And this is just now in the dull dead of summer. Another consistent element is the 'undecideds'.

They are the ones who actually answer random calls to tell the pollster to stop bum rushing their decisions which they will make sometime after the convention or labor day.

The real useful stuff will come then but, for now, the consistency of trend lines will do.

Obama's energy plan is a surefire winner in Michigan.

or the "Moses" revenge.  ;)

Doesn't look like the Rove celebrity strategy is paying off for McShame.  

Our President is chosen by the electoral college, right?

I love the fact that Rasmussen has Obama winning the Bush states of Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, has the Bush states of NV, OH, and VA as "toss up," has Obama winning all of the Kerry states, yet wants us to believe that McCain and Obama are tied nationally.  I wonder which set of numbers the media will talk about?

Wonder how much of Pennsylvania is Hillary supporters coming back to the party after finding McCain unacceptable?

Remember when people thought he couldn't win the "big states" he lost in the primaries?  That theory appears to be going down the toilet.

This points more to the fact that Pollster has weak charts than it does to the reality on the ground.

The last three McCain PA polls are higher than the previous three, and the trendline is going down? In MI, the last two are higher than the trendline.

Just logged into to say thank you. You are one of the few reasons I come to this site in terms of real analysis. I dont expect people to always agree. But I do expect them to admit to obvious facts. Whether Obama can sustain this is uncertain. But the fact that he is doing so well certain belies any claims that he is the weakest GE candidate we've had in a decade.

I was just up in Central PA / Harrisburg-Lancaster-York-Gettysburg Media Market.... High Republican territory--Think the straight line of the notorious 'T' of PA....

McCain was runing ads at the pace of something 6-1 over Obama. If he can't move numbers (which I think he can't--you should have seen the Ron Paul signs in the primary) then he campaign is just buring a lot of money for nothing.

PA IMHO is long lost even with Ridge--(they were doing interviews about Electric Deregulation and how it was going to double your cost with Ridge as the 'source' of the Deregulation Legislation and Rendell as trying to solve it with 'new energy' like wind)

Anyway if Philadelphis puts out like it has even in last election 400000+ the state is Democratic... Philadelphia will easily put that out and more for Obama not to mention Democratics have now a 1 million Registration edge with is just growing day to day...

PA is going Democratic even though my vote will be in Maryland where I now live. McCain may just break even or lose Lancaster County which is a major Republican County. Watch the Central PA and Philadelphia numbers on election night if Philadelphia is over 400,000 the state is won. If two of the three counties around Philadelphia its all over (they report early) if McCain can't carry Lancaster County the state is lost. Any of these three 'indicators' will give the state to Obama. If all three of these indicators fall to Obama it will be a 55-60% win and litterly crush Republicans all over the state even in Republican territories.

The Primary was the Primary even though it went to Hillary it will go to Obama now... Those numbers are real and growing... McCain is just wasting money (Thank you John!)