Dean Baker: NO BAILOUT!

Great stuff today from Dean Baker (emphasis added):

Why Bail? The Banks Have a Gun Pointed at Their Head and Are Threatening to Pull the Trigger
By Dean Baker - September 29, 2008, 6:09AM

. . . I've heard lots of phony stories. Much of the country's political and economic leadership has been running around raising the prospect of the Great Depression and a breakdown in the banking system (I actually had taken the latter seriously). These stories are absolutely not true.

There is no plausible scenario under which the no bailout scenario gives us a Great Depression. There is a more plausible scenario (but highly unlikely) that the bailout will give us a Great Depression. There is no way that the failure to do a bailout will lead to more than a very brief failure of the financial system. We will not lose our modern system of payments.

At this point I cannot identify a single good reason to do the bailout.

The basic argument for the bailout is that the banks are filled with so much bad debt that the banks can't trust each other to repay loans. This creates a situation in which the system of payments breaks down. . . .

That is a very frightening scenario, but this is not where things end. The Federal Reserve Board would surely step in and take over the major money center banks so that the system of payments would begin functioning again. The Fed was prepared to take over the major banks back in the 80s when bad debt to developing countries threatened to make them insolvent. It is inconceivable that it has not made similar preparations in the current crisis. . . .

There has been a mountain of scare stories and misinformation circulated to push the bailout. Yes, banks have tightened credit. Yes, we are in a recession. But the problem is not a freeze up of the banking system. The problem is the collapse of an $8 trillion housing bubble. . . .

Given the loss of housing equity, I have actually been surprised that the downturn has not been sharper. Homeowners had been consuming based on their home equity. Much of that equity has now disappeared with the collapse of the bubble. . . .

This is the story of the downturn and of course the bailout does almost nothing to counter this drop in demand. At best, it will make capital available to some marginal lenders who would not otherwise receive loans. . . .

For the record, the restrictions on executive pay and the commitment to give the taxpayers equity in banks in exchange for buying bad assets are jokes. These provisions are sops to provide cover. They are not written in ways to be binding. (And Congress knows how to write binding rules.) [TELL 'EM Dean-o! - fairleft]

Finally, the bailout absolutely can make things worse. . . .

. . . We are going to be in a serious recession because of the collapse of the housing bubble. We will need effective stimulus measures to boost the economy and keep the recession from getting worse.

However, the $700 billion outlay on the bailout is likely to be used as an argument against effective stimulus. We have already seen voices like the Washington Post and the Wall Street funded Peterson Foundation arguing that the government will have to make serious cutbacks because of the bailout.

While their argument is wrong, these are powerful voices in national debates. [And you know how Prez Obama would listen faithfully to those inside-the-beltway folks - fairleft] If the bailout proves to be an obstacle to effective stimulus in future months and years, then the bailout could lead to exactly the sort of prolonged economic downturn that its proponents claim it is intended to prevent. . . .

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/200 8/09/29/why_bail/#comments

I'm sold, I agree. I say we ignore the Wall Street cry babies and use our electric prod for stimulating the real economy, to get it out of the recession we are entering. Will a Red-Brown coalition form in Congress to carry out the real will of the people, or will we be stampeded by the Bush, Paulson and the Wall Street DemoPublicans?

Baker adds on here:

. . . It looks like I'm about to get majorities of both chambers [of Congress] to endorse my book, The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer (free download available) [see below for link - fairleft]. There is no other way to describe Henry Paulson's $700bn bail-out deal.

The point of my book is that the battle between progressives and conservatives is not about a policy of government intervention as opposed to free market policies. Rather, it is a battle between those who want to use the government to benefit the middle and bottom of the income distribution and those who want to use the power of government to redistribute income upward.

The bail-out is a big victory for those who want to redistribute income upward. It takes money from school teachers and cab drivers and gives it to incredibly rich Wall Street bankers. These bankers have in turn distinguished themselves by their incompetence, having driven their banks into the ground.

This upward redistribution was done under the cover of crisis, just like the war in Iraq. But there is no serious crisis story. Yes the economy is in a recession that is getting worse, but the bail-out will not get us out of the recession, or even be much help in alleviating it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/ cifamerica/2008/sep/29/us.economy.wall.s treet

The link to his book is here:

http://www.conservativenannystate.org/



Display:


Re: Dean Baker: NO BAILOUT! (2.00 / 2)

Tips for Dean Baker. The stock market crash of 1987, the Savings & Loans disaster of the 1980s, and the dot com crash of 1999 did not cause the US economy to fall in recession. Yes, we are in a recession, but Baker is right that the Housing crash is the cause and not the current financial crisis.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:24:36 PM EST

I say no to the bailout (2.00 / 1)

I'm pretty much debt free so it's easy for me to be against the bailout. That being said, unfortunately, I have plenty of friends and family members with lots of debt. The fear factor plays on people that are having a hard time making ends meet.


by soyousay on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:05:16 PM EST

Re: I say no to the bailout (2.00 / 1)

The bailout is meaningless to friends and etc. with debt. The bailout does nothing for them except waste $1,000,000,000,000 or so of their tax dollars.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:30:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Playing the fear card. (none / 0)

I agree, but congress has been playing the fear card saying that money/loans won't be available if the bailout doesn't go through. Therefore, those in need of money will be supportive of the bill.


by soyousay on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:59:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Playing the fear card. (2.00 / 1)

As Baker says, that's nonsense. That would mean banks deliberately choosing to stop making money in their primary business, lending.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 03:05:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stocks in Free Fall! (none / 0)

Unbelievable, stocks have suddenly crashed as the House started to vote on the bailout package. I wonder if it'll recover if they reject the package. Was down over 600 points a minute ago, but now has shaved its losses to 517 points.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:52:27 PM EST

Re: Stocks in Free Fall! (none / 0)

The stock market needs to go down to a sustainable, rational level, based on the pathetic real values of exotic derivative investment instruments and mortgages.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HOUSE REJECTS BAILOUT! (none / 0)

Unbelievable, I thought that the measure would pass. Stocks seem to have stablized.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:01:00 PM EST

Re: HOUSE REJECTS BAILOUT! (none / 0)

Nice and stable at that. 500 down! Like the old joke, "How's the patient today?' Answer: "still dead."


by Mayor McCheese on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dean Baker: NO BAILOUT! (none / 0)

One has to wonder how much, if at all, Mr. Baker has in the stock market, either through direct ownership, a 401K or an IRA.


by Mayor McCheese on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:24:18 PM EST

Re: Dean Baker: NO BAILOUT! (none / 0)

I bet he's invested in intl markets and in gold?

The stock market is not the economy though. Financial stocks are the worst in the 'overvalued' category, and it's simply a fact of life that they must go and stay down in value.

What we need to be doing is goosing the economy, the real not Wall Street economy.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dean Baker: NO BAILOUT! (none / 0)

You bet but don't know. Either way, this is about much more than the stock market. Good old fashioned banking is in trouble. This could be a disaster for all, not just wall street fat cats. How well do you suppose "main street" is going to do if there's  shortage of capital?


by Mayor McCheese on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A shortage of capital based on a recession? (none / 0)

Or a shortage of capital based on banks suddenly and irrationally refusing to lend money?

Banks that have such toxic assets that they'll fail should fail. The banks that take their place will lend, because banks can't make money otherwise.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 03:08:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A shortage of capital based on a recession? (none / 0)

Where will this money come from if the entire financial and banking system collaspses? And even if these magical new banks decide to lend money, who will they be lending it to and at what interest rate?


by Mayor McCheese on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 03:12:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You think $700 Billion will prevent collapse (none / 0)

of entire banking and financial system? No, it won't, so if that's gonna happen we might as well be ready with the investment in making the real economy get off the ground. As a nation we can't have a couple trillion dollars deficit next year.

I don't believe the entire banking system is about to collapse. That's sky is falling stuff to rush Congress into a gigantic unprecedented giveaway to fatcats. The viable banks will survive and take over the non-viable ones, and if in a worst case scenario the govt would take over failed banks and recapitalize them and loan money.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 03:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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