Yesterday, I wrote about a new poll that showed Democrat Scott Murphy within single digits of Jim Tedisco in the NY-20 race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the House. Today, a new poll released by Siena Research Institute (712 LVs, Mar. 9-19, MOE +/ 3.7%), the same group that had Murphy 12 points down two weeks ago, confirms that positive movement for Murphy and actually shows him within 4 (2/26 poll results in parentheses.)

Tedisco 45 (46)
Murphy 41 (34)
Sundwall 1 (N/A)
Undecided 13 (20)

Murphy's gains have been most dramatic among Independents who now favor him 43-37, a net gain of 20 points in two weeks, and on the issue of the economy where Murphy is now favored 42-38, a net gain of 8 points for Murphy. Clearly the focus on Tedisco's unwillingness to take a stand on the stimulus plan is working for Murphy. Remember, NY-20 has a 15 or so point GOP registration advantage but did vote for Obama in November. This race is swiftly becoming a test case in how a Democrat should run on Obama's agenda even in a conservative district.

As Stu Rothernberg wrote yesterday when he moved the race to pure toss-up status:

The Republican voter registration advantage appears to be a lagging indicator of the direction of a district that voted overwhelming for Gillibrand and gave Barack Obama a more narrow victory last fall.

There appears to be a sizable population of Republicans that aren't yet willing to vote for state Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco (R). Democrats have Tedisco on the defensive for not taking a stance on the stimulus bill in a district where President Obama and Gillibrand are very popular.

No wonder the Republicans a freaking out. The RNC has dropped $100k into the New York State GOP and the "right-roots" are trying to raise $20k in 20 days for NY-20...you get the idea. To counter their effort, The Albany Project has launched an ActBlue page of their own for Murphy. Help Scott Murphy continue his momentum to election day March 31st by contributing to his campaign today. I just gave $25, who's gonna match me?

Update [2009-3-12 15:47:31 by Todd Beeton]:Always good to peek in on the #ny20 Twitter feed to see what the right is doing to activate on Tedisco's behalf and to see how they're feeling. This tweet jumped out at me:

Deyprod: Michael Steele is dumping tens of millions into NY20. If we can't win that district, we deserve to be in the minority. (70K more GOP voters)

Not that Steele is dumping that much into the race...yet, but I think the analysis is pretty much right on: they should be in the minority.