My first thought: Think 1980, Ronald Reagan getting a major bump just from standing next to Jimmy Carter. Think 2004, John Kerry getting a major bump during the fist debate standing next to George W. Bush. The question is whether the candidate newer to the scene can stand toe-to-toe with the candidate longer on the national scene, and clearly on this front Barack Obama was able to speak as forcefully as John McCain. In this regard, Obama passed the most important test of the night. And to reiterate a point I made earlier, John McCain sounded like a Senator while Obama looked like a President.
And to take a step back, remember this: It is McCain who is losing this race right now, trailing in the national polling and in the statewide polling, and thus is was McCain who needed a huge night. He didn't get it, even on his home territory, and thus it was a missed opportunity.
What did you think?
Update [2008-9-26 22:51:7 by Todd Beeton]:I wish I could say we had a clear win for Barack. The first half, I think Barack won on substance and won on points. Barack also hit back on McCain as he tried to diminish him. The second half, though, McCain roared back, both substantively and on style -- with some newfound energy, and Barack suddenly seemed to wither under the force. Now, Obama I think exceeded expectations as far as going toe to toe with McCain on foreign policy, so to that extent, he did himself some real good tonight. He came off not only as presidential -- i.e. someone who seems like a president, but he came off as a guy who can do the job.
There's a lot of talk on MSNBC about John McCain's demeanor. He came off as mean, condescending and a jerk, not looking at Barack once the whole night, while Barack came off as Mr. nice guy. This is generally the sort of thing people judge candidates on when they make their voting decisions, so the question is, will people judge McCain harshly for acting like a dick or will they see it as strength? Will they like Barack more or will they think he allowed McCain to roll over him?
Update [2008-9-26 22:53:21 by Todd Beeton]:MSNBC seems to think McCain won, CNN thinks it was a tie. Anyone know the results of the focus groups?
Update [2008-9-26 22:55:55 by Todd Beeton]:I agree with David Gergen: "I think John McCain needed a clear victory tonight and that eluded him. And this was supposed to be his strongest topic."
Update [2008-9-26 23:0:5 by Todd Beeton]:The CNN panel made a key point: Barack Obama criticized John McCain on policy. McCain on the other hand attacked Obama personally, calling him naive and not ready. When McCain did that, the Independents in their focus group were turned off.
Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:But it should be noted that when John McCain acted like a dick against Romney in the primary debates, he was punished with winning the nomination.
Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:Good to see Joe Biden is on message: "John McCain was on his strongest turf today and he lost and I think it's going to be fatal." Ha, and he's setting expectations for next week's VP debate. "I have great respect for what I hear and watch in some of the debating skills of Governor Palin. I think it's going to be a tough debate." Umm, it better not be.
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