MyDD :: Is Obama Winning by Too Much Enough?

Is Obama Winning by Too Much Enough?

by Reaper0Bot0, Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:22:24 PM EST

Can the media actually comprehend that a consistent lead, one that averages somewhere around five points, is not neck and neck? I'm absolutely flummoxed here. If Senator Obama beats Senator McCain 52 to 47 that would not be a small victory, as it would probably be a 50+ EV spread.

How wide of a margin does Senator Obama need in these damned polls to get the mainstream media to treat it like a meaningful lead?

Quinnipiac 7/15 50/41 Obama
Rasmussen 7/14 47/39 Obama
Rasmussen (Daily Tracking) 7/15 44/40 Obama
Gallup (Daily Tracking) 7/13 46/43 Obama
Newsweek 7/12 44/41 Obama
RealClearPolitics (Poll of Polls) 47/42.5 Obama

A 4.5 point lead according to RealClearPolitics. Is that mammoth? No. Could it be larger? I wouldn't turn down a higher number. Is this barely leading? Not on your life.

Don't get me started on the individual state polls, you know, the ones that actually matter.

Obama's doing very well right now. There's always lots of room for improvement, sure, but considering how much I'd rather be in Obama's shoes than McCain right now...

I've heard that the internal polling from both camps shows a 9 point lead for Obama, just like today's Quinnipiac poll. Keep that in mind.

Do we need a consistent double digit lead in order to have the press treat this like he's actually winning? I swear it seems like they're trying to portray this lead like it doesn't even count or indeed even matter.

Tags: WTF (all tags)

Permalink :: 25 Comments :: Post a Comment

Tips? (2.00 / 3)

Yeah, cuz a five point win wouldn't really count anyway....

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:22:48 PM EST

A blowout isn't interesting (2.00 / 1)

The media hates blowouts.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:34:10 PM EST

Some of the number-heads around here (2.00 / 1)

probably know off-hand, but I could have sworn that most presidential elections are pretty close to 50/50 (when was the last 60/40?).

But folks in the media, when they are being frank, will say the trught right out: "We like tight races and long campaigns!".

Duh.

Lemme see, I sell a product (oh, let's say TV shows) and my success is measured (and compensated) by how many people consume them. Now what would my motivational matrix look like...?

"EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT!!!!!"

-chris

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:34:14 PM EST

"trught" (none / 0)

hmmmm....

Er, that was supposed to be "truth", just for the record...

-chris

"yer honor, these two yutes..."

"did you say 'yutes'?"

"Yeah, yutes! Oh, I see: these two 'you-th-s'..."

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "trught" (2.00 / 1)

Marisa Tomei for VP!!!! Vinny Gambini for AG!!!!!

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson

by MS01 Indie on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:50:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We just watched that (again) (none / 0)

the other night. I think it's one of the greats.

I have heard that those who follow such things think her Oscar was a conspiracy somehow (it wasn't an artsy enough film?), but I think she deserved it.

"Yer honor, can I have your permission to treat her as a hostile witness?"

"You want hostile, just wait until tonight."

Perfect role for Pesci as well. Funny and light but surprisingly deep and adult (you can't watch it on TV, for example, they have to edit the crap out of it). He does the volatile dime-turn like nobody else (he'd fit in around here in a heartbeat if that is more than acting).

"You mean, let me understand this cause, ya' know maybe it's me, I'm a little fucked up maybe, but - I'm funny how? I mean funny like I'm a clown? I amuse you? I make you laugh? I'm here to fuckin' amuse you? What do you mean funny? funny how? How am I funny? "

-chris

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 06:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We just watched that (again) (none / 0)

Loved Goodfellas. That was a great scene.

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson

by MS01 Indie on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 06:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too Much Enough? (none / 0)

Obviously it depends on the state for the GE. I think there is a bit of surprise that he isn't leading by more but other than that I haven't gotten the impression that anyone is trying to play down the polls. But it is very early to put much stock in them IMO.

by JustJennifer on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:34:41 PM EST

Polls are useless before the conventions (none / 0)

Check out the polls after the conventions.

by puma on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:39:08 PM EST

Re: Polls are useless before the conventions (none / 0)

That's absolutely fair.

That's NOT what the media is doing, though. They're treating a solid lead like it's not a lead at all. They're not saying that these polls are meaningless, they are making them meaningless.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:43:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls are useless before the conventions (none / 0)

The media has no desire or obligation to be fair (or accurate). They're corporations and their only obligation is to maximize profits on behalf of their shareholders. It's best to recognize this fact so you know what to expect from your corporate media. If you believe they have any sort of integrity or commitment to fair reporting, you will only end up deceived or disappointed.

by LakersFan on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:55:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (2.00 / 1)

Actually a lead of 4.5% IS barely leading. What you're doing here is ignoring context. Over 80% of the country says were going in the wrong direction, Bush has been at or below 30% for years and the generic difference is 12-15%. Against this background he should be polling much more strongly. If you can't concede that simple fact you have no objectivity. I was delighted to see the Quinniapac poll because it suggested his numbers are starting to align with the national mood. But if they prove an outlier he continues to have a problem however much you want to deny it.

by ottovbvs on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:47:39 PM EST

Bush isn't the GOP nominee (none / 0)

If you can't concede that simple fact you have no objectivity.

by JJE on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush isn't the GOP nominee (none / 0)

Whats the MoE? I think what is happening is unless the lead is outside of MoE it's not being called a lead thus, 52-48 with a MoE of 2% it's statistically possible that it's 50-50.

by MNPundit on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 04:10:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush isn't the GOP nominee (none / 0)

MoE matters for single polls, but if all polls are showing a consistent lead it's not a factor.

Are there ANY national polls that put McCain on top? If it was truly 50-50, or even 49-51, there would be.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 04:30:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush isn't the GOP nominee (none / 0)

And if you can't concede that Bush's name is going to be on the ballot you're as obtuse as your comment makes you sound.

by ottovbvs on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 05:04:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It would have to be obtuse indeed (none / 0)

to compete with the dumbassery in this comment..

by JJE on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 06:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (none / 0)

No Democrat has yet polled higher than the 4-6 range over McCain that Obama has been holding, with the exception perhaps of some Edwards/generic Republican polls done in 2007.

And that's not surprising - there are few Republican candidates better positioned to distance themselves from Bush than John McCain. If you watch cable news you can almost forget the fact the fact that he's a Republican.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 04:28:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (none / 0)

Yeah, but just ask yourself if you would suddenly vote Republican if we were just ending eight years of a crappy Democratic president's administration. My guess is that most Democrats would still vote for the Democratic replacement because they would reason that the person in office failed to live up to Democratic ideals, not that those ideals were inherently bankrupt. And, they would hope/wish that the replacement did embody those ideals. Inertia is a powerful thing.

by rfahey22 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 04:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (none / 0)

Over 80% of the country says were going in the wrong direction

51% of the country made Bush a 2-term president. What's your point?

It is not because I cannot explain that you won't understand. It is because you won't understand that I cannot explain. - Elie Wiesel

by Sumo Vita on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 04:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (none / 0)

The right direction/wrong direction question remains one of the most compelling broader polling indicators. If this polling 101 reality has to be explained to you, I could explain my point all day and you still wouldn't understand it.

by ottovbvs on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 05:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Try a five minute version. (none / 0)

Not that I doubt you could pontificate all day.

It is not because I cannot explain that you won't understand. It is because you won't understand that I cannot explain. - Elie Wiesel

by Sumo Vita on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 05:52:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (none / 0)

You are quickly becoming my favorite arm chair campaign manager. There is nothing more refreshing than people who believe they know everything about campaigns and politics who then hop on their keyboard and do the classic argument strategy of :

ENTER FAIRLY DECENT ARGUMENT HERE then CONCLUDE WITH NEEDLESSLY RUDE CHEAP SHOT

I salute you

by Xris on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:03:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too (none / 0)

Ah, but what you don't see is that for ottovbvs, the rude cheap shot is essential.

To abandon it would require him to:

(1) Put some thought into an original argument, instead of the observed flailing with rehashed PUMA rote
(2) Attempt to defend the obvious holes in said rehashed PUMA rote
(3) FACE UP to said alarming holes in afore-mentioned rehashed PUMA rote.

Which just might shatter reality for him in a very unkind way. I say we leave him to his juvenile put-downs and smile sympathetically at his outbursts. For the next five minutes, anyway.

It is not because I cannot explain that you won't understand. It is because you won't understand that I cannot explain. - Elie Wiesel

by Sumo Vita on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:37:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Winning by Too Much Enough? (none / 0)

It's also leaving out the the role of the MOE and the fact that polls have been quite wrong many times this election season. Technically, most polls do show that this race is "neck and neck" or a "tossup". Yes, the do consistently show Obama to be the one with the edge, but with the exception of a couple of outlying ones, most have not been solid, meaningful leads.

by Mayor McCheese on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:50:43 PM EST

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