GOP Registration Dropping, Democratic Increasing

Crossposted at DKOS and MyBO

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We are in the fourth year of an unprecedented change in political registration.  Never before has there been as sustained a pattern of decrease in one party's registration and increase in the other's.

Jennifer Steinhauer today in the New York Times discusses this significant trend.

For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among voters who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

Nevada and Iowa are now majority Democratic states, with more voters registered Blue than Red, along with several others.  In 29 states voters register by party affiliation, and during this period no state has switched from majority Blue to Red.

Our Friend and Republican Revolution Comandante Dick Armey says this does not bode well for the GOP and its planned Perpetual Motion Majority:

"Obviously, these are not good numbers for the party to be looking at. Democrats have always had extremely broad multifaceted registration programs."
 He attempts to brush it off, saying that some of these voters may be sick of the GOP but still don't want Obama.  While this may be true in some cases, those truly sick of the GOP enough to change their registration may be too queasy to vote for John McCain and presumptive cabinet member Dick Cheney.

Karl Rove may just be getting Perpetual Motion Sickness watching his plan for everlasting domination fade as he dodges his own legal Raven.

But as much as Mr. Rove may enjoy responsibility for the demise of his party, the rise of the Democrats is not entirely his doing.

... Democrats are also benefiting from demographic changes, including the rise in the number of younger voters and the urbanization of suburbs, which has resulted in a different political flavor there, voting and campaign experts said. The party has also been helped by a willingness to run more pragmatic candidates, who have helped make the party more appealing to a broader swath of the electorate.

I'd like to underline the part in bold (my emphasis added), and maybe put little dancing stars (and twinkle lights) around it.

This is a large part of the appeal of not only Senator Obama, but the shift in Democratic politics that is preceeding and surrounding his run for President.  I will speak for myself but I will echo what more than a handful of until-recently-not-Democratic-voters have said to me: I am here as a newly-registered Democrat for that reason at least as much as I am because of my disgust with the GOP.  If not for a very positive feeling about the Democrat candidate combining with a more general impression that this is not my father's Democratic Party, I would be voting Democrat but keeping my Indie registration.

This is not just a moment of rejoicing for Democrats, it is also a moment of contemplation about what is going right, and how incautious use of these gains could kill the Golden Goose In the Hand:

Among the 26 states with registration data, the percentage of those who have signed on with Democrats has risen in 15 states since 2004, and the percentage for Republicans has risen in six, according to state data. The number of registered Democrats fell in 11 states, compared with 20 states where Republican registration numbers fell.

In the 26 states and the District of Columbia where registration data were available, the total number of registered Democrats increased by 214,656, while the number of Republicans fell by 1,407,971.

That's right, more states are more Democratic and more states are less Republican.  Less states have lost Democratic voters and overall there are more than a million more Democratic registered voters than there were three years ago.  But Independent voter registration is up across the board, and 11 states actually had shrinking Democratic registration.

This, therefore, is a time for lifelong Democrats and party leaders to heed the words, which are a near-perfect reflection of my introduction speech at our Birthday House Party for Barack Obama last night:

"The party has also been helped by a willingness to run more pragmatic candidates, who have helped make the party more appealing to a broader swath of the electorate."

The country is tired of the GOP Karl "BabyFace Doc" DuRovier.  We are tired of extremism - from both sides - and we want incremental, pragmatic, results oriented politicians.  

Niether Ayn Rand nor Karl Marx need apply.



Display:


Tips for Mo' 'Crats! (2.00 / 5)


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:40:11 PM EST

Their brand is dying. (1.66 / 3)

As it should be.


by sricki on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:46:43 PM EST

Death to the Brand! (2.00 / 2)

Off with their heads!  Let the heads eat cake, then off with their heads' noses!


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Death to the Brand! (2.00 / 1)

Thanks Chris for posting this. It helps to counter all " the sky is falling" diaries.


by venician on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 04:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The sky may or may not be falling (none / 0)

but it's falling off the right with a vengence.

IMHO the GOP is still an Extremist party while the Democrats have stablized in the non-Engels center-left ever since Bill Clinton.

-chris


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 05:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"falling off *to* the right..." (none / 0)

typos just kill meaning, sometimes... (sigh)


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 05:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "falling off *to* the right..." (2.00 / 1)

s'OK I think it is a consequence of the modification of the Planck length here in the new non-Engle's space-time continuum. so expect a bumpy ride ;p


by zerosumgame on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 08:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "falling off *to* the right..." (none / 0)

s'OK I think it is a consequence of the modification of the Planck length here in the new non-Engle's space-time continuum. so expect a bumpy ride ;p

I gotta find a way to use that in a sig or something...

That's some thing like this, then:

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-chris "any humor involving Planck Lengths is OK with me" blask


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 09:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The sky may or may not be falling (2.00 / 1)

I agree, as far as I'm concerned we nee only to attack the brand and keep on attacking the brand.


by venician on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:11:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Registration Dropping, Democratic Increasi (2.00 / 1)

As I wander through various corners of the echo chamber of blogland I run into this half traumatized hand wringing over and over. There are few confidence zones, just individual confidence spots and I try to be one.

One particular commonplace is that few of the hand wringers show much of a grasp of the fundamentals, the stats and such. Items like unprecedented primary turn out, swelling registration, unusual enthusiasm nuances or the distortions of big gallupish polls versus the more useful state polls and so on.

The basis for their assertions that Obama will lose all seems to turn on mirror stuff from MSM pundits and exaggerated emphasis on symbolic nuance stuff along with reflexive assertions that our fellow citizens are imbeciles.

While this may be a self fulfilling backhand feel good exercise, it betrays little evidence of the digging I find necessary to get beyond the Media Fog to the point where the actual people are out there, frustrated and painfully eager to endorse anything that isn't GOP, hell an addled hamster will do.

And a final aside on these Gallups. They are comprised of constituents who still actually answer random calls whether on a land line or a cell.

Most people are so clobbered by telemarketers and other pests they don't answer the phone unless they know the caller.
 


by chris rich on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:49:10 PM EST

Re: GOP Registration Dropping, Democratic Increasi (none / 0)

BINGO!


by venician on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:15:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Registration Dropping, (none / 0)

this trend combined with the shift in voter attitudes, Repubs are going to have to start leaning more to the left with their agendas, otherwise they wont be a match against their democratic challengers.

the end of the modern day republican party? i wont hold my breath.


by alyssa chaos on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 08:36:15 PM EST


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