MyDD :: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points

CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 04:00:18 PM EST

This is surprising to me, though perhaps it shouldn't be. New Research 2000 polling indicates that although incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer isn't the most popular Senator -- her favorable/unfavorable spread is an underwhelming 48 percent to 46 percent net positive -- GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is significantly less popular and polls at just 40 percent against Boxer.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos, January 5 through January 7, 2009, 600 likely voters, margin of error of +/- 4.0%

Senator Barbara Boxer (D): 49 percent
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 40 percent

After Schwarzenegger came back from a real drubbing in the November 2005 special elections on his slate of conservative propositions to handily win reelection just one year later by 17 points, I had the sense that the GOP Governor had the state of California figured out -- making enough entreaties to the left to assuage the state's Democratic-tilting voters while nevertheless managing to keep Republicans on the reservation by reminding them that he is their statewide winner. With this strategy, I thought, Schwarzenegger would be able to mount an effective challenge to Boxer in 2010.

But perhaps I was wrong. Perhaps California is even more inhospitable to Republicans than I had previously assume, that the 60.95 percent support Barack Obama received in the state on November 4 -- more than Ronald Reagan ever got in the state, and the greatest showing since FDR's 66.95 percent back in 1936 -- was an omen rather than an aberration.

Maybe there's another Republican less tainted by the current fiscal crisis in the state who would have a better shot at defeating Boxer, but it's not clear to me who that would be. (brownsox suggests San Diego mayor Jerry Sanders, though I know very little about him.) So for now, this seat is more than likely to stay in Democratic hands this cycle.

Tags: CA-Sen, Senate 2010, Barbara Boxer, Arnold Schwarzenegger, California (all tags)

Permalink :: 18 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

I honestly cannot understand how everyone on the planet does not adore Barbara Boxer.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 04:01:47 PM EST

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

I've voted twice for Boxer under duress. I think she's a lightweight mediocrity. I've voted for her to keep the seat Democratic, not because I think she's a good Senator.

Beyond that, Boxer doesn't carry a lot of weight in the Senate, at least compared to Feinstein. I've also heard she has a lot of staff turnover, which isn't a good sign.

by InigoMontoya on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 05:25:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Heresy!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 05:42:12 PM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

"We female Democratic Senators classify our male Democratic colleagues into three categories: Friends, Supporters, and Sir Galahads. And Joe Lieberman is a Sir Galahad." Senator Boxer, 7/25/06

That's how. Out of the her, Feinstein, and Schwarzenegger, she's the best of the three, I suppose.

And I'll admit that I am spoiled by my rep (Waxman).

Saxby Chambliss

by bosdcla14 on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 08:02:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

I confess, I'm not one of those Democrats who divides the whole world up into Lieberman supporters and Lamont supporters and hates everyone in the first column. But I do understand the point of view!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 08:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerry Sanders (none / 0)

Popular mayor of San Diego--former sheriff, fiscal conservative, more libertarian on social issues, opposed prop 8 (though not wholeheartedly).

He may be unknown outside of San Diego.

by esconded on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 04:08:09 PM EST

Re: Jerry Sanders (none / 0)

He is very well liked here in San Diego, has an openly gay daughter whom he openly supports her marriage.

But

He has not succeeded in getting San Diego out of the financial hole that we are sinking further into and that is what he ran on....

I think Boxer is better known in the state and probably more well-liked.

by nikkid on Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 10:40:49 AM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

I live in North County San Diego so I'm not all that familiar with him. It seems as if every time I heard something about him though, it was about privatizing (which he supports) various government functions

by leftcoastindie on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 04:34:11 PM EST

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

More of a schismatic, I think.

If Campbell had won the GOP primary against Herschonsonn (sp.?) (Bono split the vote), I'd have seriously considered voting for Campbell.

More at stake these days and I don't trust any Republican to do the right thing if it's a close call...thinking of you, Snowe & Collins.

by InigoMontoya on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 06:22:27 PM EST

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Oops. This was supposed to be a reply to SteveM downthread.

by InigoMontoya on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 06:23:12 PM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

It occurs to me...Steve, is your adoration of Boxer tongue in cheek?

by InigoMontoya on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 06:23:43 PM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Nah, I pretty much think she's great! My statement that I can't imagine why anyone wouldn't like her was tongue in cheek, of course, because obviously I can imagine. There's you, and Jim Inhofe, and...

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 06:34:34 PM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Oooh. Putting me in the same class as Jim Inhofe? For that, I'm willing to get some torture waivers.

I just got back from DC a few days ago, talking to people here and there. Three of us independently rated Oklahoma as the state with the worst Senators.

Btw, I was talking to a couple of people about Boxer. Their opinions (independent) were that she doesn't carry much weight because her voting pattern is so predictable. There was also an implication, not stated, that she's not the sharpest tool in the shed. Not dumb, like Inhofe, but just not one of the luminaries.

by InigoMontoya on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 07:00:05 PM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Um, Chuck DeVore has already wrapped up the endorsements of half the elected GOP officials in the state. He's going to win the primary. Arnold is currently delivering a budget with tax increases in them. He cannot win a closed GOP primary. The California GOP is more conservative than the Alabama GOP, arguably, especially on fiscal issues.

by dday on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 06:44:04 PM EST

BOXER IS MY #2!!! (none / 0)

After Hillary Clinton, Barbara Boxer is the woman I most admire!!!

She is a pit bull regardless of what some in these comments say.

She is a FIGHTER just like HRC.

I would get off my "Never AGain" platform (of getting involved in a political campaign) for Boxer OR Newsome - Both are True Heroes to me....

There was a time here in Cali where I would say that could never get elected Gov - but she has tempered her statements and calmed down from her days of running against that right wing asshole Hersonberg (?)

She is no longer considered a "left wing nut job" as the Repugs tried to paint her when she first ran. She has a more liberal track record than Feinstein (whom I also love), and she has done a good job protecting the environment, etc....

I would LOVE to see her as our Governor.

by nikkid on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 09:48:04 PM EST

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Barbara is fabulous. How many members of the Senate do their own grocery shopping? Not many I suspect. How many Democrats are openly partisan? Well a few but Barbara is one of them. Who in the Senate stood up in 2004 after the travesty of the Ohio election? Barbara Boxer did. Who in the Senate has been consistent ahead of the curve of the necessity of tackling climate change? Barbara Boxer has. She's a liberal liberal. She lives her values.

Schwarzenegger if he runs is a tough opponent (or at least tougher than most) but around his neck be the California Budget Crisis and that's likely to sink right there.

Follow me on Twitter.

by Charles Lemos on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 10:13:55 PM EST

Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

"Does her own grocery shopping" would never make my top 20,000 reasons to support any politician. I care about political effectiveness, not symbolism. And one person's favored partisanship is another's shrill ranting. Feh. YMMV.

And I don't see much alike in HRC and Boxer. HRC has a formidable intellect.

by InigoMontoya on Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 12:01:09 AM EST
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Re: CA-Sen: Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger by 9 Points (none / 0)

Look at it this way. She's out and about doing things that are in fact "normal." She is meeting members of her community and staying in touch with the concerns of average people. She really does have more of a common touch.

Follow me on Twitter.

by Charles Lemos on Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 12:05:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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