John Kerry won NY in 2004 by 18 points. Al Gore won NY in 2000 by 25 percentage points. NY's 31 electoral votes should be a sure thing.
NY is solidly Democratic, with 5.5 million registered Democrats and 2.9 million registered Republicans. But, as stated in the polling synopsis, "New York's overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote."
Honestly, I'm not trying to be a concern troll. But seriously, what is happening here?!? I live in NYC and I do believe that Obama will carry NY State and its 31 electoral votes. But why is it so close, why is it tightening? There are still 13% undecideds, how does Obama hold them / keep them from swinging McCain?
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu _id=562&id=19322Siena New York Poll:
With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue
Obama's Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June
Obama Seen As Stronger Than McCain on 4 of 6 Issues;
Voters See McCain As Better Than Obama on 4 of 6 of AttributesSeven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama's five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign - economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America's position in the world, and education - likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate - compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership - New York's electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.
"Although New York has long been regarded as a `safe' state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York's overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote."
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