There's a lot of chatter in the blogosphere about Hillary supporters threatening to flee the Democratic Party in droves if Clinton is not declared the nominee at the convention. The argument, as I understand it, is that these supporters feel slighted by Obama, his campaigns, or his supporters, and, as a result, would refuse to support him as the nominee. If you're one of these people, then this is for you. Here's one simple reason why you should support Barack Obama if he is the nominee:

Hillary Clinton will support Barack Obama if he is the nominee.

"I can assure you, as I have said on many occasions, that no matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party, because we must win in November," she said.

Keep in mind, she didn't say this in a concession speech. She declared her support at the same time she declared victory in Indiana. If Hillary Clinton loses the nomination, she's going to stay and fight for Barack Obama, not pack her bags and go home. And do you know why? For the same reason that many of you have been supporting her for over a year.

She gets it.

She knows that this presidential race is about more than just her. She knows that this country can't survive a McCain presidency, and she's putting her country first by making sure that a Democrat--be it her or Obama--is elected president in November.

Are there differences between her healthcare plan and Obama's plan? Yes, but they both want Americans to have insurance, while McCain will let the healthcare industry keep committing murder by spreadsheet.

Did she and Obama occasionally diverge on their support for Bush's Occupation of Iraq? Yes, but they both want to withdraw our troops, while McCain will keep them in harm's way for at least four more years, letting thousands more of your brothers, sisters, and children die.

Does she, as a woman, bring a unique and perhaps superior perspective on reproductive rights than Obama does? Yes, but they're both pro-choice, while McCain will appoint right-wing judges who will overturn Roe, giving the government control over American women's bodies.

Do you really think that Hillary Clinton, of all people, doesn't know the differences between herself and Barack Obama? And yet she has already declared her support for Obama if he is the nominee. She did this because she knows that John McCain is poison for the United States. If he is elected president, he will destroy this country.

Die-hard Clinton supporters, whatever you may dislike about Barack Obama, always remember that he, like Hillary Clinton, is thousands of times better for America than John McCain will ever be. You can point to Obama's ties to Rezko and Wright in the fall, but you should really be pointing to McCain's ties to Hagee and Bush. Hillary Clinton will be doing the latter. What will you do?

True, the rules do say that no candidate is officially the nominee before the convention, but both candidates will go to the convention, and either Obama or Clinton will come out the nominee. Regardless of the outcome, though, I guarantee you that Hillary Clinton will leave the convention with her head held high, and she will proudly begin to do everything she can to elect the next Democratic President of the United States.

If you claim to be a liberal, progressive, or a Democrat, but you're considering refusing to support Obama if he is the nominee, then you don't deserve to have an incredible candidate like Hillary Clinton--a proud Democrat first and foremost.

Hillary will fight for the nominee, so why won't you?

(Cross-posted at CrazyDrumGuy and DailyKos)

Obama's party? Very likely. Many in the past few days have cried foul, suggesting that the media is trying to end the race; kick Hillary out. That sexism prevailed. That voters have been disenfranchised. That caucuses are undemocratic. That one candidate is outspending the other. That Fox is fair and Fox is balanced. Hell no, we won't vote. That Clinton should be the nominee. Or wait, the VP. Popular vote. Edwards is Judas II. Electoral College. Polls. Superdelegates...

Convention.
Floor.
Fight.

Here's how it is:

* The media is not kicking Senator Clinton out of the race. If anything, they'd love for this to go on and on and on. If you think otherwise, then you must think you live in Iceland.

* The media is sexist. Oh boy. How do I handle this one. Listen, see point above. The media will be sexist, racist, ageist... whatever brings in more ad dollars, they go with it. If that weren't the case, a douche like Buchanan wouldn't still be allowed on the air.

* Superdelegates. There was a time when all we heard from the Clinton camp was "Automatic (Super) delegates should exercise their judgment". Ickes said it. Penn said it. Wolfson said it. And now that them supers are doing just that, everyone is freaking out? They are exercising their judgment, in Obama's favor.

* Some big ugly secret about Obama might come out. Yes. True. Something big and ugly could come out about McCain. Or Clinton. Something could always happen. Life, weird how it works out. But until it does, if you have the most delegates, you're the nominee

* Media Bias. Seriously. After being hammered on Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Farrakan, flag pins, Israel support, etc... after all of this, how can you believe for one second that Obama is favored by the media? He's favored by Malloy. Hillary is favored by Lynn Samuels. He's favored by HuffPo. She's favored by Taylor Marsh (who by the way removed the Rezko videos from her site. May be she feels change in the air?). If anything, the media was biased against Obama. And seriously, if all the "scandals" listed above couldn't take down Obama, I don't know what will.

* The timing of the Edwards endorsement was bullshit. Yes, very true. Bullshit for Senator Clinton, great for Senator Obama. Just like the timing of the 3AM ad was bullshit. Just like the Obama health care mailers were bullshit. There's a whole lot of cow dung flying around. I happen to think that the Clinton campaign was worse in this department. You might think Obama was more negative. We disagree, and we move on

* She earned her spot on the ticket. Honest to God she did. Nobody should run for office for this long, this hard, and come away with nothing. But she doesn't have to come away with nothing. I think to myself "you know what, we can make this dream ticket work". But then I go back to Senator Clinton "bringing a life of experience to the process"... "McCain.. bringing a life of experience".. and Obama. Ohhhh Obama. Him and his shiny little speech. Regardless, If Obama is the nominee and he can work something out with Clinton as VP, Edwards as AG, who knows. May be we can get the band back together and rock this damn election as we should.

* Buying Elections. This is one that I simply fail to fathom. "Obama outspent Clinton 3-1". "Obama outspends Clinton 4.21 to 1". So what? He's new. You can't blame the guy for not being around so long and then blame him for spending money on putting his message out there. Which leads me to another point. He's only outspending Clinton because he can. Because the Clinton campaign mismanaged their money. The mismanaged the campaign. These are the results brought forth by Mr. Penn. Not by MSNBC. Not by Fox. Not by CNN. But by Penn and all those who did not stand up to him. Clinton might have been more of a change candidate than Obama. But no. Wasn't gonna go down that way. Not on Penn's watch it wasn't.

Damn, I could really go on all night. If you're 55 and a female. I can't tell you that I know what it must feel like, cause I don't. I can try to imagine and I have. It must suck actually. But you're giving Clinton less credit that she's due to think that it was stolen from her. She fought a good fight. She's still fighting it. And by her demeanor, she's still going to fight it. This isn't really about Clinton becoming president. It isn't about Obama becoming president. This is about the way we live and how we move forward.

This is not being handed to Obama. He worked hard. He worked real hard for this. He got blasted for this. He's the only person in the world who's got this one little problem: a Muslim with a crazy pastor. This is how much shit this guy's had to take.

Vote for McCain if you must. But remember how in 2000 a gallon of gas cost $1.4? Remember how more than 4000 of our troops were still alive? Remember when inflation wasn't 3.9%? Remember when we didn't have the foreclosure rates of today? Remember when we didn't have 300,000 soldiers with PTSD? Remember how Haillburton almost folded? Take all the bad things and multiply them by two. That's what 2013 will look like if John McCain is elected president. There is not a shred of doubt in my mind, whether the nominee is Obama or Clinton, we will defeat McCain and the Republicans come November. Cause whatever shit they throw at us, we're too damn tired and angry to buy it this time around.

Today John McCain appeared more than willing to hug George W. Bush again, concurring with the President's ridiculous position that it is a sign of weakness rather than one of strength for America to be willing to speak with other nations of the world, both those that are friendly and those that are not. The McCain campaign went even farther, with the candidate himself becoming unhinged in questioning Barack Obama's qualifications to be President because he doesn't adhere to Bushian views on foreign policy. The response from the Obama campaign was strong:

Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor also weighs in: "It is the height of hypocrisy for John McCain to deliver a lofty speech about civility and bipartisanship in the morning and then embrace George Bush's disgraceful political attack in the afternoon.  Instead of delivering meaningful change, John McCain wants to continue George Bush's irresponsible and failed Iran policy by refusing to engage in tough, direct diplomacy like Presidents from Kennedy to Reagan have done."

The Obama campaign is completely right to invoke Presidents Kennedy and Reagan in talking about the importance of speaking with both friend and foe. They might have even invoked Teddy Roosevelt, who McCain claims to model his career after but who in fact McCain seems to know and understand little about, a President who won a nobel peace prize while in the White House specifically because of his willingness to engage with the world.

But I'd go even a step further and ask why John McCain is afraid to speak with Iran. What is it about Iran that scares McCain so much? Or is it that McCain believes Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei are so crafty that they would trick an American President into inadvertently ceding the state of Maine or American Samoa to Iran? Or alternatively, is it that McCain simply does not know how to act in a manner different from his true political role model, George W. Bush?

America shows its strength by being part of the world, not receding from it. If there is any lesson to learn from the period between the two world wars it is exactly that -- it is entirely counterproductive for America to turn inward and be afraid to engage with the world in a meaningful way. But when America is willing to speak with unfriendly nations from a position of strength -- whether President Kennedy speaking with Premier Kruschev, President Nixon speaking with Chairman Mao or President Reagan speaking with Premier Gorbachev, to take three examples -- both America and the world more broadly can reap serious benefits.

I don't speak for anyone but myself, but this particular Hillary supporter is tired of the 'myth of inevitability' that Barack's supporters keep trying to sell.  She wasn't, early on, although some claimed she thought she was, and she certainly appeared polished and confident, and he isn't either. The entire reason for super delegates is to overturn the delegate lead when that candidate can't get elected.  It's not just the economy, although that's why she's winning those so-called Reagan Democrats he claimed early on were for him. It's the electoral map, updated right here, that shows that even a dorky guy like John McCain can beat Barack Obama in the fall.  The pugs have a built in advantage, recall that we're a Republic, not a Democracy.  Recall now voter ID's are the law of the land. Recall they cheat.  Recall they will do and say anything to win, so that we can lose even more rights that will expand their built-in advantage for the coming elections.  

But, I don't just think she can win the nom and the GE, I think she will, and here's why.  

I understand that this must be a difficult time for many Clinton supporters.  As an Obama supporter, I can say, quite honestly, that I like and respect Hillary Clinton.  She is a highly qualified leader and someone who could become a very good President.

She was let down by an incompetent campaign staff.  A sin for which she must accept a large share of the blame.  She was also facing something akin to a tidal wave in American politics.  Younger voters, in particular, have come to view the Democratic party as either feckless or perhaps even deceitful.  The Democrats have not been able to capture the discussion for at least eight years.

As a result, many people have sought to give someone new a chance.  This person, Barack Obama, is an untested quantity and could fail spectactularly.  In which case, it'll be a monumental case of "I told you so".  Nevertheless, there are many of us out there who are willing to give him a shot.  We think he can do it.  That's what motivates our vote.  What does not motivate our vote is sexism.

This is rather interesting. Congressional Republicans, in the wake of their embarrassing and downright depressing loss in the special election in Mississippi's first congressional district, are talking about downplaying the things that currently make the party so unpopular with the American people while trying to embrace as tightly as possible their presidential nominee, John McCain. McCain, however, will have none of it, report Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse.

But Mr. McCain's advisers said the Mississippi race underlined his intention to distance himself as much as possible from Congressional Republicans. Mr. McCain has already been openly critical of some of President Bush's strategies.

Times are tough when a party's presidential nominee is afraid to being affected by the taint that surrounds his party's membership in Congress. But it's not the first time that we've seen this before. During the run up to the 1948 presidential election, Harry Truman ran as much against the "Do-Nothing Republican Congress"  headed by the unpopular Robert Taft of Ohio as he did GOP presidential nominee Thomas Dewey. What's more, Truman drove a wedge right down the middle of the Republican Party, introducing legislation in Congress seeking the implementation of the moderate policies upon which Dewey was running his campaign -- policies, however, that were anathema to the Republican leadership on Capitol Hill (particularly Taft).

There's a possibility that the Democrats could do the same thing here -- split McCain off from his base, and from the Republican leadership in Congress. The problem, of course, is that unlike Dewey, who was genuinely a moderate and even had some progressive tendencies, McCain is a hard right conservative. Luckily, however, even as McCain finds himself well to the right of center on most issues, his party's leadership and much of its base is even more conservative than he is. On at least a few issues, there is some light of day between McCain and folks like John Boehner.

What could the Democrats do to exploit this? Bring up some of those policies upon the back of which McCain pretends to be a moderate but which he would never exert any real political capital trying to pass if president and dare the Republicans to vote for them. For instance, look at the issue of immigration. Because Republicans on Capitol Hill would never support a serious solution to the problem that attempts to stop the flow of those unlawfully crossing the border while at the same time figuring out a path to legalization for the millions already here who are so important to the American economy, if the Democrats introduced such legislation they could illustrate to the American people that while McCain might talk a good talk, when push comes to shove he (a) can't get it done when it counts, and (b) doesn't command the respect of his own party.

Americans don't want someone who won't or can't get things done to be President. Do nothing Presidents, just like do nothing Congresses, just aren't popular. So although attempting such a move carries at least some risks -- most notably the possibility that McCain comes off as more of a moderate than he actually is -- the potential upsides of such a move, including outing McCain as someone who when push comes to shove will not be able to achieve many if any of the policy proposals where he is slightly less conservative than the rest of his party, just might make it worthwhile.

Everyone knows Obama will win the pledged delegate totals but Clinton folk like to tell you that the supers might go to her and negate the pledged delegate totals. Let's see how possible that might be

Obama's site lists he needs 132.5 delegates to hit 2026. Let's just see how many supers he would need:

I am using Slate.com's delegate calculator and giving VERY conservative estimates for the final states. (Obama winning by 10 Oregon, Montana, and SD and Clinton winning by 30 in PR and Kentucky). He would net 83 pledged delegates.

He would need only 49.5 supers. Since there is no .5's left that would mean he would need 50 supers to be safe.

He is averaging about 5 super delegates a day. Meaning....

Obama will based on my math cross the threshold of super delegates needed in only 10 days

Time to put your money where your mouth is. I wanna see if these pro-McCain voters who always post diaries are as large as they seem to be. Poll after the fold.