Obama Approval Drops, But Still Enjoying Honeymoon

Yesterday's round of Gallup polling showed Barack Obama's approval rating sliding down to 56 percent -- the lowest mark yet found in the poll. While it would be hasty to conclude that this number is, in itself, meaningful (though don't be surprised to see the cable newsers do so) as this number has occurred just once in Gallup polling, and the two previous times the President's approval rating hit 57 percent it immediately jumped back up to around 60 percent or above, these results should serve as a warning shot to the White House.

That all said, by Gallup's own definition, any approval rating north of 55 percent indicates a continuing honeymoon period for a President. And at present, with an approval rating of 56 percent or above into July, President Obama now holds the longest honeymoon period in two decades, bested recently by only George H.W. Bush. Indeed, if the President can right his course -- perhaps through successful confirmation hearings for Sonia Sotomayor -- he has a real shot at holding the distinction of the second longest honeymoon period in 40 years.

To reiterate, these aren't the greatest numbers the President has seen, and the trend has to be at least a bit disheartening. That said, a little perspective indicates that Barack Obama is doing better than his two immediate predecessors in terms of popular opinion, and still holds a rather strong approval rating (regardless of what the cable nets say).



Display:


the economy is still the biggest concern... (none / 0)

and voters don't seem to feel like everything has turned around yet.  most people are still scared.

unlike political polling, public opinion polling does really allow for follow-up.  i'd be interested to know what degree the budget crises in various states influences this particular opinion poll.  i suspect the aggregate news of states in trouble is not giving voters the opportunity to have more confidence in the economy...


"We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it." - President Obama, Sept 9, 2009
by bored now on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 07:50:18 AM EST

Re: the economy is still the biggest concern... (none / 0)

I would say most voters don't feel that anything has turned around economically.  And to make matters worse, all they hear is how the banking system is now more stable while banks revise lending/credit terms and increase fees with no real notice to their customers.  S long as most Americans continue to ask, where did all that stimulus money go?  Obama's numbers will continue to decline.  


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 02:26:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Unless you're in New York (none / 0)

The two most common words I've heard around here in the past month are "What recession?"

Restaurants are packed, malls are packed...I waited on line for over 20 minutes at a Queen Starbucks the other day. I was at Citi Field last night and the places was...well packed.

If this is a recession, I'd hate to see what the next booming economy is going to look like.


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 04:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unless you're in New York (none / 0)

I do live in NYC and the recession is apparent if you look.  For example, major law firms (including the one I work for) have been laying off staff and lawyers all over the place.  They have also deferred the next class of lawyers.  My brother who is a bridge painter has been unable to find employment this season so far.  All reports I have read about the baseball stadia is that they are half empty at nearly every game.  Granted, I have not witnessed this because I am not a fan of baseball (boring).  The number of Starbucks in the city is on a steady decline and businesses are going out at a regular rate.  Try looking at some news reports and statistics instead of drawing grand conclusions from your anecdotal experience.


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 04:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How incredibly wrong (none / 0)

I've been to Citi Field six times since April and all six times, the place has been nearly full...much fuller than I saw Shea in the 90's. I have pictures, I'll be sure to send it to those who claim the field is mostly empty all the time.

I trust my own experiences over news reporter and statistics...I say this as an experienced journalist myself.


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:12:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How incredibly wrong (none / 0)

You do realize that the new stadium has fewer seats than Shea, no?  

I find it surprising that a so-called "experienced journalist" could be so myopic as to ignore data outsdie his/her own experience.  This is akin to my saying, the five times I've been to Seattle it was very sunny, so I will choose to believe Seattle is always sunny, regardless of what anyone else says.  How do you get yourself there?  Are you citing your experience on a high school newspaper?


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:47:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If I go to Seattle five times in a month (2.00 / 1)

and it's sunny, there's reason to believe Seattle is sunny pretty often, no?

For your imformation, I have a BA in Broadcast Journalism and a J.D. was a focus in Media Law...worked for the NY Daily News, Newsday, ABC and PBS.

And you?


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 06:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unless you're in New York (none / 0)

Here are some NYC unemployment figures for your edification:  http://www.labor.state.ny.us/pressreleas es/2009/June18_2009.htm.

NYC has a 9% unemployment rate, up from 5.1% last May.  What recession, indeed.


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 04:49:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's nice (none / 0)

almost everyone I talk to seems to think there's no recession here.

and I guess they're right seeing as 9% is below the national average.


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:10:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's nice (none / 0)

That's some tortured logic you're applying there- because the recession may be worse in other parts of the country, that means there's no recession in NY?  That's rich.  

You call yourself a reporter and you try to draw conclusions on the state of the NYC economy on the basis of statements made by friends?  And, on top of that, you do not accept any reporting which contravenes the views of your friends?  Well, I guess this is the state of the fourth estate.  

For others who are less impervious to facts, here's a report on NYC baseball attendance, showing it is down this year.  http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/05/15 the-count-new-stadiums-fewer-seats


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yet still up substantially from the 1990's (none / 0)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ NYM/attend.shtml

I guess the economy REALLY sucked then, huh?

And despite this, the Yankees are still #1 in attendance.

Leading to my originally point...the economy in New York isn't nearly as bad as it is elsewhere.


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 06:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yet still up substantially from the 1990's (none / 0)

No, your original point was, what recession?


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 07:07:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My original point (none / 0)

was that people I talk to don't see how there IS a recession...there may be one, but many feel it's been overblown.

or as a couple of people have said; "Made up by the liberal media to allow Obama to spend taxpayer money"


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 07:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm in New York now (none / 0)

I don't know how accurate a barometer that is.  Big cities have rich people.  Manhattan in particular has a bigger spread between rich and poor than Guatemala.  The point is that you're going to see a lot of consumers no matter what the state of the economy is.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 09:50:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, But Still Enjoying (2.00 / 1)

Can somebody refresh my memory of G.W.B's timeline?  Because my really vague memory was that he was sworn into office and then kept his popularity high by invading everyone, all the time.

I think it was a model that Bill Clinton tried to emulate later by bombing Iraq as his first act in office.  Hardly anyone remembers this, but the second Clinton got into office, he said that the U.S. had uncovered an assassination plot against Bush issued by Baghdad, and so he bombed some warehouse in punishment.  Killed a security guard.  


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 08:17:52 AM EST

i don't have time to answer you, specifically... (2.00 / 1)

but you can look it up yourself, if you're really interested...


"We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it." - President Obama, Sept 9, 2009
by bored now on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 08:25:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:specifically... (none / 0)

Thanks, that was really interesting.

Reagan had a honeymoon, and then was in the absolute tank until 1983.  Clinton didn't really pull out of the doldrums until early 2004.

On the other hand, this era GWB was more popular than I'd remembered.  He was pretty much in low Obama territory - mid to upper 60s until 9/11.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:40:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, But Still Enjoying (none / 0)

From http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/ 1019-05.htm>commondreams
The circumstances of the alleged plot, which ended in a trial and conviction of 11 Iraqis and three Kuwaitis, have always evoked skepticism, although Clinton himself was apparently sufficiently convinced after receiving reports from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to order a missile strike on the Iraqi intelligence headquarters in Baghdad that killed six civilians in June, 1993.
CDS?
by usedmeat on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 12:07:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, But Still Enjoying (2.00 / 2)

Civilian Death Sympathy?  Hell no - I love innocent blood.

btw, wouldn't it be hilarious if Castro exploded a bomb in Washington and killed some civilians?  Because American plots on his life are beyond dispute.  Anyway, I'll let you get back to your Big Bubba Shrine.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, But Still Enjoying (2.00 / 2)

Oh, but thanks for the correction on the number of deaths - I was thinking of the security guard because I got it confused with yet ANOTHER boneheaded airstrike with dubious motives from the era.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:21:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, But Still Enjoying (2.00 / 1)

Did you read the link?  Because the part he quoted is literally the only thing in the entire article that doesn't say "the plot was bogus.  It was considered suspect at the time.  It's even moreso now."  He conveniently left that out, not that it matters.

There is literally nothing Clinton could do that some fake-progressives wouldn't crawl over broken glass to defend.  There was even someone the other day who said, about his signing of DOMA, "good for him".  It's sick.


by meggers on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:55:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Offense not Defense (none / 0)

Sure nothing to be alarmed about  ... maybe.

I think Obama big mistake right now is not taking on the Republicans head on, putting them on the spot and knocking them back on their heels.

He made this mistake with Hillary early in the primaries and it is one reason the fight got dragged out.  

Obama needs to engage a bit more himself and do a better job of getting his surrogates out in front, on point, on message and driving the debate.

Instead the Republicans fling attacks at him which go ignored for days and then he responds, usually with a transparant pander.

Think of the deficit attacks early on.  Then he calls a cheese ball cabinet meeting and tells them find a 100 million in savings.  It looks like a naked politcal farse to appease critics.

Think of Iran when he got attacked for a few days for not being strong enough, didn't push back, and then relented with a noticibly stronger statement.   Reporters were rigth to ask was the statement in response to Republican attacks?

We are seeing it with energy and health care.  The Republicans are on the attack - the lies and fear mongering are off the charts - and the White House is no where to be seen on the offensive.

We are seeing it with North Korea.   Republicans are outright calling him a wimp.  

In short Obama has to stop being timid and play OFFENSE not defense.


by RichardFlatts on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 08:54:22 AM EST

I think that you are exactly right (2.00 / 1)

Obama needs to go on both offense and defense.  I agree that he needs more surrogates.

I am surprised that Rahm hasn't been more aggressive on that front.


by puma on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 08:59:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think that you are exactly right (none / 0)

My guess is Obama is restraining Rahm. Biden as well.

If Obama thinks he can beat the Republicans playing nice he is fooling himself and will suffer for it.


by RichardFlatts on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 09:12:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What has hurt Obama this week (2.00 / 2)

Is that he has been out of the country and the media instead is focusing on the economy and the stimulus.  As a result, Obama isn't out there talking about what his plans are.

Obama needs to give some serious straight talk to Americans.  He needs to explain that this is going to take a long time for the economic recovery to happen.  He needs to explain that the stimulus package is suppose to happen over an 18 month period not to happen in just a few months.

He needs to explain that the unemployment rate will get worse before it gets better.

He needs to go over why there is a deficit and what his plans are for the deficit including why health care reform is so important to bring down the deficit in the long run.

Obama needs to go back to his "professor" self.


by puma on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 08:57:08 AM EST

Doug Schoen LOL (none / 0)

"This is a huge sea change that is playing itself out in American politics," said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. "Independents who had become effectively operational Democrats in 2006 and 2008 are now up for grabs and are trending Republican.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/070 9/24717.html#ixzz0KnZHSqkN&C

Yet another reason why I trust my own experiences over news and statistics.


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:20:28 PM EST

Re: Obama Approval Drops, (none / 0)

The best historical analogues are Reagan and FDR.  Clinton had the benefit of an already upturning business cycle when he took office so time was always on his side.

Reagan never let anyone forget that it was THE CARTER RECESSION.  For two years his surrogates flogged that.  FDR for his part did the same thing.  Also, he made sure that people were confident he was doing all he could.  I think of Obama were to just focus on those two things - remind everyone where this global depression came from, and be constantly seen as on the job, he'd do much better.


by meggers on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 05:31:55 PM EST

Re: Obama Approval Drops, (none / 0)

The problem is that many people don't believe Obama is doing all he can to benefit them.  They see a bailout of bankers without any quid pro quo (ie, better banking practices).  And to top it off, you have the admin and the cable news shows talking about a rebound (presently put on hold) which is exactly what people have heard for the past twenty years.  A profitable wall street does not necessarily trickle down to the little people.  And all they hear, yet again, is how much better things are becoming when nothing has gotten better for them.  They have a right to be angry and distrustful and they will grow increasingly more so because they were promised more.  


by orestes on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 06:31:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, (none / 0)

The White House has to share some of the blame for the following reasons:

1. When they had the chance to push through a big stimulus like Krugman, Stiglitz, Roubini etc were calling for they decided to pare the bill down to get a veneer of bipartisanship. The other voices were frozen out. The warning that Paul Krugman gave then was this: if the WH does not get it right the first time, coming back to congress for another trillion dollars will be political suicide and an impossible task. Sure enough, we are back at that point. The stimulus overseers have also done a poor job of releasing money in a timely manner and winning the public opinion battle.

2. TARP in its first incarnation was wholly unpopular. But what made it more unpopular was that more money was released to Citi, BofA, AIG and the big delinquent banks without any change in the board and without Wall street facing any form of punishment. So what do we have now? Credit, while it has started flowing, is still not where it should be even after the bailout. Today Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley is bunching its toxic assets with some nominally good assets and selling them with a AAA rating. If that's not enough Warren Buffet has gone on record on GMA criticizing the government's plan to force private entities buy toxic assets. His words:

Buffett also criticized the government's public-private investment plan, through which private investors are supposed to buy so-called toxic assets off the balance sheets of ailing banks that received billions in government aid.

"I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money. I just think that Wall Street owes the American people one at this point," he said.

3. Finally if Obama does plan to keep blaming the previous administration for the current economic debacle he is not doing a very good job of hard sell. You do not see his surrogates out there saying so in this 24/7 news generation. Moreover, he spent a lot of political capital with the TARP and auto bailout. For better or for worse he now owns this economy and his advisory staff (Summers and Geithner) have done a piss poor job till date.


by tarheel74 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 07:15:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Approval Drops, (none / 0)

I agreed with Krugman at the time. But now, people are talking about it as if a larger stimulus could have gone through if the Administration had just asked for one.  As it was, they had pare the bill down not for a "veneer of bipartisanship", but to get it passed.  Remember?  It got through the Senate by one vote.  One vote.  If he had started out asking for a larger one, I don't know if that would have made a difference - the conditions the Republican Senators put on it didn't have dollar amounts so much as they targeted specific programs.

Or maybe it would have made a difference.  The point is that it's a tactical question that no one knows the answer to.  If I have an absolute lock hand in poker and make a medium sized bet on the end that gets called, I go "damn, maybe I should have bet more."  But then again, that might have just gotten the whole bet folded.  Same principle.  Obama comes to the Senate with a multi-trillion dollar stimulus, and maybe the Republicans negotiate from there.  Or maybe they slam the door.  I wanted him to propose a bigger one, but I don't know what would have happened and neither do you.

Second of all, Obama owns this economy?  In what way?  Factually, no.  Perceptually?  Well yes and no, and it's a fluid perception, but if you're going to simplify the issue, why would want to land on the side of making Fox's case for them?


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 07:29:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One forgets (2.00 / 1)

that when then Pres-elect Obama proposed the stimulus, the number was equal to the one Krugman was promoting...but then Krugman upped the number, because he, like everyone, didn't see how bad the situation was (Damn the Vice President for speaking the truth).

The reason why the President-elect couldn't keep upping the number when Krugman did is exactly why Krugman doesn't want to work in politics...because then he would have to accept that a politician, especially a Democratic one, can't go before the people and say "We need $800 billion" and the next week say "Hey, let's make that $1 trillion" and then the next week say, "Actually, I think we need $1.3 trillion" then go back and said "you know what, $1.6 trillion will work"

At some point the people go "WTF?"


Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat
by DTOzone on Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 07:36:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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