On Connecting

Much has been made of John McCain's refusal to look Barack Obama in the eye during the debate, and I do think it's a really important point, but Obama wasn't the only one whose gaze Senator McCain averted.

Several times during the debate, particularly in the opening section on the economy, Barack Obama looked directly into the camera and literally addressed the people watching at home, saying, essentially, in his own Barack way, "I feel your pain." I don't recall one time when John McCain did the same.

Here are just 6 such moments:

Although we've heard a lot about Wall St., those of you on Main St., I think, have been struggling for a while and...you're wondering how's it going to affect me? How's it going to affect my job, how's it going to affect my house, how's it going to affect my retirement savings or my ability to send my children to college?

I think that the fundamentals of the economy have to be measured by whether or not the middle class is getting a fair shake. That's why I'm running for president.

There are folks out there who've been struggling before this crisis took place.

Unless we are holding ourselves accountable day in and day out, not just when there's a crisis for folks who have power and can hire lobbyists, but for the nurse, the teacher, the police officer who, frankly, at the end of each month, they've got a little financial crisis going on, they're having to take out extra debt just to make their mortgage payments.

We've got to grow the economy from the bottom up. What I've called for is a tax cut for 95% of working families. 95%. That means that the ordinary American out there who's collecting a paycheck every day, they've got a little extra money to be able to buy a computer for their kid, to fill up on this gas that is killing them and over time, that I think is going to be a better recipe for economic growth than the policies of President Bush that John McCain wants to follow.

But the fact is that eliminating earmarks alone is not a recipe for how we're going to get the middle class back on track. And when you look at your tax policies that are directed primarily at those who are doing well, and you are neglecting people who are really struggling right now I think that is a continuation of the last eight years and we can't afford another four.

As I watched the MSNBC wrap-up of the debate, though, I was pretty stunned to see that self-styled populists Chris Matthews and Howard Fineman had convinced themselves that Barack Obama had actually missed the opportunity to connect with the average voter on economic issues. What debate were they watching? Those regular folks watching the debate seemed to get the message loud and clear.

During the Fox News post-debate focus group, the first two undecideds-turned-Obama supporters that Frank Luntz spoke with said they switched to Obama because "...he cared about the average person" and "He seemed to care about everyone in America."

Likewise, looking at the internals of CNN's post-debate poll where 51% said Obama won and 38% said McCain won, we find this nugget (via TPM):

Was more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you:

Obama 62%
McCain 32%

Nate Silver elaborates:

This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase "middle class" (Obama did so three times). And Obama's eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi...

And finally, check out the internals of the post-debate poll conducted by Democracy Corps of a mostly Republican crowd of undecided voters (this group voted for Bush over Kerry 2 to 1.) Here, we see that of all the qualities they polled, the only one that switched from McCain up before the debate to Obama up after the debate was the question of which candidate is "On your side."

Pre-debate %Post-debate %
Total Obama2438
Total McCain2629

An eleven point swing in an hour and a half. Not bad.

It's clear that Obama went into the debate with the strategy of speaking to the people at home, both literally -- looking directly into the camera, and rhetorically -- his repeated use of the words "you" and "struggling" and the phrase "middle class." It's also clear that it worked and Barack couldn't have had a more willing accomplice than John McCain whose obvious disdain for both Barack and the audience at home made for such a stark contrast. I think it's particularly telling that the media seemed to miss it completely, perhaps because, as Silver also notes, McCain's performance was largely directed at them.



Display:


Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 2)

Well that's good news.

The whole "he needs to connect more" is the media's narrative - they'll never give it up.  That and "he needs more specifics".


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 06:41:56 AM EST

Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 1)

"He needs more specifics"

But, we don't want to hear about policy...


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:54:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 1)

I actually thought Obama kind of fumbled on the economic stuff, and then crushed McCain on Iraq.
He definitely connected more with the audience because when making points, he talked straight to the camera (and the audience) and talked about us, whereas McCain only talked about himself and his past.
And he called Kim Jong Il "dear leader". That cracked me up.
I thought that Obama did better but that general opinion would come out on the side of McCain, but I'm glad to see I was wrong!
"Who are you for? That is the wrong question. It should be who is for you?" HRC
by skohayes on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 08:01:22 AM EST

One other thing that may have contributed. (2.00 / 1)

Some of the pundits remarked that McCain did well early on during the domestic issues part of the debate by hammering and hammering about cutting expenses, especially earmarks.

And I couldn't help thinking, how fucking penny wise, pound foolish, when all we have heard for the past week is about bailing out Wall Street to the tune of 700 billion dollars.  And I'm supposed to believe that some stupid earmark having to do with bear DNA is that important right now?  

The Republicans only have a couple of tools in their arsenals, and they use them ad nauseum: cutting taxes and (they say) cutting expenses.  And McCain didn't offer them up in a new and more appetizing way at all.  It DID sound disconnected from the issue of the Wall Street meltdown, as if he was still in the past.

One other thing: McCain spent an awful lot of time talking about himself, and how he's such a maverick, and how he disagreed with Bush on this or that.  And although it is important to make that distinction, when that was combined with his boasting about all his experience, it felt as if he was talking and boasting about himself too much, especially with regards to issues of the past.

One of the Undecideds in Luntz's focus group on Fox described it by saying that McCain was being sentimental.  When asked to elaborate, she said that McCain spoke too much about himself and the past and she wanted to hear about things that related to her and her life.  I felt the same way.

And, yeah, McCain did seem defensive and prickly.  He didn't come across nearly as well as he did during a recent interview with Katic Couric (or 60 minutes) that left me very impressed.  He is capable of connecting and being extremely sincere, moreso even than Obama.  But during the debate, he couldn't do that.


by Dumbo on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 08:38:41 AM EST

Chris Matthews will NEVER SAY (2.00 / 3)

that Obama has connected with voters because he is expecting Obama to be like Bill Clinton but Obama will never be like Bill Clinton.  That isn't who he is.

Obama connects on a different level.


by puma on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:21:56 AM EST

this is a strong post (2.00 / 2)

It would be interesting to know the demographics of the remaining undecided/uncommitted voters.

Obama is unlikely to be able to connect with voters at the visceral, "I feel you pain" level that Bill Clinton was able to do so masterfully (the best I've ever seen) for many reasons.  But he can do it better than McCain for the reasons you've noted - and not just at this debate.  

The Obama campaign has been somewhat successful in the out of touch/"he doesn't get it" framing of McCain.  But maybe Obama needs a "I feel your pain"-like catch phrase that would stick in people's minds to close the deal.  Empathy is a defining characteristic of Obama as a politician.  

All you Buddhist's out there, can you give us a hand?    


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:40:06 AM EST

SurveyUSA polling (none / 0)

says that Obama won barely among indies in California but that McCain won barely among indies in my home state of Washington.

Hopefully, they polled Virginians, Ohioans, and others from swing states as well.  I suppose an inference can be drawn from these two polls that if McCain held his own among indies in California and Washington, then he probably won them in more purple states.  We'll see because these numbers seemingly contradict the focus groups by Luntz in Nevada and Ohio.


by Blazers Edge on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:41:35 AM EST

Correction (2.00 / 1)

McCain "won" quite handily among Washington state indies (43-34) while Obama won among California indies (43-37) according to SurveyUSA.

However, Obama won on the question as to who appeared more presidential among indies in both states (won barely in Washington and handily in California).


by Blazers Edge on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:44:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Correction (none / 0)

Hi Blaze...

Did they ask it that made up the mind of the independents here in WA?

My take is, if you were expecting little from McCain, or had a set opinion, he did better then you thought.

Same with Obama.

I'm not surprised McCain did better here with independents in scoring, while Obama did better in red states.

Each surpassed expectations.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting theory (none / 0)

regarding McCain scored points in blue states while Obama scored points in red states.  So perhaps they tied in swing states?

My initial take-away was that Obama got the better of McCain last night but the polling seems mixed at this point.  LordMike cites to a PA focus group of 14 alleged undecided voters in Lehigh County, which had 9 registered dems and 5 registered pubs, and more thought McCain "won" the debate than Obama.  DemocracyCorps shows the opposite result among Bush-leaning voters in Missouri.

If McCain is within 3-5 on Tuesday in the tracking polls, that's probably a boost he got from the debates.  If he's down 6-8, then probably nothing changed.  Down 8-10, Obama beat him pretty hadinly.


by Blazers Edge on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:08:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SurveyUSA polling (none / 0)

Ironically, it seems from other polling that Obama gained the most in hyper red states!

I guess he had the most room to grow there...  PA results weren't so great for us, either... I'm glad Luntz's Ohio group scored positively.. speaking to my parents there, they were impressed independents as well...


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:59:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Luntz was in NV (none / 0)

I'm not a big focus group guy but it was encouraging to see Luntz score it well.  I guess a sample size of 27 is not the same as 600 people.

CBS shows different results nationwide but we'll just have to see where Obama and McCain are on Tuesday in the tracking polls: McCain probably needs to be within three-five, rather than eight-ten, going into Palin's debate.

How many people does Kos and Ali from Research 2000 poll a night?  I saw that it was 300 or so last night, which is the same that Battleground and Hotline do daily rather than the 1000 each night by gallup and rasmussen.


by Blazers Edge on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:06:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Luntz was in NV (none / 0)

Here's some interesting thing from the Ramussen tracking this morning. First of all this is significant particularly because of the large Republican "house effect" of Rasmussen. The top line shows Obama leading McCain 50-44. But the crosstabs are even more telling. Here's the convinced line:

Certain 41-38.
Likely  7-5
Lean 2-1

Last Saturday it was:

Certain 40-39
Likely 6-6
Lean 2-2


by rblinne on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What PA polling result (none / 0)

are you talking about regarding the debate?  Or are you just talking about general election polling?


by Blazers Edge on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:15:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What PA polling result (none / 0)

Post debate polling... someone else had linked to it on another thread....  I can't find it right now...


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:29:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 4)

I think the best moment was when he was explaining that his vote "to cut off funding for the troops" was nothing of the sort.  

How many times has that issue tripped up Democratic candidates in the past?  It's the genesis of "I voted for the 87 billion before I voted against it", which begat flip-flopper, which made Kerry unelectable.  Instead, Obama was able to explain what that vote was, and how he could have argued that McCain had voted to cut off funding for the troops simply because he had voted against a similar bill that would have included a timetable.  It defused the argument, and by inference made McCain seem to be dishonest.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 09:52:52 AM EST

Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 3)

I just got off the phone with my parents. They sadi McCain was "sharper than expecred because he usally acts retarded most of the time". On the other side of the flip, she said that Obama was much better on foreign policy than she expected and felt much better now about the idea of him handling a foreign policy problem. That is what I think he needed most last night and I think he accomplished it.


by RandyMI on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:00:37 AM EST

Debate shows McCain is a Dick (2.00 / 1)

The debate convinced me that McCain would NOT be a third term for Bush. He would be a third term for Dick Cheney. McCain's refusal to look at Obama and attempts to belittle him shows me that his management style would be like a General, Emperor or Dick Cheney.  For McCain to win, he needed to use humor and show some personality, however all he did was show that he was a Dick.


by erlin on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 10:44:54 AM EST

Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 1)

I am Republican from Colorado. I am so Republican I was a caucus chair in Colorado. The McCain campaign is teh stupid by running the "I agree" ad. The events of this week and the debate have convinced me to not only vote for Obama but also against Marilyn Musgrave. (I only regret that I can vote against only one congressional Republican.) We are on the verge of a Great Depression and we need LEADERS who find common ground.

Here's my idea for a counter ad:

John McCain thinks saying that your political opponent is absolutely right is a sign that you are not ready to lead. Leadership is finding solutions and common ground. When facing the biggest financial crisis of our time, Barack Obama was working for a joint statement between the campaigns and also worked with an administration of which he is strongly critical. John McCain came in and according to negotiators "blew up" the deal. Who is the one not ready to lead?


by rblinne on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:28:02 AM EST

Re: Just out of curosity (none / 0)

I was one of the few who caucused for McCain because at the time he seemed the most sane, particularly about immigration and climate change. :-) Mitt Romney got the most votes and our delegate was a Ron Paul supporter. In Colorado the ballot was just a beauty contest and we could vote for whomever we wanted for the delegates.

As it stands there isn't a place for reasonable adults in the GOP. If Obama plays his cards right in addition to winning the presidency he could poach moderate Republicans like myself permanently, leaving the GOP as a rump.


by rblinne on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Connecting (none / 0)

Here's the thing, despite what the Obama-haters think, I truly believe that many people WANT to like Barack Obama, the fact is that Obama consistently is viewed as a nice guy, but some undecided were still wary of Obama.  Yes some of it is race, some of it class, some wonder is he "ready to lead" ya know the whole C-I-C thing.  McCain may have won the debate on points, but the voters aren't scoring them on points, it's all about perceptions to non-pol voters. And I would say that on the stylistic or "perception" front, Obama won hands down.  McCain just seemed too condescending and insulting towards Obama, not in a policy-oriented fasion, but on a personal level.  Seriously, McCain refused to even look at Obama.

People tend to like nice guys and with the majority of the country pissed about the economy, and pissed at the Bush Administration, it's not surprising to me that people want a change, and no matter how "maviericky" McCain may be, you just don't "see" change when you look at him.  He may not be perceived as the "typical" republican, but he is still the Republican, and while McCain's campaign tactics can guide the media narrative, it don't change the fact that a majority of the country want the Repubs out of power


by lamh3176 on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:29:56 AM EST

Re: On Connecting (none / 0)

I thought the the decisive fact of the debate was non verbal. The glaring, snarling McCain refusing eye contact, mumbling during Obamas turn has to be seen as threatening and lacking control.  I doubt that will play well with women voters. I want to see the breakdowns over the next few days to see if I'm right.


by moondancer on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:39:55 AM EST

Re: On Connecting (none / 0)

My girlfriend caught the McCain non eye contact thing, I missed it completely.

Her comment:

He doesn't believe his words, he won't look Obama in the face when he says them.

She does a lot of meetings, organization type of stuff.

She sees a lot of speakers at work.

This kind of stuff is really something she watches for.

Don't underestimate this.

McCain handlers are now drilling him to look people in the eye.

He will correct this for the next debate.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 11:47:21 AM EST

Re: On Connecting (none / 0)

As a veteran of a political campaign, I can say that candidates are coached to look at the camera and not at the interviewer or opposing candidate.

Lehr made it clear that he wanted the candidates to look each other in the eye. Obama adjusted and did look at McCain, but also looked at the camera when he had something important to say. McCain was unwilling to make the adjustment, and is now getting punished for his inflexibility.

Republicans are going to scratch their heads asking themselves how stupid this sounds, but Democrats had to go through this when Gore lost the debate because he sighed too much.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:38:28 PM EST

Re: On Connecting (2.00 / 1)

I think you're right.

That is when Obama started looking at him more.

Which could mean, Obama was more present, and McCain was so focused on getting his talking points in, he just ignored Leher.

Again, point for Obama.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Connecting (none / 0)

When are we going to stop listening to those MSM so-called pundits? They have absolutely no "connection" with "Main street." So, their opinions about who won a debate are essentially meaningless! Why is it that after nearly 50 years of these debates, they still do not understand basic truths about the TV medium? Don't they get it that these are not the same as some high school debate, where points are scored just on "content"? WashStateBlue has it right...demeanor, confidence, body language is everything! All those pundits need to watch again the Kennedy/Nixon debates from 1960. Guess who the pundits thought the winner? Guess who the "people" thought had won?

There's a reason that McCain and his people were trying to subvert these debates! McCain is not "cool" enough for this medium. Too much like Nixon, methinks (but much less intelligent). In 2000, Gore was also not a "cool" enough candidate, compared to Bush. Same with Kerry in 2004. I'm feeling quite confident, after this first debate, about Obama's chances!


by disgusted on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:46:14 PM EST

HORSE SHIT (none / 0)

According to MSNBC McCain muttered, "horse shit" twice toward Barack Obama last night.  WTF???

Classless like the cunt comment.


by nzubechukwu on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:55:32 PM EST

Re: HORSE SHIT (none / 0)

Now, they are thinking he said

"of course, of course" and it just sounded like Horseshit...

Not a big deal either way.

He looked cranky and manic.

No one is disputing that, and that is why Obama is winning in the reaction polls.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 04:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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