers, but the Tsongas v. Ogonowski offers a strategy for Democrats to emulate as well.

Ogonowski, of course, ran as an "independent" "outsider" "devoted to fixing a broken congress" but he also, when Tsongas challenged him directly, never answered how he would have voted on SCHIP or the veto override. This should, and I'm sure will, be central to the Democrats' counter strategy for holding back Republican challenges, especially in moderate districts. For if there was a teachable moment for the Democrats out of Tuesday's special election, this was it.

From The Politico:

Republicans privately acknowledge that Ogonowski was hurt by not taking a position on whether he would have voted to override the president's veto. During the campaign, he said he supported the intent of the legislation but that the bill that passed the House was flawed.

In the campaign's final weeks, Tsongas relentlessly tried to pin Ogonowski down on his position, to no avail.

The SCHIP fight will be an effective tool, to be sure, both against members who voted against the expansion as well as against challengers who will be challenged to say how they would have voted had they been in congress. But it will also serve as an effective counter to any Republican who wishes to push the "broken congress" meme for the defeat of this extremely popular bi-partisan SCHIP expansion bill makes more clear than any other congressional fight this year that the biggest problem with congress is the Republicans in it.