Friday Notes

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:16:48 PM EST

Steve Lombardo over on Pollster has a real good birds eye view of whats happened in the past month of so of the campaign.

There are now three tracking polls.

Hotline has it at 46-40, Obama over McCain. That's a combined movement of 3 percent, from 48-39, in their poll prior to the tracking poll's beginning.

Gallup has it at 48-44 today, Obama ahead, a combined movement of 3 percent since yesterdays.  Rasmussen has it at 48-46, Obama ahead, also a  combined movement of 3 percent since yesterdays.

We'll have to wait till Monday's results to have the full post-convention picture. Obama met the bounce he needed imo, going from 45% to 49% in the poll of polls on RCP, a solid 4% bounce that put him higher than he's ever been.

Nevertheless, the poll of polls has closed quickly thus far, with 3% being shaved off Obama's lead in the past two days, now with a lead of 2.6 percent.

For John McCain to meet Obama's bounce, he'd need to exceed 47 percent, which would mean a similar 4% bounce from where he started at 43 percent. Right now, he's at 44% for a 1% bounce thus far.

He can't complain that they didn't see him speak. The news out today is that 500K more people watched McCain speak than did Obama.




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Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I thought those numbers didn't include PBS and online.  Although I dunno how many people really watched online.  Strikes me a bit as the old 2004 rallying cry "don't worry about the polls, we're going to win the cellphone only voters."


Saxby Chambliss
by bosdcla14 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:21:16 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Did the numbers you're talking about account for the fact that the highest numbers were for NBC and saw a 14% dropoff in viewers over the second half-hour? I haven't looked at anything except the basic everyday ratings.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:23:06 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

To put that in perspective, on ABC and CBS, both saw an increase of about 5% in overall viewers over the half-hour mark. So arguably, that's about a 20% drop that came directly from football.
Which compares to the 18-49 ratings, too. NBC saw a drop of 22%, while other networks saw an identical 7.14% drop in viewers.
"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

So more people saw the lousy first half and missed the stronger ending?


by RandyMI on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Well, on NBC. Some might have switched to cable, some might have moved to ABC or CBS, where they actually saw numbers go up (for viewers 50+). But yeah, there was a substantial number of viewers that tuned out. I doubt people tuning in at 10:30 were even impressed by what they saw unless they watched until 10:45, even.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:43:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

And bear in mind that anyone UNDER 50 did tune out early.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:44:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

And most OVER 50 were snoring their heads off by the middle of McCain's snooozer...Oh, I meant rousing speech!


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:07:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

"So more people saw the lousy first half and missed the stronger ending?"

Are you describing McCain's speech or the Redskins defense?:-)


by nintendofanboy on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I think Zorn's play-calling was similar to what you would expect in a Palin presidency.


"In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." -Barack Obama
by blueAZ on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:51:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

easy now, my skins actually played something resembling football in the second half...I am not discouraged losing to the defending champs, though the first half was unbearable


by KLRinLA on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 08:12:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 1)

If the McCain campaign can't get a lead out of the convention, I doubt they'll ever have one. The race is firming up quickly.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good point (2.00 / 0)

If by next week McCain isn't consistently ahead in the polls after this convention that says A LOT about where the country is headed.

But what will REALLY matter is the debates.  

Polls will be more telling after the debates.


by puma on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:33:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

Debates ... In 2004 I think we can all agree that Kerry whipped GWB in at least 2 of the 3, maybe all three of the debates.   I don't think it helped Kerry in that close race.

Biden has his worked cut out for him.   He is expected to win his debate, yet remain a gentlemen.    It is going to be hard for him to do so and if Palin shows up and doesn't trip over her pumps everyone will say she did great.

The debates won't matter much again this time.


by Monkei on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:38:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (2.00 / 0)

I think Palin might use the debate to personally attack Biden. They've used that strategy against Edwards in 2004, and they've already shown that they intend Palin to be able to attack without accountability.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:41:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (2.00 / 0)

That would be a laugh.
Stop H8
by mikeinsf on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:49:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

I'm picturing something like this, but much, much whiter.


I come here for the lulz.
by username on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (2.00 / 0)

That's wrong actually.  The polls tightened considerably after the first debate.   Kerry had been hit by the swifties and bush was starting to open up a bigger lead.  The debates closed it fast.    It wasn't enough, but a bad Kerry performance and we could have seen bush at 55% or something like that.


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:12:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (2.00 / 0)

Your right. The debates will mean little, the same as 2004.

This has turned into a 'base' election once again. Obama's 50 state strategy that turned into an 18 states strategy is now down to a 7 state fight after the Palin selection. The ballgame is:

Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia
Nevada

Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico - Bush states in 04'

McCain-Palin will win all Bush votes from 04' and pick up some moderates attracted to McCain and white working women (no college) for Palin vs.
Obama's massive edge with young people and 95%+ African American total with turnout numbers in excess of 80%

Really comes down to Michigan, Ohio, and PA. Whoever wins two out of three wins the election.

It's now ALL GOTV - it will end up plus or minus 10 electoral votes. WOW


by oliver777 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:17:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

GOP won't win Michigan, I predict, and there's NO WAY PA gets close. Maybe Catholics like Palin, but Biden is working the crowd HARD and has an inherent advantage anyway as a hometown hero.

No, this election will hinge on either CO, VA, OH or FL... in that order. And by that, I mean that Obama just has to win any one of those states.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Home town hero? (none / 0)

When did Biden last live in PA?  Wasn't it 40 years ago?  How many will remember him?  

I think Obama will win PA but not because of Biden being a home town hero.  jmo


by SueBee on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 09:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Home town hero? (none / 0)

HE actually is one. They call him the third senator from PA. PA and Delaware share media markets.  He's very well known in PA and is still considered the hometown hero.


by sweet potato pie on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:41:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

I agree about Michigan. McCain can try all he wants to play in Michigan. It will be close but all the polls show he is absolutely getting swamped in Detroit like 70-30 and Obama is tied with him in the suburbs.

McCain can't win Michigan being tied in the suburbs.


by sweet potato pie on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:43:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good analysis (none / 0)

People need to remember a bounce is bound to happen. We just need to ensure that it is a small one. So no panicking over the weekend. The question is: where do we go from here to build on Obama's poll numbers?


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:25:48 PM EST

Re: Good analysis (none / 0)

how about we continue to tell the young people to vote.   That's the best strategy, getting them to the polls.


by Monkei on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good analysis (2.00 / 1)

Hopefully Obama's GOTV in the GE works as well as it did in Iowa.  I'm also encouraged about the number of new minority voters he has found and registered...   voters who have never voted before.   This is going to be a turnout election and I think we will take it.


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:14:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can't we do more than that? (none / 0)

We cannot count on young people to stay excited from April until November.  Plus, I fear too many young women will vote for Palin.  


by SueBee on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 09:09:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Too Much "Concern"? (none / 0)

Young GOP women, maybe. But Obama never had their vote to begin with.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:00:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Young women (none / 0)

Seems to me that just about all of the "youthful and energizing" buzz members of the GOP are people that the older men and women FEEL that young people would get excited about. Never about who they are excited about, who that they think they SHOULD be excited about. It reminds me of when you're a kid and your grandparents try to "wing it" on a present.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:59:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

The news out today is that 500K more people watched McCain speak than did Obama.

Let's wait and see how many people see Colbert's second green-screen challenge of him speaking.
I come here for the lulz.
by username on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:26:19 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Did he already announce it? I figured it was coming. Can't imagine what people can do with an hour of footage.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:27:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

He hasn't announced it yet, but how could he possibly resist?  McCain was just screaming "hit me baby one more time" by not only green-screening himself, but doing so in front of the wrong picture.

And if Colbert doesn't do it, we simply need to begin the mockery ourselves.


I come here for the lulz.
by username on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:49:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

He had the greenscreen behind him for a good deal of time, then a blue screen (I think the entire image was an American flag, but when it was zoomed on him it looked like a standard bluescreen.  The backgrounds are practically BEGGING to get keyed out.


And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.
by thatpurplestuff on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:53:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

FWIW, just watched it, and the second green-screen challenge is on.


I come here for the lulz.
by username on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 11:39:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

If there's a relatively simply way of snagging the footage, I'll key it in front of whatever.  Any idea where I could grab it that isn't encoded in flash or whatever?  I'm kinda lazy... haha.


And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.
by thatpurplestuff on Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 05:46:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

More people watched McCain- more votes for Obama (none / 0)

After that really insipid speech, I am betting that he lost a couple of million of voters. Americans are ``notorious'' for electing presidents with whom they like to drink beer. On that scale he lost at least 10 millions of those. What the hell was that speech? Stand up and fight, fight, fight, fight ..............

Never had a more surreal experience in my life. All I can remember is fight, fight .... and all I camn muster when I go back to that speech  is fight, fight, fight... to avoid sleeping.    


by ann0nymous on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:34:32 PM EST

Polling Notes (2.00 / 1)

1. The Diago/Hotline Poll gives Obama a 46% to 40% lead Sept 2-
2. The same poll has an interesting take on women's attitudes towards Palin.

Interestingly, women voters are less inclined than men to say that Palin is prepared to serve as President if "McCain became unable to serve as President for some reason": 49% of men
say she is "prepared," while 41% of women say she is "prepared."

3. Remever the Survey USA poll that had Jerome declaring the sky was falling? {Mark Blumenthalhttp://www.pollster.com/blogs/from_the_e ye_of_the_storm.php] has some interesting information.

Some of you may have seen a survey conducted by SurveyUSA today that shows 60% of the voters surveyed giving Palin's speech an "A." But please note the fine print: The interviews were conducted earlier today and released by SurveyUSA at 4:55 Eastern time (according to the email release we received). That means they used their automated methodology to interview whomever happened to be at home during the day today. Do you think that might be a source of some bias in the results, even after weighting by age, gender and race? I'd say that is a very good possibility.

The bigger problem with this sort of survey is that it asks voters to react like pundits. How did Palin perform? Is she an "asset or a liability" to the Republican ticket? Does the selection "reflect well" or poorly on McCain? Only the last question begins to get at what matters, which is whether Palin's selection or speech has changed voter preferences or their underlying judgements about McCain or Obama.

The focus groups conducted last night by Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg for the Women's Voices Women Vote Action fund found results that are essentially consistent with grades that SurveyUSA's respondents gave the speech: Palin's speech "connected with these voters in a way that made her seem authentic, independent and strong," and her post speech favorability scores were improved. On the other hand, the groups showed no net gain for McCain in terms of vote preference. And as always, these were non-projective focus groups of just 22 voters.



by RandyMI on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:35:12 PM EST

Re: Polling Notes (2.00 / 1)

49% of men ,and 41 % of women think that Palin is prepared???? WHAT???  Who the hell are these people and what is in their heads? How can anybody in their right mind say she's prepared? Based on what exactly??
 She's been in the national consciousness for 1 week and all thats come out of her mouth is what's been written for her. She has not appeared on one  televison program. Instead she's whisked away ,and is being spoonfed information,being told what to say and how to say it,so that she can regurgitate it when neccessary. 49%??? WTF?
 To me that just goes to show how fucking dumb and  and how gullible the average American is.While more people DON'T think she is prepared ,49 and 41% ( repectively)  still make up large numbers.
 Just goes to show me that the American people are STILL,despite 80% being unhappy with the way this country is going,sleepwalking their way into another nightmare.
 Figures of 15-20%  finding her  prepared ,would have been acceptable and more like it.

by Lodgemannered on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling Notes (none / 0)

All the intel about Palin has come out at once. So for now, people are paying more attention to the "Executive Experience" thing rather than trying to parse through all the noise. There's still two months. They have to fill up a news cycle somehow, and Palin has enough heat to grab ratings. Once more attention has been paid to what the executive experience consisted of in reality, those numbers will drop. Andrew Sullivan said that the GOP is like Wile E Coyote right now, just one rational assessment away from plummeting to the ground.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:18:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 2)

Why so hateful Jerome?  The primary is over.  The bile practically drips from every word in this post.  It's a shame to see what this site has become.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:37:00 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 2)

Where did that come from? It's a completely factual post written in neutral language that concludes with the point that McCain is unlikely to attain the same bounce.

Seems like someone isn't over it...


by fsm on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 1)

It is a rule that whenever Jerome makes a post, someone has to make a comment like this.  People were slacking.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:34:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Ah... I missed the snark... Sadly some of his posts HAVE been that way... I don't think you can deny that.  This one wasn't.  I don't have a problem with him, but the way he does some of his posts tends to piss me off... yesterday, he focused on the CBS poll that DISAGREED with every poll out there, while never mentioning the other ones that came out like he did a day or two before.    


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

very droll (none / 0)


by JJE on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 09:32:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

"500K more people watched McCain speak than did Obama.'

That has to be bad news for JM considering how poorly he spoke.


by Alobama on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:39:21 PM EST

Re: I'd think so (none / 0)

51% of American voters proved they were dumbasses by voting for Bush in 2004.   So thats not saying much to taste.

Like it or not, the real question is Are they voting for Obama?


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:19:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Time to point out that 'maverick' .... (none / 0)

is not a good thing.  McCain seems quite proud that everyone in the Senate hates him (well, except for Joe).

Yay, he's not Miss Congeniality.  Yay, he won't get anything done because he'll be busy vetoing bills.  Yay, he's ready-shoot-aim cuz that's what mavricks (as the GOP spells it) do.  That's change for the better?


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LOL Of course they did. (none / 0)

They knew it would help Obama's fundraising and McCain's eventual defeat.


That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 08:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Palin Bounce; McCain Bounce Killer (2.00 / 1)

If McCain got a bounce out of his speech, I'm going to open a vein.


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:40:06 PM EST

Re: Step away from the switchblades (2.00 / 1)

Maybe, but the Palin bounce wasn't as high as many expected.   We shall see... Tommorrow will be telling.  By next weekend I think we will settle to a 49 O-44 M average in the polls and that will flux until the Debates.  A homerun by Obama in the Debate will clinch this (I still call bullshit for the partisan weighting of the CBS poll.   Jerome believes it, but as with most things this cycle, he'll be shown to be dead wrong on Election day.)  while a stumble will give McCain the lead.


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:09:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Step away from the switchblades (none / 0)

He should bring Hillary, Gore and Edwards in along with Biden and practice with them.


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Ya know Jerome...

Why do you perpetrate the myth that any fucking kind of national poll means anything?
It is all about the EV!

If you want to site something,; why not start with the EV map on your own website?
If you want to site pollster,; why not look at their EV map?

http://www.pollster.com/

5/38?  ...look at their Electoral map
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

You are coasting on something (yer book) that Was Important a few years ago. I am waiting for you to step up with that same passion and political insight.

tap yer toes...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmt0rLtgm K0
You are certainly better than this..


"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:46:35 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

You're nuts to ignore national polls. The national moods translates logically to individual states, and there's no way you can dismiss the fundamental factor that the national liberal/conservative split of roughly 21/32 is exactly where the swing states fall.

The hysterical aspect is when the goofs who fixate on state polls include two or more that simultaneously make no sense in relation to each other. I see that all the time. They'll include a +7 in one state and -2 in another, even though those states are historically within a couple of points of each other in partisanship and liberal/conservative split. Then when it winds up that way again, the state poll goofs can't understand what happened.

The fixation on state polls falls in line with typical tendencies on the internet, to obsess daily over many variables, and not merely rely on a few long term indications.

It's an overwhelming favorite that the popular vote winner will carry the electoral college. I know guys here in Las Vegas who offer 5/1 odds on that, aware they are stealing. There's a tendency to underrate how rare a popular/electoral split would be, since we saw a recent example in 2000. Similarly, I guarantee if I asked NFL fans the odds of a team going unbeaten until the Super Bowl, their estimate would not reflect how unlikely it is, due to the New England example of last year.


by Gary Kilbride on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:59:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Because state-by-state polls are erratic. Going to some swing states at pollster.com, I find:

OHIO - No single poll was taken both before and after the DNC, making it impossible to measure Obama's bounce. The most recent poll was 8/31-9/2 from CNN, meaning that we can't see any reaction to Palin's speech.

FLORIDA - The last poll was conducted 8/25-8/26. Let me know how you're planning to use that data to parse bounces for Obama or McCain.

NEVADA - The last poll was conducted 8/24-8/26. Ditto.

MONTANA - The last poll was conducted 7/29.

The Electoral College is absolutely what determines the election. But the data necessary to analyze electorate reactions to the convention simply don't exist on a state-by-state basis.


www.thealexandrian.net
by Justin Alexander on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 1)

...and yes i know the difference between cite and site...
as I was referring to sites..I hope folks understood the fun with words..
"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:49:03 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 1)

How much of a bounce is available to McCain? GHW Bush and Bill Clinton had already moved ahead of their opponnents on the day of the convention speeched in 1988 and 1992. Much of Obama's bounce came from low-hanging fruit: Democrats who supported Hillary. I could be wrong, but I don't think McCain has much there to grab.


by RandyMI on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 05:55:56 PM EST

Re: Independents (none / 0)

Scary, Huh...

Low information voters, going to decide on the spur of the moment on some whim?

Oh, God...Stevens and Ginsburg and the USSC for the next 30 years decided by some dork in the midwest who reads People Magazine on Sarah Palin!

Pray for Obama's GOTV and keep sending money!


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:17:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

What will make this interesting is whether McCain will get into the upper 40's.  If he's hitting a ceiling at 46 or so, even if Obama slips below him in one of the tracking polls, I think it's very telling.  Not over, but Barack and Joe's to lose.  If he gets into the upper 40's then I think it's competetive, but I think our ground game is very strong and will make a mockery of the lv screens in polls.  

Palin is generating a bounce, but with her limited access and strict scripting I think it will dissipate before the debates.  


by Headlight on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:14:33 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I gotta believe McCain hits upper 40's this weekend or early next week.  That's the country we live in.  As undecideds move one way or another, the national polls will tighten considerably.  I doubt either candidate breaks 50.5% in the national vote.

I base this on the fact that it is Friday and I did not eat enough lunch.  Generally, my 'gut' works better that way.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:32:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Obama was at 51 percent earlier in the week.


by bruh3 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I'm talking vote count, not polls.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:54:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Okay, so you are being pessmistic. The 51 percent is an indicator of Obama's potential highwater mark. He may not reach it, but it's something that should make you question your certain over the final vote count. You don't k now what iwll happen. Neither do I. But we can use data points to give us a hint.


by bruh3 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 1)

My guess is the final GE votes will be 49% Obama, 47% McCain and 4% Other.


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (2.00 / 1)

My guess is that it will be about 2 or 3 point spread. Obama closer to 50-49 percent, McCain at 48 to 46 depending on what goes to other. I think more people are likely to settle on a third party due to McCain than due to Obama. That's just my gut- no numbers to back this up. THe reality is that I just think the real problem McCain faces is his party's brand. THe real problem Obama faces , if we are honest, is race. That will mean that those who are angry at the GOP brand, but who can't bring themselves to vote Obama will need to vote somewhere.


by bruh3 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:24:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I agree that race is a very real issue.  Unfortunately, that is the 800 lb elephant (ummm, donkey?) in the room that we cannot discuss because we'll get tagged as lefty elitists looking down on rednecks.

Best way to handle it is exactly the way the Obama camp is doing it.  Never complain and stick with the issues.

At the end of the day, the only real 'issue' in this election to most folks is the choice  between four more years of Bush-like policies or taking a chance on a relative newcomer who promises change.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:03:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I am not pessimistic.  Optimistic actually.  

Obviously, I don't know what the vote count will be and clearly my meager attempt at humor (gut feeling) did not penetrate.

I just think the vote will be close especially given some third-party candidates out there.  BTW, anyone talking about Bob Barr having a noticeable effect on red state races anymore?

We will win this election on the issues and I do believe we will win.   Ain't gonna be a landslide in the popular vote.  Doesn't matter.  McCain's hill is much, much steeper than Obama's right now.  He'll get his bump in the polls and then slowly lose the election as Obama's ground game swamps him.  Trying to capture the word 'change' is not the best strategy for Johnny.  Saying the word 'maverick' while you try to scare the pants off of voters isn't very productive either.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 09:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Attention Poll Watchers (none / 0)


First Read: "The number to look for in the polls isn't the head-to-head; it'll be whether the percentage of voters who believe McCain will follow Bush's policies closely has actually dropped."

H/T:  Taegan Goddard
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/0 9/05/attention_poll_watchers.html


by cChalfonte on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:37:57 PM EST

Re: Attention Poll Watchers (none / 0)

Well THAT's easily rememedied.


by yitbos96bb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:21:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

G.O.T.V!!!!!!!!!! (none / 0)

Especially in the battleground states.

Go Obama/Biden!


by cChalfonte on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:38:41 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

Well we knew it would be watched by more white people just by looking at the demographic in the convention center.  It's pretty pathetic that they have to stoop to this level of desperation in trying to appear diverse.


by Tenafly Viper on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 06:38:56 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

The one thing that seems to be bothering me is this obsessiion with every little change up or down in the polls. This is an execise in sillyness. It's like day traders trying to make sense/cents gambling on the Minor market flucuations. The fact that McInsain has never broken 45 points and Obama has consistently been ahead tells us the electorate is pretty well made up it's mind. I don't think the undecides are going to pick the winner! Winning is all about turn out now. Unless of course, Obama makes a really big mistake.


by eddieb on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:24:08 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

4 letters:

GOTV


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:03:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

I expect Palin to do a "sick day" on the debate.

I do not think the handlers will ever let her out on her own to answer questions, no-not one!

She is stonewalling the Alaska investigation as we discuss...

She has some of the best stonewallers advising her!


by lja on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:52:07 PM EST

Re: RCP Poll of Polls (none / 0)

Can anyone help me with the methodology of the "RCP poll of polls" that's so often cited (and cited by Mr. Armstrong in this post).

I can't for the life of me figure out how RCP comes up with its polling average.  

thx


by ruskin on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:58:19 PM EST

Re: RCP Poll of Polls (none / 0)

The average of the polls out in the last week or so.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 05:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Football help audience (none / 0)


by jasmine on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 08:54:27 PM EST

Re: Friday Notes (none / 0)

He got a big audience cuz a bunch of us politics addicts were watching and throwing shit at the tv.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:02:18 PM EST

We all watched McCain and Palin (none / 0)

did "they" all watch Obama and Biden?

I think the Activated Democratic Voters account for a huge percentage of the RNC viewership.  I don't know a single Obama supporter who did not watch those two RNC speeches, and there just aren't all that many activated GOP supporters.

-chris


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:42:32 AM EST

Rasmussen was on Larry Kudlow this afternoon, (none / 0)

and described a massive movement toward the GOP due to Palin. At this point, more people believe Palin would make a good President than Obama, according to Scott's numbers.

He described this as a phenomenon not seen since Reagan, and quite possibly, JFK.


by BJJ Fighter on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 01:31:06 AM EST


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