The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its October 2009 unemployment report. The numbers were worse than expected.
The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade.
Most analysts had expected the unemployment rate remain just shy of 10%, instead it shot past that barrier reaching a 26 year high. In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points. Factory payrolls dropped by the most in four months, and the average workweek held at a record low.
Since President Obama took office in January, the economy has lost 3.49 million jobs. Overall the US economy has lost 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, when the unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent.
On the positive side, the number of temporary workers increased by 44,000 in October, adding to gains in the previous two months. This suggests that that businesses have squeezed as much production as they can out of their existing workforces and thus bring in temporary workers to fulfill orders. On the other hand, businesses seem reluctant to make permanent hiring decisions.
As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, companies are postponing major investments in either capital equipment or labor and instead holding more cash reserves. In the second quarter that ended in June, the 500 largest nonfinancial U.S. firms, by total assets, held about $994 billion in cash and short-term investments, or 9.8% of their assets, according to the Wall Street Journal's analysis of corporate filings. That is up from $846 billion, or 7.9% of assets, a year earlier. In the third quarter quarter that ended in October, cash assets increased to 11.1% of total assets, from 10.1% in the second quarter. The good news is that companies have cash to invest; the bad news is that so far companies don't seem to have a better use of cash other than to pay down debt. Translation, orders remain soft.
The October job report provides the depth of the problems. Unemployment is greater among men, who suffered a 10.7 percent unemployment rate in October, as compared to 8.1 percent among women. Among African American men, unemployment reached 17.1 percent in October. In communities such as Detroit, unemployment rate is well over 35 percent. On the one hand while unemployment among African-Americans is higher than the nationwide rate, it is much lower than it was back in 1982-83. This reflects both positive and negative trends, according to Roderick Harrison, a senior research scientist at Howard University. On the positive side, there is a larger black professional middle class that is less subject to layoffs than was the case 26 years ago, he said. But on the negative side, more African-American men have dropped out of the labor force after giving up looking for work, Harrison said - that means they aren't reflected in the unemployment statistics.
Unemployment reached 9.5 percent among white Americans, 13.1 percent among Hispanics and 27.6 for teenagers. Unemployment rate in October 2009 for those without a high school diploma is 15.5 percent versus 4.7 percent for those with college degrees. Still the proportion of college graduates among the unemployment has been steadily climbing now reaching 14.7 percent. In 1983, only 6.8 of the unemployed were college graduates.
Michigan continues to report the highest levels of unemployment at 15.3 percent followed by Nevada at 13.3, Rhode Island at 13.0, California at 12.2 and South Carolina at 11.6. Back in the 1982-83 downturn, unemployment was highest in Michigan, West Virginia, Alabama, Ohio and Illinois.
Among all groups, the U6 underemployment rate -- a broader measure of the jobs shortfall which includes people whose hours have been cut, those working part-time for lack of full-time work, and those who have given up looking -- is 17.5 percent. This is the number that I prefer to use as the real unemployment number. This reflects those individuals who can no longer find work in their chosen careers and have instead been forced back to school or to take lower paying jobs in the service sector. The lack of manufacturing jobs and a collapse in even high-paying white collar sectors such as finance and legal services poses a particular worry for the US economy and ultimately for the Administration.
Here is the household data from the report:
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 percent) and whites (9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted.The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.
The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent.
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October, reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October, up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The long-term unemployment rate remains troubling and suggests a continuing structural imbalance. The average length of unemployment reached 26.9 weeks, a record.
The essence of the problem for the Obama Administration from the New York Times:
Though the economy grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate between July and September, much business activity was stirred up by special programs aimed at encouraging consumers to spend, not least the cash-for-clunkers program that provided taxpayer-financed cash incentives to people trading in their cars.As the effects of this and other stimulus programs fade over coming months, fundamental weakness may reemerge, with consumers -- whose spending accounts for 70 percent of overall economic activity -- confronting enormous debt, the loss of wealth and fears about job security.
I see little reason to be optimistic with an Administration that seems to think band-aids can cure cancer. The problem is systemic and reflects a broken economic model that focuses on the aggrandizement of financial assets over the creation of real manufacturing capacity. Priority one is jobs. Priority two is more jobs. The Administration requires a serious a wake-up call and a reorientation of its focus. Dismissing Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers, who have failed the President with their failure to adequately assess the gravity of the situation, is no longer a matter of if but when.
Here are the thoughts of a sickened to his stomach Paul Krugman:
Back in the first few months of the current administration, when I was writing piece after piece urging the new administration to adopt a more aggressive economic policy, what I had very much in my mind — and wrote about on a few occasions — was the possibility of a sort of political economy trap. If unemployment continued to rise, I feared, Congress wouldn’t draw the right conclusion — that we needed more stimulus. Instead, the verdict would be that Obama’s economic policies weren’t working, so we needed to do less. And high unemployment would also lead to Democratic electoral losses, further undermining the ability to act (since the fact is that today’s GOP is the party of economic ignorance). The result would be a persistently depressed economy, and a fading out of Obama’s promise.
I really, really wish I had been wrong about this — and for a while, as banks seemed to regain their footing and stocks went up, it looked as if the administration’s softly, softly policy might work out after all. But on the things that truly matter, above all jobs, reality has played out even worse than I feared. Today the unemployment rate passed 10%, a sort of brutal milestone.
The thing to do, I guess, is to keep making the case for doing more; in particular, we can hope that centrist Democrats will finally realize that timid economic policies are hurting their own electoral prospects. But it’s an uphill fight.
Who’s to blame? The buck stops with the president. But did his economic advisers make it clear to him that the proposed stimulus was way short of what the math suggested we needed, even given what was known in January? Or was Mr. Obama really led to believe that his stimulus proposal was as bold as he claimed it was?
I don’t know. But I’ve got a sick feeling about the whole situation.
Government is no place for the timid. It is disheartening to realize that too many Democrats yet subscribe to a free market ideology that has eroded the lifestyle of an overwhelmingly number of Americans. It's time for a more public-private partnership. Walter Mondale proposed a comprehensive industrial policy in 1984. We currently have one by default. Instead of seeking to restore our manufacturing prowess or build new technological sectors, Washington has steadily protected and advanced the banking and finance sector. These are protected from perils and rescued from insolvencies. Instead of picking winners as a sane industrial policy dictates, in our insanity we save losers.
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