Yes, it would seem that's the case. First, you've got the announcement for when Clinton is speaking at the convention, "Tuesday night is Hillary night," said one supporter. Second, VoteBoth.com is shutting it down, saying, "Regretfully, this means that Senator Hillary Clinton is no longer under consideration as Senator Obama's running mate."
I was never a big fan of Clinton and Obama teaming up, either way, though I do get the idea. Successful VP picks tend to go two ways. First, a very competitive primary candidate that represents another wing of the party is joined to the ticket in order to combine forces. The 'shotgun marriage' type of ticket. The 1980 Reagan-Bush ticket, or the 1960 Kennedy-Johnson ticket, is a good example of this type of ticket. Certainly, an Obama-Clinton ticket would have fit this bill.
The second successful ticket combines simpatico candidates, who work together well. It overlooks things like geography and the primary. The best example of this ticket is Clinton-Gore in 1992, and Bush-Cheney in 2000.
Then there's the overt political choices, that have mixed results, like Gore-Lieberman in 2000, Dole-Kemp in 1996. I'd stick the 2004 ticket of Kerry-Edwards here too, and you could argue that Bush-Cheney is here as well. Its a ticket based on polling mostly, but also on filling voids and, in the case of Bush-Cheney, reassurance.
Where does that leave us with Obama? The choice of Biden is not a simpatico move, but a calculation, a reassurance move. As, ultimately, is the choice of Reed, or any other Sentor. The choice of either Sebelius or McCaskill is a move of simpatico, but it's very difficult to believe that Obama is going to have Clinton speak on Tuesday, and a different woman as VP on Wednesday. The comparison will be the story, which is not good.
Edwards, Clark, Richardson, none of those seem in contention according to the leaks. And the best choices, Warner, Strickland, Webb, are out of the running. Out of the leaked candidates, we are left with Bayh and Kaine. Bayh, obviously a calculative move, and Kaine, a simpatico choice.
Who knows, maybe its someone else, but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama makes his announcement just prior to going on vacation (sometime during the Olympics), so that the press focuses on the VP candidate. Lets say its Kaine.
In the last poll results here, Sebelius (42%), Kaine (41%) and Bayh (15%), he did pretty well. In the follow-up poll, the question is whether Kaine is a good choice, or Obama should choose someone else.
Update [2008-7-31 12:2:55 by Jerome Armstrong]: Jeralyn is wondering whether Kaine is a smokescreen for Sebelius. I highly doubt it, but maybe for someone else.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 116 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
