In the Gallup Daily Tracking poll, Obama is still up 48-40.

Also, nobody has bothered to disabuse me of the notion that Obama never does as well in Friday-Sunday polls because his younger audience is out, away from their homes and land lines.

Oh noes! An outlier!

"among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November"

Anyone got some data on who those voters, in fact, are?

No.  791 people for a national poll?  Wake me up when it's closer to 1,500.

And there are two tracking polls and a Research 200 poll that put him up but 3 to 12 points.

My pull out of my ass estimate is that he's up by four or five points.

THis means that we still have work to do!  Register voters!  Inform you friends on issues!  Donate to the DNC/Obama/Local candidates!

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/200 8/07/gains-for-mccai.html

I would have to see more polls before this can be taken seriously .

Its early in the game to worry about the polls.

I don't see what Mccain has done in recent weeks to make himself more appealing and Obama has had a solid week by all accounts , the only misstep in my view was his answer on the surge ,if he were to do it again would he oppose it.

And, poll-wise we're still in the stupor-season. I'll be much more interested in September when the conventions are passed and the running mates chosed.

I do wonder what happens if McCain's latest biopsy and mole removal becomes the catalyst to the necessary discussion of McCain's fitness to be president. That 1,600-page, 8-year health report, visable for only 3 hours and with no photos allowed, was a disgrace. I can't believe the media allowed that to happen. Sooner or later there will be a real call for accountability on his health.

Mccain is at 49 not Obama .

Point of correction.

Not particularly.  Cherry picking has always been more your scene, Jerome.  I don't get too excited when he's up or down.  I think poll composites are a much more accurate portrayal of the current feelings of the electorate.

Concerned? Of course! The race ought to be run as it were even. But what's your point? Ignore all polls? I do notice you have a propensity to cherry pick data and thus hurting your credibility. I would like it more if you explained the poll as some have. I do not like the weekend theory but the sample size does look awfully small. How good have USA commissioned Gallup polls fared? What are the internals? Why does the likely voter skew R in this poll when it is Ds who seem more enthusiastic?

Why is Jerome trolling is own site?

Why does Gallup have one poll with McCain up by 4 while the tracking poll has Obama up by 8?

You know what's funny? Realclearpolitics.com never posted the last USA Today/Gallup poll. I kept looking and looking for it and it never showed up. Its +6 for Obama would have brought up the average.  

But now, whoosh, it's right in there, bringing down the poll average.  If you look at the list of the recent polls, it sure looks like an outlier.

Never forget that RCP is run by partisan Republicans.

But no matter what we think about the polls, it's always a good time to work hard to put a Democrat in the WH!

This is the attrition stage of the battle.  Some indications that the Rightists will ultimately break crop up from time to time, and we're on guard against weaknesses in our own ranks.  But the rout will come, and not too late to be decisive.  We must try to manage the timing as best we can--at or below 30%, McCain will begin to reform his troops as his deserters' shame overcomes all else.  

Nope.

He's auditioning for Sunday talk, but in order to do so he must learn to concern troll like Susan Estrich, Lanny Davis and Pat Caddell.

Guys, Jerome is not trolling his own site. He asks if we are concerned. I, for one, am concerned.

Concerned, however, doesn't mean panicked, for all of the various reasons that other folks have mentioned here. The Friday-Sunday argument, Gallup's likely voter screens, statistical noise: any and all may be relevant.

Serendipitously, my wife and I, who are house and dog sitting for the kids while our new granddaughter gets introduced to the other side of the family, dropped in last week on the opening of the new Nueces County Democratic Party HQ opening/unity party in Corpus Christi, TX. The local voter registrar (a Democrat , thank goodness) nailed it when he said, "It won't matter if we register 140,000 Democrats if only 50,000 of them turn up to vote."

The takeaway here is the apparent gap between likely and registered voters. We know that we Democrats have been doing real well in new voter registrations this year. But registrations aren't votes. GOTV is the name of the game.

I expect the poll numbers to go up for McCain. He's attacking Obama for flip-flopping, for not supporting the troops, for wanting to lose a war, etc.  What's Obama's response?  A tepid smile and a soft rebuttal.  Lame.  I'm a Democrat and I support Obama 100%; however, we need to toughen up and attack the GOP and McCain hard.

No.

Really, you find reality to be narcissistic?

"Former Gov. Mario Cuomo expressed concern."  Concern.  Bwahahahaha!

...saying that he wasn't sure if he was endorsing Obama or Clinton?

I've heard of "always fighting the last war," but this is ridiculous.  How does Cuomo's endorsement affect the current race one bit?  Is Cuomo's concern over the death penalty going to suddenly make him vote for John "Death!" McCain?

So you pick the only recent poll that doesn't show a bump, without noting that fact, and then you quote Cuomo, whose criticism makes no sense?  Not sure what your point is here, other than yet another passive aggressive swipe at a candidate you don't particularly like.    

As to the poll, it sure looks like an outlier based upon an odd LV screen.  It still has Obama leading when it looks at RVs.  Regardless, it's one poll.  Who cares?  

Similarly, Cuomo's criticism is insane if you've ever visited Obama's website, which is full of detailed policy proposals and white papers.  It sure would be helpful if the Governor would tell us what issue he'd like to know more about, because I suspect the answers are all out there already.  Honestly, as a former fan of Governor Cuomo who (1) badly wanted him to run for president; and (2) was disappointed when he turned down Clinton's offer to place him on the Supreme Court, this quote is embarrassing.  Both Obama and CLinton ran on quite specific platforms.    

This poll should be cause for concern among all of us.

The last thing we need is Rethugs thinking they might just have a chance.

Let's get the media to do their job, and this will change pronto.

Write, call, eMail in and ask why they're giving McCain a pass on his shameful attacks, why a recent study says Obama's media coverage has been unrelentingly negative.

The MSM want nothing better than a 2-point lead by whoever on November 1, and ratings victories for them as viewers and readers remain glued to their screens all thru this Election.

There's a real winner. First he chickened out of the presidential race, then he failed to get re-elected governor in 1994. Other "concerned" winners.

Lanny Davis (no comment needed)
Susan Estrich (ran the Dukakis campaign)
Pat Caddell (Jimmy Carter. Caddell went of the reservation years ago).

campaign just has NOT been aggressive enought.  In June they were atttacking McCain as Bush's third term and now they are playing prevent defense.  

The Obama campaign should be going on OFFENSE on the economy every day from now until election day.

They should be giving SPECIFIC proposals to campaign on and blast McCain every day.

I hope this poll wakes up the Obama campaign.

Why don't you just save yourself and everyone some energy and say we're going to lose the election? Then at least you will have told us what you really think.

voters who prefer McCain will turn out for him.

98%.

That's over 40 points higher than it was for Bush/Kerry in 2004.

Pollsta, please.

Its funny.  We never see anything about Obama's good polling.  You know all the other polls that show Obama with a 5-9 point lead.  But he of course starts a diary about the one poll showing him losing.  Talk about cherry picking looking for bad news.

In my opinion. See a lead of 3-4 % isnt much at this point in the election. The picture will only become clearer in September when the conventions get over and the candidates start debting. If McCain's performance is as bad as it was in the Republican debates, then Obama is going to win even if debates are a weak point for him.

1) I'm concerned about this country's total debt = 9.5 trillion dollars that equates to $30,400 per person U.S. population, or $60,100 per head of the U.S. working population.

2. I'm concerned that our dollars are being pocketed by corrupt pols in Iraq and Pakistan.
   
3. I'm concerned that our leaders have little clue about the economic mess that we are getting into or how to lead us out of it.
   
4. I'm concerned that by constantly bailing out Wall Street, we are effectively lowering the risks associated with 'bad' investments.
   
5. I'm concerned that the Big Three car companies are teetering to the brink of collapse
   
6. I'm concerned that airlines practically treat us passengers like shit.
   
7.  I'm concerned that US has practically given up its manufacturing. One cannot train out of the next technology jobs anymore....
   
8. I'm concerned that our investments in Science and Technology are stagnating or taking a back step.
   
9. I'm concerned that next generation scientists and engineers are going to be harder to find.
   

Add your concerns to the list...

I KNEW Jerome was going to make a post that referenced this poll!

Jerome, when it gets to the point that you are trolling and then mocking your own audience, you may be getting close to jumping the blogging shark.

We get it.  You don't like Obama, you don't like Obama supporters, and you're jealous and angry that kos got it right and you got it wrong.  But it's time to stop sulking.

The more you write this sort of diary, the more you drive away the very people giving you ad impressions.

"You campaign in poetry.  You govern in prose."

I am confused man with this final parting line on your diary:

But until the sale is made, at least, the sarcastic take above on the single poll shows that it's very easy to rile up the concern trolling accusers-- thin skinned troupe there.

Are you calling the members of your site this?

Because I would say 98% of the commentors here are all on the same page.

You keep acting like there is some war going on, but Unity is strong.

We are willing to do whatever it takes to take our government back and make it work again for the people, not the neocons.

I'm sorry, Jerome, but this is basically right.  Pretty much the only posts I see you post recently are basically not related to the presidential contest (which is fine, this is about more than the President), or if they are, are sort of the the "I told you so" variety.  

When Gallup releases two polls that literally show Obama doing his best AND his worst over the same period of time vs. McCain, and one poll is more in line with the others right now, you choose to pick out the obvious outlier as sort of your justification that Obama is a bad candidate or something?  Wonderful.  Keep up the good work.

If other polls suddenly show a massive reversal, perhaps we'll have something to worry about.  So far, all the polls have been fairly consistent except for this one.  Obviously an outlier.

I would be concerned if I hadn't bothered to read the pollster himself disavowing his own poll.

Is that Axelrod doesn't have a plan for after the Convention.

I'm hopefully assuming that they're just introducing Obama to the country right now, and taking McCain's hits as they come--sort of feeling him out with a rope a dope strategy.

I pray that they have a different plan for after the convention: Like a different attack line every week and a concentrated attempt to use every resource at their disposal to drive McCain to melt down.

We'll see.

I don't believe I've ever seen a blogger that has more contempt for his own readership than Jerome does.

He trolls, then argues he was being sarcastic when nobody supposedly "gets" it. Yeah, yeah, Jerome's a sarcastic troll with a lame sense of humor -- and he somehow thinks that's a good thing and an excuse for his lame-humored trollery.

I "hope" the great one loses.  Although, if I had to put money on it, I think Obama is going to win. If he picks Clinton as the VP, then its really over. But not yet.

Does anyone out there seriously think that if Obama's name was "Joe Christian White" and everything else was the same except his skin color -- his policies, his experience, his foreign national father and hippie mother, his grade school years in the Philippines, his soaring rhetoric and youthful energy -- that the guy wouldn't be up on McCain at least 15 points by now?

Come on.  The difference between Barack Obama and "any generic Democrat" is nothing but his skin color, his strange name, his middle name and his scary ex-preacher.

This is a steep learning curve for the American public and a certain percentage of them will never make the curve but enough of them will.  They'll get used to a black presidential candidate with a different scary sounding name just like they got used to other scary new things throughout history.

Yeah, it's going to be close.  duh.  This is the first black candidate, AFTERALL.  That's why we have to get out there and make it happen.

are just not into Obama - we've been around long enough and seen/heard them all, so we are not so easily swayed by florishing words + running, not as a centrist but a conservative goes against everything we've fought for, over the years!

We were the backbone of the party, the reliable voters until Obama threw us under the bus to get your votes! Among many reproaches I have of him, the most glaring is his pitting one generation against another!

they will not come out to vote for him in November, they'll rather stay home than do so or vote McCain/Nader/Green/third party instead to send a message that their votes are not to be taken for granted! You've inherited the party, win this election on your own!

Concern trolling, fun for friends, family, and a good party game too!

Look, NO democrat has garnered a majority of the American vote since 1976, and that was barely a majority.  The last time a Democrat won a majority in a landslide was 1964, thats right 44 years ago.

Even if Obama were to win by just 52-48, that would be the biggest Democratic win in decades.  

Look, there is a huge built in bias against any Democratic candidate by the American public.  I know several people that call themselves independents, but they are only independent because they might vote for the GOP, or they might not vote.  They just won't vote for the Democrat, any Democrat.

We all know what the real meaning of this post is, that if HRC were the nominee she would be up by 10, 20, maybe 110%.  The truth is that she would be in the same boat.  And maybe even worse because of the entusiasm gap.  This is not a slight on her saying that she would lower it on the Democratic side, but she would greatly increase it on the GOP side because of the number of people who would want to vote against her.

No matter how bad things are, I don't think you are ever going to see less than 43-45% of the American people vote for the GOP for President, at least not anytime soon.