MyDD :: Is Obama Actually Dropping in Ohio?

Is Obama Actually Dropping in Ohio?

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 06:24:50 AM EST

When Quinnipiac released polling out of Ohio earlier this week showing Barack Obama's approval rating in the state falling to 49 percent, conservatives smiled with glee. But were they a bit hasty? Perhaps.

According to the latest Research 2000 survey commissioned by Daily Kos, President Obama's favorability rating stands at 59 percent in Ohio, with 35 percent viewing him unfavorably. To be clear, a favorability rating is a different metric than an approval rating -- but in the case of Barack Obama it is a metric that tracks fairly closely with his approval rating, sitting roughly 4 points higher on average. At the least, these numbers -- which unlike Quinnipiac's polling finds that President Obama remains popular with independents, with a 57 percent favorability rating within the demographic -- raise serious questions as to whether the media jumped too quickly on the results of the earlier survey to proclaim that the President was sinking in the Buckeye State.

Tags: Ohio, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 4 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Is Obama Actually Dropping in Ohio? (none / 0)

I looked at the Quinnipiac poll, and there were some seriously whacked numbers in there...

Here's what it boils down to.. Most of Ohio still really likes Obama, but the red portions of Ohio really, really, really hate him, so his overall approval gets dragged down.

Also women still give him a 60% approval rating across the state..

So, basically, white republican men hate Obama a lot! Everyone else really likes him a lot... not much of a surprise...

Also, PPP did an Obama poll a couple of weeks ago, and he had a 51% approval rating in taht poll, but no one freaked out then...

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 10:40:00 AM EST

Re: Is Obama Actually Dropping in Ohio? (none / 0)

Cherry-picking numbersd and finding outliers.
So what else is new?

by spirowasright on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 11:46:22 AM EST

Close the shades and pretend the train is moving (none / 0)

Look. Obama will continue to suffer in the polls until the economy rebounds. To pretend otherwise is a bit Bresnevian.

For you kids, remember history. Reagen crushed Carter in a landslide because the economy was in a recession. (The incumbent party always looses in a recession and it has nothing to do with liberal or conservative.) When the economy continued to get worse, after two years, Reagen's approval ratings fell to 35%. However, at the end of two years the economy rebounded and Reagen was re-elected in the biggest landslide in history. Mondale was humiliated, only winning his home state. Obama is poised to do the same thing Reagen did because it is unlikely this recession will last until 2012.

So don't get too nervous about the polls yet - there is lots of time for the economy to turn around. But also don't pull the shades down and claim the train is moving.

by dMarx on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 03:30:48 PM EST

Re: Cl (none / 0)

The economy needs to rebound by Spring 2010. The 2010 elections are far more important than 2012. Those who worry about 2012 and not 2010 are making a HUGE mistake.

by Kent on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 06:16:27 PM EST
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