Can offshore oil drilling save down-ticket Republicans?

Congressman Tom Latham is a conservative Republican representing Iowa's fourth district (D+0). He has a lot more money in the bank than Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald, but Iowa political observers think this race could be very competitive. The DCCC and EMILY's list are said to be watching the race closely.

Yesterday Latham opened up his war chest to start running statewide radio ads touting his advocacy of drilling for more oil on U.S. territory.

I don't have audio from this ad, but judging from this press release, it hits some of the same points John McCain raised in a television ad launched last week. That commercial blamed Barack Obama for high gas prices because Obama opposes more offshore oil drilling.

Join me after the jump for more on Latham's strategy, which may be repeated by down-ticket Republicans across the country.

Last month the National Republican Congressional Committee advised incumbents to run on personal and local issues and distance themselves from the national Republican brand. But speaking to Iowa Independent recently, Latham asserted that Republicans can win this year's elections by focusing on high gas prices and the "surge" in Iraq.

This press release from Latham's campaign showcases this spin in action by highlighting

Latham's work to lower gas and energy prices for Iowa families.

The sixty second ad reinforces Latham's continued commitment to renewable energy but also discusses the need for Congress to work immediately to increase domestic energy supplies that America controls.

"$4.00 a gallon gas hurts Iowa families," notes Latham in the ad. "And they're frustrated with leaders in Congress for not doing more about it - and they have every right to be."

"I have always been, and will continue to be, a strong supporter of alternative energy research and production, but we need to work for solutions that get Iowans from point A to point B without busting their family budget."

Latham has been working in Congress on legislation aimed at increasing our domestic supply of affordable that will lower gas and energy prices through the increased use of our current resources, to include off-shore drilling and drilling in ANWR.

Will a commitment to more oil drilling save Republican candidates from an otherwise hostile political environment?

The rapid response from Becky Greenwald's campaign (full text here) points out various misleading aspects of Latham's radio ad:

Experts agree that offshore drilling will do nothing to lower gas prices for seven to ten years, and its clear that this ad is a diversion from Latham's votes against opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and forcing oil companies to drill on existing leases. (McClatchy, 6/18/08)

"I'm running for Congress because of these sort of shenanigans. Latham is trying to get Iowans to think about leasing 2,000 more acres when 68 million acres already leased are open, untapped and will lower prices. Latham is trying to divert attention from his failure to support immediate relief through opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and forcing oil companies to drill on existing leases," said Becky Greenwald, Candidate for Congress in Iowa's 4th District. "Is it too much to ask for leaders to be honest with us?"

Unfortunately, Latham, like George Bush decided to play politics with gas prices. Last week, he voted against a bill that would release 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic oil reserve to bring relief from high gas prices. This bill would bring almost immediate relief to high gas prices. (H. Res. 6578)

And two weeks ago, Latham voted against a bill to force oil companies to drill on existing leases. There are 68 million acres of federal land already leased by oil companies. That is two times the size of the state of Iowa available for energy production that is now sitting idle. (H.R. 615)

(emphasis in original)

Like McCain's tv ad bashing Obama last week, Latham's radio ad is wrong to imply that drilling for more oil offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would solve our energy problems. Even the president of the Teamsters Union, which long supported increased oil drilling in the U.S., announced last week that the union had changed its position:

"We are not going to drill our way out of the energy problems we are facing--not here and not in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge," [Teamsters General President Jim] Hoffa told labor and environmental activists at an Oakland, Calif., summit on good jobs and clean air. "We must find a long-term approach that breaks our dependence on foreign oil by investing in the development of alternate energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power."

But some polls have found widespread support for the Republican position on offshore drilling, right?

Rasmussen's most recent findings suggest that the public is divided on whether more drilling is the answer:

A new Rasmussen Reports national survey, taken last night (Monday), finds that 45% think placing more restrictions on energy speculators is more important, while 42% take the opposite view that allowing offshore oil drilling is more important.

A major partisan divide on the issue, like the split in Congress, is evident, however. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Republicans say lifting the ban is the highest priority, while 59% of Democrats - and 48% of unaffiliated voters -- say controlling speculators is more important. Only 29% of unaffiliateds say lift the ban first.

Unaffiliated or "no-party" voters have a slim plurality among registered voters in Iowa's fourth district, and there are about 8,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the district.

If Rasmussen's findings are accurate, then Latham may be out of step with his constituents on this issue.

But Latham is clearly convinced that he is on the right side of public opinion. His campaign's press release said the new radio ad is airing statewide. That's a lot more expensive than running the ad only in the main fourth district media markets (Des Moines and Mason City).

Is he trying to raise his profile to pave the way for a gubernatorial bid against Chet Culver in 2010? Whatever his motive, it's a sign of confidence for him to use this issue to introduce himself to Iowans across the state.

Final note: if you reject Latham's misleading spin on energy policy, please donate to Greenwald's campaign to help her respond on the air. She has a lot going for her in this race and a real chance to win this swing district if she raises enough money this summer, especially if the DCCC or EMILY's list get involved.



Display:


Support for offshore drilling is down (none / 0)

from 67% in early June to now 57% according to rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/americans_split_on_whi ch_is_more_important_offshore_drilling_o r_crackdown_on_speculators

Hopefully, Obama holding firm (Clinton as well) will be able to continue nicking down this issue to where it's 50-50.

The same poll I cited indicates that slightly more Americans consider "placing more restrictions on energy speculators" more important than "offshore drilling.  Perhaps we can turn this issue around the pubs by focusing on their opposition to imposing windfall profits taxes on the oil companies.


by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 02:20:44 AM EST

Re: Support for offshore drilling is down (none / 0)

Down to 45% today per Rasmussen...

"A new Rasmussen Reports national survey, taken last night (Monday), finds that 45% think placing more restrictions on energy speculators is more important , while 42% take the opposite view that allowing offshore oil drilling is more important."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/americans_split_on_whi ch_is_more_important_offshore_drilling_o r_crackdown_on_speculators


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 02:32:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Support for offshore drilling is down (none / 0)

Oops.. we're quoting the same poll... how come we got such different results?


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 02:33:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I suspect the wording of these questions (2.00 / 1)

affects the results quite a bit.

But if this poll is accurate, it suggests that Democratic candidates should play up the windfall tax on oil company profits angle in response to Republican messages on cranking up oil production.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 02:34:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I like that idea. (2.00 / 1)

Combining it with the need to get off the carbon based energy economy that Gore talks about.  People understand that oil companies do not have their interests at heart.


by TomP on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 08:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Support for offshore drilling is down (none / 0)

Why aren't Democrats hammering the oil speculators issue more?  This could be a huge winner, since the results would occur now, not years from now!

Why aren't the Democrats talking about energy at all?


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 02:35:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why aren't the Democrats talking about energy (2.00 / 1)

Headline:
SENATE REPUBLICANS BLOCK OIL SPECULATION BILL
Republicans Block Oil Windfall Tax

Democrats are talking about energy. But everyone else is talking about VP picks.


by Glaurung on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 03:09:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can offshore oil drilling save down-ticket Rep (none / 0)

Sorry, I mean 42%... only 29% of independents think that the offshore drilling ban should come before curbing oil speculation.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 02:32:55 AM EST

offshore oil drilling (none / 0)

People are losing their jobs, homes, and savings, and the GOP is pinning its hopes on offshore drilling in the vague promise of lowering gas prices by pennies in ten years.

I say let them go for it while Democrats propose creating a vibrant economy based on better and cleaner energy and clean their clocks with it.


by Glaurung on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 03:04:22 AM EST

Re: Can offshore oil drilling save down-ticket Rep (2.00 / 1)

This is an issue we can easily win with some basic voter education.  I'm not terribly worried about it, and we shouldn't be running in fear from it.  We don't need to win the argument based on environmentalism.

1) Oil companies aren't exploiting the land they do have rights to.

  1. Offshore drilling would not create a decent sized lower gas prices.
  2. Offshore drilling would not have any effect at all for 5-10 years.

There's three solid arguments against it without having to mention "crunchy" environmental issues at all - its something that any pragmatist voter who cares about economics will understand.  I don't really understand why people think this is a poison pill - we're still more vulnerable on the "traditional" fronts such as taxes.  (not that we should chance our policies there, just that if we're going to take a hit, that's where it's going to be).


by auronrenouille on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 03:29:09 AM EST

Re: Can offshore oil drilling save down-ticket Rep (none / 0)

These three things are the exact same response Kagen is giving to Gard's attacks (see my post below).


The best sig is no sig.
by Noonan on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:48:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mostly a GOP issue (2.00 / 1)

This is still mostly an issue for the hardcore GOP.   Oil prices are expected to continue to soften until election day.  While they will still be high, they will probably be $.20 to $.30 below where they are now.
I think that most Americans are going to be smart enough to know that off shore drilling would not make that much of a difference.
by gavoter on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 08:45:49 AM EST

Famous Last Words (2.00 / 1)

"Most Americans are smart enough..."

don't EVER assume that.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:10:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Famous Last Words (none / 0)

OK, I will rephrase.  American's who are smart enough to actually look at an issue and make an informed decision.

Those who are not smart enough are going to be voting for the GOP no matter what we do.


by gavoter on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 10:36:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The in my opinion (none / 0)

we're doomed.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 11:06:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can offshore oil drilling save Repubs? (2.00 / 1)

Somebody should tell idiot voters that we're already the third largest oil producer in the world.

The problem isn't underproduction, it's overconsumption.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.c fm


by Bush Bites on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:03:36 AM EST

Re: Can offshore oil drilling save Repubs? (2.00 / 1)

And lack of competition due to the megamergers of the 90s, which turned the oil industry into a oligopoly.

(A few companies creating the effect of monopolistic pricing.)


by Bush Bites on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:07:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can offshore oil drilling (2.00 / 1)

In the Kagen-Gard rematch (WI-08) Gard has turned into a one-trick pony. All his robocalls and townhall meetings are about offshore drilling. As I'm doing doors for my campaign (http://votekoehn.com) the people worried about gas prices tell me that drilling won't solve the problem.

I believe this is a ticket to nowhere for Republicans running on this theme.


The best sig is no sig.
by Noonan on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:46:53 AM EST

Re: Can offshore oil drilling (none / 0)

Is Gard proposing they drill in Lake Michigan?


by admiralnaismith on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 10:48:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: offshore oil drilling (2.00 / 1)

Seems to me, it might help far-inland people like Latham, but it will be death to Republicans in places like Florida.


by admiralnaismith on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 10:47:58 AM EST

Re:offshore oil drilling (none / 0)

hmmm.anyone remember the GOP tax credits for big SUV and trucks?

http://www.smsmallbiz.com/Tax-Deductible _Business_Vehicles.html


"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 11:55:30 AM EST

Great News (none / 0)

If there has to be drilling (which I completely oppose), it needs to be done from a position of strength - after the election, when Dems have incresed majorities, and, if we all keep working hard, a Democratic president.


by NewOaklandDem on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 01:33:21 PM EST


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