Tracking Poll Update

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4742
Gallup5042
Rasmussen Reports5044
Research 2000/dKos5043
Average:49.2542.75

In one day, or I should say, by adding Saturday to the rolling average (which was the first full day since Friday's debate) and dropping Wednesday off, Barack Obama was able to add 1 full point to his average in the 4 polls. He is now at 50% in three of the trackers and his leads in Rasmussen and Gallup match the largest leads he's ever had in their polls.

From Rasmussen, which has consistently been the most favorable to McCain:

This six-point advantage matches Obama's biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for two-days running

In addition, while Obama's lead in the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll is one point shy of his largest lead of 8 points, his lead in Saturday polling reached 9 points, so no doubt we'll see some further upward mobility for Obama in that poll, and likely others. Remember, these numbers reflect a 3-day rolling average where approximately 1/3 of the polling would have been done post-debate. The reaction to Obama's debate performance will no doubt continue to drive these numbers up and if McCain's dour performance on This Week is any indication, the McCain campaign is ill-equipped to reverse this trend.



Display:


Hey Singer, perhaps we should add (none / 0)

a link to the PA daily tracking poll as well; I cannot find a link to it at the moment but it's appearing more and more likely that McCain's hopes hinge on winning Pennsylvania because winning even both Wisconsin and New Hampshire wouldn't be enough given that Obama will likely prevail in Virginia and Colorado.

PA seems to be the one state acting oddly when compared to Obama's popular vote lead because you would expect his lead in PA to be even larger than his national lead as they were for the last five dem nominees.


by Blazers Edge on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 03:46:06 PM EST

Here's a funny question to ask (none / 0)

for those in the Warner fan club (where's lori these days?): how small is the percentage of Obama/Gilmore ticket splitter voters in VA?


by Blazers Edge on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 03:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey Singer, perhaps we should add (none / 0)

For McCain to win PA, he'll have to pour all of his chips in it (and since we're learning what a big gambler he is, he might). This means he's either secured a lot of difficult territory or he's lost so much ground that PA is his only nope. My bet is on the latter.


by RandyMI on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:10:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

His only nope? (none / 0)

I disagree.  

Considering his polling right now, his nopes are the entire Northeast, Mid Atlantic, Upper Midwest, a good portion of the Rust Belt, the southern Rockies and Pacific basin (except for Alaska).


by Khun David on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:14:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Big-time oops (2.00 / 1)

I meant hope.


by RandyMI on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 09:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey Singer, perhaps we should add (none / 0)

The margin was slim when the Dems won the state in the past, and this has not always been a blue state. Remember that Obama only won 3 counties in PA in the primaries, and got creamed in the rest of them.


by Scotch on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey Singer, perhaps we should add (2.00 / 1)

And he lost CA and NY and MA too!


Change has come to America.
by the mystical vortexes of sedona on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 1)

This is great news for John McCain!


by kitebro on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:02:58 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 2)

YOU FORGOT BATTLEGROUND, THE ONLY VALID POLL THERE IS!


by Zephyr on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:25:25 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update (none / 0)

So it is now clear who won the debate, all the polls  suggest Obama won by a good margin. even the media spin is a slight Obama win (after saying it was  a tie in the first half hour after the debate) and lots criticisms for the condescending tone and body language of Macsame.


by YourConcernsAreNoted on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:28:28 PM EST

They actually said tie to slight McCain edge (2.00 / 0)

And then the people were like: not so much.

You know they will try harder to spin the next one.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:38:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great shot kid! Now don't get cocky... (2.00 / 2)

The more Obama pulls ahead, the more a desperate McCain campaign will seek attention through his "maverickitude", and the more a desperate MSM will try to make this a horse race. Obama must be increasingly careful.

Also, now is the time for all of us to canvass and phone bank with the wind in our sails.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:40:47 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 4)

Where is Jerome?  Is it more or is his posting nearly non existent especially compared to 04 and 06?


by Bobby Obama on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 04:54:48 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 4)

He usually only posts when he has a "Concern" about Obama to voice.

Oh and there is his posts cherry picking polls to fit his narrative.


by YourConcernsAreNoted on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 05:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update (none / 0)

Haha, I just commented the same thing below, didn't notice this conversation. It seems that way to me too.


by MNPundit on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 05:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 1)

I notice Jerome doesn't tend to post much when news is favorable to Obama. Anyone else noticed this or am I just being biased?


by MNPundit on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 05:23:10 PM EST

Looks like Jerome was right... (none / 0)

DKOS/Research2000 leans towards Obama by 3 points or so.  This would mean that gallup (O-50 M-42) and other lefty polls like Rasmussen (O-50 M-44) point to our Dkos/R2k poll which should be (O-53 M-40).. but I guess it isn't..

new math.. gotta love it don't ya Jerome.


by Why Not on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 05:38:41 PM EST

Re: Looks like Jerome was right... (2.00 / 1)

Scott Rasmussen?  That's guy is practically a communist! ;-)


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 05:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

7-point average lead (2.00 / 1)

Looks like a start!


by Beomoose on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 06:22:45 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 2)

The fundamentals of McCain's campaign are strong.


by rfahey22 on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 07:14:19 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update (2.00 / 1)

It certainly is starting to make his decision to go with public financing seem wise.


by Shaun Appleby on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 07:54:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update (none / 0)

Elaborate Shaun. Did he really have any other options?


by nzubechukwu on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:15:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update (none / 0)

No, perhaps not, and he and the RNC have bent the rules to the breaking point but if he hadn't his fund-raising performance would be another point of comparison to Obama's campaign and I'm guessing, given Obama's $66M haul recently, it would be an uncomfortable one, and yet another potential barometer of failure at times like these.

Hillary's campaign was dogged for months by a narrative of doom in respect of her fund-raising performance and 'cash-on-hand.'  I haven't heard much about such issues since in spite of Obama's impressive figures, that's all.  

I recall for months of the pre-Iowa primary it was the only metric we had besides polls and Obama's impressive early performance was important to lending credibility to his campaign during the long, dog-days of summer a year ago.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:39:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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