Bibi and His Atmosphere of Permanent Crisis

Barak Ravid writing in the left-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz paints a less than flattering view of the Likud government of Prime Minister Netanyahu. While other liberal progressive blogs ( Talking Points Memo, Firedoglake, and Newshoggers) have focused on comments that the Israeli Prime Minister refers to Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod, Obama's senior aides: as "self-hating Jews," I am more struck by the description of Israel's government as being in an "atmosphere of permanent crisis."

An atmosphere of permanent crisis has surrounded Netanyahu's bureau ever since he took office, so it was no surprise that the press conference also had an air of panic. The five advisers - National Security Adviser Uzi Arad, cabinet secretary Zvi Hauser, director general of the Prime Minister's Office Eyal Gabai, political adviser Ron Dermer and Nir Hefetz, who heads the public relations desk - arrived at the meeting without a prearranged, uniform message. Over and over, they cut each other off.

Hauser tried to convince the press that Netanyahu's zigzagging on the issue of value-added tax was a deliberate ploy coordinated with the other coalition parties. Arad once again lambasted U.S. President Barack Obama's refusal to honor understandings reached with his predecessor, George W. Bush, on the issue of the settlements, but argued that coordination with Washington on Iran had actually improved. Dermer emphasized Netanyahu's speech at Bar-Ilan University, which he said won international plaudits. And Hefetz denied that there was any panic in Netanyahu's bureau, attributing the friction there to "work-related pressure."

But despite the unified front they tried to present, it is clear that all of Netanyahu's aides dislike each other: They are constantly badmouthing each other and blaming each other for leaks. Arad, for example, demanded that Hauser undergo a lie-detector test and is now demanding the same of Hefetz. And the latter two say "it is impossible to work with" Arad.

Compounding the problem is an inexperienced bureau chief, Natan Eshel, and a former spokesman, Yossi Levy, who is still clinging to his office and refusing to give it up to his replacement, Hefetz - who, for his part, is kept out of half the discussions.

Netanyahu appears to be suffering from confusion and paranoia. He is convinced that the media are after him, that his aides are leaking information against him and that the American administration wants him out of office.

If this is true, it doesn't bode well for the prospects for peace in the Middle East.

The article goes on to note that:

Behind closed doors, Netanyahu's coalition partners - including Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman - have also expressed shock at his behavior. One senior minister told an aide that he is finding it very difficult to work with the premier. "He drives us mad," the minister said. "Every minute things change, and I am constantly busy doing maintenance on Netanyahu."

It's shocking to hear that Foreign Minister Lieberman is shocked at Netanyahu's behavior but it is extremely disconcerting to hear, again if this picture is wholly accurate, that Ehud Barak, a former general and Prime Minister, remains a part of this government. This is no way to run a government.



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Would be good news, if... (2.00 / 1)

This would actually be good news if there was a real alternative.  In a clear case of "just because you are paranoid doesn't meant they're not out to get you, Bibi is probably right that the Obama administration wants him out of office.  But at this particular moment--and things here do change rapidly--there isn't a clear alternative on the horizon.  

Labor has become a total joke.  It's a club of opportunistic rivals.  The "rebels," led by Yuli Tamir and Shelly Yachimovich, failed to block Barak from joining the coalition and have shown little interest in causing much trouble since.  Barak is personally deeply unpopular and does not seem to have grown out of the suicidal autocratic tendencies that torpedoes his own government back when he was seen as the great hope ("and he is a brilliant pianist to boot!") and "Rabin's successor.  Regardless, they have a measly 13 seats.  Yachimovich is promising.  I saw an interview with her the other night and was impressed.  Socio-economically and with regards to the Palestinians, she is the best representative of Labor's moribund social-democratic/neo-liberal tradition.  Unfortunately, she only entered politics a few years back after making a name for herself in TV jounalism (no Palin though, she was well respected.)

Livni is actually the most likely contender.  The problem is that her number two in Kadima, Shaul Mofaz, a hawkish former Ramatkal, Commander of the Joint Chiefs of the IDF is also an opportunist who only broke from Likud because he thought his own prospects were better in Kadima.  He lost the leadership to Livni quite narrowly, is very bitter, and is a constant threat to bolt, and take some central members with him.  Faced with a choice between a key spot shoring up Netanyahu and continuing to play second fiddle to Livni, whom he recently slammed with "she's a nice person, but she can't make the hard decisions" (and you all thought the sexism in US politics was bad), everyone thinks he'd run to Bibi.  That might spell the end of the Kadima experiment.  And though Livni is more of a realist and has displayed the temperament of potential quality statesperson, she's quite an entrenched nationalist herself.  If she could pull together a coalition, however, she might use Bibi's proclaimed "national consensus" on a "demilitarized Palestinian state" as cover for concessions leaning toward the left.  This past week she slammed Bibi's "state" talk as the height of hypocrisy.  Politically motivated, of course.  But likely spot on.  On the other hand, Bibi's position, if sincere, is probably not much to the right of where Rabin himself would ultimately have drawn the line.  That's the view of the Oslo skeptics on the left anyway.

Some have called for a Labor/Kadima merger.  I think it highly unlikely, due to the ambitious personalities of their leaders.  But it's not completely impossible.  But then there's that Oslo skepticism that doubts such an alignment would have the interest and the will to sign on to something that would be acceptable to the Palestinians.

Beyond that, I'm not sure there is much on the horizon at the moment.  Meretz is off the rails.  It is so identified as the "leftist" party that it would never command enough seats to be a central player.  And as a flank, it's support for the Gaza disaster has discredited it and it's support on the left has dwindled.  HADASH, a party I support, is too wedded to its communist heritage to be a true liberal option for most.  It weds progressive socio-economic perspectives to environmental initiatives and a strong support for two states.  HADASH, as a mixed Jewish-Arab party actually coined the phrase "Two States for Two Peoples," or at least popularized it.  One would think they'd be bi-nationalist, but as one of its MKs, Dov Henin argues, the idea of formally combining a first world economy with a third world economy overnight would lead to explosions, and he might be right.  But even most center-left Israelis see it as an "Arab party," which makes it moot, unfortunately and despicably.

So the only hope in the near term is that Bibi's instability might produce something unpredictable.  Perhaps his desperation will make him do something productive.  It's more likely to make him hole up in his bunker.  As a true neo-con, he sees history as primarily sinister and hazardous and does not recognize that it also presents possibilities.

All this could change next week.  Things are notoriously volatile in Israeli politics.  On the other hand, the past few decades seem to demonstrate the old adage that "the more things change the more they stay the same."


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 03:24:53 AM EST

Re: Would be good news, if... (2.00 / 1)

That bunker mentality is worrisome.

Thanks for the insights into the Kadima factions.


Follow me on Twitter.
by Charles Lemos on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 07:39:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ezrahi (none / 0)

Yes, a paranoid bunker mentality wedded to ideological entrenchment will always produce bad results, to venture an understatement.  Bibi indeed appears Nixonian at the moment.  The question is whether he could also be the realist Nixon who went to China.  In an interview last week, Political Scientist Yaron Ezrahi offered a more "optimistic" view of Netanyahu, which seems pretty close to Levy's:

"As a prime minister Netanyahu is irrelevant in terms of future relations between Palestinians and Israelis. I do not have the slightest doubt that Obama has told Netanyahu: 'Listen, evacuating the settlements and taking steps toward two states are first and foremost a vital American strategic interest. You have to help us sort out the Middle East. For your own good as well.'

"I don't think Netanyahu is an ideologue, despite his father. Netanyahu's opportunism is one of the most important assets of Israeli politics, because he responds to the environment. The advantage [Yitzhak] Rabin and [Shimon] Peres had was that they understood that the one who initiates can also determine the outcome, in contrast to the one who gets towed along. And Netanyahu gets towed.

"The towing enables Netanyahu to survive ... Clearly he does not possess the ability to withstand the tremendous forces in the West. Therefore he simply needs to buy time to create a certain distance between his moves and those of the White House. That distance gives him the minimal political power he needs: To look as if he is fighting on behalf of the interest of retaining Israel's territorial assets today. He will present this as a necessity, and not as an ideological decision, mainly for the benefit of right-wingers.

"Almost all of Israel's wars, except for the first Lebanon war, were wars of no choice. It is possible that Netanyahu will be the first to present a peace of no choice. Someone I know well wrote to a close adviser of Obama's: 'Netanyahu's political disability is that the Israeli public would ruthlessly punish any prime minister who endangers the strategic alliance between Israel and the U.S.' And that restriction on Netanyahu allows Obama vast room in which to maneuver."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1099 077.html


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Sun Jul 12, 2009 at 04:26:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Gideon Levy's take (2.00 / 1)

Don't want to pull a MainStreet and completely take over the comments section of an I/P diary, but here is an excerpt of Gideon Levy's related piece, entitled "Netanyahu's 'weakness' is good for Israel."  I find it a bit overly optimistic, but as always worthy of consideration:

If Netanyahu persists in his malleability, perhaps there is some hope on the horizon. In 100 days, it has already brought us a prime minister who champions the solution once advocated by the radical left - two states for two peoples. He has yet to do anything to advance the magic formula he has suddenly discovered, with horrifying belatedness, but perhaps just a little more pressure on the squeezable premier is what is needed for something to move around here.

Something will move here only if Netanyahu continues his impersonation of a weather vane, changing direction with every breeze. If Washington continues its pressure on him, perhaps there will be a real settlement freeze and then the start of evacuations. This would conflict with his worldview, if he indeed has one, but it would be an encouraging bit of news, and to hell with the slanderous accusations of being squeezable.

A frightened, scared Netanyahu could also prevent an unnecessary Israeli adventure in Iran. May God protect us from a "strong" prime minister, one who shows contempt for the entire world and the dangers inherent in such an operation and orders our wonderful pilots to set out on their way. It should be remembered, to his credit, that during his first term of office, Netanyahu avoided launching any wars or operations - not even a miniature Operation Defensive Shield.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1098 870.html


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 04:00:08 AM EST

Re: Gideon Levy's take (none / 0)

Thanks for your informative analysis. Having followed Netanyahu throughout his career, I find him incapable of seriously engaging in final settlement negotiations.  He's an extreme ideologue who completely believes that there's no such thing as peace with the Arabs because they can't be trusted. Thus, encorporation of most of the West Bank enhances Israeli security in his eyes. Even if he completely changed, his coalition tilts very sharply toward further settlements. He's a clever & verbally gifted politician who knows how to effectively mouth the words of NEGOTIATIONS without doing anything substantial.


by carter1 on Fri Jul 10, 2009 at 11:22:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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