MyDD :: Prediction: Arlen Specter Will Not Win Sixth Term

Prediction: Arlen Specter Will Not Win Sixth Term

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 09:20:34 PM EST

Todd has noted the news that Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, mindful of a challenge in the Republican primary from former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey, has announced that he will not vote in favor of cloture of the Employee Free Choice Act, but I'd like to quickly (if somewhat belatedly given my spotty internet access this week) weigh in on the news as well.

My prediction, on the basis of this move, is that Specter will not win a sixth term in the United States Senate. I just don't see the path. Even with this move, Specter isn't going to be able to make it out of a Republican primary. He only narrowly beat Toomey in 2004, with the White House on his side, with Rick Santorum on his side, with the fact that the GOP held just a two-seat majority in the Senate at the time on his side, etc. Unless Specter already struck a deal with Toomey -- that in return for Specter siding with the GOP corporatists against working Americans on EFCA, Toomey wouldn't run in the primary -- I can't see a path to renomination for Specter. And given that this move has alienated organized labor, which was likely to support him as an Independent had he supported EFCA, I can't see the path to Specter winning in a three-way race as an Independent against Toomey and a strong Democrat.

I realize that we are more than 19 months away from election day 2010, so I'm going out on somewhat of a limb here. But I'm putting it in writing: I do not believe that Specter will win another term in the Senate next year.

Tags: PA-Sen, Senate 2010, Pennsylvania (all tags)

Permalink :: 7 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Prediction: Arlen Specter Will (none / 0)

There doesn't seem to be a deal with Toomey... Toomey slammed him today and it seems like full steam ahead... of course, time will tell if Norquist tells Toomey to pull the plug, but for now, the primary is on.

And PA is not far away from me... I think that I'll donate some effort and money to Toomey's primary campaign....

Now, if Grover tells Tommey to chill and specter gets the nomination by default, that's where the meat of the action is. Can we knock him off in PA with a good democrat? I hope so!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 10:28:28 PM EST

Really??????????? (none / 0)

It's totally obvious that the 180 on Card Check is about a last ditch shot at the Republican primary.

by andgarden on Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 11:06:44 PM EST

Adios, Arlen (none / 0)

Oh, I think you vastly oversetimate the influence of Grover Norquist. Most Pennsylvania Republicans never heard of him, and Toomey's contacts in the Club for Growth will provide ample resources for the primary.
I can only make sense of Specter's action today by hypothesizing that being a Republican is somehow central to Specter's self image. He was a Democrat in his youth, but joined the Republican Party in his thirties, and apparently he would rather lose his seat than leave his party. To admit that he can't win a primary in Pennsylvania is to admit that the party of Lincoln has become the party of Jefferson Davis and Strom Thurmond, and although that is true, it is a truth that Arlen Specter will never admit.
Which is just jim dandy with me. If he's not the most narcissistic whore in the Senate, he's definitely in the top three. His concession speech will be one of the most memorable moments of 2010.

by Ron Thompson on Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 11:12:20 PM EST

PA is a prime D pickup (none / 0)

The optimum scenario for the Ds is for Toomey to take out Specter in the R primary, and the Ds to put up their best possible candidate. Considering the 2008 election details, I cannot imagine PA statewide moving any further right.

But, if Specter goes the Independent route and makes it a three-way race, the waters are truly muddied.

by Leading Edge Boomer on Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 11:34:29 PM EST

Re: PA is a prime D pickup (2.00 / 1)

He's not going indy now... if he wanted to go Indy, he'd vote for EFCA and get labor's support...

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 11:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here we go... (none / 0)

The first shot has been fired on what will likely be a bloody 2010 battlefield. A LOT at stake here: Open governorship, the aforementioned senate race, seveal competitive house seats, and a closely divided state legislature that will handle a high-stakes redistricting following the new census. Add onto that an electorate in flux and the numerous daunting problems facing the Keystone State and you have one crazy still-evolving landscape to look forward to.

And no, I doubt there's any sort of backroom deal-making with that irrelevant putz Norquist. Toomey will do as he pleases; he is ambitious, cunning, and quite savvy. Snarlin Arlen is a stubborn ol' cuss and has invested himself too much in the GOP to be a quitter now. The only question that remains is to see if Gov. Rendell has grown a pair since 2004 and will start working the Dem machinery against his buddy should he vanquish Toomey.

And God help the Dems should they nominate a pandering 'moderate' like Patrick Murphy. Regardless, I'm excited to get involved.

by T Law on Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 11:50:07 PM EST

How does Specter vote after primary? (none / 0)

Specter left the door open to changing his vote after the primary. There's been speculation he would switch again as he goes into the general.

But what does he do if he loses the primary? Isn't there an implied threat that if business still backs Toomey, a post-primary Specter would vote for the original EFCA. While if business squeezes Toomey out, Specter would at least get them some kind of compromise.

by BRoss on Wed Mar 25, 2009 at 11:03:24 AM EST

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