Via Chris Cillizza writing under the enjoyable headline "Gallup Poll: Republican Shrinkage Widespread" comes a brand spanking new crunching of the numbers from the venerable polling outfit showing some tough times for the Republican Party.
Comparing the average of all its data thus far in 2009 with its data culled over the course of 2001, Gallup finds that GOP self-identification has shrunk 5 percentage points (from 32 percent to 27 percent) while the Democrats' numbers have grown 3 percentage points (from 33 percent to 36 percent). The net Democratic advantage in this metric has gone from 1 percentage point to 9 percentage points, a shift from near partisan parity to clear partisan advantage.
The numbers are even more clear when the large share of the electorate now self-identifying as independent was asked whether it leaned towards one party or the other. Eight years ago, independents split evenly, giving the Democrats a narrow 45 percent to 44 percent advantage within the electorate when leaners were included. Today, the Democratic advantage is a whopping 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent.
Digging further into the data, literally only a single subgroup has not shifted at all towards the Democrats in the past eight years -- frequent churchgoers. Shifting only a point away from the Republicans were conservatives, those aged 65 and older and the nonwhite. African-American voters moved away from the Republicans during this time period by only 2 percentage points, and those without a college degree moved 3 percentage points away from the GOP during this window of time.
Outside of these groups, every other subgroup measured by Gallup moved at least 4 percentage points from Republicans to the Democrats over the past eight years. College graduates led the way in the move to the Democrats, shifting 10 points away from the GOP during the current decade. Younger voters (those age 18 to 19), Midwesterners, those earning below $30,000, those earning between $30,000 and $75,000, moderates, and infrequent churchgoers all moved 9 percentage points away from the Republican Party. That moderate number sticks out, in particular, as just 28 percent of those self-identifying as moderates either call themselves Republicans or lean to the Republican Party.
Cillizza's take seems about right. "Put simply: Toss-up demographic groups eight years ago have moved en masse in Democrats' favor, leaving the GOP with only its base still on its side." My simple take for the GOP: Ouch.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 6 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.