It's tough to use midterm elections because turnout is so much smaller.

I can't imagine the Dems won't have at least some small party ID advantage, but it does seem like it won't be as big as we hoped.

considering how well the Dems did in '06, it's hard to believe that these breakdowns are at all accurate at a national level. Especially considering the age breakdown would have been very kind to the GOP.

then again, CNN seems to have had the black vote in N.Carolina off by about 5% (overcount) in the 2004 presidential election.

these numbers really don't mean much actually. They're the equivalent of a Zogby poll.

What are the two tables under "In terms of the Age Demographic", is one Dem and one Rep?

Interesting watching the baby boom move through the age ranks.

It is important to remember the limitations of new voter registration and GOTV. It is hard to turn out new and reluctant voters, and the technique the Obama campaign has touted, phone banking, is one of the least efficient methods after direct mail and robo-calls. In close states phone banking may be enough to make a difference, and since Obama has such a vast volunteer pool the inefficiency is not a big cost.

The second risk is poor targeting, GOTV can turn out your opponent's voters if not done carefully. Obama's focus on African Americans is safe, every 10 new votes should net him 8 votes, but there aren't many more African Americans to turn out in targeted states. The youth vote is more problematic, the Democratic registration advantage is under 60% in 18-29 year olds so a naive GOTV program may only net 2 Obama votes for every 10 voters turned out.

As we saw from following the primary elections, the exit polls in their raw form are badly wrong and need to be "adjusted" to fit the final, actual results.

one thing to consider -- those regular aged voters are disproportionately conservative for a good reason -- poor old people CAN'T vote.  

They don't have transportation.
They can't afford someone to come in to care for a loved one.
They may be confused by the absentee process or unable to fill out the paperwork themselves.  

With a strong organized Democratic GOTV effort like we have this year, I don't believe that "old folks turn out and vote conservative" will hold true.

And we haven't even really started talking about the privitization of SSI and the  Medicaid "donut hole."  Ask an old person about the "donut hole" but be first to back slowly away first.

btw, Gallup has theirs here:

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Key%2bIndicato rs.aspx

I've been thinking about writing a book about older voters because there is no such book.  My work for Obama has focussed on older voters and how he and his candidacy are seen by them.  Older voters have been a consistent weakness for Obama. In the primary, this was heavily influenced by HRC's strength among older voters, especially older women voters (who dominate the 65+ age cohorts).  I want to see how Obama will do with older voters in the general.  He will lose in this demographic but the question is by how much and why; the Palin pick will hurt McCain with older voters.

When you combine the fact that older voters go to the polls in much higher percentages, the first baby boomers turned 65 this year and the Democratic Party advantage with older voters has eroded in recent cycles (in part, because FDR Democrats are dying off), you have a combination of demographic factors that will have a huge influence on elections for the next 30 years.  Winograd and Hais concentrated on the lower (younger) parts of what is likely to be an hour glass shaped age demographic breakdown but the top (older) parts of the hour glass have gone little noticed or researched.    

Check out these results for the 65+ age group:

1992: Clinton- 50%
          Bush- 39%
          Perot- 11%

1996: Clinton- 50%
          Dole- 43%

2000: Gore- 50%
          Bush- 47%

2004: Bush- 52%
          Kerry- 47%

I've been thinking about this question for over a year: Why did Bill Clinton appeal to older voters and Obama does not (overall)?  The answer is complex and includes the targeting/messaging of the campaigns themselves, the appeal to certain income and education levels and vestiges of both soft and hard racism.  It's a very interesting question and one that the Obama campaign has not really figured out because their outreach to older voters has been weak.        

This is the year of the baby boomers.  We will not have social security taken away from us nor will we have Medicare taken away.  We are still young and vital enough to make it to the polls. Regardless of any previous numbers from exit polls, this year is different.  Everyone I know is fed up with the poor performance in the Bush administration.

Do the age breakdowns reflect early voting?  Are there any studies that compare voter demographics in early voting versus election day voting?