Off topic, but Palin will do an interview with Charlie Gibson later this week according to Mark Halperin.

The Ras' tracking poll, out today which showed a tie race, has the answer to your question as to where McCain's new support is coming from:

"McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama's lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women."

White working class (no college) women are moving to McCain-Palin en masse. This result strongly suggests the move in the polls is due almost entirely to Palin's selection and speech performance. If that is true, the move in the polls is not a bounce, it is a structural change in the fundamentals of the election.

Mccain's speech was better than Palin's in my view...

It wasn't delivered with precision and the man can't give a speech to save his life but it had a lot of honesty and character to it , I think it would be responsible for his bounce , much more than Palin's if any of the speeches was responsible at all..

...given the post-Republican convention trends over the past 48-72 hours.

What's alarming to me is the news in Beeton's diary, below.

Deploying the same strategy against McCain/Palin, from a communications, as Obama did against Clinton, post Super Tuesday, really wasn't all that effective. It was more of a hold-the-ball/beat-the-clock concept, tied into delegates. And, most importantly, in a situation where he had the committed delegate lead post Super Tuesday, too.

The GE is, by definition, much more dynamic than the Primary. If Beeton's diary really is correct, this is bad news.

Again, Axelrod had very little national experience until this year. He ran the Simon campaign's media for all of 10 minutes in 2000; then he ran Edwards' media in Iowa, before that campaign imploded.

We will meet the Rethugs head-on in the GOTV arena, come election day, and more-than-likely beat them in the field due to Plouffe's brilliant leadership this year. But, as far as Axelrod's concerned, I find the concept of Obama going forward with a mediocre (AT BEST) communications along the lines of what was deployed in the primary between the first week of February and the first week of June of this year very, very disconcerting.

I would rather feel good about the directions of the Obama air game than anxious about it, like I do now.

This is our election to lose, and like any other professional matchup, if you give the opposition room to exploit your weakness, they will do just that.

Axelrod's national campaign communications inexperience is a weakness.

(And, IMHO, anyone that mistakes this for a concern troll comment has their head up their ass!)

Pretty scary.  I guess one silver lining is that McCain gets sloppy when he's the frontrunner or feeling confident.

The Obama campaign needs to get some positive attention in the media, as it's been all Palin and McCain for over a week now.  Bring the focus back on the issues, and do it with more than just the McSame mantra that the voters have heard for months now.  Talk about how McCain wants to privatize Social Security, for starters.  Most 72 year olds don't have a dozen houses to stash their cash in.

I  am going to I think stop coming to blogs. Pretty much all that is being said is based on bias etc. McCain got a bounce. What was bush's bounce in 2004? What about the bounces in 2000. How long did thos elast. Did they reshape the races?

Today's Zogby poll also shows a 4 point spread and McCain is nearing 50%

Moreover, Larry Sabato (heard in Fox news program) using insider information from pollsters is forecasting a HUGE, HUGE bounce for McCain in the coming days. This he was saying before today's Gallup poll results were published. That means, ~48% of the Moderate Hillary Voters (~9 million) (who previously said that they were not for Obama in a previous poll) are strongly moving towards McCain.

In the Democratic Primaries, Obama consistently lost to Hillary among the undecideds (in the last few days before election) even in states where he won. Since McCain is nearing 48-50% (gallup/Zogby), even if Obama reverses this trend, it will be hard to beat McCain.  

Biggest Blunder of the Democratic Party in 2008:
Not choosing Hillary as VP.
Not electing Hillary as Presidential nominee.
Obama NOT embracing Bill Clinton's moderate fiscal/health care policies

Southern California Hillary Voters will put entire CALIFORNIA in PLAY next week

PA, MI, NJ may be turning PINK because of Catholic Hillary Voters

OH, FL, VA, CO may already be OUT OF PLAY

This is the race for now and for all time unless and until something happens to change it.

McCain will maintain a lead of 2 to 5 points in the national polls.  Unless he screws up, and unless the corporate press/media actually reports the screw up, he will win by that margin.  He will get all the Bush states from 2004.

Tell me where I am wrong.

He could screw up in the debates like another 'Czechoslovakia' moment.  

If Obama could get McCain to show some of his temper that would do it.

For what it's worth (from Wikipedia):

In the beginning of September, the successful Republican National Convention along with the allegations by Kerry's former mates gave Bush his first comfortable margin since Kerry had won the nomination. A post-convention Gallup poll showed the President leading the Senator by 14 points.

According to Gallup, Bush jumped out to a 7 point lead directly after the 2004 Republican National Convention--first week of September.  About 10 days after that, Bush's lead had widened to 14 points, again according to Gallup.

Kerry ended up losing the election by 2.4 points.  Just putting this out there, for a bit of historical perspective.

And you guys are shitting yourselves. Election 2004 after the thugs convention Bush was 15% ahead in Gallup poll. If McCain is only three points ahead then things are much better than it looks. This bounce will fade away. Keep your nerves.

I'm also disquieted and worried about this bounce, but keep in mind, Obama was up by 8 or 9 in these same polls a week ago.

Now it's possible Palin made such a damn good impression that suddenly all women everywhere are switching parties and votes and McCain will now win in a landslide ... or it's possible this is just a bounce, just like Obama's.

This thing just got started, folks.  We're not even a week past Labor Day.  Calling McCain's bounce "insurmountable," as some have done here, is ridiculous.  The 'Pug convention just ended three days ago.  If McCain still has a three point or more lead ten days from now, then let's start to worry.

Saw on CNN last night a loo at Palin's claims at the convention and what was real.  Reporter's that cannot interview her are interviewing people in Alaska...and starting to define her in ways that are not positive:  "...sees things in black and white..." "...takes credit for work the whole state did..." "did NOT sell her state jet on eBay..."  (BTW McCain has been stating that she indeed sold the jet on eBay for a profit when it was sold to a gov. race donator for $600,000 less than the eBay amount = no profit)  

She is a HOT item and, I's sorry, she just does not look ready to take on the AMERICAN press candidly.  I am sure she is charming as hell, but I also think she is going to trip...she is too new to this and it shows.  Her body language and movements during her speech at the convention expressed her discomfort.  Her need to use teleprompters during speeches shows a level of unpreparedness.

I think we keep going with the same playbook, ride out the storm, KEEP OUR HEADS, and watch the repubs implode.  Unless they shrink-wrap Palin and just run her convention speech all the time, she is going to get tarnished because she is NOT in Obama's league as a orator or a statesman (-person?)  And it will, once again, come down to the difference between Obama and McCain...not Palin.  Anyone want to bet old man McCain can handle himself BETTER now that we have officially entered into the political season?

And can someone HONESTLY tell me that things cannot change over the next two months?  Really.  In two weeks there have been big fluxes, why are things going to settle down now?

(And for the record, correctly or not, Obama was considered the UNDERDOG in the Primary until Super-Tuesday.  Yeah, he had the lead, but Hillary was EXPECTED to take the lead then.  I am waiting for the state-by-state polls before I start to freak-out.)

I think Sabato is one of the best in the business, fairly Democrat-friendly for the most part; he was on about an hour ago. He stated that there will be polling coming out between Monday and Tuesday which shows significant movement toward McCain. Today's Gallup and Rasmussen results may just be the beginning.

My hope is that some in the media as well as bloggers do what they should have done from the beginning: just leave Sarah Palin alone. They are turning her into Joan of Arc, and the GOP is reaping the rewards.

Ignore the soap opera.  Palin will do what Palin will do.  Hillary will do what Hillary will do.  Hillary's supporters will do what they're going to do.  Can't do anything about any of that.

Ignore the day-to-day polling.

Obama and Biden are doing what they should be doing, and they should keep doing it.

Going to swing states and doing photogenic and press-worthy events.

Hammering on the economy with specific policies and stories connected to what's going on in each state.  You know, the "I didn't hear them say anything about you" stuff.  It's real and it works.

Hammering McCain and Palin on policy rather than personality.

Raising money like mad so they can put ads on TV and finance the mail and phone staffing.

Registering voters like mad to set up the turnout program.  Making personal contact to set it up as well.

In two weeks absentee ballots will start going out in some states, and O/B will work hard on getting as many of those votes in as possible to narrow the turnout targeting.

Each of us should do what we can to support all of this.

Grind it out.  60 days.

Then it's a winning strategy for him

1.  The McCain bush hug.
   
2.  Sarah Palin's name on earmarks
   
3.  McCain's first wife
   
4.  McCain saying he doesn't know about the economy
   
5.  McCain saying he doesn't know how many houses he has.
   
6.  McCain calling the religious right leaders agents of intolerance
   
7. McCain singing bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran

I think a Democratic win in this cycle has mostly to do with a change in the size of our base so that the comfort zone that many Americans feel with a white, military, conservatve candidate, even those who have a hunch it is voting against their best interests policy-wise, can be erased.  I don't know if that will happen this year or not.  Americans are very susceptible to the "good American" image of the fifties that Sarah Palin s a new version of and John McCain the old version.

It would be really nice to see that go away but I'm not sure times are quite bad enough, or the nature of who votes changed enough, to make that difference.  I just hope so.

The biq question is, does McCain have coattails?
That's what I'll be looking for in House and Senate polls.

If Sabato is right, time to write off the presidential election.

Jerome,

Haggai's stuff IS good, but its still a guess.  Please preface that sort of thing.  We don't KNOW the actual break down of the numbers.

I remember a race a while ---- the Democrat ahead by more tha a dozen points and had punted his plan to campaign, had no state strategies, and looked like a jackass when Ted Koppel told him in September that the Republican had locked up enough states to secure an electoral victory

Folks ---- national polls and daily tracking is a complete and utter waste ---- Have we secured Kerry's blue states, do we have enough states in play with enough electoral votes to give Obama options for winning the White House, and are there enough Bush States in danger of being in won by Obama to keep McCain off its game?

The Blue States do look good ---- but we've got to make sure those states are a lock.  

There are about 100 electoral votes in play right now ---- building a voter registration edge there is key.

Do everything possible to keep the pressure on in Red States will keep McCain in check.

Jerome,

Haggai's stuff IS good, but its still a guess.  Please preface that sort of thing.  We don't KNOW the actual break down of the numbers.

it is cause for some concern. There's gotta be a way to get Palin, and if I wanted to really be extreme, find a way to swap Biden for Hillary on the ticket, tho thats not terribly likely.

While yes, electoral college determines the winner of a Presidential election, the chance of losing the election while carrying more popular votes is extremely slim: of the 55 presidential elections, only 4 have been won with less than a plurality of the popular vote, or in the 45 elections since 1828(when popular vote is considered to have been widespread), only 3 have been won with less than a plurality of the popular vote, which means in both scenarios, the popular vote winner has won the election 93% of the time. National polls DO matter. We need to get 527's on Palin's ass.

You can't just pick numbers that add up to the 3-day averages and declare them solved.  There are so many possibilities.  Especially when you factor in that Gallup is rounding their numbers.

I've been working on a program to figure out the widest possible range each day's number could be, limited by the 3 and 7 day moving averages.  The results are starting to look useful.  But it also proves that all these guesses you see littered around the net are wildly, wildly off the mark in one way or another.

CNN's Poll of Polls is:
Obama 44
McCain 43

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/24/p oll.of.polls.chart/index.html

People, you all need to calm down.  These numbers represent all the positive feedback from Palins speech.  Let's stop with the sky is falling junk until at least a week or so later.  Same thing happened on Saturday of last week when everyone declared "no bounce" for Obama, but there was a subsequent one.

Right now, there is a lot of stuff being thrown at people, and we really need to wait until the dust settles.  I said it before, but it is really counter-productive to put so much stock in the daily tracking polls.  I say wait until at least the first couple of debates, then a clearer picture will be seen.

Right now Obama is doing what he needs to do, going on the offensive and keeping it on the issues.  HRC discussions, really counterproductive.  Monday morning quarterbacking is never a productive activity.  Fact of the matter is, if Obama had chosen HRC and the polls looks as close as they do now, people would be yelling about what a bad choice he made.

The bottom line is that the polls are tracking an instantanous "emotional" reaction, and right now everyone is in "lust" with Palin.  Let's see what happens when at least 2 weeks (so funny it has barely been one week) has passed at least!

USA Today/Gallup: (9/5 to 9/7)
McCain 54 (50 among RVs)
Obama  44 (46 among RVs)

Thais can't be made up.  That's a 17 point swing in a week.  

Instead of looking at the spread, let us look at the McCain vote alone from today's polls:

Zogby - 49.7%
Gallup Tracking - 48%
Gallup USA Today - 50%
Gallup likely voters - 54%

The lowest is 48% . If he gets 2% from the undecided voters, then he wins the election.

This massive migration of the voters is due to the following:

Republican leaning Independents who voted for Obama in the 'Open Democratic primary' are leaving in large numbers (because of Sarah Palin) and that is why 10% spread is reflected in likely voters (54-44%). They came and screwed our primary and now they are screwing him in the General Election. These traitors should not have been allowed in our primaries in the first place.

I'm worried.

It's so depressing how ineffective the left wing machine has been compared to the right. I honestly felt the Republican convention was a joke, Palin is the most embarrassing candidate I can imagine, and the Republican's are putting forward absolutely no ideas at all to move the country forward. If Palin was a Democrat the Republican's would have destroyed her candidacy by now. And yet, the blogosphere feels irrelevant and the national narrative remains in the hands of the right. Where are all the successful talking heads from 2006? Where is Webb? Where is Hillary? Where is Leahy? Every time I see a Democratic politician, like Harold Ford Jnr for example, they're being objective rather than trying to win hearts and minds.

I hope Obama can do this. I trust he can beat their arguments but he has to market himself in a more direct and resonant way. His responses to the issues of the day are fantastic but they are 10 minutes long and have no decent soundbites for the national news. He needs to stop communicating with the audience in front of him and start talking to those watching TV at home, with barely a moment of attention to devote to what he's saying. That's the reality.

If we lose this one... We might as well just let them just have the country because the truth is the party will have let the nation down so badly, just as it did when it failed to win an easy election in 2000. McCain is clueless. That is the reality. He doesn't propose any vision or solution for the future. To be honest, he's an even weaker candidate that Bush.

The implications for everything in this country: healthcare, the economy, housing, poverty, education, the supreme court (after Ginsberg and Stevens it'll be like 7 Conservatives to 2)... And the implications for the rest of the world... the middle east peace process/Iraq/Afghanistan ... it's truly desperate to say the least.

It's great reading the analysis, but shouldn't the blogosphere be co-ordinated. The right get on point with Wright, Ayers, and they wreak havoc. While we are all lampooning their stupidity watching John Stewart suddnely we realize, f**, they've somehow managed to earn an irreversible 10 point lead.

Please people, do everything you possibly can to help Obama win this election.