Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Palin Speech

Last night my first reaction to Sarah Palin's speech was that it was a good one, perhaps a great one, but that it might have been a little too hot for the audience. Judging by the reports on focus groups that watched Palin's speech, it looks like my reaction might not have been that far off. First, here's Jake Tapper:

The Detroit Free Press invited a panel of Michigan voters to weigh in on Gov. Sarah Palin's speech last night. Their reactions run the gamut, but the independents didn't seem to care for her very much.

Now here's Seth Colter Walls:

In two different focus groups of Clinton-supporting Nevada women -- married and unmarried -- conducted immediately after Gov. Sarah Palin's Wednesday night speech to the Republican National Convention, a few common reactions quickly took shape.

First, women in both groups were impressed with Palin's speaking ability and poise. But they were hardly convinced that she was qualified to be vice president, or that she truly represented the "change" they were looking for, especially in light of what was deemed an overly harsh "sarcasm" pervading her address.

I'd recommend you reading through both stories to get a fuller picture of the reaction of these largely undecided voters, but what comes out is what is reported in the lede: Palin may have delivered a barnburner, and she might have gone far in helping John McCain shore up the Republican base, but when it came to wooing skeptical voters her performance was underwhelming -- and perhaps even counterproductive.

Americans aren't looking for another Newt Gingrich -- a hyper-partisan fire-breather who puts ideology and party over country -- but from the sounds of last night's speech, which again was very impressive, Palin might be just another Gingrich (or Spiro Agnew, if you prefer). Let's wait to see the polling before jumping to too hard of conclusions, both because these initial reactions are preliminary and unrepresentative and because the coverage of the speech matters nearly as much as the speech. But for now it looks like the speech might not have been the great success many within the GOP had hoped for.

Update [2008-9-4 18:54:10 by Jerome Armstrong]: Well, take te Detroit one with a large dose of skeptcism. Looks like they got played for 'Independent' alright.



Display:


Re: Focus Groups Suggest (2.00 / 1)

Maybe it's a good thing that 37 million watched the speech, then.


by rfahey22 on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:31:57 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups Suggest (2.00 / 2)

I want to hear what a focus group of male, white, working-class voters - preferably in Ohio or some other battleground state - thought of her.  If she didn't move them, McCain is cooked.


by KTinOhio on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:39:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest (none / 0)

I suspect you'll find the reactions of working-class voters are likely to vary based on whether you talk to voters in rural areas or in urban/suburban areas.

I wouldn't be surprised to find that Palin has quite a bit of appeal in small-town America.  In the other regions, not so much.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:04:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Even if you thought it was great... (2.00 / 0)

...(which I don't - I thought her delivery was off, but I also think Obama frequently has issues too), what was the point of the speech?

The Clintons' great speeches were designed to promote party unity.  Obama's great speech was there to show what change meant.  Palin?  It shored up the base I guess and means that she won't be dropped, but mainly it stopped bleeding.  There's a big difference between damage control and accomplishment.

Of course it does all depend on the spin and if the uppity clip is on video that could drive more people into the camp that thinks the RNC was just being mean.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:41:08 PM EST

Re: Even if you thought it was great... (none / 0)

yeah, i watched it on cnn and frankly i was a little surprised that they rah rah'd over the speech so much.  let's face it - she is a performer and she shows up with her game face on (a la GWB).  but what did the speech really accomplish that flipping off the cameras couldn't?


by the mollusk on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:49:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's my issue (2.00 / 1)

It really had no point. It wasn't designed to persuade you that Obama is bad, it just listed many criticisms of him. A subtle difference.

Bill Clinton did it best: "He's an honorable man, he loves his country, but he is wrong on the two great questions of this election".

Reaction: What do you mean Bill? Why is he wrong? Please tell me.

Palin was more like: "That low down sneaky scumbag son of a bitch has never done a decent day's work in his life, and when he fell off the turnip truck the average IQ of the turnips increased!"

Reaction: Uhhhhh..ok?


by Neef on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LOSER (none / 0)

Why do people keep saying the speech was impressive??

I found her to be a very boring speaker and her accent is really annoying.

They locked her in a room for four days to prepare.  I don't think she deserves an award for managing to stand upright, read and not drool!

I understand that she fired up their base.  I honestly don't see anything but Dan Quayle in pumps.  He fired up their base too.

Actually, I think she's fire us up just as much as she did them.


by GoldLame on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:42:29 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds (2.00 / 2)

This feels a lot like when she was nominated.  It was 1) who? 2) oh shit, this changes the game 3) ok, what else is on tv?


by the mollusk on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:46:51 PM EST

I wonder if you liked it (2.00 / 2)

Because you saw it through savvy political eyes? As a political speech it was good-to-great.

Where it failed was at the gut level. It was like watching a fight where the winner keeps hitting the loser after he's down. Or watching the class president completely demolish the class nerd, and then insult his sister =). There was no moderation in it, it was zealous and completely unrelenting. It painted a negative picture very well, but it never lead you to agree with that picture (Reagan's gift).

Political success, emotional failure.


by Neef on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:48:28 PM EST

Re: I wonder if you liked it (none / 0)

this is why Sarah Palin is no Barack Obama (even though many would like to paint her that way).  She didn't really offer us anything new.  She didn't say "this is the way forward"!  All she did was yell smugly at everyone who disagrees with her.


by the mollusk on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:31:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (2.00 / 2)

It will only go down hill from here...She gave a prepared speech that indicated she was strong at delivering "one liners".

If you notice the one time she spoke of foreign countries, she struggled and did not look comfortable mentioning them.

But I'm a lowly "community organizer" so what do I know...


Toot, thank you for raising such a terrific person...You done good and we will have you in our hearts.
by hootie4170 on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:49:37 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

Yeah, no kidding, what do community organizers know.

Why don't you get a job with "responsibilities"; like mayor of a small town, so that you can leave them with no money.


by GoldLame on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

You know we like our small towns and small town mayors.

So back off , lol..

I am not a fan of the whole small town line coming from some democrats , it seems like a lot of these folks are looking down on conservative values .

Which is a turn off..


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:55:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

Why is it, I wonder, that Republicans never have to worry about turning people off?  Like, for example, folks who live in communities that need help, and the people who try to get them that help?

Why is it a sin for Democrats to insult Mississippi, but no problem for Republicans to insult Massachusetts?  I never really got this one.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:07:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

lol...

You do have a point there .

Probably because they really don't think they have any use for those states politically .

However national democrats seem to need to pick up 1 or 2 of these states that have a lot of these small towns . i.e. the heartland .

It's a lot about the culture wars and electoral politics...


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (2.00 / 1)

It just bugs me a lot because I like small towns, I admire the small-town lifestyle, and I know that the politics of resentment doesn't put food on anyone's table.

Something is killing off our small towns but it sure ain't liberalism.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:46:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

Because they're hypocrites. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.


by Dari on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:42:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Small Town Politics (none / 0)

The difference is that small-town politics is even more of a game than the big leagues. There's a "gang" atmosphere that creates dynasties and makes people who don't actually do anything take over for people who have been getting things done.

That doesn't apply to Palin, though. If anything, she was getting way too much done, just not many results that were completely beneficial to the town or the country.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:38:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

Jesus was a "community organizer" and Pontius Pilate was a "governor"....Heh...


Toot, thank you for raising such a terrific person...You done good and we will have you in our hearts.
by hootie4170 on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:02:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

well I can tell you this much, comrade (none / 0)

the half a dozen skilled community organizers I talked to today are fired up to tear out her heart and show it to her while it's still beating.  And that's putting it mildly.

My best young staffer got up at 6AM this morning to pick up 100 absentee ballot requests, got a third of them filled out at her orthodontists, then went out to put in a full day's work for us.  She requested two days off next month right before the deadline to  register voters around the clock.  Why?  Sarah Palin.

oh no you didnt <shakes head> don't piss off a community organizer.


Jesus Christ was a community organizer and Pontius Pilate was a governor.
by GRO on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:33:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (2.00 / 1)

I wasn't a fan of the speech.

She delivered it with poise and confidence , it was pitch perfect.

However it lacked content.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:50:15 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

I'll have to agree that she delivered it well. This was flawed speechwriting, not flawed speaking.


by Neef on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

curious.  what is your take on her appeal to small town voters?

Do you think she'll connect with them because she is one of them?  Or do you think voters will say, 'hey, i don't think my mayor is ready to be president' and discount her experience?


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:01:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

Her conservative values should help her in small towns and she does have the capacity to be a rallying force for rural and small town voters depending on how she performs , especially under scrutiny .

Her candidacy seems to me to have more of a cultural impact than a gender impact , there would no doubt be some women who would rally to her based on different reasons but it seems like she wants to more or less be the working class hero , at least that is what I got from her introduction last night .

She didn't deal with issues and specifics especially issues women care about i.e. economy , education etc , she portrayed herself as a working class woman with small town/conservative values fighting the liberal/elitist agenda , establishment , party and candidate .

If that is the direction her candidacy is taking , then I think she could possible be a force among the working class , small town voters who maybe skeptical of Obama.

We should see in a few weeks how successful she is..


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:14:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

Thanks for the analysis.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Focus Groups (none / 0)

It was a mean spirited speech, full of personal vitriol toward liberals & Democrats.

It excited the audiance of knuckle shufflers in the arena and watching at home on Fox, but I'd be surprised if it endears her to anyone else. It certainly didn't help make the case that Obama is high on style and short on substance, being itself high on glitz but devoid of substance.


by nintendofanboy on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 04:55:12 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)

OVERRATED!


Yawn.
by spacemanspiff on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:01:56 PM EST

Nastiness. (none / 0)

I felt the same way when I watched the speeches by both Giuliani and Palin.  Incredibly nasty in parts, and I just couldn't imagine it playing well with moderates.  Honestly, when Palin made the crack about community organizing, I couldn't help but think of Coulter's "faggot" remarks or Limbaugh's attacks on Michael J. Fox.  She was making a speech meant to rally her base and anger her opponents, but I really don't see it sitting well with the people that are going to decide this election... the middle.


And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.
by thatpurplestuff on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:07:21 PM EST

Re: Nastiness. (none / 0)

I wonder how the people who live in communities struck by the hurricanes feel about community organizers.  Oh wait, that's soooo Sunday-Monday.


by the mollusk on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nastiness. (none / 0)

Giuliani was awesome, c'mon. You can't ask for something more entertaining than that. Kucinich was the only one who got even close to that kind of fire going.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:41:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How about a (none / 0)

MONEY BOMB!
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9 /4/163110/1585/19/586784

You know what to do!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:08:33 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups (none / 0)

My feeling was the same: She did not move anyone other than the base. Those diehards that were thinking about skipping but would never vote for Obama are still not going to vote for Obama. But Undecided? Not really. She spoke well but very unsophisticated and unprofessional Totally Partisan. That is not the right speech for a VP nominee.

In addition what is the deal with the GOP and Beauty queens. Katherine Harris w/ glasses anyone.

And what about her background. Obama went to Harvard law school. Where did she go? Idaho State U? what was her degree? Did she get one? Where did she rank?


by txexspeedy on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:20:32 PM EST

Palin took 344 points off the Dow (none / 0)

so much for her speech energizing America!!

I love James Wolcott

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/wolcott /

"The Palin Precipice

Not only can Sarah Palin field-dress a moose, but she can shave 344 points off the Dow with a single speech.

Well done, Medium Rea!

Sarah Palin: Bad for America, bad for wildlife, bad for your 401K."


by Dari on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:29:58 PM EST

Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa (none / 0)


Jesus Christ was a community organizer and Pontius Pilate was a governor.
by GRO on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:36:36 PM EST

New CBS Poll, not such good news... (none / 0)

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/0 4/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml

Tied.


by mady on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:56:42 PM EST

Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news... (none / 0)

Check the diary posted on here, party ID was really different. 6% more GOP, about 4-5% less independents. Considering the GOP margin is about 90/10, the lower numbers sound about right. Particularly for one that seriously can't be pushing that hard to get such a high number of undecideds.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:33:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news... (none / 0)

Check their party sample against the sample from last week.  As nextgen's diary points out, the "bounce" is largely attributable to a large decrease in the number of Democrats sampled.


by rfahey22 on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:34:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news... (none / 0)

Why would they do that?

Nevermind, I'll "ask" Poblano.  Unless you already have and he doesn't know.


by MeganLocke on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:40:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news... (none / 0)

What get headlines more? We got the same results as last week or "MAJOR SHIFT IN THE POLLS"  Not everything is politics. Somethings re just business. Rollercoaster polling data makes for better drama.


by bruh3 on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 07:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I find it funny that Jerome was blown away. (none / 0)

Those are incredibly damning reactions: given the fact that the entire night was designed to produce a positive response.  This isn't a debate where if a slight majority comes away with a more negative view of you it's no big deal.

My instinct was that you have to really dislike Obama for the speech to speak to you; if you don't, then it was just watching someone wag their finger at most of America.


by MeganLocke on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:42:38 PM EST

Re: I find it funny that Jerome was blown away. (none / 0)

I guess you can just read my next post to learn.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

mediacurves suggests a push. (2.00 / 1)

Mediacurves (www.mediacurves.com) did the most extensive reporting I've seen, with a thousand viewers nationwide split by party.

They asked the wrong question though - it was "do you think the selection of Palin will help or hurt John McCain's chances?"  That's asking people to tell you what they think other people are thinking.  When phrased that way, people view it positively;  that's no surprised because the media has pronounced it a success.

The interesting question is "does this make you more likely to vote for McCain?" - that's essentially "what did YOU think about the speech?"  I only looked at the Independant numbers, and it didn't move the needle - you have greater numbers saying yes and no, and fewer undecideds, but the proportions are the same.  Which a gut check ought to tell you anyway - she's a polarizing pick rather than one that's meant to appeal to independents.

Anyway, check it out.  Click on "detailed study" or whatever the actual datasheet is called - the summary is useless.


by MeganLocke on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 06:56:14 PM EST

Re: Undecideds Didn't Like Palin Speech (none / 0)

I can say there's one wobbly type who Palin pushed Democrat - my wife.  She was lukewarm on both the Big O and McCain, but Palin's snide, snarky, condescending speech turned her off completely.  Unfortunately we live in Nebraska, so a vote for Obama probably won't make much difference.  Still, a vote is a vote.


by jq on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 07:39:22 PM EST


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