The Plan Afterwards

Markos and Digby are right on, in my assessment: take the Paulson crap-burger off the table and start over. Yes, of course that makes sense, and it's only because the Republicans didn't deliver their votes that we even can think about this option.

However, its pretty clear to me that both McCain, and Obama, after talking with Bush today, have decided to both back the 'tinker' with the plan, to boost the FDIC insurance cap to $250,000, and that's it. If I'm wrong in my take what's happening, I'll take the lumps and be glad for it, but with adding on this little bit of FDIC coating, they'll look to get the extra 12 votes needed.

I oppose it and hope for something better, because this from Rick Perlstein:

If, on the morning of January 20, 2009, Barack Obama should wake up to find himself president, with 60 senators and 250 representatives, plus 60 percent of the public firmly in favor of passing universal health care, would his instincts direct him to ram the legislation through as quickly as possible? No one can say for sure. This attitude is so dormant in progressive thinking that it's hard to know whether we can revive it.
This already tough task won't happen unless it starts now. At its base, this budget-busting 700B - $1T bailout means no money to pay for anything of the sort. Lets see this attitude start right now in Congress, in bucking the bill for something better. And that should start with running on the plan, and not passing it before the election.

Update [2008-9-30 15:34:32 by Jerome Armstrong]: They got the votes, via the FDIC addition, it's pretty clear:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) today issued the following statement on the economic rescue package: “The presidential candidates’ support for increasing the FDIC cap is welcome news. Increasing the FDIC cap is a proposal put on the table by Roy Blunt and House Republicans but ruled out by Democrats during the negotiations that led to yesterday’s unsuccessful vote.”



Display:


Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 2)

Sadly this is what should have happened the day Paulson presented his plan. It should have been wadded up up and thrown in the trash.

The question now remains is there time for a completely new plan?

Strains worsened overnight in the credit markets, the plumbing of the economy that many businesses rely on to finance routine expenses like utilities and payroll. Banks sharply increased their lending rates on short-term loans, sending Libor, a globally watched benchmark rate, to its highest level ever. Several measures of anxiety in the market reached record highs. And new injections of money into the markets by central banks failed to dampen a hoarding mentality among financial institutions.

"The money markets have completely broken down, with no trading taking place at all," said Christoph Rieger, a fixed-income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. "There is no market any more. Central banks are the only providers of cash to the market; no one else is lending."


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:56:27 PM EST

of course if we fiddle.. (2.00 / 3)

.. while Rome burns and credit contracts to the point that we tip into a Depression, we won't have the money to pay for anything anyway.

Hey, but at least we'll still have our progressive street cred.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:57:31 PM EST

Re: of course if we fiddle.. (2.00 / 3)

Yeah, and Old Hank Paulson got his comuppance, he's probably flat broke today.

What? He, like the rest of the fat cats will probably get RICHER in the coming meltdown?

Listening to a lot of posters here, that is what this is all about:Payback time for the fat cats.

We can all just hunker down and ride this out?

That's how they did it in 1929, right?


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:03:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you think the rich would possibly be (none / 0)

shorting the bleep out of this market and letting those of us not rich enough hold the bag...perish the thought;)


by Dingaling on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:05:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: of course if we fiddle.. (2.00 / 1)

Sadly, executive pay the shiny object that many folks seem to be latching onto.  

Top-tier Wall Street compensation is an obscenity, but limiting it will not get us out of the mess we're in.

Clinging bitterly to our progressive ideals will either ensure the Dems 'own' whatever bailout happens because no Republicans come on board or ensures that nothing happens and, as you noted, that worked really well in 1929.  


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:10:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Depression is Locked In (none / 0)

30+ years of fiat money have assured that.

So, no, this plan hasn't a chance in hell of preventing an economy based on consumption and exporting jobs overseas from experiencing a SEVERE contraction.

Let's gut-up, learn our lesson, mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable, and press on.


by Paul Goodman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Depression is Locked In (2.00 / 1)

You are either bat-crap crazy or the ulimate in libertarian cats.

The depression is locked in, don't even ATTEMPT to try anything? Wow, that will really punish those bad evil wall streeters?  

LOL, cause the Depression was a great training session for the poor and middle class, toughened them right up.

Ok, you have been posting all over the place, my challenge to you is

Find ONE economist who agrees, the depression is locked in, let's just ride this out?


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:02:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 2)

And that should start with running on the plan, and not passing it before the election.

This single comment shows you just don't understand what's going on.

This is not a long-term bailout.  This is a short-term bailout to stop credit markets from tanking.  The same credit markets that run our economy.

Watch this and get back to me:

http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=Wj_JNwNbET A

It's an hour long, but you could use it.

Also -- since you have so much disdain for the bill, how about a few sentences of insight into why you hate it to much?  Something a little deeper than partisan propaganda.

Note that I don't think the bill's perfect either.  But it would be nice to have informed discussion about why it sucks rather than uninformed discussion.


by randomscientist on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:02:12 PM EST

Re: The Plan Afterwards (none / 0)

At its base, this budget-busting 700B - $1T bailout means no money to pay for anything of the sort.

How much do you think our deficit will be next year?

RE: the 'crisis' bs about this being here before you know it already. That was last Friday, Monday morning, Tuesday.... It's 35 days before the election, how long do we have?


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:05:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You apparently don't care (2.00 / 1)

That no one will care what the deficit is when they lose another 3 trillion in their retirement and savings when we bottom out in the low 8000DJIA .

Seriously, this isn't some bullshit about making sure all people are lifted up...all people got pushed down yesterday. A trillion was lost, small companies are close to not being able to float payroll.

And "progressives" don't care because they think only a few are affected...millions have their lives tied up in this financial market (beyond bad housing loans) and playing politics with a plan to stop the bleeding (it wasn't giving him 700 billion up front) is cruel and just as bad as the Repugs shutting down the goverment 14 years ago.


by PHDinNYC4Kerry on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:10:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (2.00 / 1)

Welcome to the world of inner city minorities who Democrats (and obviously the Republicans too) have not shown any urgency in reforming their world of education and health care. So why the rantings now? Oh, because either you are affected or people you know are affected? We won't be affected any worse than those who go generations condemned to a life with no hope.

We kept postponing healthcare and education reform even in areas controlled by Democrats. Guess what. it is time you feel how they feel.

Personally, my world will not come to an end. I do not have debts. I do not have retirement accounts. I spend wisely. Sure, my mom's 401K will get affected. I will help her out if she loses bigtime in the worst case.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:16:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

And you'd help out how, if there are no jobs to be had? Since whatever savings you have is at risk of being wiped out by hyperinflation, if the markets collapse enough that we wind up going into hyperinflation to create artificial liquidity, what are you going to use to help out?

I'm not sure people really understand that this is about wiping out things like jobs. A true depression will do more to wipe out education, health care, etc, then the Republicans ever could by blocking policy. If there are no jobs, there are no jobs. If there's no credit, there are no jobs. Yes -- it's really that bad.

We're not locked into it. And the Paulson plan, even as currently modified, sucks. We need to do a lot more on the consumer end, we need mandated equity (we need an RTC-like structure, really, and/or the Swedish plan, which are pretty similar to my non-economist eyes).

But the Paulson plan, as awful as it is, is better than fiddling for the next two months while Rome burns. We should push, and push hard, to get something better accomplished, and I'm hoping that it's not just a modified FDIC cap (which is practically useless for most people).

The irony here is that, if we go into hyperinflation, being debt-free isn't an advantageous position and may be quite disadvantageous (depending on what your debt is in). To the extent that there are no jobs, everyone goes down. But the people whose debt is manifested in stuff can sell their stuff at hyperinflated prices and use it to pay off pre-inflation fixed-interest-rate debt at bargain rates and barter for things like food. People who were frugal and have no debt but no stuff can't do that.


No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!
by Texas Gray Wolf on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:28:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

My point wsa that where is this urgency for people who already undergo conditions similar to what you suggest will happen to many of us hypothetically in the future. People are already close to that state in inner cities and all democrats do is we will take care of it in due time.

We want an IMMEDIATE fix now though there is no hard proof that fighting over it for another couple of weeks will be really that disastrous. If yo unever learn lessons, you are condemned to repeat mistakes in the future. I want to see a provision where people in government who missed the signs or those who saw the signs and did nothing to come up with advance plans as a contingency resign.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 09:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

How do you get there from here about my not caring? Amazing.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

If $1 trillion was lost yesterday, apparently about $450 billion has been made so far today.  A few more days like this and we'll come out ahead.


by the mollusk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:17:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

the market is reacting to the hope of a new bailout.  Also, the markets are just the symptoms of the real problem, the credit freeze, whcih could/will stop commerce.  I don't know how long it will take, but we need something.  I'd like another plan developed, stat, and if Dems have to own it all by themselves, so be it


by KLRinLA on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:39:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

Now that I can definitely agree with.  But my larger point was that even though the markets tanked on Monday and, as Suze Ormann kept reminding us on AC360 last night, $1.2 trillion were lost on Monday.  That's a bad number, but that's not the end of the game.  The markets were back up in a big way today and some of that was probably expectation that something will pass.  On the other hand, part of it may have been investors realizing that the market WAY overreacted on Monday.  This is precisely why it is unhelpful to focus on unfathomable sums of money gained or lost on a single day.


by the mollusk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:34:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You apparently don't care (none / 0)

indeed, but by the same token, just cuz it went back up doesn't mean we aren't possibly in a severe situation.  I am not suggesting you are saying that, either, just carrying the logic through.  Really fickle and dramatic markets scare me, it shows the fundamentals of an economy are, wait for it, NOT strong.    


by KLRinLA on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 07:15:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (none / 0)

The crisis is already here.  Banks are no longer lending to each other.  The effect of this is credit contraction.  The longer this goes on, the tighter the contraction.

We won't see the full effect of this for a few months.  But, the result will be higher unemployment, lower economic output and a deeper recession.  Just as we didn't see the full effect of too easy credit for a few years, it is going to take time to see the full effect of too 'hard' credit.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A Day of Reckoning (none / 0)

is inevitable for our debt-based, job-exporting economy.

Nothing can prevent that, any delay makes it LONGER and WORSE.


by Paul Goodman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:37:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Day of Reckoning (2.00 / 0)

Are you perchance the Ghost of Herbert Hoover reincarnated?


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:04:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Day of Reckoning (2.00 / 0)

Well, the comments certainly suck.  Wait, wrong Hoover.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:08:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Day of Reckoning (none / 0)

Not necessarily.

First, we need to start shifting back somewhat to local manufacturing and R&D prior to the collapse. That's part of what the entire green-jobs push is about -- if we shift into extensive manufacturing of green-energy equipment we create an entirely new manufacturing economy.

Second, we're the AIG of the world (not the only one, but in that category). We're too big to fail. If we fail, the dominoes fall over the world, and most of those dominoes mean full-out revolutions in other countries (China and the Middle East at least). The governments of those countries, who control the way the U.S. is treated, have an enormous personal interest (in terms of keeping their heads attached to the rest of their bodies) in propping us up. If our economy dies figuratively, they die literally.

That doesn't mean we can't come out of it relatively poorer -- but it does mean the picture is a lot bigger than just our own economy being screwed up.


No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!
by Texas Gray Wolf on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:34:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 4)

Rather than engage in armchair speculation about whether paranoia is warranted, why not just listen to some economists:

Krugman:

So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch. As a friend said last night, we've become a banana republic with nukes.

Salmon:

But if a vicious spiral in the credit markets takes hold without any hope for hundreds of billions of dollars of US government money to come in and stabilize things, that could spell disaster for an economy which needs credit to grow.

Cowen:

The worst case scenario: Credit markets freeze up within the next week and many businesses cannot meet their payrolls.  Margin calls cannot be met and the NYSE shuts down for a week.  Hardly anyone can get a mortgage so most home prices end up undefined rather than low.  There is an emergency de facto nationalization of banks to keep the payments system moving.  The Paulson plan is seen as a lost paradise.  There is no one to buy up the busted hedge funds, so government and the taxpayer end up holding the bag.  The quasi-nationalized banks are asked to serve political ends and it proves hard to recapitalize them in private hands.  In the very worst case scenario, the Chinese bubble bursts too.

These aren't libertarian wackos.

Just based on the evidence, it doesn't appear to be a repeat of Colin Powell pushing bogus evidence of a crisis on the world.  There seems to be some consensus that the danger is real and imminent.

Seriously, I don't mean to be an ass, but if you're going to argue that there is no crisis at least bring something more than rhetoric to the table.  I thought you hated "just words"  :)


by randomscientist on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:28:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 2)

Right.
This is not the same as bad intelligence.
This is some of the most conservatives folks out there seeing a real danger urging a solution even if it means instituting measures that are 100% opposite of their ideals.

Now we have a bunch of arm chair economists second guessing these guys because they "feel" we can wait.

Just like Hoover felt that the markets can correct themselves.


by gil44 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 0)

Just like Hoover felt that the markets can correct themselves.

That sure worked out great, didn't it?


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (none / 0)

You seriously tell me the world will go to hell if they wait another week or two to get it right? If you can't get any reforms tied into this bill, you will probably not have meaningful reforms passed in the future .


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not hell (none / 0)

but it's very possible a large number of small business will have to close, because they won't have funds for payroll and other expenses...and there starts the death spiral


by PHDinNYC4Kerry on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:12:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not hell (none / 0)

Can you seriously back that up? I have a lot of friends and relatives with small businesses. I do not know a single one of them affected yet. THat doesn't mean everyone is not affected. But extrapolating that small sample size shouldn't translate to that huge of a variance.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not hell (2.00 / 1)

The correct word is YET!

Credit is tightening, and, companies can struggle it out for a while.

I asked my CTO, she said, we could get by for 6 months on our cash reserves.

But, if they actions to survive are lay-offs, once THAT spiral begins, it can be YEARS to undo the damage.

A business that downsizes, or closes it's doors can't be turned back on like a light switch...


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:29:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not hell (none / 0)

I dont think waiting a week or two to do this right will cause many companies to undergo drastic changes. A few probbly will.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They cannot back it up (none / 0)

I'll save them the reply.

PS After waving the red-flag of financial disaster for years (not merely hard times), I have credibility. America needs to tighten its belt. ANYONE who argues ANYTHING ELSE is lying.


by Paul Goodman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not hell (none / 0)

I'm über-ignorant here, but my guess is that it's more analogous to "peak oil."  It's not as if one day we will wake up and say "oh shit!  No more oil!"  Instead, oil prices will start rapidly increasing as demand exceeds supply.  Similarly, short-term credit will just start becoming a lot more expensive, leading companies to cut back various forms of spending.  Read Krugman's blog for the past few days.


*meh*
by failsafe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:52:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not hell (none / 0)

Here's one example:

Reader Pierre is a small business owner who has an American Express Business Account that used to have a $25,000 limit, but has now been cut to $1,800. He says his company's bill is usually around $12,000 a month, and it is always paid in full -- on time. While Pierre is clearly upset with American Express, the Wall Street Journal says that all banks are cutting access to credit.

Real, liberal economists say the threat of a serious credit crunch is real.  Doesn't that count for something?


by randomscientist on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not hell (none / 0)

So why weren't the DEmocrats demanding a plan to be reviewed a couple of months ago? There were signs of this disasters months ago. This is hardly a surprise. Why aren't heads rolling? Democrats are partly responsible for not forcing a more vocal debate on this issue months ago.

It is frustrating for me and for others on all aides here  that many of us have to debate this without complete info on what is going on. I know I am partially ignorant on what is going on. And I know many of the people advocating for a bailout regardless of how flawed it is do not have enough info either. Most of us, including I , really do not know for sure what is going on. Until then, some of us will have to demand conditions to keep the politicians honest. That is all we can do as amateur economists.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 09:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

or the list of books you've read to formulate your conclusions? I'm baffled how people with no real background feel they know what will solve this thing, or even what's ruly at stake...And by all this wait and see, taking this money away from other things will mess our priorities up talk, it's pretty apparent you need to read up more...Is the best plan on the table yet, NO, but your blockquote is just silly...Just remember, if your down by 21 and at 4th and 15 in the Super Bowl with 5 minutes left, punting is probably a silly call.


by Dingaling on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:03:13 PM EST

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

How many more days do we have?  

Wasn't it already supposed to have collapsed, what's your fear timeline that you've got for me?


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:07:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 3)

Jerome, credit markets world wide are tightening up, watching wallstreet pogostick up and down doesn't tell the story.

At some point, there IS a point of no return, where short term credit just becomes none existent.

So, YOU don't know, I don't know, Fricking Paul Krugmann doesn't know when the hammer might drop.

But, it's kind of gamble to think we can roll the dice till whenver?

Also, do you think a complete meltdown puts the Democrats and Obama in a BETTER bargaining position or worse?

My take is WORSE, cause at that point, the damage is done to the Repubs, they just want to hand Obama the biggest boat anchor possible!!!

They will become MORE obstructionist, because THEN the pain is no longer Bush's, but Obama's.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:15:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 6)

All I can suggest to you - stop looking at the Market ticker. This is not where the problem lies.

This is what you should be watching:

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for such loans climbed 431 basis points to an all-time high of 6.88 percent today, the British Bankers' Association said. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for one-month loans jumped to a record 5.05 percent, the European Banking Federation said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of the scarcity of cash, also increased to an all-time high.

So in essence the credit market is rapidly freezing.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bingo (2.00 / 3)

It's not about the value of equities - the fundamental principles of trust of interbank lending have been shot to pieces

It's gone from a liquidity crisis to a solvency crisis, and the asset value is rapidly becoming irrelevant

Kudos to Jerome though for coming up with an arguments at last, rather than than mood music impressionism


Moose Juice; debate without hate
by brit on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:21:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 3)

Exactly.  Already frozen actually.  TED spread up over 3 points and holding.  Credit spreads well beyond 'recessionary' levels.  Sheesh.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interest rates are TOO LOW (none / 0)

Hello? McFly?

That is what was wrong with the debt-driven economy! No thought of the future, no thought of inflation, no incentive for preserving natural resources!

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig!


by Paul Goodman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:43:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interest rates are TOO LOW (2.00 / 2)

Good grief. We are not talking about a debt ridden economy here. This has nothing to do with individual debt.

In it's simplest terms we are talking about what businesses and even governments need to bridge the time lag between receivables and payables. The most highly profitable companies using short term credit to meet immediate cash needs - Payroll, material expenses etc.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interest rates are TOO LOW (2.00 / 1)

Thank you.

I wrote an ENTIRE DIARY on that, but Paul has his own agenda.

"the day of reckoning is here!"

He sounds like the Religous end of the world crazies standing on the corner, excoriating the pedistrians with tale of the appocalypse.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:04:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

Seriously, your response is so petty and ridiculous, i'm finding the words hard to respond to...Who knows when it all collapses, is that what we wait for nowdays, for our whole economy to completely collapse before it's acceptable to act? I know this site is run by you, but seriously, you need to smarten up son


by Dingaling on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

A couple of weeks ago, we were told that they needed to sign on IMMEDIATELY, otherwise we were in big danger. Now, we are told the same thing again. It could be true, but do they really have any credibility? And if they were such smart experts, why didn't they forsee this a couple of months ago? And those who did foresee this were derelict in their duty to do whatever it took to force people to come up with a bill. They need to be accountable. This bill does nothing to raise accountability which means mistakes will be repeated in the future. Making a bailout purely a short term fix.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:12:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

They did see this months ago.  This plan was drawn up months ago.  The question really is, why did they wait until now to present it??  

Yes, this is a short term fix, but it will keep the economy going until REAL legislation can be put in place.


by Pa Woman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 1)

It's people with degrees in Economics - most of whom graduated from the Chicago School - who got us into this mess and are now trying to ram a sizzling shitburger down our throats.

A 700 billion dollar wad of cash isn't the one and only answer. If the Congress votes to hand over half that and promise to continue debate it would ease credit significantly, as long as they also demand  mortgage restructuring. If people who are able to do so keep paying their house notes then there will be a hell of a lot less worthless paper to panic over.


by Spiffarino on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 2)

It's those damned engineers who designed the Challenger, and look -- kablooie!  Let me ask my uncle Mert about how he done gonna make dem space rockets.


*meh*
by failsafe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, I pick my economic experts like I do my Presidents...

You know, guys I want to have a beer with.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:09:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

I would totally have a beer with Krugman and Delong!


*meh*
by failsafe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (none / 0)

I took some econ courses in college. I will just say when it comes to macroeconomics, you can see two respected professors come up with two very different suggestions on the same situation.

I doubt half the econommists in the country even have a clue what they are talking about when it comes to the interdepencies involved on such a large scale.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:19:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can we see your degree in economics (2.00 / 1)

And this is a reason to listen to a political hack?  Look, Economics may not be a science in the same way that Physics and Chemistry are sciences, but at least economists make their living studying the economy.


*meh*
by failsafe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:58:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (none / 0)

There has been a segment of the American population that DEmocratic leaders have been paying lip service to but not really showing a fraction of the urgency that they show to this bailout. Remember for how long they have been talking about public education reform or universal health care? Do you think generations of the same segment of population more adversely hit by the lack of movement on those fronts are any better off than the people affected by a lack of bailout?

So why the urgency for just this bailout they are not even sure can work? They have already been wrong on the movement of the stock market. Is tightening credit really such an awful thing? People who had no business getting credit got too much of it already.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:07:22 PM EST

The Plan Always Was... (none / 0)

...to ensure there would be no option left but to destroy the social safety net in the U.S. This is the GOP's attempt at the final undoing of the New Deal.

That their own backbenchers killed it was a shock to the R's in charge and possibly the one last chance we have to get it right. While I doubt the Dems will have the cojones to follow through with a plan of their own, hope springs eternal.


by Spiffarino on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:07:42 PM EST

Re: The Plan Always Was... (none / 0)

You are ascribing too much deviousness to what is simple incompetence.


by RickD on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:11:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

At a fundemental level (2.00 / 1)

I don't think you understand the plan.

It is not going to cost anything close to 700 Billion.   It will likely not even be on budget, and as a result will have zero impact on the actual budget deficit.  

There will be assets acquired when the plan is implemented.  The best guess is that these assets are worth MORE than $700 Billion in a properly functioning market.  

I will repeat: there are things I don't like in this plan.  I cannot believe that Paulson is going to be allowed to continue as Treasury Secretary, for example.  


by fladem on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:09:51 PM EST

Re: At a fundemental level (none / 0)

What kind of interest will we be paying on a $700 billion loan to buy the bad debt?  Will selling those assets (to who, exactly?) also cover interest?  Also, there was a requirement that the cost be recouped in five years and if it isn't that the Treasury had to come up with a plan to recoup the costs from Wall Street.

I can see the headlines five years from now:

"Shaky Wall Street firms balk at repayment plan"
"Agreement reached on repayment plan, leaves many scratching heads."
"Repayment plan may not have worked as planned."
"Nation at risk: Spiraling debt threatens many domestic programs."


by the mollusk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:22:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: At a fundemental level (2.00 / 1)

so...increasing the debt by $700 billion will have no effect on our economy?

In fact, we'll make money on this????

Somehow, I think if this were a money-making proposition, people in the private sector would be willing to do it.  


by RickD on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 1)

This won't cost anything close to $700B (a lot of redeemable mortagages, final bill should have strong pay-back requirements).  As pointed out above, a major recession will hamstring Obama's agenda more than this.

Yes, the bill yesterday had enough flaws that it was worth rejecting, but strengthening oversight and the elimination of golden parachutes, plus more assurance that the taxpayers are first in line for paybacks can still make a workable solution.


by LanceS on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:10:40 PM EST

Even if true (none / 0)

you don't realize that when this plan fails to extricate us from The Crisis, guess what? They will be back for MORE!

That is why the people are drawing a line in the sand!

The only way forward is to put the American economy back on a net savings foundation.


by Paul Goodman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Doesn't Obama (none / 0)

realize that he will be hamstrung for most of his first term if this passes?

It will effectively guarantee that there is no money for anything new that he might want- meanwhile he will have to continue to fund the war until he can get the troops home.

This bill could very well destroy an Obama presidency before it starts.


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:13:08 PM EST

worse (none / 0)

he will be worse off if we're in a mini-depression/severe recession. the funds used for this will very likely come back with a profit.


by PHDinNYC4Kerry on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: worse (none / 0)

"the funds used for this will very likely come back with a profit."

Link?


by the mollusk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:23:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: worse (none / 0)

he'll link you to a recent speech...


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: worse (none / 0)

Likely to come up with a profit? If i play blackjack, I am likely to make a 1000 bucks on the first hand. Both are true facts.

It is true this wont cost 700B. But I need the government to explain clearly why there won't be any more bailouts after this. Why did they not foresee this (in case they deny that they  knew it all along). And if they knew about it, why didn't they discuss this months ago so everyone would have time to finetune this if the worst case did happen. This is DERELICTION OF DUTY that this is being brought up in the last minute and holding the complexity of economics over our heads and holding us hostage to what the right thing to do should be.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 09:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Doesn't Obama (2.00 / 2)

Passing no bill has the exact same potential.  We could lose a lot more than $700 billion in revenue if 50 million people lose their jobs.


by semiquaver on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:35:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (2.00 / 1)

Interesting.  Looking forward to seeing that.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:14:19 PM EST

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

Me too.

Hopefully they have been listening to Krugmann and other economists about how we can move from buying bad debt to equity stakes or stock option buys...


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

Very interesting!  I'm curious!!!

I still think that the best plan I've heard came from an economist at Carnagie Mellon U.  Basically he said that giving loans to the beleagured banks and forcing them to pay them back BEFORE they could pay ANY dividends to shareholders was effective in Chili.  If Chili can come up with solutions like this, what the heck is wrong with our legislature?


by Pa Woman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:38:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

Dennison's Chili?  Or Chile?  ;)


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (2.00 / 1)

LOL!  Whoops!  That's what I get for typing fast and not proof-reading!  :)


by Pa Woman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

No worries.  I typo constantly.  Especially when I'm chilly. (ba dum bump; cue laugh track).


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:09:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Plan Afterwards (none / 0)

Let's start by getting new leadership in the House and the Senate.

Pelosi and Reid have proven over the last two years they are bringing knives to a gunfight.

We need aggressive, intelligent progressives who are willing to stand toe-to-toe with the minority leaders and not blink.

Nothing is going to get accomplished if we continue to be led by a couple of feckless empty shirts.


by charliemike on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:23:24 PM EST

Re: The Plan Afterwards (2.00 / 3)

So you clearly don't like this plan, but what would a progressive version look like?  You and Kos have nothing constructive to say besides 'no way', and you're now openly mocking Obama for coming down on the side that doesn't endanger millions of jobs.  Digby appears to endorse an extremely vague modern day New Deal, which, I'm sorry, makes absolutely no sense and betrays a fundamental lack of understanding about the issue.  The new deal was designed to end the great depression through job creation, emergency relief, and social programs.  It also included reforms to prevent the financial abuses that caused the stock market to crash in the first place.  The ND was fundamentally reactive to a total economic collapse which had already occured, whereas what we need now is something proactive.  We still have a good chance of preventing a depression or at least deflecting the the blow that the market collapse will cause.  

I'm all for social programs and reform, but the fundamental issue right now is the illiquid toxic paper clogging up the markets.  That's what's going to fuck our economy, and any program that doesn't directly address that issue is not going to stop a collapse.  This is a hard pill to swallow, but if you're going to oppose it, why not talk about specific proposed alternatives?  The urgency of the situation was probably exaggerated, but that doesn't mean we don't need to pass something ASAP.  Creating jobs is great.  Ending the abuses that caused this situation is likewise great.  But there's a ticking time bomb in our lap that we have a chance to defuse, and that shit is secondary.  Advocating a bill to bring us out of a depression that hasn't happened yet rather than preventing it from happening in the first place is downright stupid.


by semiquaver on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:29:35 PM EST

The bomb has already gone off (none / 0)

they tried to hide it from us, now that they can't, they want us to pay for the clean up.

The Empire Has No Clothes!


by Paul Goodman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The bomb has already gone off (none / 0)

So would you have supported the bailout, say, this time last year?


by semiquaver on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The bomb has already gone off (none / 0)

No, but at least if the discussion started last year, people and politicians who do not have an econ background would be able to make a better decision faster.

It would also force us to have more meaninful primaries where we could have asked the obamas and the Hillaries how they plan on funding the programs they promise with this crisis coming up.  All those promises by all candidates can go to the trashbin.


by Pravin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 09:40:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Breaking from the received wisdom (2.00 / 1)

Jerome. You've been courageous, if some would say foolhardy, in breaking from the political correctness of the blogosphere in the last few months. I would say this really is a time to depart from Kos and Digby again.

The scepticism they avow, with it's mingled threads of social retaliation against fat cats, short term media strategising, and plain ignorance of economics, is not the way to go now.

I might be wrong. What do I know? But I've a good sense when the blogosphere moves into groupthink, and I'm pretty sure this is one of them.


Moose Juice; debate without hate
by brit on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:29:37 PM EST

Re: Breaking from the received wisdom (2.00 / 1)

Don't worry, I got there on my own. I don't endorse any single plan on how to deal with the problem, and am not going to pretend its my expertise. What I do know is political timing, and this reeks of manufactured crisis set for passage that self-fulfills itself by selling fear.

Cooler heads will prevail with a better plan if there's not an election on the table within a month. I might be wrong, the whole world may stop having money, but that's the sense I have-- better to wait, pass a 45 day stop-gap if necessary, and get around the corner.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking from the received wisdom (2.00 / 1)

better to wait, pass a 45 day stop-gap if necessary, and get around the corner.

So why not just say this upfront, rather than initiating a full-on flamewar?  I agree that some kind of stopgap (if possible) would be best, but I don't see how your histrionics get us closer to that.
*meh*
by failsafe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:01:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking from the received wisdom (2.00 / 1)

Yeah I agree. I think they faked the failure of Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers, and AIG. Man, they're good.  ;)


by brimur42 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking from the received wisdom (none / 0)

The problem is fake.  The idea that the Paulson plan is the only possible solution is fake.

It's kind of like responding to terrorism by invading Iraq.  Yeah, you're doing something, and it costs a lot of money, but I'm not seeing how it solves the problem.  


by RickD on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking from the received wisdom (2.00 / 1)

eh, that should have been "The problem is not fake."


by RickD on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:11:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking from the received wisdom (none / 0)

Who knows if anything will work. But I don't know how you don't restore confidence among these massive lending institutions that they can continue to provide short term credit to one another without drastic government action.

We're the party of FDR, we're the party that believes in the capacity of government to preserve order and help things.


by brimur42 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 10:38:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here! Here! (2.00 / 1)

This mirrors my thinking.  Pass a stop-gap, run on the final answer and keep the options open for January.


by teknofyl on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:35:48 PM EST

Re: Here! Here! (none / 0)

Where?  Where?

("Hear! Hear!" is what people usually say.)


by RickD on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:09:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

I await with bated breath.  Are there any details about this plan anywhere?  Why would OpenLeft endorse 'five simple steps' without knowing what they are?


by semiquaver on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:40:46 PM EST

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

There is no chance of getting this through congress and signed by the president.


by gil44 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:42:29 PM EST

Re: The onus then (none / 0)

This should not be about passing the buck, putting onuses on anyone.

Its about staving off a major recesscion


by gil44 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Plan (none / 0)

Is Blumenauer on board with it?


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:51:50 PM EST

Nationalize Failing Banks (none / 0)

Why not nationalize failing banks and take-over the role of granting loans directly to businesses that are not able to secure loans elsewhere.

If the problem is that businesses will fail for lack of the ability to procure loans, then the government should just step in a take on that role.  Why try to go about it in a half-arsed way, buying CDS and other toxic securities in the hope that this will stabilize the credit markets.  Of course, all those sleazy, dirty, filthy, money-grabbing egoists in the financial system will take their piece of the pie with each transaction.

Why can't government just go into business and compete with the other banks directly in giving loans to the businesses directly.  It seems before all this crazy derivatives craze hit Wall Street that the banks made a decent living this way.


by apathykills on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:54:48 PM EST

If the economy tanks, because of the loss of (none / 0)

credit, then there won't be money to buy a bowl of cornflakes, let alone anything else.

Extreme right and left wingers seem not to mind getting into a pissing match over this and letting the ship go down in the process.

That is the same old politics we need to change.

The senate is evenly divided, and Bush can veto, so we can't get everything we want. So fight for what you can, give up what you must, and pass something.


by IowaMike on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:00:38 PM EST

Or... (2.00 / 1)

Here's an informed take on the whole thing.


*meh*
by failsafe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:17:57 PM EST


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