MyDD :: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest

CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 06:30:53 PM EST

The McCain campaign has made a serious play at bringing Minnesota into the Republican fold this year and making sure that Iowa goes red, as it did for George W. Bush in 2004. But the latest polling seems to indicate that these efforts are falling on deaf ears.

In a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Wednesday afternoon, 55 percent of Iowa registered voters who were questioned said that Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 40 percent backing McCain, R-Arizona. That's more than double the lead Obama had in a University of Iowa poll taken early last month.

"Obama is winning in all regions of the state -- even in the western counties where George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 17 points," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Obama is winning rural voters in Iowa -- not something you see in many other states."

[...]

It appears to be a similar story in Minnesota, where the Republicans are holding their national convention this week.

The poll indicates that Obama has a 12-point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent.

Without these latest surveys in the mix, Barack Obama's lead in Iowa and Minnesota were 6.5 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, according to Pollster.com. With competitive congressional races in both states, as well as an important Senate contest in Minnesota, the fact that Obama is currently running so far ahead of John Kerry in these two states is important.

While Minnesota and Iowa do not appear to be tightening up, the numbers out of Ohio are a bit swingier.

The poll suggests he has a two-point lead over McCain, 47 percent to 45 percent, which is a virtual tie when taking into account the survey's 3.5-percentage-point sampling error.

Overall, Obama seems to be faring quite well in the wake of the Democratic National Convention and the initial announcement of Sarah Palin as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee. Of course it will be worth waiting at least another week, perhaps even two, before jumping to too hard of conclusions about the state of the race, as tens of millions will presumably tune in tonight and tomorrow night to see Palin and John McCain deliver their speeches. That all said, there can be few complaints about the initial movement since the DNC and where the race now sits.

Tags: White House 2008, OH-Pres, MN-Pres, IA-Pres (all tags)

Permalink :: 24 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

NOW, thensend Obama and Biden out to hit the road, hard! Have them LIVE in those battle ground states.

They are going to hide Palin in the churches and in invitation only events, lest the press have at her.

McCain is going to get very angry when this starts slipping away.

Push the advantage NOW, be out there every day selling the message.

Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 06:42:36 PM EST

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

Remember too the ground game in the rust belt is massive for Obama and is nonexistent for McPOW.

by moondancer on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 06:50:54 PM EST

I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

Of all the "battleground" states, I think Palin hurts McCain the most in Flordia among senior citizens who probably dislike her for the same reasons they dislike Obama, jewish voters, and Cubans who place a lot of emphasis on foreign policy and national security.

I'd also like to see the next Virginia poll. Lori has rightly pointed out that the polls indicated that Obama wasn't beating McCain by a large enough margin in northern virginia to eventually win the state in November; I think Palin could give Obama a chance to get the Warner-like margins that he'll need in Northern VA, in addition to jacking up black turnout, to win the state.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 07:00:27 PM EST

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

Hi Blazer,

I am also wondering if there isn't another shoe to drop, maybe in the investigation of this AIP connection with her Husband?

That group sounds fishes to me, kind of seperatist black-helicopter kind of stuff...

Sometimes, those groups attract a lot of anti-Semitic types...

Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 07:06:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

I know my mom's friends are all coming around all of a sudden. Jews for Jesus is powerful stuff.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 07:23:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

I'm reading Florida blogs that are very different.
And while there are many Jews in Florida, there are many more non-Jews. And the Christian right is very strong down there.

And people want to keep their tax status too.

Florida is definitely in play.

by stefystef on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Florida is in play... (none / 0)

that's terrible news for McCain. Myself and the two previous posters agree with you that Florida is in play; I would argue that it wasn't in play with HRC not getting selected for VP but McCain just put it back in play with the Palin pick.

Your evidence is no better than the previous poster's evidence. We have to go by polls and the polls show Florida to be a toss-up slightly leaning to McCain prior to the convention and Palin selection. You may be right but let's see what the polls show next week in Florida.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

I don't think you are going to the get the results you are looking for. I just came from Florida and people liked her. Even older voters felt her situation made her more "human".

Only the MSM is making a big issue about this, but the general population- dealing with the same issues as Palin- will relate to her.

I know many on this site are trying to bring this women down, but I'm afraid that will backfire. The Republicans want to rally around someone- and it will Palin.

by stefystef on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:05:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

I am very happy that the Republicans have found someone to rally around. It's unfortunate that that person has turned off a huge chunk of independents and Democrats. And I think that if you are an anti-Obama voter, you should realize that you have become a lost cause and don't carry much weight here.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:14:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

I didn't say who I was voting for... I'm not a lemming and I don't do bandwagons.

And there is no indication that she's has turned off anyone, except the MSM looking to make drama for ratings.

I do notice a real reduction of postings here since the end of the primaries. People are moving away from the blogs because so many people are so hostile to opinions different from their own.

by stefystef on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 10:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'd love to see the next Florida poll (none / 0)

Have you not seen the polls? McCain has LOST ground since Palin, not gained it. We'll see his bounce this week, but Palin did absolutely nothing to steel herself against the serious allegations and problems with her former governance.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 08:03:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sarah Palin might be the (none / 0)

worst.veep-choice.ever.

She is going to energize the psycho-wing of the Republican party (unless there turns out to be some real evidence that she is in favor of Alaska seceding from the Union.)

But other than that I just don't see what she brings to the ticket. I was really afraid when the pick was announced. It turns out that of all the things that could go wrong with this election for us Sarah Palin is really not on the list.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 07:42:51 PM EST

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

I'm still somewhat worried about Palin's potential pull among apolitical women.

I had a numbing example in that regard late this afternoon, a phone call from my 65ish aunt in Miami, asking if I was going to watch Palin tonight. She had joy in her voice, genuine curiosity, to the point she knew exactly what time the speech was slated to begin.

This is the first year I've seen her engaged in politics, as a Hillary supporter throughout the winter and spring. She was miffed when Hillary fell behind, and frequently wanted me to encourage her that Hillary would pull it out. I kept finessing things while trying to detail the bottom line, very close but not within reach.

A month ago she called and asked about Obama, knowing I wasn't overly enthused about him but wanting assurance I would vote that way. I told her, of course, and she indicated the same thing. But tonight she seems to be flirting with Sarah Palin and therefore McCain.

by Gary Kilbride on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 08:13:29 PM EST

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

I think some people are telling pollsters and Obama callers that they will vote for Obama, but are thinking differently.

I agree with your observation.

by stefystef on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 08:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

REALLY? Well, what would make you think that? Seriously, I'd like to know what factor would make you think people would say they would vote for Obama when they really wouldn't.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

It's called the Bradley Effect. Look it up and learn something.

by stefystef on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 10:18:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

I think you should as well. Studies have shown that polls in 2006 and 2008 have shown very little impact, if any.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 08:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

Kerry was strong after the Convention too, stronger than Obama. And we know what happened.

I know many are working hard, but I just don't have a good feeling for November. I think many left-wing bloggers are as insulated as the right-wingers. Too much self-importance going on with both sides.

by stefystef on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 08:54:03 PM EST

Your subjective opinion is better (none / 0)

than polls? That's pretty darn laughable. The polls were rarely wrong this primary season, with the exception of New Hampshire, and one Zogby poll in California, one Survey USA poll in Missouri, and one PPP poll in Penn. They pretty much nailed all the winners during the primaries.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:11:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest (none / 0)

Kerry got a negligible bounce after the convention. Go fish.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:15:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wasn't it negative (none / 0)

rather than just negligible?

by Blazers Edge on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wasn't it negative (none / 0)

Might have been. I think that if they'd put on a better convention, he'd probably have won.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 09:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]