I have been watching all the talking heads on the 24/7 Cable News stations a lot recently, and the stupidity of these people has been driving me crazy.  I keep hearing them cry hypocrisy over the Democrats possibly nominating the candidate with the least popular votes despite disputing the 2000 election because Bush took office even though he lost the popular vote nationwide.

Now, there are many differences between the current situation and the one in 2000 (The MI/FL situation, caucuses vs. primaries, no popular vote numbers from some caucus states, should contests in Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and other US territories count towards the popular vote even though they can't vote in a general election, etc..).  And so I don't want to get into the legitimacy of the Florida/Michigan situation and who actually leads in the popular vote.  

All I wanted to say to the morons on the right who is that the legitimacy of the 2000 election was not disputed over the fact that Bush "won" despite losing the national popular vote.  Al Gore was fully prepared to concede the election even though he won the popular vote nationwide once the Florida votes were counted.  The winner of national popular vote was never in doubt.  The election was disputed because the Secretary of State in Florida refused to count all the votes in that state in accordance with the law, and thus we never got to find out who actually won Florida's 25 electoral votes. So, note to right wing hacks, you still stole that election in 2000 and you are either stupid or completely dishonest...probably a combination of both.  But I guess we already knew that.  I just needed to do a little venting.  I hope you understand.  VIVA DEMOCRACY!

You may or may not have heard President George W. Bush, when talking about our current economy and what our nation has gone through over the past 7 years, claiming that during his first term in office, the country survived a recession that `began' during the previous administration.  He continues to repeat this comment using the qualifier `began' when referring to the previous recession.

You may also remember that during the 2000 Election campaign, Dick Cheney declared that he and George W. Bush were `concerned' that we were "currently in" a recession.  He said this in October of 2000.

Well, in case you didn't know it (because like me, you assumed Bush was speaking the truth about `when' that recession happened), our last recession actually `began' in March and ended in November of 2001; During George W. Bush's administration.

Remember this?

Rolling Stone, Nov 26, 2001

...Recalls one network-television correspondent who spent lots of time on the presidential campaign, "There just developed among a certain group of people covering Gore, particularly the print people, a real disdain for him. Everything was negative. They had a grudge against [Gore]. I don't know how else to put it...."

WILL BLOOMBERG RUN?

Mayor Michael Bloomberg has done a very good job running NYC. His switch of party affiliation from Republican to Independent has fueled speculation that he may well run as a third party candidate for president in 2008.

Let's look back to the effect of the campaign of a major third party candidate, Ralph Nadar, in 2000. Mr. Nadar garnered some 90,000 votes in Florida; Al Gore lost the state, in "official" count, by a little more than 500 votes. Certainly, Mr. Gore could have won by doing lots of thinks differently in his campaign, but clearly Nadar cost him the election.

Think of some of the probable difference in the last six years, had Gore won:

No invasion of Iraq with its disastrous consequences.
No massive deficit
No illegal eavesdropping, renditions, and the like.
No extensive and questionable politicizing of the Federal government
Continued respect by foreign nations and peoples.
Environmental improvement instead of deterioration.
Action on global warming
Appointment of Justices who respect women's rights.

A Bloomberg candidacy would draw from Democratic voters, which could result in continued Republican misrule. Mr. Bloomberg, if you are pro-choice and believe in honest and competent, make the right choice and do not run!

Homer   www.altara.blogspot.com

Anyone smart enough to look beyond our corporate-controlled mainstream media (alternatives include well-known investigative journalist Greg Palast, see GregPalast.com) will learn of Florida Governor Jeb Bush's criminal malfeasance perpetrated prior to his brother George W. Bush's 2000 Presidential election. The Governor had close friends in high places at a company called DBT Technologies, which was acquired by Choicepoint Software, a company specializing in identity record searches. Jeb Bush and Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris fraudulently created a method to go beyond Florida voting laws preventing Florida felons from voting, and catching as many Democratic voters in their web of ineligibles, as possible. With five million dollars of Florida taxpayer money, they purchased a flawed Florida felons purge list, which DBT had warned as containing tens of thousands of perfectly legal Floridians without felony records. Why did the Governor and the Secretary of State go ahead and purchase this flawed list? The answer lies in WHO was incorrectly placed on the list: It contained black, low-income individuals - a usually Democrat-voting demographic.  

With this seven-year-old history lesson in mind, and remembering that Bush defeated Gore by such a slim margin - the Supreme Court's upheld number of winning Bush votes was 356 - Jeb's voter fraud has had world changing consequences, and I wholeheartedly agree, has left our world much worse off. I am not "going out on a limb" in believing that had Gore won, there would be around 150,000 Iraqi civilians, including many women and children, living out their lives as they should be doing. This is also the case for 3,000 American servicemen and women, not mentioning the tens of thousand wounded. Furthermore, what little I know about Al Gore, I have to believe that he may have been responding instead of ignoring the worst humanitarian crisis since the Rwanda Genocide of the early nineties - the Darfur Genocide occurring since 2003, thereby preventing the needless deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. This crisis our good Christian President George W. Bush does not seem to interested in since there is not a strong financial incentive such as stealing oil for Exxon and Chevron.  

There are plenty of other calamities because of Jeb's fraud: environmental regulation unraveling, which allows our children to breath more polluted air, as well as a failure to stop industry from adding to global warming. Tax breaks for the ultra-rich at the expense of the middle class, American jobs being sent overseas, destruction of rights guaranteed under the US Constitution, etc. However, some higher power must have sent a lot of Karma Jeb's way!

I was trying to remember the 2000 US Senate elections, and decided to go google them up. What I really wanted was some election eve polling info, but charts of those have really come into happening with only this and the '04 elections.

Here's some of what I looked at:  Stuart Rothenberg's '00 Senate analysis; there's the Cook Report's '00 Senate call; and the listing of Congressional Quarterly's No Clear Favorites; a CNN day before CW analysis.

In 2000, Republicans held a 54-46 advantage going into the election, with 19 of the 34 seats being contested. About a month out from the election, the toss-ups were in Delaware, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New York and Virginia.

In Delaware, Bill Roth, the Republican incumbent sought a sixth term.  His Democratic opponent was Governor Tom Carper. The two were in a statistical tie in the polls a month out, and Carper had a high single-digit lead by the election. CQ called the race  with NCF, RC said it was a toss-up, and Carper won in a 56-44 blowout.

In Florida, Republican Congressman Bill McCollum and Democratic State Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson fought to replace retiring Republican Connie Mack. Nelson had a month out lead of 10 percent, and that Nelson lead stayed at 5-10 points up to the election, with GOP polling showing the race even. CQ called the race lean Dem, RC said it was a toss-up, and Nelson won by 5 perccent, 51-46.

In Michigan, Republican Spencer Abraham was challenged by Democratic challenger Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow. Late polling showed Abraham had an early setback, then recovered with an 8-10 point lead going into November, that closed to a low single-digit lead by election eve. Abraham failed to poll above the 50 percent mark, and CQ called the race with NCF and RC said it was a toss-up. Stabenow was the victor by a 50-48 margin.

In Minnesota, Republican Rod Grams Democratic challenger was department store heir Mark Dayton. A month out, Dayton had a 14 percent lead, and late polling showed Dayton still with a clear lead, CQ called the race lean Dem, RC said it was a toss-up, and Dayton won by a 49-43 margin.

In Missouri, Senator John Ashcroft's Democratic challenger was the late Governor Mel Carnahan, who died less than a month before the election. Ashcroft led by 2 percent a month out, but by election eve, it was even or Carnahan with a slim lead. CQ called the race NCF, RC said it was a lean Republican, and Ashcroft was defeated by 51-48 percent.

In New York, First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton was running for the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan, against the Republican challenger Congressman Rick Lazio. A month out, a state poll showed Clinton with a 4-point lead. By mid October, Clinton led by 7-14 percent, though Zogby said Lazio led 43-42 percent in late October; Rothenberg thought Clinton had a slight edge, and by election day, Cook had Clinton up 7-8 percent. CQ had the race pegged at NCF, RC said it was a toss-up, with Clinton breezing to a 55-43 blowout.

In Virginia, Democrat Charles Robb's Republican opponent was former Governor George Allen. A month out, Allen had an 8-point lead, despite the DSCC outspending the NRSC 2:1. On election eve, Cook nailed it, saying "Republicans effectively have to beat Robb to insure that they retain their majority." In late polling, Allen continued to lead; CQ called the race with NCF, RC said it was a toss-up, and Allen won by a 52-48 margin.  

A few other races popped up on the radar in the last month. Those were Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Washington.

In Montana, Republican Conrad Burns' Democratic opponent was rancher Brian Schweitzer.  Burns had a 9 point lead a month out. Schweitzer closed the gap going into election day, with the contest becoming NCF according to CQ, RC said it was a lean Republican, and Burns winning on election day by 51-47 percent.

In Nebraska's open seat, the contest was between Democratic former Governor Ben Nelson and Republican Nebraska State
Attorney General Don Stenberg. Nelson has a 20-point lead a month out, but with effective negative advertising, the lead closed quickly. Cook remained with a "favored" outlook for Nelson, and CQ called the race lean Dem, so did RC, but Nelson won by a slim 51-49 margin.

In New Jersey, the open-seat race was between Republican Congressman Bob Franks and businessman Jon Corzine. A month out, Corzine has a 14-point lead. With Bob Shrum's help, Corzine blew the lead by spending $50M on television (that's ~$7.5M for Shrum). The race was polled at within single digits on election eve, CQ called the race lean Dem, RC said it was a toss-up, and Corzine was the 50-47 percent victor.  

In Pennsylvania, Republican incumbent Rick Santorum was challenged by Democratic Congressman Ron Klink.  Santorum had an 11-point lead a month out with one third undecided. Polling closer to the election showed Santorum still with a clear lead, and the race wasn't considered close by election day. CQ rated the race Republican favored, though Santorum won by just a 52-46 margin.

In Washington, Republican Slade Gorton's Democratic opponent was Internet executive and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell. With the mid Sept primary, polling was late on the race. The race was quickly rated as neck and neck. CQ rated it as NCF, RC said it was a toss-up, and Cantwell won in a 49-49-2 recount.

So, that was how I reconstructed it, adding significantly to my memory of the elections six years ago, and have a few notes.

First, there is just not much to go on in terms of public polling. I'm sure there more public polls than I note above, but they are not easily found.

Second, some races were blown by Roll Call and Congressional Quarterly. I'm thinking of New York, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Delaware for both operations. Roll Call also mis-called it with Minnesota, Montana, Rhode Island, and were wrong with Missouri. CQ also mis-called New Jersey, and Florida.  

Third, that maybe there's a correlation between the first and second point-- that with less public polling, the guessing game was harder.

Maybe we have enough polling done now, that CQ's and Pollster are right, and it's very clear that it's down to just 4 toss-up seats with 9 days to go to the election. Still, I expect some surprises.

The following ideas are from "How to Rig Elections," the first chapter of the book Stealing Democracy: The New Politics of Voter Suppression.

Floridians cast six million ballots in the November 2000 presidential election.  At the end of the night, Republican George W. Bush led Democrat Al Gore by just 1,784 votes.  In accordance with state law, Florida conducted a statewide machine recount, which left Bush ahead by only 300 votes.  

At that point, the Gore team focused on four heavily Democratic counties--Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia.  An initial manual recount of a few precincts within each of the four counties--in which election workers examined each ballot by hand--showed vote totals different than the machine count.  Each of the four counties decided to manually recount all of its ballots.  

Republican Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris--who also served as co-chair of the Bush-Cheney campaign--objected to the county-wide manual recounts.  She cited with unnerving specificity that Florida law states that counties can do a hand recount of all ballots if the sample manual recount of a few precincts "indicates an error in the vote tabulation . . . ."  Harris argued that this phrase allowed a countywide manual recount only when the machinery or software used in counting the ballots malfunctioned.  Throughout the next several weeks, she made a number of similar decisions that seemed to favor Bush.    

Harris, the granddaughter of a Florida citrus and cattle baron, was a trim 43-year old brunette.  Her creamy red lipstick and long black eyelashes attracted attention from the press and late-night comedians.  State disclosure records indicated that Harris had a personal net worth of $6.5 million, but her 55-year-old husband, Swedish businessman Sven Anders Axel Ebbeson, was reported to be worth much more.  

From the beginning of the primary season she supported the Bush nomination, traveling with a group of Florida Republicans to New Hampshire to campaign for him.  "I am thrilled and honored to announce my support of George W. Bush for the presidency," Harris pronounced in a statement featured on the Bush-Cheney web site.  Phone records would later reveal that Harris was in contact with the Bush-Cheney presidential campaign and with Florida Republican Governor Jeb Bush during the contested period following the 2000 election.  

Even though counties like Palm Beach had not finished their manual count, on November 26 Harris arrived in the cabinet room of the Florida state house clad in a hunter-red suit jacket to make a formal announcement to the press and the public.  She proclaimed that George W. Bush had won Florida's electoral votes by 537 votes, and that her office "conducted itself with integrity and independence."  In concluding her remarks, Harris stated:

"Finally, I wish to point out that our American democracy has triumphed once again. And this is a victory in which we can also take a great deal of pride and comfort. The true winner in the election is the rule of law. Thank you and may God bless America."

In 33 states across the nation, the secretary of state or some other elections director is an elected partisan like Katherine Harris.  In many other states, the functional head of the Republican or Democratic state party--the governor--appoints the state elections director and/or a commission to administer elections.  

Most other democracies in the world recognize the conflict of interest inherent in partisan oversight of elections, and take concrete steps to address it.  Over half of the world's democracies use independent officials or commissions to administer elections, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and even the newly formed Iraq.   Another 27% allow the government to manage elections but have an oversight body composed primarily of judges, including France, Germany, Spain, Argentina, Japan, New Zealand, and Israel.