MyDD :: Gallup bump: Obama up by 6 now; also, PPP: up 8 in OH

Gallup bump: Obama up by 6 now; also, PPP: up 8 in OH

by elrod, Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 01:40:14 PM EST

I figured the polls would show some movement to Obama at some point and I was discouraged to see Rasmussen show the race as tight as ever. But Gallup today, with two nights polling after Obama's trip began and last night as one of the strongest in the season, shows Obama up 47-41

We'll see if that number continues to increase, and if Rasmussen shows movement to Obama tomorrow.

Another piece of good news is a new PPP poll out of Ohio showing Obama up 8, 48-40. They did show a slightly larger lead last month of 50-39, but the difference may have been a different party ID sampling and not actual movement among partisans. Obama leads by 20 among women, and only trails among whites by 4.

UPDATE: I noticed from last month's PPP poll that the breakdown of party ID was 55-30. This month is 46-33. So, a 12-point movement to the GOP in party sample produces only a 3-point shift in preference between Obama and McCain. That seems pretty good.

Tags: Gallup (all tags)

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scooped (2.00 / 1)

You just beat me to the Gallup poll. This is the first time in over 10 days that Obama has had this big a lead in the Gallup tracking poll, and is definitely good news. It looks like the response to Obama's trip has been quite good, and it will be interesting to see what the non-tracking polls have to say, as the lead for Obama in those polls has been typically much wider than in the two tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen).

All in all, very good news, especially when coupled with the PPP Poll out of Ohio.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 01:52:47 PM EST

Re: Gallup bump: Obama up by 6 now; also, PPP: up (none / 0)

Bounce. Bounce. Bounce.
It only matters if it lasts.
Remember the Kerry convention bounce. It is particularly meaningless this far from election day.
And as to your comment on Ohio's drop: did it occur to you that perhaps the first poll was skewed? Or maybe both? A simple lesson I learned thirty years ago: the numbers are the numbers UNLESS you know all the metrics.

by M1513 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 01:53:08 PM EST

Re: Gallup bump: Obama up by 6 now; also, PPP: up (2.00 / 1)

You can call it meaningless if you like, but I'd rather be ahead by 6 meaningless points than behind by 6 meaningless points.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kerry received no bounce out of the convention (none / 0)

The swiftboaters did him in.

I wouldn't say this is a bounce either. There is some inherent fluctuation in all these polls.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:43:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kerry received no bounce out of the convention (2.00 / 1)

Kerry got a big bounce when he picked John Edwards for VP. That was early July 2004. Late July 2004, with the convention, he got a minor bounce. A week later the Swift Boat stories came out and Kerry flopped. The low point was the RNC, when Bush jumped to a sizable lead. But the first debate pulled the race back to even again in October. It was close to the end.

by elrod on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup bump: Obama up by 6 now; also, PPP: up (2.00 / 1)

The bounce out of the DNC convention this year will be enormous. The bounce from the RNC convention? Not so much. Not only are they sorely lacking in speakers with any sort of charisma or who connect with voters, McCain's acceptance speech is on the same night as NFL kickoff, and I predict independents will watch about 5 minutes and then flip.

Historically speaking, that means that the GOP would be SOL.

"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."

by vcalzone on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:24:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup bump (2.00 / 2)

Rasmussen 'seems' to follow the Gallup numbers, so I think you'll see those move too.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:07:44 PM EST

Re: Gallup bump (none / 0)

But doesn't Rasmussen have a shorter polling span (three-day as opposed to four-day)? If so, shouldn't Rasmussen be taking the lead, if Gallup and Rasmussen are tracking the same sentiments?

by rfahey22 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup bump (2.00 / 1)

Not anymore. They both use a three day average now, I think. At least I know Gallup does.

by elrod on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:18:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup bump: Obama up by 6 now; also, PPP: up (none / 0)

Not sure how important these polls are right now (although I do get the Gallup results via email all day long) the only important one will be in November, and I am still hoping for a landslide.

If he was doing as well in the polls as I hope he will do in November, we probably would not be working so hard to get him elected.

by Susan from 29 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:33:38 PM EST

Polling and perception (2.00 / 1)

As has been stated by many others, the press wants a close race so that people will pay attention, and right now some national polls, like the tracking polls, support that perception, with Obama unable to get out by more than seven or eight points.

The state polls paint a different picture. Obama is posting huge leads in CA and NY, with modest leads in the upper midwest and pacific northwest, while making VA and NC competative. McCain is strong in most of the south and parts of the midwest and apalacia, but that's about it.

I am not saying that this is in the bag, but there's a great deal of realignment here that's going on at the state level, and many pundits are probably going to be quite suprised by the results come election eve.

Bottom line: McCain's being propped up, and is barely hangining on, while Obama still has room to grow.

by NewOaklandDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 02:41:06 PM EST

Re: Polling and perception (2.00 / 1)

NewOakland. Broadly agree although I was a bit uncomfortable with the level pegging at the national level. With all this state movement there had to be some evidence of it at the national level and we now appear to be getting it. Frankly I don't think McCain is getting that much attention which may be a bad of a good thing. Rich Lowry in the NRO believes if the election is about Obama he loses, but then he would wouldn't he. The faithful have to have their spirits kept up. Once we move into convention and post convention there is going to be a lot more focus on the election. Based on my circle which is mainly middle aged and Republican leaning there is a lot of respect for McCain but they want out of Iraq. That's why I'm very sceptical of these polls showing an equal divide. Of course no one wants to accept "we've been defeated" but basically I think the vast majority of the country wants out so if Obama/Maliki offer a fig leaf they take it. The economy is also deep in the tank Paulson and Bernanke are trying to avoid a meltdown of the financial system and I think they'll succeed but otherwise the fundamentals of the economy are awful and likely to remain so until at least the end of next year. From a sceptic, I'm starting to think he's going to win by a landslide.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:07:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

STP=Screw the Polls, Screw the Pundits.... (2.00 / 1)

As I have stated, I am ignoring the polls, for my own sanity.

But, I AM watching the media, seeing if EVENTUALLY the will stop giving McCain the free pass and quit fixating on non-campaign issues from Obama (magazine covers?)

I am encouraged by the last couple of days, they DO seem to be digging a bit more at McCain's gaffes, and the reporting from Obama's trip has seemed positive.

Let's see the polls end of this week, to see if there is any effect.

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:03:51 PM EST

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