Every year I attend a BBQ held by a friend of the family.  Her name is Deborah and sadly is a big-time Republican, though oddly enough not so much a conservative (well socially at least).  Now her late father and my father go way back, fought together in North Africa in WW2, so these people are practically family. Well, as mentioned, she holds an Independence Day BBQ cook out every year, and my father goes out of respect... and a free meal. Outside of me, sometimes, he's the only other non-Republican at these things.

I awaken  at 6AM to the sound of huge garbage trucks grinding bags of malodorous refuse piled curbside.

The garbage men do not collect the litter piled beside them, broken bags torn asunder by the homeless men and women who wander the streets nearby searching   for bottle returns to pay for the next few vials of crack.  Fat flies hover, searching for another place to alight, and the soft buzz of mosquitoes is drowned out by the sound of West Indian jitney vans and private car service drivers honking horns loudly; impatient to speed on their way to the next fare, competing with New York Transit buses for fares and winning at 1.00 a ride to the subway.   The neighborhood stirs and awakens to start yet another day of grinding poverty.

(Cross posted to DKos)

Politico David Kuhn lists the last Gallup polls taken around this period of time, 4 months prior to the election. With a poll ending July 2nd, Obama leads McCain 47 to 43 currently; here's the list:

Where does the Obama - McCain contest match-up? If I had to go with choosing corollary elections from the above, I'd go with '76, '60, and '49 (for which I've left in Kuhn's dshort descriptions). In terms of the candidate dynamics of the race, I'd choose'60, in that its a ground-breaking historical contest that's going to be very close; '76 in terms of the headwind that the Republican nominee faces; and '48 in that we could be totally shocked with another "Dewey wins" poll-buster election.

I was looking through the WaPost candidate tracker over the last month, since the GE started on June 3rd, here's the days in the 'battleground' states that each candidate has visited:

Obama:
2 visits: MO, OH, MI, NH
1 visit: CO, ND, MT, MN, NV, NM, FL, WI, VA, PA

McCain:
3 visits: FL, PA
2 visits: LA, VA, OH
1 visit: NH, CT, NJ, MO, MN, NV

What's it tell us?

Obama is trying to broaden the map and isn't too worried about defending blue states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are exceptions, as is New Hampshire, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but less so. Other than those 7 days, it was 11 days campaigning in '04 red states, especially Missouri and Ohio, but also exotic Dem Pres. states like ND and MT.

McCain is a bit more on the defense, he's trying to lock down Florida early, and build a firewall in the the states of Virginia and Ohio. He's spent 11 days in '04 red states, and just 7 days in '04 blue states, mostly in Pennsylvania.

Speaking of Pennsylvania, the spur-of-the-moment mini-vacation is in the extended entry.

reposted with permission

cross-posted @ This Week With Barack Obama

                               
                       michelle and barack leaving after watching their daughter's soccer game

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Ahhh, this read from politico, made me remember that one song from the wonderful musical, Music Man.

McCain got trouble, though not in River City, but say, his base or supporters or organizers or everyone?

While we watched the longest primary ever, one thing is true, during this time we built a great ground game in all 50 states.  And that is the gold standard from the primary going forward.

As we sloughed through each state, McCain had his "presumptiveness" in February.  Those that challenged him, Romney and Huckabee, bowed down and got the hell out.  They should have since Romney was paying for each primary and Huckabee was on a wing and a prayer.  But nonetheless, they turned out to be good Republicans and made up with McCain, publicly, and have been campaigning for him since.

So, why is McCain in a funk?  Various reasons.  I think he watched the Democratic Primaries and thought beating up on each other was enough to skate in, but now he has found out that Barack Obama is "that formidable candidate" that he just can't quite figure out.

It starts with Ed Rollins on morning joe last week, the video is here, not only did he blast McCain's Campaign but compared it to the failed campaigns of Phil Graham and Bob Dole.  OUCH.  Yes, this campaign is being run by that crew.

"McCain's campaign seems not to have a game plan. I don't see a consistent message," said Ed Rollins, a veteran of Republican presidential campaigns. "As someone who has run campaigns, this campaign is not running smoothly. But none of this matters if they get their act together."

Indeed, some Republican officials who spoke to Politico noted that there is still time for the campaign to find its footing and that no campaign is without its detractors. But the bulk of those interviewed expressed serious concern about what has appeared to be an aimless campaign so far, one that has failed to take advantage of a four-month head start on Democrats and has showed little sign of gaining traction.

I think this is why we see the McCain Campaign jump on Obama over this "Wes Mess", and continuing to whine about it, while his campaign is running on lack of money and lack of the basics, like grassroots organization?

"Here is where the problem is: We had a nomination gap between when McCain was nominated and the Democratic race completed," a swing state Republican Party chairman said. "I think [campaign manager] Rick Davis and his team did not have an understanding of how the grass-roots, organizational part of the party works. They did not use what the [Republican National Committee] had done, or how groups like the [National Rifle Association] could have helped the McCain campaign locally.

"They are just now opening up campaign operations in most states. The RNC was ready to go in most states in March," the state chairman continued, listing off grievances ranging from the campaign's "dictating" the members of various RNC committees to the state party's having been "threatened" that, though McCain "couldn't afford not to play in our state," the campaign would not "recommend us for resources" if the state party did not abide by its requests.

Ummmm.  When you are perceived to not knowing what to do and you come in and tell or threatened seasoned grassroots workers what the deal is, of course, you are getting no harmony.

Another thing, McCain had four months on us.  You mean to tell me they  are just opening up statewide offices?  McCain could have used this time to energize his base, listen to grievances, etc.  The only thing I can surmise is the lack of money to not move ahead, and this should have started when Huckabee got OUT.

"What's the political strategy when you allow your opponent, who has just had a grueling four months, time to catch their breath, regroup, fundraise and start to define himself?" asked a Republican strategist who helped lead a past presidential campaign. "It's politics 101."

So, what has McCain been doing?  Taking weekends off, of course, when he should have been organizing, campaigning vigorously, raising money and shoring up his base.  All that leisure is starting to anger the troops.

"Rather than trying to pull me in and make me an intricate part of the team they just told me what they wanted done, and said if you don't play ball we won't play ball," one state chairman said.

Those chairmen noted that the conservative base is far less riled, and significantly smaller, than its liberal counterpart. For this reason, GOP leaders generally believe they will have to be more efficient to overcome Obama's advantages.

"You are going to hear a lot of complaints from state party chairmen," one chairman said of his colleagues. "They are used to the Rove-Mehlman model. They were very good at finding the place they needed to win, down to the county they needed in Ohio.

Well, as much as we are in dissention, we are nowhere close to all that is going on with McCain.

If McCain can not energize his base, understand the basic fundamentals of grassroots organizing, underwhelming in the money game, what is his message to get folks not only to the polls but to vote for him?

Keep our eyes on the final PRIZE, in between arguing, that is.

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Tip the Obama Jar, Here
Get Involved Here
For Inspiration:  Yes.We.Can!!!

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cross-posted @ This Week With Barack Obama, reposted with permission

                                         john and cindy mccain in bogata, columbia

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Now this is how you get the Bush Tax Cuts to work for you.

After reading another juicy joint from politico, we have The McCains and trying to weave through their money thing.

I don't see how anyone at this JUNCTURE can point the finger at The Obamas for anything in the realm of elitism.  Not when you have The McCains with what 6, 7, 8 homes?

In recent years, a Politico analysis found, the McCain family appears to have tapped its fortune liberally.

While Cindy McCain, her dependent children and the trusts and companies they control made as much as $29 million - and likely substantially more - from her family's business interests from 2004 through last year, data from the Internal Revenue Service, the U.S. Senate, U.S. Office of Government Ethics and the Center for Responsive Politics also reveals that they spent $11 million purchasing five condominiums for the family, hired additional household help and racked up progressively larger credit cards bills almost every year.

Their credit card bills peaked between January 2007 and May 2008, during which time Cindy McCain charged as much as $500,000 in a single month on one American Express card and $250,000 on another, while one of their two dependent children had an AmEx card with a monthly balance as large as $50,000.

OK, the five condos do not include two other homes, and hey doesn't everyone in America have AMEX Cards and can spend up to 500K a month!!!  No biggie, not when you have accessible money like this, swiping the good old card, doesn't mean a thing.

Remember when John McCain's campaign was on exhaust fumes last year?  Well his travel sure wasn't or did you expect John to travel in coach?

Likewise, John McCain's presidential campaign benefited from Cindy McCain's fortune, using a legal loophole to travel the country in a jet owned by her company for cut-rate fares.

In fact, the cost of using Cindy's private jet to get around only cost:

For five of those months, the plane was used almost exclusively for campaign-related purposes, those records show.

Mr. McCain's campaign paid a total of $241,149 for the use of that plane from last August through February, records show. That amount is approximately the cost of chartering a similar jet for a month or two, according to industry estimates.

Yes, real perks when you are the ultra rich.

Remember all the fuss on Michelle Obama's 148.00 dress she wore on The View?  A dress she plucked off the rack?  For many that is still pricey, but there will be no plucking off the racks for Cindy.  No that just won't do.

For instance, in the June issue of Vogue magazine, Cindy McCain said she favors suits made by the German designer Escada, which typically retail for around $3,000-a-pop. If she becomes first lady, she told Vogue she may switch to an American designer, possibly Carolina Herrera, whose suits are comparably pricey.

Now we all expect our potential first ladies to dress appropriately, I mean we don't want them looking like dish rags, but who in American can afford suits from Escada that start at 3K a pop?  Yeah, I thought this would put you on pause.

NOBODY I KNOW SHOPS AT ESCADA.

Sorry, don't know anyone that does.  You got to be in that "ultra rich" area to afford luxury clothing, yes that is what it is.

Now back to real estate, Cindy purchases three condos, and two in the same building.  The condos are priced at 700K, 830K and 4.7M but it does not stop there:

Cindy McCain, through another family corporation, spent about $4.7 million in 2004 and 2008 on two condos in an exclusive building in Coronado, Calif., an affluent San Diego suburb noted for its high percentage of military retirees.

And it continues....

Through her trusts and other corporate entities, Cindy McCain also owns another three properties: a scenic ranch outside Sedona, Arizona, where John McCain has entertained staff, prospective running mates and political reporters; a three-bedroom Arlington, Virginia, condo that's been John McCain's Washington-area residence since 1993 and the La Jolla, California, condo on which the back taxes were due.

This real estate puzzle reads like the who's who of the rich and famous.  It really does.  With all this property comes staff, as in those that pick your shit up and clean up after you.

The McCains increased their budget for household employees from $184,000 in 2006 to $273,000 in 2007, according to John McCain's tax returns.

I don't know about you, but John McCain with Cindy surely has no reason to call the Obamas elitists.  Not when you are running around spending up to 500K a month on AMEX cards, paying upwards of 300K for staff in all of your palatial residences, a corporate jet at the touch of your hand, and clothing only at couture boutiques where suits start at $3500.00.

What about the Americans who are hurting with lack of health care, food costs soaring, gas at the pump is off the chain, jobs are leaving this country, lack of jobs, tuition costs unaffordable, losing their homes and those that can not cover their bills; I don't know anyone in America who can relate to the McCains extravagances.

I am tired of the same old type of candidate, who is ultra rich, ascending to the office of the presidency.  What change can they bring?  They have been fed with the silver spoon of trust funds, elitism, and prestige.  This is not the average American who has to get up every day and work to make ends meet.

John and Cindy McCain should not utter another word about Barack and Michelle Obama.  They never had to work hard for anything; it has always been given to them, from money to name recognition.

It is time for change, not keeping the same.

In August of 2006, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) defeated incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek) in the Republican primary. Those that live in Michigan's 7th District may remember the vicious primary campaign, in which Walberg-- funded by the Club for Growth and other radical right-wing groups-- destroyed the name and good work of a dedicated public servant. Schwarz was conservative, but he was honest and hard-working, and was one of the few "good" Republicans left. And Tim Walberg, a former far-right minister, attacked Schwarz without mercy.

A few days after the primary, I started a blog called Walberg Watch. Originally hosted on Blogspot, I wanted to create an online record of Walberg's extreme positions as the 2006 election approached, facing the terribly underfunded Democratic nominee Sharon Renier. Walberg won that election by just four percent, and I found myself with a new blogging mission: following Tim Walberg's adventure through what will hopefully be his only term in the United States House of Representatives.

Over the last two years, a lot has changed, with much of it building toward the re-launch at the new www.WalbergWatch.com. Below the fold, I'd like to walk you through some of the additions to Walberg Watch. I'm excited by what we can accomplish in the next 126 days as we work to bring about better representation. I hope that by the time you're done reading this, you are too.

Right after the Ohio Democratic Primaries ended, I remember watching the talking heads on both CNN and MSNBC (I refuse to watch Faux News for electoral coverage).  As everyone knows, Hillary Clinton won that state with 54% of the vote.  The talking heads went on to say how if Hillary didn't get the nomination, that the blue-collar hard hats (sometimes known as "Reagan Democrats") would go for John McCain.  And of course, Pat Buchanan, politics' Archie Bunker, said it was inconceivable that blue-collar workers would vote for Obama in November. On CNN, you had one of Hillary's supporters, Lanny Davis saying Ohio was much in doubt should Barack take the nomination.

Ari Melber, Obama Network Organizes and Revolts over Spying:

The Wanker-In-Waiting, Keith Olbermann, who has flipped his position to become the defender of Obama now supporting FISA, is expected "to deliver a "Special Comment" on Monday's show to elaborate on his "Obama/FISA" defense."

Now, which tactic works better? The use of BO's tools to organize and send a message from within that pushes for change, or the sycophant use of television by a tool? I guess it depends on what outcome you'd like to see.

What I'd like to see is some investigative reporting down that shows why in the world Obama actually flipped his position to take the lead on supporting the "compromise" FISA bill. Is it really just the "move to the center" that Glenn talks about, or is there something else to it?