Pro-Biden

Well, the strategy worked. Kind of. I'm assuming.

Obama's decision to keep the VP decision to himself as long as he did was obviously a wise one, since this afternoon was a litany of "got the call that he would not be VP, according to Democratic sources" stories. Then, once Biden was (allegedly) contacted, we knew. Actually, we basically knew when the Secret Service showed up. That was kind of a biggie.

For all the showmanship, the only error may have been not releasing the text message at 7ish, for two reasons: to preserve the "you heard it first" narrative and to allow for all types of homemade Obama/Biden signs tomorrow. Que sera sera. The text is out now (apparently, I don't have a cell, but it's on the Obama '08 homepage).

But while trolls and McTrolls and both PUMAs and several genuinely disappointed Democrats mourn the passing of their favorite candidates nascent VP bid, I thought I'd give ten reasons why I'm not displeased with Obama/Biden.

10. Excitement. Obama's master of the oratory, but his speeches are flowing. He's good on the attack, specifically this week with the houses gaffe. However, I still couldn't shake the feeling that his speech in that clip at the rally with Kaine was almost too smooth. It's a gut-level thing. While smooth is fine if you like the guy, it can come off as cocky, arrogant, elitist. Biden, on the other hand, gives you someone who can punch very quickly and very effectively with unmitigated passion. "Verb, noun, 9/11" That's a gut punch. It's quick, it's on target, it knocks the wind out of you. Keeping to metaphor, now we've got the martial artist Obama with the pugilist Biden. The former can fight with grace, the latter can fight with grit; the combination should be powerful. Plus there'll be the media watching for any potential gaffes, which will give this a little bit more of a "white-knuckle" feel to it.

9. Experience. Obama's an ideas man. He was chosen by the party on the basis of hope, change and outsider vision. Achieving that vision will take contacts and someone who will be automatically respected in the halls of the Senate. Choosing Biden gives him someone on the floor who knows the people and (just as importantly) knows where the bodies are buried. Seriously. He was elected when he was 30. He's 65 now.

8. Safety. Biden was not an exciting pick from a "surprise" standpoint to anyone who knows the process. Moreover, on pretty much every list I saw, he was somewhere between 1 and 4. He wasn't my personal number one (Clark), but he was top three. If you can corral his mouth ("if you've got an off-the-cuff quip, run it by us first"), you should be able to keep his foot out of there. But, from a vetting perspective, there won't be anyone jumping down the aisle claiming he's unqualified.

7. Law. While most tout his foreign policy credentials, it should also be noted he was chairman of the Judiciary from '87-'95 (and ranking minority member from '81-'87). He's had his hand in a wide range of important, fundamental legislation. The Biden Crime Law that led to thousands of new police officers. The Violence Against Women Act. There's probably a long list somewhere of all the important bills he's sponsored or written, but it's 3AM and I'm not ready to be President because I'm too tired to look it up.

6. Blue Seat. While Bayh would've been OK, I would've been ticked at the loss of a blue seat. Mitch Daniels (R-Gov-IN) wouldn't have appointed a (D) to replace him. On the other hand, Biden's won his seat with 50%, 58%, 60%, 63%, 60% and 58%. I'm not sure how re-election would be handled, but if he decides to stay in the race there and simply remove himself afterwards, you've still got a Democratic governor appointing the replacement.

5. No Politics. This isn't about a state. Will Joe Biden increase the margin of victory in Delaware from 9 to double digits? Probably. But listing the states that he could have effects on are all on policy connections to those voters, not birthright. That's a huge distinction.

4. Vice Presidency. Joe Biden joked that, in the primary, he was running for Vice President. But there is some truth to that. He got his name out, got attention, got into the VP running. He's one of the people who would make a good President, but lacks in the qualities of a Presidential candidate. A VP candidacy, however, is significantly different. See Republican. Mock and destroy Republican. No worries about negativity or how your brashness polls.

3. Narrative. Currently: John McCain is ridiculously out of touch. That's bouncing around this weekend. Now? Throw on top of that all the fluff pieces about Biden. Tragic accident. Persuaded to stay in the Senate. Sworn in at his children's hospital bedside. The hour and a half commute every single  day so he could be with his family. That's a strong counter-story to McCain's many houses (and how you can only get around Arizona by small plane) and just generally a testament to character. Add into that the son headed to Iraq (which, to be honest, is probably a stronger card than even "P.O.W.", even if it may never be played). That adds to the populist narrative the Obama campaign wants.

2. Foreign policy Tons have been written, let me quote TPM regarding Biden:

On the other hand, wholly separate from the cosmetics and electioneering calculus, I think he'd be a good choice. On substance, maybe a really good choice. Most senators grasp of foreign policy is fairly thin -- and it tends to be heavily influenced by whatever lobbyists or power players are in their orbit. But Biden has a pretty deep knowledge of pretty much every big foreign policy question. And his ideas and judgment strike me as fundamentally sane.
Back in 2004, when I was writing a piece for The Atlantic about John Kerry, I did long interview with Biden in his office on Capitol Hill. And I remember coming away thinking, this is the guy you'd want to have making big decisions on the key foreign policy questions. To the extent that we think Obama needs someone with deep foreign policy knowledge in a constitutional office (i.e., non-fireable) to add ballast to his foreign policy vision I'm not sure I could think of a much better person.
Since we're top two, let me add in one additional comment: if McCain tries to play the "he's so weak on foreign policy he chose a foreign policy VP", I hope Obama (or Biden) counter-punches effectively. It's not that hard. "I said the Iraq War wouldn't help. I was right. I said that we needed more troops in Afghanistan. McCain disagreed for months. Then he decided I was right. I said that we needed careful timetables in Iraq. McCain still disagrees, even though the president of Iraq and now even the Bush administration agree on timetables. McCain may have more "experience", but his experience is being wrong." Or something along those lines, but, you know, eloquent.

1. Hillary. I saved this point for last because it's the biggest and it's probably the most contentious here on MyDD. I'm from Massachusetts. I'm currently quite aware that legends don't live forever. Eventually, we will need a new standard bearer of Democrats to step up in the Senate to lead. I don't see Reid doing that. Obama's obviously occupied elsewhere. Biden, while he does have advantages 2, 3, 7, 8, 9 and 10 to his credit, also is a bit too volatile by himself to rely on. I could go down the list, but let's just say no one else in the Senate will even inspire as many as Hillary. No one else would be able to stand up for progressive, liberal, Democratic ideals as effectively. I've said I wouldn't mind if she was the VP, but let me draw this analogy:

Like I said, from Massachusetts, huge Red Sox fan. A couple of years ago we had an interesting dilemma. We had a great young pitcher named Jonathan Papelbon. Strong arm, great stuff. In 2005, he was called up and just looked fantastic. In 2006, our closer (Keith Foulke) didn't look like he'd be any good after an injury-plagued 2005. But we had young Papelbon. He came into the closer role and scared the bejeesus out of hitters with his glare. He went ridiculous stretches without giving up a run. His ERA was sub-1 (which is scary good). And, so, a debate raged. Do we make him a closer or a starter? Some said a starter is more important, so you don't waste a good arm as a closer. However, I was part of the opposite camp. You see, sometimes you need to know that, when the ninth inning comes around, you've got your ace in the hole and the game secured. Knowing Papelbon was in the pen for one (or two) innings to close it out can give your starting rotation that bit of adrenaline to get them through their last batter. It gives the fans something to root for and it gives everyone a bit more swagger.

Both answers are right. The current World Champion Red Sox did win the 2007 World Series with Papelbon closing, after all. They may or may not have won with him starting, but keeping that dominant reliever handy is always useful.

Clinton is much the same for me. Sure, you can call her up to VP. Everyone thinks it's more prestigious. But I'd really like to have a closer in the Senate. Let Obama lay out the plan, set it all up and have someone from the Senate there ready to pound it through.

Anyways, that's my personal top 10 for Biden. Sorry if it's rambling and uncited, but it's approaching four here now and I thought we should have at least one diary that wasn't focusing on how we're all doomed because the VP pick was bad. Because, to be honest...  I don't think it's bad. Maybe not transcendent, but certainly not bad.

Update [2008-8-23 16:30:51 by TCQuad]: Thanks for all the recs and discussion. I appreciate it! Great first speech by Biden, let's hope it's the start of a beautiful friendship:


Display:


Sleepy. Sorry for any typos that I missed. (2.00 / 2)

Well, the pick may not energize the Hillary base, but it did force me out of bed to get some thoughts out of my head.

Hopefully others who have been around this game longer can add to my list.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 04:27:24 AM EST

Re: Pro-Biden (2.00 / 2)

It's a good diary.  I particlarly like:

"Moreover, on pretty much every list I saw, he was somewhere between 1 and 4."

It's an incredibly reasonable pick: it's not going to piss anyone off except for "my way or the highway" people.  Everyone saw him as reasonable.

I've always thought his idea to partition Iraq was kind of nutty though.  I think on the merits, Obama may have a better grasp of foreign policy than Biden does.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 04:43:29 AM EST

Agreed about partitioning Iraq. (none / 0)

I completely forgot about that chestnut.  I'm sorry you reminded me, now.  It was one of the most foolish foreign policy ideas that I've heard a Democrat offer.  Don't ever put Biden in control of our foreign policy.  The man may have a great reputation and resume, but he's a twit.

Great strategic veep choice, though.


by Dumbo on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 05:29:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed about partitioning Iraq. (none / 0)

In an atmosphere of simplistic "we're here indefinitely until we 'win'" or "we need to leave Iraq yesterday" I think Biden's suggestions weren't THAT stupid.  I disagreed with his plans, but he was one of the few people offering ideas instead of empty either/or rhetoric that everyone knew would never come to pass.  And just for the record, I'm not a Biden fan.


And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.
by thatpurplestuff on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 05:36:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, I've been supportive of Biden as veep (none / 0)

for a long time, for purely strategic reasons.  But, God, that partitioning idea was bad.  The fact that he was throwing out there a VERY BAD idea that was NEW doesn't make me feel the slightest bit better.  The Neocons have had lots of NEW and BAD ideas of their own.

Partitioning would have required us to stay in Iraq indefinitely in a hostile situation, like a referee in a pro wrestling match where the wrestlers are beating each other up with folding chairs tossed to them by their "managers."  It's about as bad an idea as Kristol's idea to bomb Iran to teach them a lesson.  Worse, maybe, because partitioning entails an open-ended multi-year obligation that we would not be able to get out of, and nobody would appreciate the good intentions of it.  At least McCain's 100 years in Iraq idea had us out... after a hundred years.

I can't say enough how bad it was.  The fact it didn't receive more criticism only reflects the fact that few people took it seriously coming from a candidate with less than 1% in the polls.


by Dumbo on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 06:05:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, I've been supportive of Biden as veep (2.00 / 3)

Actually nobody was overly critical of that plan because it it simply was a very reasonable plan that didn't call for a partitioning of Iraq at all.

It called for the state of Iraq to consider a federation as the basic framework for it's political system. Most experts in the field will actually tell you that your horror scenario is is simply unrealistic and seemingly based in complete ignorance of the plan, the facts on the ground, and how a constitution framework influences politics and conflict resolution.

The only problem with the plan was that Biden used the word partitioning in an explanation and people without any background knowledge on the subject matter started to make wild assumptions without either knowing the actual contents of the plan or it's effects.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 09:31:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, I've been supportive of Biden as veep (2.00 / 1)

I completely (though respectfully) disagree.  First, he was the only candidate who offered a serious plan in Iraq.  I agree that it doesn't matter if it's a BAD plan, but there's something to be said for considering all options...something we've all certainly learned after the Bush years.

Second, I thought his plan was a good one.  It wasn't a partition in the "Israel's building a wall" sense.  More a pure (not US) federalism meant to prevent any one group from either (a)railroading through an agenda that was disproportionately harmful to one ethnic group...leading to greater violence or (b)blocking progress as a strong minority faction...leading to greater violence.  Considering that pre-invasion Kurdish areas had, already, largely been such an autonomous region (though without the same relationship to the central government or the oil revenue sharing), it was likely to be successful, fairly quickly, in one of the three primary federal regions (not sure if those regions were broken down further into smaller provinces, but the point remains).  


Torture me once, shame on you; torture me and get away with it, shame on us all.
by freedom78 on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 01:27:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed about partitioning Iraq. (none / 0)

Isn't it ironic that that is basically how it all shook out- Baghdad has been ethnically cleansed to the point that it's 90% Shiite, the Kurds remain in the north, while the Sunnis have moved south?


"Who are you for? That is the wrong question. It should be who is for you?" HRC
by skohayes on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 06:28:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed about partitioning Iraq. (none / 0)

That is a good point.  Maybe "speak the obvious" Biden was correct in saying what no-one wanted to hear?

Gotta ponder that one...


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 08:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pro-Biden (2.00 / 1)

It was a "nutty" idea, but it was also a fundamentally rational one. You've got three groups in three area, let's make three provinces of Iraq and take some of the cultural issues to a local level. Here's his exact quote:
...maintain a united Iraq by decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group ... room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests."

It was actually allowed by the Constitution of Iraq at the time. I think it would have solved some of the political and diplomatic problems, but would've aggravated some of the military ones.
by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree with your politics, but not your baseball (none / 0)

If you've got a good, durable pitcher, you want him out on the mound for as many innings as possible. Guys like Nate Silver have shown statistically that a good starter will bring your team more wins than a good closer 100% of the time.

That said, your analogy still works with minor adjustments. The VP is like a closer, not a starter: very prestigious, but seldom in the game. We need Clinton in the trenches, going out there and carrying the load for the Democrats for a seven inning quality start.

I may have taken this too far.


by Gimmeliberty on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 06:16:52 AM EST

Off topic from Sox fanatic (none / 0)

Yes, but the analysis by Silver assumes roughly equal  effectiveness in either position, thus his conclusion that by providing more quality innings, starting is the appropriate usage.  But any such analysis must be applied to particular cases.

First, with Papelbon it is not clear to me he would be more or less equally good as either starter or closer because his number of quality and plus pitches is limited and this would be exposed over 5-7 innings.  Also, both his splitter and fastball would lose some pace, and therefore effectiveness, if used as a starter.  I am aware that some believe he has a range of plus pitches but I am less confident.

Second, Silver's analysis applies only over the long haul, where the challenge is to accumulate across a staff a sufficient number of quality innings to make the post-season.  But as an elite team, the marginal increase in the odds of making the playoffs with Paps as starter vs. closer is minimal given the deep talent of the roster; they will make the playoffs at least 3 of 5 years anyway, as starter maybe he makes that 3.1 of 5 years.  But once in the playoffs, a dominate closer provides a tremendous boost, especially since the rotation is shortened and teams will ride their ace or the hot hand in 2/5 or 3/7 games in principle.

Third, it is not clear to me one way or the other whether or not closing or starting is better for the genetic flaw in Paps shoulder.  I have to assume the team concluded it was a wash or that the risk to the shoulder could be better managed with Paps as closer.  The Silver analysis you reference assumes a pitcher that accumulates ~200 innings as a starter, something I am not confident Paps could achieve or should attempt.

Finally, your source Silver believes Paps contributes more as a closer than he would as a starter:

"My recent chat featured nearly a dozen questions about my comment in the last edition of LDL that Jonathan Papelbon "absolutely should not be moved from the closer's role" for the foreseeable future. Let me try and boil this down into the simplest possible terms:

  1. We know that Papelbon is a great closer. In fact, he is having one of the five greatest seasons by a modern-day closer in baseball history.
  2. A great closer is as valuable as all but the very best starters, once we properly account for the effects of leverage. Papelbon's WXRL this year is 6.6, which is higher than that of any starter not named Johan Santana (6.7). (Note that we call this statistic SNLVAR for starters. But it measures the same thing--wins added above replacement--and is measured in essentially the same way.)
  3. It is not certain at all that Papelbon would be comparatively as effective if he moved to the starting rotation.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/articl e.php?articleid=5471

Please return to your regularly scheduled programming.


"We live entangled in webs of endless deceit, often self-deceit, but with a little honest effort, it is possible to extricate ourselves from them". -- NC
by Trond Jacobsen on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:07:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Off topic from Sox fanatic (none / 0)

Very nice. I hadn't read the Baseball Prospectus review before.

The one thing that you sort of brushed by (with regards to his effectiveness) would be that his pitches are mostly fastball and splitter. He'd really need to develop his change and his slider in order to move to the rotation. He just doesn't have the pitches to start right now.

Always good to inject some World Champion Boston Red Sox talk into any discussion.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:55:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pro-Biden (none / 0)

There's some good reasons to pick Biden, unfortunately they aren't great reasons and i really don't see where Obama is going with this pick.

I think Clark, Gore, Clinton, Sebelius and Reed would all of been a better choice.

The CW has been that Obama needs to pick an old white guy with foreign policy experience, but Obama has always said he feels foreign policy is a strength so why go with the narrative that he needs someone to back up his lack of experience.


by liberalj on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 06:58:43 AM EST

Biden is the Pro-Hillary pick. (none / 0)

I am not excited about him, and it seems Obama could have picked a better running mate for his message.  But he is one of the safest picks for both Obama and Clinton.  He isn't someone that would be a threat to Clinton in 4 or 8 years, unlike some of the more inspiring choices Obama could make.  If Sebelius or a comparable pick was chosen, even with a losing bid, they would be showcased on a national stage.  Potentially giving them a stronger position in the next Democratic nominating contest then Hillary.

It is impossible to know  all the variables that went into the decision, someone that looks good could be a bad choice for reasons that would never be publicized.   But I wonder if at the private meeting between Clinton and Obama a certain type of VP was requested.


Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. ~ Sun Tzu
by Tumult on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 07:39:10 AM EST

Re: Biden is the Pro-Hillary pick. (none / 0)

I raised the spectre of that meeting yesterday. I'm more curious than ever to find out what was discussed.

While I don't think it was "pick an old white dude", I wouldn't be shocked to find out the advice was "cover your flank", since Biden's probably the best guy for that.

I think waiting this long has allowed Obama to craft his own message, so VP wasn't going to do anything to that, especially with the last group. To be honest, once Sebelius was eliminated, you lost the only really message pick. The rest of the front runners would've been seen as one-note cover stories. Kaine delivers Virginia, Bayh delivers Indiana (maybe adds moderation?), Clark covers military affairs... It goes on like that.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:52:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pro-Biden (none / 0)

I preferred some of the other candidates for various reasons, but Biden seems like a pretty solid guy to me.  This ticket will be easy to get behind.

FWIW: Joe Scarborough is praising the Biden pick like crazy right now on MSNBC.  The entire crew there seems to absolutely love it.


by Will Graham on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 08:23:58 AM EST

Re: Pro-Biden (none / 0)

I said this in my Veep table diary:

He'll appeal to the policy wonks, who will talk about how much he brings to the ticket, which would be enough for the masses. A solid choice.

Not sure if I should call Scarborough a wonk, but it's the same idea. Get the brains behind you, they'll direct the conversation with the talking heads leading to praise of the pick.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:54:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pro-Biden (none / 0)

Being from the Mid-west I know little about the NE

Does Biden help solidify places like NH?  Or is their no effect?


by gil44 on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 09:39:53 AM EST

Re: Pro-Biden (none / 0)

Beyond policy connections, I don't believe so. I went to school in NH and we didn't have any particular affinity for Delaware. He doesn't receive extra coverage up their either.

However, from a policy and, to a lesser extent, personality viewpoint, it's possible he will.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:29:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Feels like the Repubs are setting the turf (2.00 / 1)

of this election...the Biden thing started in earnest when Russia invaded Georgia, and McCain appointed himself co-Secretary of State. So in an effort to shore up Barack's perceived lack of foreign policy credentials, we suddenly get the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as his running mate...this is a very reactive choice.

In the meantime, I hope someone in either party wakes up and remembers that we have the worst economy since the Great Depression, and a financial sector in meltdown. Against that backdrop, I would have loved to see something else today, something dramatic: declaration of a Marshall Plan to re-build the economy, with the introduction of a Bob Rubin, or someone from the private sector as the Vice Presidential nominee.

It would be nice to fight the battle on our turf--the economy--instead of yet another election in which we debate who is stronger on national defense, more patriotic,etc. This feels very much like the John--reporting for duty--Kerry convention of four years ago.

Bottom line--Repubs love to have these national elections based on fear of terror and national security, and we let them do it every cycle. We don't have to follow their lead; we can set our own priorities. We should set a different emphasis--perhaps, "it's the economy, stupid!" would be a good starting point. It will be harder to do with an Obama-Biden ticket.


by BJJ Fighter on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 10:48:27 AM EST

Re: Feels like the Repubs are setting the turf (2.00 / 1)

I'll agree to some extent. It does seem to signal the importance of foreign policy.

Some of that is pragmatism (Georgia invading threw off a lot of things) and some of that is just because the Republicans will try to frame debate and you don't want to get into a match where you concede your opponent's strong suit on the basis of experience. Covering that flank allows the message to move forward onto our turf. Not pushing harder onto other messages may have been Kerry's downfall.

One other thing: historically, there have been two characterizations of Democrats - weak and elite.

Let's suppose McCain has chosen Romney like it's been reported. There's no way the Republicans can portray Obama/Biden as somehow the rich, elitist types. If anything, it reverses the characterization. Rich Republicans are traditionally viewed very harshly by the mainstream, so you've turned a negative onto your opponent.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 11:07:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You make very good points, (2.00 / 2)

relative to us being portrayed as weak on defense. But I'd say the flip side of the coin is that the only time we win is when we offer up a plan to grow the economy. Obviously, the best example is Clinton in '92, but Kennedy followed his "Let's Get American Moving Again" campaign in 1960 with massive tax cuts to stimulate growth.
Even Carter's misery index (which bit him in the ass four years later), coupled with scorn of Jerry Ford's "WIN" buttons--all focused on the economy.

I think the McCain housing flap will disappoint people in it's ability to offer any traction. Polls over the years have showed that working class folks don't really resent people with wealth--I've heard it referred to as the "aspirational" factor. Only danger point for McCain is if it comes out that he and Mrs.McCain somehow stole anything, cheated on taxes, etc. Then he's got a major problem.

Romney comes off as arrogant and tone-deaf....and that too can be a situation where wealth becomes a negative. People may be aware a candidate has $$, they just don't want him to be snooty about it.

Trust me: we will never win a pissing match over foreign policy--so the answer is to change the playing field...to the economy. In the process, we can change the election back to being a referendum on Bush, rather than Obama.


by BJJ Fighter on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 11:23:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You make very good points, (2.00 / 2)

1992 was easy. You'll have to excuse me if I paint this in broad strokes, but I was 12 at the time. My recollection on it was that we had just thoroughly thrashed Saddam in the first Gulf War. So America felt smug, strong, powerful. It basically felt like we could crush countries if we were in a bad mood.

On the other hand, the economy stunk. Not Great Depression bad, but bad. So when the narrative came right down to it, "strong military" was just sort of assumed. "I'll make the military stronger" was like saying "I'll build a nuclear weapon so big it can blow up the Earth". Impressive, but unnecessary. As a result, an economic narrative was inevitable.

This year, however, it's different. You've got both issues running around. Our economy is bad and our military isn't strong. In fact, the military feels mortal. So now you'll have two narratives competing for airtime.

If Obama simply said "I'm the economic candidate", McCain would simply say "I'm the security candidate" and you'd have to hope that you didn't have another Georgia or gas price drop right around the elections. By covering that foreign policy flank with gravitas (the word of the day for Biden), you've done two things:
-You've given yourself cover on your weak side to give yourself a means by which to extend yourself to your strengths
-You didn't put in someone who covers your perceived foreign policy weakness with a force or military shield, allowing you to maintain your narrative of strong diplomacy and "no dumb wars".

Now, you don't have to worry as much about an October surprise.

I will disagree a little bit on McCain's housing flap: it's not that people will hate him because he's rich. It's not even that people will view him as out of touch three months from now. It's painting him as insincere and a generic politician (specifically, a generic Republican). Listen to every single one of his ads. All of them say "we". "We know how tough it is." "Obama wants to raise taxes on us."

If you can put him out of the "us" category, his play seems condescending and transparent. That's a huge smash right through his "maverick" shield.

Couple that with Romney's "snootiness", you've lost the elitist card to play against Democrats, which is a perennial  favorite.

I do agree that the playing field needs to be shifted from a strictly foreign policy/Iraq/terrorism/civil liberties front (as much as it pains me to say it). Get on the economic high horse and ride it to the finish. Biden just ensures that some economic good news before the election doesn't immediately kill Obama's campaign for lack of any other expertise.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 12:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You make very good points, (2.00 / 1)

OK.....at the risk of turning this into ping-pong....I want to throw out one more thought, which actually came up when HRC ran her 3 AM ad in Texas. Someone in PA suggested she run a similar ad on the economy, to which the response was, "the President never gets a call at 3 AM relative to the economy!"  

I thought this was strange, coming only 3 weeks or so after the Bear Stearns collapse. Bottom line, in an age of economic globalization, the middle-of-the-night crises can be either some kind of military confrontation, or a run on the financial system. Between now and November, Fannie and Freddie could collapse....or, the President could get a call at 2 AM from Bernanke: "Mr. President, the Chinese are trying to buy Citibank..." I fully expect one major money center bank (Wachovia?)--and maybe a dozen regional banks--to fail.

Obviously, all of this is conjecture. I guess I would have just felt more invigorated today with the following scenario: Obama announces the choice of Bob Rubin, who "has generously offered to leave his post at Citibank" to become the Vice Presidential nominee. Specifially, Mr. Rubin would be spearheading a "Marshall Plan, to re-build the economy"....

One of the current over-used buzz words is "game-changer", but I think this would truly be one....if not Rubin, someone else from the private sector. As it stands now, the next 75 days are simply going to be the GOP demonizing/swift-boating Obama. My belief is that in politics, the only thing that trumps personality/character issues is pocketbook issues. If this election is about Obama--and not about Bush--we lose.


by BJJ Fighter on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 01:06:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You make very good points, (2.00 / 1)

I like ping-pong posts. Much better than the normal hit-and-run.

I think had Obama been down or up by a lot, he could've gone crazy with a right-field pick like Rubin. But, in a close race, you can't really throw all your eggs in one basket. What happens if we invent clean, infinite energy in October? The economy goes nuts, everyone's happy, we're printing money... McCain gets elected because people are only afraid of "terrorists", we invade three new countries and go back fifty years in civil rights. Always make sure you've got a broad narrative. Your overall narrative should be a shield. Your strength (economy) should be the spike on the front of the shield: if someone hits you, you want to protect yourself from damage while simultaneously having something that you can immediately push back on. If that spike falls off due to an unforeseeable circumstance, you can still bash your opponent with your blunt, broad narrative.

I think we've seen the swift-boating narrative, to be honest. The hand was tipped very early by the McCain camp, mostly so McCain could shore up Republicans by demonizing Obama and arugula. What we'll see next is simply repetition, which will start to fall hollow if the Democrats can shatter the "maverick" label.

In my opinion, if it's a Bush election, Obama in a landslide. Obama election, we win in a squeaker. Issues election, we win comfortably. McCain only wins if it's a fear election. Fear of Muslims, of war, of terrorism and Obama's inexperience dealing with those. Pulling in Biden does alleviate some of the last part.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 02:30:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

nice, thoughtful thread guys n/t (2.00 / 1)


What is The October Protocol?
by Koan on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 02:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nice, thoughtful thread guys n/t (2.00 / 2)

Shockingly, it is possible to have a substantive conversation on the Internet.


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 03:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You make very good points, (2.00 / 1)

But, if Russia invades Poland a week before the election (which isn't altogether out of the question, Russia threatened Poland with that after they agreed to house a missile defense system), we'd be left defenseless politically...

Right now, with the political situation changing, we can't just focus exclusively on the economy like Bill Clinton had the luxury of doing in '92 when the U.S. was at peace...  Biden covers that flank very well... and he's no slouch on the economy, either....


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 12:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As I just said at MLW... (2.00 / 2)




I HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT BIDEN and you're all going to think I'm a big SAP...

But I'm going to say it anyway, and let the slings and arrows fly at me fast and furious...

For all his faults, flaws and foibles -- and YES! YES! They are MANY! -- I cannot help it: I still love Joe Biden.

I always have.

There. I said it.

So, have at me. That's why I haven't been able to muster the hate. That's why my CYNICISM has been tepid. That's why I haven't been able to GRUMBLE, let alone BITCH, about this VP choice.

I love Joe Biden.

I love him.

I HEART JOE BIDEN, and nothing you say can change it.

Okay, go ahead, all you bitter haters from here and other sites, I know you just can't WAIT to lay into me and say what a fucking CENTRIST RIGHT WING FASCIST SELL-OUT I AM, or worse, what an IGNORANT IDIOT... blah blah blah.

I love Joe Biden.

I love him.

I HEART JOE BIDEN, and nothing you say can change it.




If I can't rant, I don't want to be part of your revolution
by Maryscott OConnor on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 11:55:42 AM EST

Re: As I just said at MLW... (2.00 / 2)

I think my favorite line on MLW was from Arthur Gilroy, when he said "his inner censor doesn't kick in when it should" and called it "Truthette's syndrome".


by TCQuad on Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 12:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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