Gallup: Republicans Continue to Hemorrhage Support

Via Chris Cillizza writing under the enjoyable headline "Gallup Poll: Republican Shrinkage Widespread" comes a brand spanking new crunching of the numbers from the venerable polling outfit showing some tough times for the Republican Party.

Comparing the average of all its data thus far in 2009 with its data culled over the course of 2001, Gallup finds that GOP self-identification has shrunk 5 percentage points (from 32 percent to 27 percent) while the Democrats' numbers have grown 3 percentage points (from 33 percent to 36 percent). The net Democratic advantage in this metric has gone from 1 percentage point to 9 percentage points, a shift from near partisan parity to clear partisan advantage.

The numbers are even more clear when the large share of the electorate now self-identifying as independent was asked whether it leaned towards one party or the other. Eight years ago, independents split evenly, giving the Democrats a narrow 45 percent to 44 percent advantage within the electorate when leaners were included. Today, the Democratic advantage is a whopping 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent.

Digging further into the data, literally only a single subgroup has not shifted at all towards the Democrats in the past eight years -- frequent churchgoers. Shifting only a point away from the Republicans were conservatives, those aged 65 and older and the nonwhite. African-American voters moved away from the Republicans during this time period by only 2 percentage points, and those without a college degree moved 3 percentage points away from the GOP during this window of time.

Outside of these groups, every other subgroup measured by Gallup moved at least 4 percentage points from Republicans to the Democrats over the past eight years. College graduates led the way in the move to the Democrats, shifting 10 points away from the GOP during the current decade. Younger voters (those age 18 to 19), Midwesterners, those earning below $30,000, those earning between $30,000 and $75,000, moderates, and infrequent churchgoers all moved 9 percentage points away from the Republican Party. That moderate number sticks out, in particular, as just 28 percent of those self-identifying as moderates either call themselves Republicans or lean to the Republican Party.

Cillizza's take seems about right. "Put simply: Toss-up demographic groups eight years ago have moved en masse in Democrats' favor, leaving the GOP with only its base still on its side." My simple take for the GOP: Ouch.



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Republicans' Support (none / 0)

Thus, my new sig:


1st Law of Obamadynamics: For every action, there is a greater than equal criticism. In advance.
by QTG on Mon May 18, 2009 at 08:01:41 PM EST

Re: Republicans' Support (2.00 / 1)

Can't talk.  Mouthful of Milk Duds.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Tue May 19, 2009 at 03:29:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

speaking of enjoyable headlines (none / 0)

From Ben Smith at Politico: GOP sounds alarm on Latino voter gap

The Republican Party has scarcely begun to repair a wound that threatens to confine it to minority status: its 2006 collapse among Hispanic voters.
[...]
"It's absolutely urgent. The demographics are there in black and white," said former Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas), a casualty of the Hispanic swing to the Democratic Party. "If we don't figure out a way to open our party up to more Hispanic voters, nothing else we do will matter. Mathematically, we can't get there from here."
[...]
There are stirrings of a Republican response. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has spoken with Hispanic leaders about creating a new organization to back Latino candidates. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele has made minority outreach a priority at the RNC. And some Republicans see an opening if Obama continues to defer action on overhauling immigration.

But so far, there are few visible attempts to reverse the trend.

"They're making no overt efforts to appeal to Hispanics again," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, whose new book cites the defection of Hispanics from the Republicans as a central cause of Obama's victory. "They all know it's a problem. They aren't talking about it, because they fear the anti-immigration wing of their party."

"They're afraid to even mention the word `Hispanic,'" he said.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Mon May 18, 2009 at 10:46:09 PM EST

Re: speaking of enjoyable headlines (none / 0)

It might be a good idea to cram Justice Sotomoyer down their throats.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Tue May 19, 2009 at 03:27:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is the end product of Rove's Plan (none / 0)

Appeal to the base! Appeal to the base! Well, if you only serve up raw meat for rabid right wingers as your platform and positions, everyone else will turn away. As the moderates, liberals, minorities, non-church goers, poor, etc. leave the party, the party becomes more and more intolerant of non-beleivers. So it becomes harder and harder to become more inclusive.

Rove strategy to win in 2002-2006 has helped kill his party.


by The Professor on Tue May 19, 2009 at 12:59:11 AM EST

Re: speaking (none / 0)

"There are stirrings of a Republican response. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has spoken with Hispanic leaders about creating a new organization to back Latino candidates. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele has made minority outreach a priority at the RNC.
http://www.dvdcdconverter.com And some Republicans see an opening if Obama continues to defer action on overhauling immigration. "
by Robert CJ on Mon May 25, 2009 at 05:14:00 AM EST


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