Much has been made of John McCain's refusal to look Barack Obama in the eye during the debate, and I do think it's a really important point, but Obama wasn't the only one whose gaze Senator McCain averted.
Several times during the debate, particularly in the opening section on the economy, Barack Obama looked directly into the camera and literally addressed the people watching at home, saying, essentially, in his own Barack way, "I feel your pain." I don't recall one time when John McCain did the same.
Here are just 6 such moments:
Although we've heard a lot about Wall St., those of you on Main St., I think, have been struggling for a while and...you're wondering how's it going to affect me? How's it going to affect my job, how's it going to affect my house, how's it going to affect my retirement savings or my ability to send my children to college?
I think that the fundamentals of the economy have to be measured by whether or not the middle class is getting a fair shake. That's why I'm running for president.
There are folks out there who've been struggling before this crisis took place.
Unless we are holding ourselves accountable day in and day out, not just when there's a crisis for folks who have power and can hire lobbyists, but for the nurse, the teacher, the police officer who, frankly, at the end of each month, they've got a little financial crisis going on, they're having to take out extra debt just to make their mortgage payments.
We've got to grow the economy from the bottom up. What I've called for is a tax cut for 95% of working families. 95%. That means that the ordinary American out there who's collecting a paycheck every day, they've got a little extra money to be able to buy a computer for their kid, to fill up on this gas that is killing them and over time, that I think is going to be a better recipe for economic growth than the policies of President Bush that John McCain wants to follow.
But the fact is that eliminating earmarks alone is not a recipe for how we're going to get the middle class back on track. And when you look at your tax policies that are directed primarily at those who are doing well, and you are neglecting people who are really struggling right now I think that is a continuation of the last eight years and we can't afford another four.
As I watched the MSNBC wrap-up of the debate, though, I was pretty stunned to see that self-styled populists Chris Matthews and Howard Fineman had convinced themselves that Barack Obama had actually missed the opportunity to connect with the average voter on economic issues. What debate were they watching? Those regular folks watching the debate seemed to get the message loud and clear.
During the Fox News post-debate focus group, the first two undecideds-turned-Obama supporters that Frank Luntz spoke with said they switched to Obama because "...he cared about the average person" and "He seemed to care about everyone in America."
Likewise, looking at the internals of CNN's post-debate poll where 51% said Obama won and 38% said McCain won, we find this nugget (via TPM):
Was more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you:Obama 62%
McCain 32%
Nate Silver elaborates:
This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase "middle class" (Obama did so three times). And Obama's eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi...
And finally, check out the internals of the post-debate poll conducted by Democracy Corps of a mostly Republican crowd of undecided voters (this group voted for Bush over Kerry 2 to 1.) Here, we see that of all the qualities they polled, the only one that switched from McCain up before the debate to Obama up after the debate was the question of which candidate is "On your side."
| Pre-debate % | Post-debate % | |
| Total Obama | 24 | 38 |
| Total McCain | 26 | 29 |
An eleven point swing in an hour and a half. Not bad.
It's clear that Obama went into the debate with the strategy of speaking to the people at home, both literally -- looking directly into the camera, and rhetorically -- his repeated use of the words "you" and "struggling" and the phrase "middle class." It's also clear that it worked and Barack couldn't have had a more willing accomplice than John McCain whose obvious disdain for both Barack and the audience at home made for such a stark contrast. I think it's particularly telling that the media seemed to miss it completely, perhaps because, as Silver also notes, McCain's performance was largely directed at them.
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