Some reading for the sober over at Pollster.com: McCain Gains Not Limited to Red States, by Charles Franklin and 50 Days to Go and Obama Hits Back (Softly), by Steve Lombardo.
Candidate tracker: In the days since the conventions ended, Sept 5th, here's where the candidates have been the past 11 days:
Obama: VA (2), NH (2), CO (2), MI, PA Biden: PA (3), NH (2), OH, MI, MO McCain: FL (2), PA (2), CO, OH, VA, MO, NM, WI, MI, NH Palin: OH (2), CO (2), NV, PA, VA, MO, NM, WI, MIAnd here's one other tracker, of the days each spent in '04 red or blue states:
2004 Red Blue Obama 4 4 Biden 2 6 McCain 7 5 Palin 8 3Some thoughts.
Obama/Biden have been in 8 states, while McCain/Palin have been in 11.
Obama will be in NV tomorrow. McCain/Palin headed to MI, IA, WI, MN, over the next 4 days.
Obama has not been in Ohio at all since Sept 3rd, and not in Florida since August 19th. For Obama and 2008, Virginia and Colorado are the new OH and FL. Granted that this is a snapshot with things having trended strongly toward McCain recently but for the moment, Obama's path to victory has been narrowed to few obvious opportunities-- VA and CO. And if they've got to narrow it down, the choices do make good strategical sense.
The Republicans do not have the battleground infrastructure in VA like they do in FL and OH, as it's not been competitive in recent national elections. It's still going to be tough for Obama to win VA, but its looking better than the other takeaway possibilities outside the mountain region battlegrounds. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama moves his current GA and NC field resources even more into VA in the coming weeks (or maybe they have enough money without doing so).
Without VA, it's back to Obama holding the Kerry '04 states including PA & MI, while adding Iowa to his column, and taking any 2 of the 3 mountain battleground states. But with Palin on the ticket, I'm not as convinced that the states of NM, CO, and NV are as sound a bet as they were previously for Obama. Keeping the '04 blue states blue, while adding Iowa and Virginia (for 272 EV's), could be the path of least resistance for Obama.
Biden's a political choice in that he's expected to hold PA-- a bit of state insurance for Obama. I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden spend one-third of his time in PA from here till the day of the election. Obama/Biden are more concerned about Pennsylvania flipping than they are Michigan. That's because if we assume Obama holds the rest of the Kerry '04 states and adds in Iowa, there's still a winning map if Obama loses Michigan (take VA, CO, and either of NV or NM for 269 EV's), or Pennsylvania (take VA, CO, NV, NM for 270 EV's), but the latter is obviously tougher.
This is a gamble coming up for McCain/Palin, spending three days this coming week is the leaning blue states of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. They may look back on it as three days they could have spent in MI & PA, but if we start seeing Obama/Biden head to those states later on, it means the map is moving the wrong direction.
Overall, ending the second week since conventions, its a different landscape. McCain/Palin are looking much more expansive as a team, still having to shore up red states but also going deeper into the midwest blue states. Obama/Biden are more solo, with Biden mostly on defense in the midwest while Obama tries to blaze a blue trail in Virginia and keep the mountain region open.
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