MyDD :: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating

One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:19:04 AM EST

The Pollster.com trend estimate puts Barack Obama's approval rating at 54.2 percent, with 40.1 percent disapproving -- a good deal below the 60 percent/33 percent spread found in the latest Gallup polling. Why the difference? Ask Rasmussen Reports. Taking out the automated pollster from the mix, Barack Obama's approval rating is a net 7 percentage points better. Interesting, no?

Tags: Barack Obama, Approval Rating (all tags)

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Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

ABC News has him at 49% today...

House Health Care Bill gets 56% approval at the moment...

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:41:37 AM EST

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

* 59% *

Sorry, big typo!

OBAMA IS AT 59%!!! That's FIFTY-NINE PERCENT

Didn't mean to scare y'all...

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:43:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

It took me a few tiems to get what you were saying.
So he's at 59%, I get it now.

by spirowasright on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 03:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

That approval rating is higher than where Reagan was at his 6 month time. Reagan's on the ABC poll was at 57%.

by puma on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 07:19:09 AM EST

A better average pollster is RCP (none / 0)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

This poll average just takes the average of all the polls of the week and Rasmussen is just one of the polls out of the group.

by puma on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 07:28:25 AM EST

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

Maybe people give an honest answer to the automated pollster because they fear the real person might be a cultist who will beat them up.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 08:21:33 AM EST

Cute (none / 0)

In all seriousness, I'm pretty sure that automated pollsters feature a significantly older audience... people who A) have more time to kill, and B) don't rely on cell phones as their primary telephone. Didn't McCain win the over 60 crowd?

You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 09:59:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cute (2.00 / 1)

I'm not sure if you're right - I can also imagine older respondents being more reluctant to play the button-pushing game - but surely there's SOME reason Rasmussen is way off from the results everyone else gets. I'd imagine the experts like Mark Blumenthal and Nate Silver have an understanding of the differences between an automated polling sample and a live sample - although I'd also imagine that if the difference was easy to quantify ("automated polls oversample elderly respondents by 10%") the automated pollsters would correct for it!

I believe Survey USA is also automated and there have at least been some election cycles where they turned out to be the gold standard, although it varies. So I don't think automated polling is inherently defective. But no matter how you slice it, if Rasmussen says one thing and five other polls say a different thing, the smart money says Rasmussen is the outlier.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 10:35:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cute (none / 0)

Rasmussen polls are of "likely voters". I don't know what the voter screen is of that, but I'm sure it's something like, "Did you vote for Nixon?" If you say no, you are too young to be considered "likely".

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 01:10:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cute (none / 0)

But all real Americans voted for Nixon!

All kidding aside, the very concept of "likely voters" this far in advance of an election is just silly.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 01:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

huh? (none / 0)

Keep Yelling, Nobody's Listening -SallyCat

by DTOzone on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:01:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

The Kos poll has him at 62% holding firm. Lower poll ratings feed into the manufactured media meme that momentum is starting to shift from him. A manufactured bit of psychodrama that all the cable and network TV media seems to be buying into.

by Bob H on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 09:12:09 AM EST

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (none / 0)

Seriously, Steve M. do you think that all other polling organizations are staffed by "cultist who will beat" respondents up?

Have you ever been polled or done any polling yourself? The last thing the polling org. caller would want to do is deviate from the script. They would not be employed long if they did, that is a terminatable offense.

by MichiganMark on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 09:43:21 AM EST

Re: One More Note on Obama's Approval Rating (2.00 / 1)

It's not whether they are actually staffed by cultists, it's whether poll respondents might have reason to fear such a thing. I'm sure we all remember what happened to that poor Ashley Todd.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 10:32:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why does anyone even look at Rasmussen anymore? (none / 0)

Seriously, they've favored Republicans/disfavored Democrats by about 5% for as long as I've paid attention.

You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 09:56:00 AM EST

Re: One More Note (none / 0)

I am not up on how cell phones factor into polling but I do know that use of cell phones as the primary phone (or only phone) is growing. How do pollsters account for this?

by RichardFlatts on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 11:15:33 AM EST

We remember that "poor Ashley Todd" (none / 0)

as being a self mutilating, race baiting, Obama hating wack job. Not a good example.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Todd _mugging_hoax

by MichiganMark on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 11:45:39 AM EST

Re: We remember that "poor Ashley Todd" (2.00 / 1)

Oh, I see someone has their liberal talking points in order today!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 11:47:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We remember that "poor Ashley Todd" (2.00 / 1)

Well Steve, sometimes people just don't get it...

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:10:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We remember that "poor Ashley Todd" (2.00 / 1)

I will not be lectured by someone who can't even find the "reply" button! ;)

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's not that it's an automated pollster (none / 0)

Automated pollsters can be every bit as accurate as live-person pollsters.

It's just the weighting and the sampling that they use is notoriously conservative-leaning. It could happen just as easily with a live-person calling (see Resurgent Republic).

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

by fbihop on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 03:33:37 PM EST

Rasmussen is on the GOP Payroll (none / 0)

check out how Rasmussen has been a recent "consultant" for the GOP and for G.W.Bush:

http://projects.publicintegrity.org/cons ultants/list.aspx?act=conDetail&id=1 22002

by jeopardy on Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 03:42:54 PM EST

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