Re PPP

Because their assumptions are wrong. For example, they discuss Maine, but when you look at what is already happening with early voting, it does not agree with their set of assumptions. When they were right, the evidence related to them being right also agreed with them. This is like being a gun fighter. Pointing to past performance may be impressive, but it says nothing for the present fight or its outcome with regard to polling accuracy. Returning to Maine, they predict that there are much more Republicans this year than even 2004. Do you see a problem with that?

but VA-Gov has been a longshot all year, and NY-23 has been Republican forever.

I am still reasonably hopeful in NJ. The biggest concern is that Daggett's support will collapse as he is buried down-ballot. I think Daggett's leaners will end up mostly with Christie.

Pollster.com's average has Corzine and Christie tied, and Chris Bowers sees only a slight edge for Christie, looking at the totality of the recent polling.

In the middle of a severe recession, it's a miracle that Corzine still has any prayer of pulling this out.

but then again, Rasmussen of all people has sobering news for Republicans:

For the third straight month, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats inched up while the number of Republicans fell slightly.

In October, 37.8% of American adults considered themselves Democrats. That's up three-tenths of a point from September and a full-percentage point since July. While President Obama's party has been regaining ground since bottoming out in July, the number of Democrats nationwide remains lower than in any month from December 2008 through June 2009.  [...]

Still, there are more Democrats than Republicans. A total of 31.9% now claim an affiliation with the GOP. That's down a point-and-a-half since July 2009 and the lowest number of Republicans since July 2008.

Mcdonnell by 10....

Christie wins in New Jersey by less than 1% , I don't see how Corzine wins with his favorability ratings...

NY seat goes to the republicans easily close to 15% gap...

If the democrats don't deal with the deficits , spending and fiscal issues , 2010 will be worse...

I don't think the left cared an ounce about any of these races really.   I have never sensed any urgency, any support for the candidates, or even any willingness to do battle with the Republicans simply for the sake of doing battle, and striking a blow.

Maybe some folks thought just electing Obama and a Democratic Congress was enough and that the fights were over, or no longer worth fighting.

If so we are going to get our asses kicked next year ... big time.

All this work over the past couple of cycles for nothing.  

Well last year you were telling us GWU/Battleground and Rasmussen should be more trusted than any other pollster, but in the end CNN, ARG (yes ARG), Pew, Democracy Corps, and Harris Interactive (that's right, an internet poll!) were all equal to or better than Ras, and GWU/Battleground was even further off.

PPP uses IVR and I don't think they are getting an accurate read on NY-23 at all--Cook's robopolls in 2006 could not get a good read on NY-20 next door, showing Gillibrand up by 11-13 points before the Sweeeny domestic violence news broke. I also have a hard time believing Christie will win NJ by 6 when Corzine leads in early voting by 12-20 points, depending on the poll.

PPP will likely be right in VA--big deal! Deeds blew any chance at being competitive when he dissed the public option in the debate and demoralized the base.

Also, looking at recent special elections, dem turnout has been good, only slightly off from where it was last year, in places as diverse as California, Iowa, and New Hampshire. PPP's likely voter models may turn out right, but recent elections indicate otherwise.

Finally, polling on Halloween has to be regarded skeptically--remember Zogby's one day one point lead for McCain last year? That was on Halloween. Any polls we can get that are taken exclusively yesterday and today would be most reliable.

Not too optimisitc, but here goes:
Question 1 (Maine)  Yes 52% No 48%--Maine still too rural and possibly there's an upper limit for gay marriage, even in Blue states.

NY-23--Hoffman by 7%.  Had all the events happened a week earlier, maybe Owens had a shot, but he's a weak candidate.

VA-Gov:  McDonnell 56.5% Deeds 43.5%.  Nuff said.
NJ-Gov:  Christie 47%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 9%.  Christie's ad push gets him over the top.  Corzine just too unpopular.

CA-10:  Garamendi 52%, Harmer 44%, other 4%.  Garamendi an underwhelming candidate.

Referendum 71 (WA):  Yes--54%, No 46%.  Domestic partnerships still more popular than gay marriage.

The last couple of polls on the 2005 governor's race showed a significant tightening.  The polls were wrong.  Corzine won by double digits.

NJ will come down to the ground game.  We know the Democrats are exceptionally well-organized in NJ.  What is less clear is whether the Republicans have their act together.  Often I've seen the Republicans overperform and we found out later that they had successfully implemented microtargeting strategies or whatever.  I think the state GOP will have to be better organized than they've been in the past for Christie to hang on - but that might happen.  The Republicans don't call my house so I have no idea what they're up to.

Whatever the case may be, the narrative from this tiny sampling of elections only has power if the Democrats allow it to.  One thing that allowed Obama to run a successful campaign, and that has kept his approval ratings relatively solid to this point, is that he doesn't seem to pay a lot of attention to the 24-hour news cycle or the collective Beltway wisdom.  Unfortunately, he is virtually alone in the party on this.  We'd be far better off if more of the Democrats would learn to just ignore the pundits and their narrative of the day.

Given that PPP was more accurate than 538 or RCP in 2008, I don't really get the point of saying they are wrong.

I remember a year ago listening to all the conservatives who kept saying that IBD had the most accurate poll in 2004, and that therefore we should listen to them when they said McCain would win (changed a few days before the election to McCain would be very close). But despite their stellar record in 2004, they fell to 15th place in 2008.

And who says PPP was best? In Nate's rankings, they were 12th, behind Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA, both of whom show more favorable polls for our side.

Maybe PPP is right; maybe they are wrong. But it's patently absurd to think that they solved the problems associated with polling based on one year where they did well (even if by some other ranking they were the best).

PPP is ONE poll, dammit! And yes, they were pretty accurate in some races... But off in others. And this year, I think they're overstating the pro-teabagger/anti-Obama sentiment in far too many places. Obama WON NY-23 last year, so I doubt his favorability numbers there are as low as PPP suggests.

Oh, and I'm calling Maine voters right now. I hope more of you join me tonight and tomorrow night. I'm also getting updates from there, and from what I'm hearing Maine is FAR from a lost cause. So here's what I think:

Maine- No on 1 wins 52/48 and TABOR loses 48/52.

NY-23- WTF??!! I won't even try here.

New Jersey- Corzine wins 45/42 with Daggett getting about 8%.

Virginia- Deeds loses 42/56 (just an all-around lousy campaign turning off the Dem base).

Washington- R-71 wins 56/44 and I-1033 loses 48/52.

Corzine by a hair in New Jersey. Although I thought he would do better than that.

McDonnel buries Deeds (and the rest of the Republican Ticket wins there as well.)

NY 23 goes to the crazy guy all but insuring a lot of crazy guys run next year.

And in Montgomery County Pennsylvania we will put Democrats on the Court of Common Pleas for the first time EVER.

Turnout at my Essex Country, NJ voting station was surprisingly brisk today, busier even than last November.  Ordinarily this would be good news for Corzine, since it is an overwhelmingly Democratic town, but it also is one in which people are at their limit on property taxes. Something is in the air-might be bad news.