MyDD :: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH?

Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH?

by rfahey22, Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:21:36 PM EST

One would hope that this is an outlier, but clearly there is work to be done. An Ohio poll released today by Rasmussen has McCain leading by 10 points when including "leaners" (6 points without). Between this and the PPP poll showing Obama leading by 8 (as well as various other polls showing Obama with a slight lead), I'm not sure what to believe.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_pr esidential_election

Tags: McCain, Obama, Ohio (all tags)

Permalink :: 54 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

too early to bank on polls.

probably has to do with party id and m/f ratio disparity between both polls

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:25:17 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (2.00 / 1)

Possibly. Poblano at Five Thirty Eight attempted to reconstruct the party i.d. and concluded that that might account for 4 points'-worth of difference between the two polls (of the 18), but that's still a vast difference.

by rfahey22 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

Also, Rasmussen's was done yesterday only while PPP's was over a period of a few days. Still, though, it surprises/bothers me that he'd seem to be doing worse during this trip!

"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."

by vcalzone on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:34:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (2.00 / 1)

These polls should be taken with a huge pile of salt this early.

However it shows that there is a whole lot of work to do , the inevitability campaign in some quarters should be reevaluated

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:40:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

fifteen weeks isn't that far out....

I still say it's time forget about Obama and just focus on Congress before this energy issue
takes its toll downballot.

by esconded on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 04:53:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm considering it an outlier for now (2.00 / 1)

I don't believe either candidate could be up by 10 in Ohio.

One out of every 20 polls will be wrong just by chance even if they do perfect random sampling.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:25:48 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

PPP has Obama up 8. Odd.

The plural of anecdote is not data.

by LiberalDebunker on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:26:22 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

Yes very odd that most the Ohio polls have shown a lead for Obama, and then all of a sudden during a very sucessful Obama overseas trip, McCain jumps into a 10 point lead in Ohio. Could it be that Rasmussen is up to their old Pro-GOP tricks like the one where they gave George Bush a 7 point lead over Al Gore on election day 2000.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 03:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm calling BS on Rass (none / 0)

How is it we can have a close race in Alaksa, North Carolina and the Dakotas, an Obama lead in Montana yet a McCain blowout in Ohio?

by RandyMI on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:26:58 PM EST

Re: I'm calling BS on Rass (none / 0)

I hope so, it was certainly a glass of cold water to the face this afternoon.

by rfahey22 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:29:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm calling BS on Rass (2.00 / 1)

Wipe you face off. Sit down take a couple of deep breaths. It's July and this poll is contrary enough to be somewhat doubtful.

Now if this was a September number I'd start to hyperventilate a bit.

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:33:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I could see (none / 0)

Obama winning in a mini-landslide and that landslide not including Ohio and Florida.

I just get the feeling even as he's turning red into blue all across the country, he's going to struggle in Ohio.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:37:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I could see (none / 0)

Why so Ohio?

Just curious, and THAT BIG of a lead for McCain?

I can see it being tight, or McCain leading by 5, but double digits?

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:42:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PUMA (none / 0)

is probably stronger in Ohio than most other places. In order for Obama to win the state, he has to do well in the 6th Congressional District in Appalachia and boost turnout in the cities.

From what I've learned about Ohio through people I know there and from the primary, he's getting killed in the 6th Congressional District, where Clinton overwhelmed him, and he's not as strong as most Democrats are in Youngstown/Akron.

I don't particularly expect Obama to carry Ohio. He doesn't need to. I don't think there's any way for him to do so because the issue is likely race and experience.

Personally, I'd be SHOCKED if Obama won Ohio.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PUMA (none / 0)

"PUMA (none / 0)
is probably stronger in Ohio than most other places."

Sorry, not trying to be a pest, but why?

Is the demographic older or something?

Or is that Appalachian effect?

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Both (2.00 / 1)

no, it's ok to pest lol. It's worth the discussion.

It's both probably. One thing we don't realize is the traditional Democratic strongholds of Ohio are the cities and the 6th Congressional District, which btw was the district of now Governor Ted Strickland. Without the 6th District, Obama needs to outperform all Democrats before him in the cities and elsewhere in the state. Appalachian Ohio is the key to a Democratic victory in that state. Look at how Strickland and Senator Brown performed in that area in 2006.

This is a state Clinton would've won easily, but Obama probably won't. Ohio is the biggest reason for a Clinton candidacy. Now I think Clinton would have had a similar PUMA problem among liberal-dominated states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Iowa, and Oregon.

If we're going to work for Ohio, we'd better start flooding Appalachia now and seeing if we can change attitude there. If not, we'd better start locking up Colorado and Virginia.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Both (none / 0)

Thanks, that's great info.

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No problem (none / 0)

This is what pissed me off over at kos before I got thrown out of there. This "fuck Appalachia" attitude. Well, that's fine, but when you are throwing out Appalachia, we threw away Ohio and made Pennsylvania a hell of a lot harder. I fully expect to see some tight Pennsylvania polls soon.

That PUMA thing though is shown in the crosstabs, which has him winning 74% of Democrats. That 26% I would bet money that they're coming from CD 6, where the Democratic Party is older and conservative.

Hell, google the name Jennifer Garrison, a Democrat in the Ohio House from Appalachian Ohio and read about her race against Republican Nancy Hollister in 2004...it'll give you an idea as to why Obama is having trouble down there.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No problem (2.00 / 1)

It's more than that. They got a sample of 500 from one state in one day. That seriously favors people who happen to be home on a Monday in July. In other words, older people and less educated people. People who would skew hard towards McCain.

"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."

by vcalzone on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:26:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No problem (2.00 / 1)

"It's more than that. They got a sample of 500 from one state in one day. That seriously favors people who happen to be home on a Monday in July. In other words, older people and less educated people. People who would skew hard towards McCain."

I diagree. Those home on a workday will be predominately those without jobs, ie folks on welfare, ie folks who would normally vote democratic by a huge margin.

I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?

by William Cooper on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:44:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No problem (none / 0)

It depends where you're talking about. In a state like Ohio, I'm betting they got the rural poor people, which are far less inclined to vote Democratic than anyone in the same area. Besides, the traditional labels are a bit off this cycle.

"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."

by vcalzone on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 10:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No problem (2.00 / 1)

Regardless of whether 'traditional labels' are a bit off or not, it's a documented fact that those home during the day are predominately those WITHOUT JOBS.

I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?

by William Cooper on Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 05:14:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PUMA (none / 0)

Yes, the demographic is definitely older here and less educated. Also, the racism in the state is RIPE! It's quite intense!

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's funny (none / 0)

I've lived in Italy five days and already my cousin has cornered me and asked me if we have a death wish because we nominated a black man in a country that's historically racist.

At first I got angry at him, but he might be right. It's nothing short of a miracle that Obama is competitive at all

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:26:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Screw that (none / 0)

I get so Sick of Europeans talking about American Racism while they are so blind to their own...

Did you ask your Italian friend about the Italian Jews?
Or did you ask him how come your cities are way more segregated than any city in America?

by gil44 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 03:34:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He knows (none / 0)

believe me, he knows and understands racism exists. As a matter of fact he even commented on how his political party would never "be stupid enough to run a Gypsy in Parliament"

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 03:39:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He knows (2.00 / 1)

I've lived in europe for fifteen years. Europe is far and away more racist than America, without a doubt, 100 percent.

They don't even try to hide it.

Could you imagine if we had a law that all blacks had to go to schools with the mentally handicapped?

In many eurozones they do exactly that with the gypsies/romany.

I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?

by William Cooper on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:48:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and btw (none / 0)

I just left New York where the racist was plenty ripe as well.

My brother tells me that's true in New Jersey...my ex-girlfriend in Massachusetts says same there...and I phonebanked Indiana and it was bad among Democrats.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:27:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and btw (2.00 / 1)

You'll have to excuse me for not caring whether someone uses the 'n' word or not. That is not racism.

Real racism is much more serious, and a life and death matter. Our 'racism' is tame by world standards.

I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?

by William Cooper on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:50:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm calling BS on Rass (none / 0)

You cannot compare Alaska to Ohio like that. There are vastly different demographics in these two states, ideologically.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

STP

Screw the polls, screw the pundits.

Still, this is a strange one, I think it is TOO big to make any sense, but I don't like it anyway.

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:31:00 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

I think Rasmuessen changed their model to skew if favor of the repugs. It is very sad that they are turning their polls into a pollster for the repugs instead of being hones. Sad, very sad.

by Spanky on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:34:06 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (2.00 / 1)

I think PPP changed their model in favor of the DEMs. You see how that works? You just can't accuse a firm of skewing the results in favor of one party without any proof other than the comparison of a poll that you favor.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

Actually, the July poll had more Republicans and fewer Democrats than the June poll for PPP.

June PPP (OH)
55D - 30R

July PPP (OH)
46D - 33R

Obama leads among Independents in PPP. Trails among Independents by a lot in Rasmussen.

Something is wrong.

by elrod on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 04:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

Believe neither. The race is likely just about even.

by Marylander on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:43:10 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

No xtabs to look at so...

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:48:56 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

PPP had Obama with an 8 point lead too today.

Somebody done fucked up

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:50:59 PM EST

MyDD map shows Oregon switching too (none / 0)

I tried to google for an updated OR poll but didn't see one.

Anyone?

by magster on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:53:18 PM EST

Re: MyDD map shows Oregon switching too (none / 0)

I noticed that too, and was confused as well, because I would have thought that would be HUGE news...but haven't heard about any new polls.

by Raumfahrer on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:58:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rasmussen always skews to McCain in OH (none / 0)

But not by this much.

PPP has Obama winning women by 20. Ras has McCain winning women by 1.

They are polling two different states.

This reminds me of those garbage Zogby polls in the primary. Somebody is WAY off.

by elrod on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:08:13 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

It's July. Believe none of them.
They're measuring whimsy, not opinion.

by M1513 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:32:39 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

I totally distrust Rass polls always have. If this guy is not a Republican spear carrier I don't no who is. All that said, this is not and never was going to be a walkover in OH. Basically this is the classic state where he needs Clinton. Deny it all you want. Two sets of numbers not showing wildly dissimilar results.

by ottovbvs on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:33:52 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

I may as well say it, but I don't think Obama is likely to win Ohio. It's just SUCH a conservative state. I don't think people realize how much of an uphill climb a black candidate has there.

Poblano puts the chances of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio at only 15%. I don't know if that's supposed to be a reflection of how difficult making up for losing Ohio will be, or whether he thinks Ohio is a bellweather for other states (for example, he's writing off the importance of North Carolina because by his reasoning if Obama wins there then he will have won Virginia, and won't need NC).

At any rate, I caution you all against excessive optimism.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:48:25 PM EST

Excellently said (none / 0)

I was never overly optimistic with our chances. Not with Obama or Clinton. The fact that so many are entering this overconfidence phase, believing everything is just going to deliver a Democratic president is scary. Campaign like it's 2004, like we're behind everywhere, like we need to.

We're setting ourselves up for such a massive disappointment IMO.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:55:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Excellently said (2.00 / 1)

Get those 'McCain Stole The Election - It's Time To RIIOOOOTTT!!!' bumper stickers printed up.

I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?

by William Cooper on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:55:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

Obama has three paths to victory. One goes through Ohio. Another goes through states west of the Mississippi (Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico). Another is what I call the "black/brown" victory, counts upon him taking Virginia, New Mexico, and Nevada.

There are other combinations, but each, I think, highlights questions about a certain kind of voter. Respectively: can Obama hold onto white Dems in Appalachia; can he mobilize white indies in the upper Midwest and Rocky states; can he get African-American and latino voters to turn out for him in massive numbers?

And of the three I have the most doubts about the first, actually, because we're talking about voters who have backed the GOP in the past.

If Clinton had been at the top of the ticket, btw, I think her equivalent problem would have been indie voters in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa).

And all I'm suggesting, really, is that one probably can deduce from the primaries which voters are enthusiastic about Obama and who needs more encouragement (with a notable exception, I don 't think Dems will have any problems winning the latino vote this year).

The Rasmussen and PPP numbers are totally at variance, of course, and I'm expecting that when the race swings into high gear voters in Ohio will swing behind the Dem candidate.

It won't shock me, however, if they don't, and hope Obama is investing in these other two strategies (because each, to me, seem viable, even if there is some large-scale swing towards McCain in states like Ohio).

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:59:24 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

Two comments:

Donate.
Volunteer.

by mousethief on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 04:57:42 PM EST

This should be a valuable lesson (none / 0)

I keep reading we should rely on state polls. That's remarkable ignorance. Obviously the work of novices.

State polls are more relevant in primaries. In a general election it's a complete reversal. National polls are reliable, particular when averaged, and they pinpoint where individual states are likely to fall in line.

I've studied polls extensively since '96. You always have examples like this, a wacky state poll. There will be many more. I learned a decade ago to disregard them and default to logical relationship to the national mood.

You'll save yourself plenty of headaches, and scrambling for rationalization, when there is none.

I can't believe those guys at 538, or whatever it is, are wasting time trying to make sense of this poll. Does anyone seriously believe Obama leads nationally, but trails in Ohio by 10 points? LOL. I might as well say an NFL team will go unbeaten but have zero Pro Bowlers. At some point logical correlation has to thump you in the head.

by Gary Kilbride on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 06:16:10 PM EST

Rasmussen (none / 0)

says they're tied nationally, so if that's true, then yeah I can see a big McCain lead here.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 06:51:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen (none / 0)

A better question is how could Obama lead in Colorado by 7 and trail in Ohio by 10. It doesn't make sense.

Rasmussen conducts one-day polls in the states. How are one-day polls given scientific support?

by elrod on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 08:23:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

To me it does (none / 0)

Obama is weaker among Appalachian voters in Ohio and stronger among Libertarians in Colorado.

I mean it's like asking how Dukakis can win Iowa by 10 but lose Vermont. It's a different map.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 08:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: McCain +10 in OH? (none / 0)

pollster has their new cool map up...

http://www.pollster.com/

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 02:44:41 AM EST

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