Well the local news in Las Vegas, NV today reported that the main Democrat running against Jon Porter in CD3, was dropping out due to "family reasons". Robert Daskas was to be the opponent was had a strong chance to beat Porter. This was kinda dis heartening to hear until....

The news added it is very likely Dina Titus, a State Senator, would take his place to run against Porter. Titus came close to winning the Governorship in 06 and beat the now most un-popular Governor in the nation in CD3 on election day.

Democrats hold a 22,500 voter registration advantage over Republicans in the district and in 06 Porter barely won his district against a political new comer by 1%. Titus, who is well recognized throughout the state and again, won CD3 against Gibbons in the Governors race would surely be able to user Porter out and add another Democrat to the House.

I honestly have a question for all of the people posting Obama hit diaries that are premised on his lack of electability; what do you suggest we do?

I'm being serious, because if Obama is unelectable than so is Hillary, just because Obama is torn down doesn't mean Hillary is lifted up (in the general), notice that while she has risen relative to Obama in the last week she has fallen even father behind McCain (indeed, even post-Wright she trails McCain by a larger margin).

The argument seems to be that since Obama is undefined this episode smears him, and nothing will stick to Hillary because she's already been defined, let us suppose this is true (I don't belioeve either portion but for the sake of argument): I again ask how does this make Hillary electable, if the impression of her is set in stone then she is never going to win, the majority in the country (according to the latest polling) view her as untrustworthy and as person who neither cares about them nor shares their values. And so I ask how do you think that a person who the majority of Americans view as a sociopahtic liar (its untrue, but as her supporters state she has fought the right for 15 years, what they don't add is that she has by and large lost that fight-- she isn't her Husband she doesn't have his Charisma or likability), especially against a man that the same majority views as a straight talking war hero. Remember, you have all argued that the press is biased against Hillary, and this is probably true, so I ask you if she has a negative image, and its set, and the press is against her by what logic can she beat a man the press loves (more than they love any politician I have ever seen), who has an incredible image and story, and who is viewed as a paragon of the very quality (integrity) that Hillary lacks?

If instead you are arguing that we should choose a third canidate, then by all means go ahead, I and many others will listen to you, indeed you may have a very good point.

The purpose of this diary is to facilitate a discusions that's been underpinning of sveral recent entries:
 Are we doomed as a party? Basically, my question is that if this Wirght stuff ruins Obama's crossover appeal, adn if the Ferraro dog whistle ruined Hill among African Americans, have we in the last week committed mass suicide?

Or is this all just blog hype, Obama and Hillary both remaining viablility adn the seeming polarization only an online phenomenon?

This was sent out by Team Obama communications dept. This is the best answer to this crappy Clinton memo.

From: Bill Burton
Sent: Wed 3/12/2008 6:36 PM
To: Bill Burton
Subject: FW: The Clinton Memo... as annotated by the Obama communicationsdepartment

To: Interested Parties

From: Clinton Campaign

Date: Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Re: Keystone Test: Obama Losing Ground [Get ready for a good one.]

The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can't win there, how will he win the general election?

[Answer: I suppose by holding obviously Democratic states like California and New York, and beating McCain in swing states like Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Virginia and Wisconsin where Clinton lost to Obama by mostly crushing margins. But good question.]

After setbacks in Ohio and Texas, Barack Obama needs to demonstrate that he can win the state of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the last state with more than 15 electoral votes on the primary calendar and Barack Obama has lost six of the seven other largest states so far - every state except his home state of Illinois.

[If you define "setback" as netting enough delegates out of our 20-plus-point wins in Mississippi and Wyoming to completely erase any delegate advantage the Clinton campaign earned out of March 4th, then yeah, we feel pretty setback.]

Pennsylvania is of particular importance, along with Ohio, Florida and Michigan, because it is dominated by the swing voters who are critical to a Democratic victory in November. No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania since 1948. And no candidate has won the Democratic nomination without winning Pennsylvania since 1972.

[What the Clinton campaign secretly means: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT WE'VE LOST 14 OF THE LAST 17 CONTESTS AND SAID THAT MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA WOULDN'T COUNT FOR ANYTHING. Also, we're still trying to wrap our minds around the amazing coincidence that the only "important" states in the nominating process are the ones that Clinton won.]

But the Obama campaign has just announced that it is turning its attention away from Pennsylvania.

[Huh?]

This is not a strategy that can beat John McCain in November.

[I don't think Clinton's strategy of losing in state after state after promising more of the same politics is working all that well either.]

In the last two weeks, Barack Obama has lost ground among men, women, Democrats, independents and Republicans - all of which point to a candidacy past its prime.

["A candidacy past its prime." These guys kill me.]

For example, just a few weeks ago, Barack Obama won 68% of men in Virginia, 67% in Wisconsin and 62% in Maryland. He won 60% of Virginia women and 55% of Maryland women. He won 62% of independents in Maryland, 64% in Wisconsin and 69% in Virginia. Obama won 59% of Democrats in Maryland, 53% in Wisconsin and 62% in Virginia. And among Republicans, Obama won 72% in both Virginia and Wisconsin.

But now Obama's support has dropped among all these groups.

[That's true, if you don't count all the winning we've been up to. As it turns out, it's difficult to maintain 40-point demographic advantages, even over Clinton]

In Mississippi, he won only 25% of Republicans and barely half of independents. In Ohio, he won only 48% of men, 41% of women and 42% of Democrats. In Texas, he won only 49% of independents and 46% of Democrats. And in Rhode Island, Obama won just 33% of women and 37% of Democrats.

[I'm sympathetic to their attempt to parse crushing defeats. And I'm sure Rush Limbaugh's full-throated endorsement of Clinton didn't make any difference. Right]

Why are so many voters turning away from Barack Obama in state after state?

[You mean besides the fact that we're ahead in votes, states won and delegates?]

In the last few weeks, questions have arisen about Obama's readiness to be president. In Virginia, 56% of Democratic primary voters said Obama was most qualified to be commander-in-chief. That number fell to 37% in Ohio, 35% in Rhode Island and 39% in Texas.

[Only the Clinton campaign could cherry pick states like this. But in contrast to their logic, in the most recent contest of Mississippi, voters said that Obama was more qualified to be commander in chief than Clinton by a margin of 55-42.]

So the late deciders - those making up their minds in the last days before the election - have been shifting to Hillary Clinton. Among those who made their decision in the last three days, Obama won 55% in Virginia and 53% in Wisconsin, but only 43% in Mississippi, 40% in Ohio, 39% in Texas and 37% in Rhode Island.

[If only there were enough late deciders for the Clinton campaign to actually be ahead, they would really be on to something.]

If Barack Obama cannot reverse his downward spiral with a big win in Pennsylvania, he cannot possibly be competitive against John McCain in November.

[If they are defining downward spiral as a series of events in which the Clinton campaign has lost more votes, lost more contests and lost more delegates to us - I guess we will have to suffer this horribly painful slide all the way to the nomination and then on to the White House.]

[Thanks for the laughs guys. This was great.]

Time magazine's Halperin strongly implies this:

http://thepage.time.com/2008/01/27/teddy -is-ready/

This is very, very big and sustains a bounce.  

Five reasons:

1)  Symbolism:  One can knock the Kennedys as the past.  There's some powerful symbolism there among a great deal of Democratic voters -- particular older ones.

2)  Credibility:  He's still one of the leading D's out there in the Senate.  He's what many thought HRC was going to be in the Senate -- a major power broker in the D party,

3)  A nudge to superdelegates:  This provides momentum and provides a signal to others in Congress:  hop on board.

4)  Media:  This is two days of free media -- and provides an incredibly strong media narrative for one if not two of the nine days remaining,

5)  Massachussets:  It matters.  With Patrick, Kerry and Kennedy, that puts Obama in much stronger shape in MA.  The polls that took place before this endorsement and before SC?  Utterly meaningless.

The Western United States .  The fastest growing region in the country.  The largest number of new immigrants.  Home to Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, Napa Valley, Hollywood and our largest national parks, the source of most of America's fruit, beef and wine and much of our oil, land of dot-coms, ranches and retirement communities - rapidly becoming the most diverse part of America.

Hillary Country.

Hillary has generated excitement in Arizona , Colorado , Nevada , Washington , California and across the West, where she's given thousands of supporters the chance to see her up close. And the endorsements keep rolling in: former Washington Governor Gary Locke, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, California Senator Dianne Feinstein, Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, California Controller John Chiang, as well as Arizonan Raul Yzaguirre, former president of the National Council of La Raza, the leading Hispanic advocacy organization in the country.

Nowhere is Hillary's Western strength more evident than in Nevada , where a recent poll shows her breaking 50% in the primary and leading by 37 points.

And her support among local leaders only continues to grow, including: Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, former Governor Bob Miller, Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, former Las Vegas Mayor Jan Jones, State Treasurer Kate Marshall, Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, Dr. Robert Fowler, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, former Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa, Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce Chairman Robert Gomez and Reno-Sparks Indian Colony Chairman Arlan Menendez..

This summer, Hillary has drawn huge crowds across the Silver State , including 3,500 in Reno , more than 3,000 in Las Vegas and even 2,500 in rural Pahrump--where she's opened a regional field office.

The Clinton campaign has brought the Hillary tour to most of the Western states, and has a strong on-the-ground presence with offices, field organizers, and thousands of volunteers spanning the region.

And the West is turning out to be a stronger region for Hillary Clinton than anyone anticipated.

1.      Hillary Is Winning

Democratic Primary

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 20 points in the West, with an overwhelming lead in Arizona , California , Colorado , Nevada , Oregon , and Washington .

Recent Democratic Primary Polls

State     Poll                  Results                    

AZ    ARG Oct 5-9        HRC 41 / Edwards 16 / Obama 14       +25

CA   San Jose Oct 1-8    HRC 42 / Obama 20 / Edwards 14      +22

CO   ARG Sept 15-18      HRC 36 / Obama 20 / Edwards 19       +16

NV    ARG Oct 5-9       HRC 51 / Edwards 14 / Obama 11        +37

OR   Riley Aug 10-15     HRC 26 / Obama 18 / Edwards 17       +8

WA  S Vision Oct 5-7     HRC 48 / Obama 22 / Edwards 10      +26

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 30 points among Latinos, more than 40 points among women, more than 20 points among men, more than thirty points among whites and more than 10 points among African-Americans.  She also wins among urban, suburban and rural voters.

General Election

Hillary is winning the general election in New Mexico , a state which Bush won in 2004, and in California , Oregon and Washington .

Together with Hawaii , this means Hillary Clinton is starting with two-thirds of the electoral votes in the West.

And because of her unique ability to take advantage of changing demographics, Hillary can also turn Colorado , Arizona , Nevada and Montana from Red to Blue.  Bill Clinton was the only Democrat since 1968 to win these states, and Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat positioned to win them in 2008.

Hillary has an 8 point lead over Rudy Giuliani nationally in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, and she leads by more than 40 points among Latinos, 18 points among women, 13 points among moderates and more than 80 points among African-Americans in that poll and other recent polls - all crucial voter blocks in the West and nationally.

General Election

State        Poll                Results            

CA   Surv USA Sept 14-16      HRC 57 / Giuliani 37          +20                                

                                      HRC 60 / Thompson 34   +26      

                                      HRC 63 / Romney 30     +33

NM   Surv USA Sept 14-16       HRC 51 / Giuliani 43         +8

                                      HRC 53 / Thompson 42   +11

                                      HRC 54 / Romney 39     +15

OR Surv USA Sept 14-16          HRC 46 / Giuliani 44          +2  

                                      HRC 49 / Thompson 42   +7

                                      HRC 51 / Romney 38    +13

WA  Survey USA Aug 10-12        HRC 55 / Giuliani 40          +15

                                      HRC 57 / Thompson 38   +19

                                      HRC 57 / Romney 36     +21

2. Why Hillary Is Winning

Changing Demographics

Two key groups help explain why the West is breaking for Hillary: Latinos and women.  They were the swing voter groups whose movement towards Bush gave him victory in 2004 and whose support will be vital to a Democratic victory in 2008.  And Hillary has stronger support among these groups than any other Democratic or Republican candidate.

   * Latinos favor Hillary Clinton by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary and more than 40 points in the general election.
    * Women made up 54 percent of the electorate last time, and they make up an even bigger slice of the Democratic primary - including 59 percent in Arizona , where the last two governors were both women.  Women favor Hillary Clinton by more than 40 points in the Democratic primary and 18 points in the general election.
    * An overwhelming 94 percent of young women say they would turn out to vote for the first woman president because it would be important to them.  And a 10 percent increase in women turning out for Hillary Clinton alone would flip New Mexico , Nevada and Colorado to the Democrats.

These demographic trends are a big part of the reason Democrats recently picked up a US Senate seat in Montana , the Colorado governor's race, House seats in Colorado , Arizona and California and the Oregon state legislature.

Hillary's Message and Lifetime of Achievement on Issues that Matter to Western Voters

Why are Westerners so crazy about Hillary Clinton?  Because on the issues that matter to Western voters - like sensible immigration reform, environmental protection, alternative energy, Yucca Mountain, choice, health insurance for children, reducing the budget deficit and ending the Iraq war - Hillary is the only candidate with the experience and record of accomplishment to get the job done.

And Hillary has been reaching out to women and Latinos more than any other campaign - with a bilingual Website and a Website for Women for Hillary, and extensive national and local outreach to both of these core groups, communicating her historic message of change, leadership and experience.

The old adage says as goes the West so goes the country.  If that's true, it's just another sign that Hillary Clinton is poised to win.

Penn released this memo on Friday in anticipation of Hillary Rodham Clinton's trip to Nevada  called "Ready to Lead in the West" .

For more information about her trip to Nevada :

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4035

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

She discussed her plans for healthcare in  " A Discussion on Healthcare with Hillary Clinton " at East Las Vegas Community Center

For more information about how the campaign is doing in Nevada.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4033

Anyone who hasn't read the book by Thomas F. Schaller,          

" Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South "

should read it. He's bottomline forget the south and look west in the general election .

I am for a 50 state strategy in local and state level but not on a presidential level especially not in 08 , anyone who claims he/she can win in the deep south I hope is just using it as a campaign strategy in the primary election but I expect our candidates to use their resources and fund strategically in the general. Its okay if you talk about winning in missisipi , alabama to rile up as long as when you get into the general you use your resources in iowa , missouri , ohio and other western state.

Taylor Marsh has an interesting interview with Thomas F. Schaller, the podcast is up and I recommend it as a pretty good listen.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/taylor_marsh_ live.php  

The Clinton campaign understands that the battle is going to be in the west (i.e. South West and Midwest ) , I hope other campaigns do as well.

The Pre - Season is over and we are going into the final stretch of the campaign , the intensity of the campaign is going to reach a feverish pitch . Going into the fall campaign the position of Hillary Rodham Clinton has strengthened in all facets of the campaign , She has stretched her lead in the polls and soldified her position as the frontrunner both nationally and in all other states except Iowa were She is competitve , its important to note she started her campaign late but her campaign has since picked up steam over the July 4th weekend .

The Associated Press has a write - up that declares Hillary Rodham Clinton the winner of the pre-season and shows how the early states are shaping up 4 months to go , beginning in Iowa . Its a recommended read for everyone , even non clinton supporters.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iUmzh pKDYkzYIeGyArNNQRz0bnOg

Craig Crawford also has an interesting analysis of the state of the race going into the final lap of the campaign .

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20070901/pl_c q_politics/craigcrawfords1600thepreseaso nsover_1  

There are 3 articles I would like to draw your attention to and I think they are worthy of reading . Its kinda of like a flashback , its written by Mark Penn and James Carville on how Hillary could win the presidency and how she would energize different segments of the population , and I must say they were right on point with their analysis , we see the dynamic playing out in the democratic primaries and in states like Ohio , Florida which they discussed.

THE POWER OF HILLARY :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2006/06/30/AR2006063001478. html

CLINTON'S POWERPOINTER :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2007/04/29/AR2007042901661. html

MARK PENN ON HILLARY AND LATINOS :

http://www.nyobserver.com/2007/hillary-l atinos

Sure there have been  few stumbles along the way , like the leak of the internal memo about the role of Iowa in the campaign to the New York Times ,

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/23/us/pol itics/23text-clinton.html?ex=1188878400& amp;en=7de1cac395b9e796&ei=5070

And the strong rebuttal from the Clinton Camp :

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/23/us/pol itics/23cnd-clinton.html?ex=1188878400&a mp;en=09442403394e3c4c&ei=5070

Then there was the Norman Hsu glitch in which the campaign swiftly acted to do the right thing . It helped put out the smoke that was beginning to turn into fire . If you wondered why the other campaign didn't jump on the story , the article below might give you a reason :

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20070831/pl_c q_politics/craigcrawfordstrailmixedwards andobamathrowingnostonesatclintonshsucon nection_1

There has been significant points in the campaign that were turning points for her ;

The most significant one was at the first debate , when the question was asked of the potential presidents what they were going to do if there was a terror strike on the nation.

There was the unveiling of her first ad , a rallying cry for the " Invisible " which was a great ad in my opinion and is helping her in Iowa.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/video/46.a spx

She is hitting the talk show circuit more and She has appearances scheduled for popular day time TV shows that appeal to one of her targeted constituencies , women . You can watch her top 10 lists on the Letterman show at the link below :

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/blog/view/ ?id=12377 .

Overall , I am sure most Clinton supporters must be really thrilled where her campaign is as we head into the final Lap . Her field organization is good , you can read this article to have an idea how the campaign is organizing its volunteers :

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg i?f=/c/a/2007/08/21/MN3GRKSGH.DTL&fe ed=rss.news

Her fundraising has been retooled , she is focusing on small donor fundraising more than she did in prior quarters and it is likely She is going to raise significantly higher than She raised in prior quarters . More people are flocking to her campaign as they see her and realize She is not the same caricature they had been led to believe , Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute made this comment about Hillary Rodham Clinton on August 8 , 2007 .

"Sen. Clinton is inching ahead. Not only does she lead by a nose in two of the most important swing states in the Electoral College, but she is turning around independent and Republican voters who previously viewed her negatively,"

"In the last two months the share of voters who view her favorably has increased to about 50 percent - an important milestone - while the numbers who view her unfavorably has dropped. It is not huge movement, but it is consistent across all three states," Brown added.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?Rele aseID=1089 .

She has been endorsed by many of the influential leaders in the early primary states in Iowa , New Hampshire , Nevada and South Carolina. Her endorsements by the most influential African American leaders in South Carolina like Jon Mattews , Dick Riley , Linda Shortt , Joe Riley are going to prove to be crucial in helping her win South Carolina .

To know how important these endorsements are and for a complete guide of how to win the South Carolina primaries , I'll urge those who are interested  to read this whole article , it has all the information you need for victory in the Palmetto State , the information on there is useful for all candidates , especially for Obama for whom I think South Carolina is his " last stand " :

http://newspaperads.thestate.com/SS/Page .aspx?&secid=29013&pagenum=1

As we move into the next phase its going to get tougher and everyone should be ready for the battle ahead . I know the Clinton campaign will be ready and for a preview of what the competitors will be campaigning on in the fall , read this memo.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2007/08/edwards_will_again_push_cli nto.php

The campaign is in great shape and She couldn't have handled the last 6 months any better than She did.

On a lighter note this was the song I hoped She will pick as her campaign song , it gets played at the rallies and events but I was mad it wasn't her top choice although I love Celine too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtYBQXIeL Rw

Its a good song . Who knows She might end up using it in the general election.  

Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite across the atlantic for the top job of President of the United States .

Our allies in Europe i.e. you know the ones Bush threw under the bus , yeah , they want Hillary Clinton to be president so She can repair our image. Lets not forget that the arab world also choose Hillary overwhelmingly.

Here is a link to the poll conducted in Britain, France, Germany and Italy .

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/ hillaryclinton/story/0,,2158408,00.html

There was a prior poll showing she was the choice of the arab world:

http://www.sys-con.com/read/392942.htm

She is also shown to be the best democrat for Isreal

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosne rPage.jhtml

There is an interesting article that explains why she is the best to deal with middle eastern issues :

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosne rBlog.jhtml?itemNo=890565&contrassID =25&subContrassID=0&sbSubContras sID=1&listSrc=Y&art=1

No wonder Bill Clinton always emphasizes that the first day she steps into the white house our relationship with the world will be repaired , the arab worlds likes you and Isreal also chooses you . This bodes well for the US , because we can get back to being the " honest broker " we used to be.

Hillary Clinton is also seen as a hero to young americans.

Asked to name their heroes, young Americans surveyed by The Associated Press and MTV make their parents the collective top pick. Twenty-nine percent choose their mothers, 21 percent name their fathers and 16 percent pick their parents without specifying which one. Allowed to choose as many heroes as they'd like, nearly half mention at least one of their folks.

Next in line as the poll's top heroes: 11 percent choose friends, 10 percent God, 8 percent their grandmother, 7 percent their brother and 5 percent a teacher or professor .

Martin Luther King is named by 4 percent, making the late civil rights leader the most frequently mentioned historical figure or celebrity. Winning 1 percent each are former Vice President Al Gore, television personality Oprah Winfrey, President Bush, golfer Tiger Woods, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and the late Steve Irwin, the crocodile hunter.

http://www.davisenterprise.com/articles/ 2007/08/29/news/137new0.txt

Even Fidel Castro couldn't help himself , however I don't think thats an endorsement you want to have.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/08/28/c astro.clinton.obama/index.html?section=c nn_latest

Hillary and Bill Clinton will be campaigning together again in New Hampshire and Iowa . This will be fun , I wish I could be there to see it , however the good folks of Iowa and New Hampshire will be the lucky ones . This will be a boost to Hillary  Clinton in those two states . For those who thought Bill didn't help her in the last go around i.e. July 4th roll out , Chris Bowers , not a friend to Hillary , has a post that disputes that and I generally agree with him . Both of them campaigning in Iowa , was a turning point of Hillary's campaign in Iowa. It was struggling a bit at that point and they were even thinking of pulling out but that trip brought life into her campaign and She has been moving up ever since.

http://www.openleft.com/frontPage.do

Finally , a little bit of follow up to the Norman Hsu story , Hillary Clinton has thankfully moved fast to donate his money to charity . That was a good move , I placed a call to her campaign and told a staffer I hoped She donated the money to charity and gladly they followed through . She said other supporters have called to. Other Dems to have started to turn his money to charity too .e.g. Al Franken ,Reps. Michael Honda and Doris Matsui of California and Rep. Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania . I haven't heard from Obama though , I suspect he will give his donation to charity too , it won't be wise for him to be one of the last to turn back the campaign donation , he probably will do that before the day is over.