MyDD :: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican

The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican

by Todd Beeton, Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 02:58:19 PM EST

For more than a month now, Barack Obama has maintained a several point lead in national presidential polls against John McCain and has held onto a substantial electoral college lead based on statewide polls, yet the media has insisted that it's been essentially a tied race. Now, however, it's getting harder to argue that the media's take is incorrect as polls begin to tighten and bear their analysis out (nationally, that is; Obama still wields an impressive advantage in the electoral college.)

Talking Points Memo breaks down the trend:

It's starting to look like the presidential race is narrowing once more. The latest Rasmussen tracking poll now has a nearly-tied race at Obama 47%, McCain 46%, the latest national poll showing the race to be practically even.

Rasmussen also registered a dead-even tie yesterday of 46%-46%, after Barack Obama had previously held a steady five-point lead for several weeks.

This is on top of the Newsweek poll from last week, which showed Obama's lead shrinking from 15 points to a mere three. The Gallup poll also has Obama up by three points.

Tracking polls are traditionally erratic, of course, but there's no denying that whereas Obama was up by 4, 5 & 6 points regularly as recently as 1 and 2 weeks ago, now his lead is in the 1, 2 and 3 point range. Pollster's trend estimate is also undeniable:

On the other hand, as Nate at 538.com reminds us, there's really not a whole lot of data to go on to conclude anything with any degree of certainty.

Obama lost another point in both Rasmussen (bringing the race to a true dead heat) and Gallup (where he retains a 3-point advantage). It's still not yet enough to convince our model that anything serious is going on. Part of what's going on here, by the way, is that we've really had very light polling volume over the past week or so -- the whole notion that Obama's numbers are tanking is really just based on two surveys (Newsweek and the Rasmussen tracker). We should know more soon enough.

But, personally, I hope it is. I hope the tightening we are seeing nationally is real, so Barack Obama might learn the lesson he should learn from the last two weeks: a Democrat sounding like a Republican, especially in 2008, is a losing strategy. Let's set aside the question of whether or not he is actually shifting his positions to the center as most voters now think he is, but just on its face, Obama is sounding more and more like a Republican. Whether it be on the DC handgun ban, on late term abortion, certainly on FISA and even on Iraq, his rhetorical shift is clear and if Obama's loss in support nationally is real, it should be seen as a direct result of this.

One of the arguments Obama supporters made for his candidacy throughout the primary was that independents LOVE Obama and they will never vote for Hillary Clinton, and I saw this dynamic among several independent friends and family members in my own life. I brought my brother, an independent, to a New Hampshire Obama rally in January and he had a level of excitement about Barack that I'd never seen him have about a Democrat. Thanks to Obama's FISA vote, however, that excitement is gone. So I have to wonder, as Obama sounds more and more like a Republican, I don't know what votes he's winning but I see many votes he is losing as he sends a distinct message to independents: if you thought I was a different kind of Democrat, you were wrong. This result from the Newsweek poll would seem to bear this disillusionment among independents out:

In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.

I'm not saying that the independents on the left are switching to McCain, but rather they are now either undecided, disengaging entirely or going to Nader. Obama can win them back, of course, and it is my hope that these poll numbers will send the message to the Obama campaign that he'd better start doing so now.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, barack obama, john mccain, polls (all tags)

Permalink :: 86 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

If this were a consequence of Obama sounding like a Republican, you would see Obama's numbers dropping and McCain's numbers staying steady. People who are disgusted with Obama for sounding too much like a Republican, if they stop supporting Obama, will sit out or vote Nader. They're not going to suddenly start supporting McCain, who--let's be honest--sounds a lot more like a Republican than Obama.

Sorry, the numbers just don't support your interpretation. It's the fickle nature of tracking polls, and that's all--this is why we have margins of error.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:03:22 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

But it's not just the tracking polls. Apart from a couple of polls that even the most ardent Obama fans here admitted looked a bit on the high side he's never got more than a lead of 6 or 7%. Now given that just about every poll shows over 80% of the country thinking were going in the wrong direction, Bush at around 29% for years, and a generic difference on regs of around 15% these are awful numbers. Now Obama's fans alway say nevery mind the quality feel the width and point to narrowing gaps in places like MS and ND which he's never going to win in a hundred years. This situation is what I have long feared. I was willing to wait a few weeks after he narrowly clinched the nomination but the picture seems to be getting worse. The total unwillingness of the Obama fans to even acknowledge there may be a problem against a candidate who is a disaster is bizarre. He needs to make a deal with Clinton fast and get this bus back on the highway.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (2.00 / 1)

Clinton never polled more than this either, and McCain isn't a disaster, he is still the maverick in many people's eyes, people who don't follow as closely as we do.

by Dog Chains on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

Then why are so many people on this site mainly Obama supporters btw saying McCain is a disaster as a candidate. You can't have it both ways.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

because we know his gaffes, and we're the same people who said Bush was a disaster (I even thought that against McCain in 2000) in 2000 and 2004, so take that part with a grain of salt. McCain plays well to certain people, regardless of what I think.

by Dog Chains on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

Why can't we have it both ways?

It never stopped a CLintonista before.

by GeeMan on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:45:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (2.00 / 2)

Obama is underperforming the generic polls, yes. He has been since the race began, and so was Clinton. It's got nothing to do with the strength of the Democratic candidate; it's because people still think that McCain is somehow less tied to the Republican party than he really is.

Wait till we've had a summer and a fall to pound the "McCain = Bush" narrative. His numbers will drop a bit, though he'll probably always outperform the generic polling.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

And what does a six or seven point lead constitute? Usually a 320+ Electoral College victory. Not too shabby.

At the end of the day, I'd rather have 290 Electoral College votes, 60 Senate Democrats, and 250 House Democrats than 370 Electoral College votes, 54 Senate Democrats, and 240 House Democrats. Every single vote counts.

by Brad G on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:57:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

I have one comment for Hillary:

Justsaynodeal.com

The problem is not the Democratic party per se, but the Democratic nominee. There will be no party unity because no one really wants it. Many Obama supporters believe that they can go it alone without Clinton supporters. A significant group of Clinton supporters are not willing to help the putative nominee, and personally, I don't blame them. In an election that should have been a slam dunk for the Democrats, the Democrats appear to be extending their losing streak.

I read that Obama does not want to have Hillary's name in a roll call vote at the Democratic convention. Now this is particularly insulting to many Clinton supporters since this primary race was a virtual tie, and this decision, besides being arrogant, is simply rude. What are they afraid of? Is it possible that a superdelegate vote would in August could actually hand the nomination to Hillary Clinton? I wouldn't blame the superdelegates for having second thoughts since Obama has already flipped on a handful of issues, and he hasn't even been elected yet! Is that arrogance or just plain stupidity? I question his character, judgment, and intelligence. I also wonder what the attraction was for him in the first place. I never had it, and I apparently never will. This is a fine mess you got us in, Obama voters.

by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding (none / 0)

Oh Hillary to the rescue?
IN your fantasy world she may be all things. But in the real world she would be just another drag on the ticket.

by GeeMan on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:46:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 2)

Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time

- Truman

Voters turn to McCain because they know what he is, a real Republican. So Obama, acting like a Republican, loses votes to the real Republican.

by souvarine on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:27:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nonsense (2.00 / 1)

A sizeable portion of the electorate has no idea who or what John McCain is. A lot of people, including a lot of the Clinton dead-enders on this site, think McCain is a moderate. Carly Fiorina thinks McCain is a moderate.

by BlueinColorado on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:41:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fiorina (none / 0)

Carly Fiorina works for the RNC and gave $2000 to Bush's re-election campaign. She doesn't really think McCain is a moderate, she's just reading her talking points.

by Hatch on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:10:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fiorina (none / 0)

You almost have to feel bad for former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who clearly believes she's working for a socially moderate presidential candidate when in actuality, she is, er, working for John McCain. Last week Fiorina said birth control pills should be covered by health insurers -- McCain disagrees. Now, as HuffPo reports, Fiorina is talking about "fully funding" No Child Left Behind, another policy McCain has voted against again and again.

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tappe d_archive?month=07&year=2008&bas e_name=another_carly_blooper

by BlueinColorado on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nonsense (none / 0)

Why do the Obamanauts insist on calling Clinton supporters dead enders. I'm a Clinton supporter but I'm going to vote for Obama. It's a sort of defense mechanism to account for the fact that at least in poll terms Obama is not doing so well.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:11:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nonsense (none / 0)

If you're voting for Obama, you're not a dead-ender.

If you're trolling around the internets whining about roll call votes in Denver, 'the super-delegates realizing their mistake', and that there is no difference between McCain and Obama, you're a dead-ender.

And I have seen all of those positions on this blog.

by BlueinColorado on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nonsense (none / 0)

exactly.

No one is suprised at the Clintonistas yelling the sky is falling at the first oppurtunity or the first hint of less than perfect news.They no doubt will be doing this throughout the campaign.

by GeeMan on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:49:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But people sitting out don't get counted in polls (none / 0)

So if Obama is turning people off, and they decide they're not going to vote, then McCain's poll numbers will increase relative to Obama's. Even though there aren't any more people supporting McCain, there are less people supporting Obama, and percentages still have to add up to 100, so McCain's percentage will rise.

Note, I'm not saying that this is what's happening - I don't know for sure on that score - but Obama turning off voters will cause McCain's poll numbers to rise.

by Angry White Democrat on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

To illustrate (2.00 / 1)

Say you have a poll of 1000 people. 500 support Obama, 400 support McCain, and 100 are undecided or for third-party candidates. That's 50% Obama, 40% McCain, 10% undecided or other.

Now let's say that Obama turns off 20% of his base. That equates to 100 people in the poll. So in the next poll, they say they're not going to vote and don't get counted. That means they have to poll another 100 people to make up the difference, and to keep things simple we'll say they break according to the initial poll - 50%-40%-10%.

So in the new poll, 450 people support Obama, 440 support McCain, and 110 are undecided or other. That's 45% Obama, 44% McCain, 11% undecided or other.

Even though none of the Obama supporters switched to McCain, his percentage still went up.

by Angry White Democrat on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But people sitting out don't get counted in po (none / 0)

"Obama can win them back of course..."

There's no evidence of people who move away coming back again. I think that if you make that decision it is difficult to reverse. I think your best hope is the people who haven't yet decided.

by ellend818 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There's no deader love than an Obama dead love! (none / 0)

by suzieg on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 05:45:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I guess I would disagree with Todd's Evidence,... (none / 0)

...not his conclusion.

I believe Todd that Obama continues to hold a slight lead, as evidenced by Gallup.

I believe the question Todd is really asking is: why is this lead not bigger?

I agree with Todd that playing one's Republican cards hurts you in this anti-Republican atmosphere. But I also don't believe for a second that this is how Obama plans to run the general election. Obama sees the same numbers we do.

My theory was always that Obama would play his Republican cards early to nullify McCain's attempts to define him as an uber-liberal, and then, when Obama has the aura of being legitimate on issues, play your liberal cards and rally the base.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:17:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A (2.00 / 1)

You hope the race is tightening? I'm glad our collective confidence is so high that we can afford to meddle with our lead.

by rfahey22 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:05:57 PM EST

Reading too much in polls this far out! (2.00 / 1)

Is my humble opinion.

by ann0nymous on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:06:07 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 2)

As an aside, the media has been doing its part to ignore McCain's flip-flopping and focus on Obama's. This is not an accident. They want a horse race all the way until November, no matter the consequences for this nation. If McCain got half the coverage Obama does, this election would be over already.

Having said that, Obama has done plenty to shoot himself in the foot. I find this surprising, given the excellent political judgment he showed during the primaries. His base has been de-energized, and he is losing independents.

If you don't act like an independent, independents won't support you. Obama needs to stop the John Kerry act and get back to his strengths, or he'll face a much more challenging second half.

by Covin on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:06:52 PM EST

Seems more like pundit's fallacy (2.00 / 2)

than a clear case for causation.

by JJE on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:09:20 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 2)

From your analysis, Obama must have been REALLY sounding like a Republican a few months ago, back when McCain had a lead on pollster. What where the Republican things he was saying back then?

I voted for Hillary!

by deepee on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:12:58 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

Without voicing support or disagreement with Todd, I just wanted to note that what you sad is an inherently illogical statement. When I say Illogical in this context I don't mean "You are wrong because of your point."

I mean, the logic within your statement is incorrect.

Todd said, basically..

"Because Obama is sounding like a republican, his numbers are dropping."

You are now taking that statement to mean

"When Obama's numbers drop, then he is sounding like a republican."

These statements are not implicit. For example..

"Because it is a square, it is a quadrilateral"

does not imply

"Because it is a quadrilateral, it is a square."

I understand you may have just meant to be snarky, but you might be surprised how many people actually think

A->B also implies B->A.

by mrrara on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:32:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Look at the Newsweek polls' tabs (2.00 / 2)

In the first (15% lead), they had almost twice as many Dems in their sample as Repubs.
In the second (3% lead), they had the same number of Dems and Repubs.
This, obviously, is the reason for the supposed "tightening."
If the samples were reversed, I suppose your story line would be "Obama shift to center pays dividends."
It would be as wrong as your current diary.

by DaveG on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:13:38 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

I'm sure that the Democratic Party is really going to change their nominee after the primaries due to a slight tightening of the lead in the polls. Because, you know, there's no way that making that swap would cause any sort of problem.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:15:19 PM EST

Geeze (1.00 / 1)

You guys just lie in wait, don't you?

Stop H8

by mikeinsf on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:16:42 PM EST

If this is the same gotalife (1.75 / 4)

from TPM, it's just a McTroll.

by JJE on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If this is the same gotalife (none / 0)

This is what I was referring to. It's my understanding that Mydd is for all Democrats.

by soyousay on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Assumes facts (2.00 / 1)

not in evidence.

by JJE on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:39:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If this is the same gotalife (none / 0)

Zell Miller, even.

Stop H8

by mikeinsf on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:16:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I only see a straight line (2.00 / 1)

It has been within the margin of error, or nearly so, the whole time.

This has nothing to do with Obama "sounding like a Republican" and everything to do with the fact that it's simply always been a tight race, especially with McCain's gaffes finding little purchase with the media.

You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:16:50 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

The more people know about Obama, the less likely they are to vote for him. In a nutshell.

by Marjoriest on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:21:00 PM EST

Funny (2.00 / 3)

The exact opposite was true in the primary.

You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:24:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 2)

Really?

Cause as far as I can tell, Obama supporters know a lot more about him than his detractors do.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That makes sense (2.00 / 1)

it surely explains why he was polling in the 20s in the Dem primary a year ago and yet somehow managed to win it.

Your theory is certainly nuts. No shell though.

by JJE on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 2)

Congrats! This is one of the dumbests thing I have ever read on mydd.com, and that is saying a lot with all the take my ball and go home Clinton supporters there are here.

Why was Obama polling less than Clinton in about every demographic back in October 2007?

I voted for Hillary!

by deepee on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:29:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

If you are going to say 'dumbest', please spell it correctly! :0)

Obama's popularity peaked in February or March. After that time Hillary won most of the states, and Obama's numbers haven't grown. Where he should have gained hugely when he 'won' the primary, the couple of percentage points he gained then have gone.
Look at the enthusiasm for him now. Even on DKos they are not showing enthusiasm - it is more of a 'hold your nose and vote Dem'.
So often the blogs say - he's the lesser of two evils..... McCain is WORSE. Lots of enthusiasm there.

One thing about Hillary - the more people saw of her the better the liked her and the more respect she got.

by Marjoriest on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:01:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

The more I have read about and heard from Barack Obama the greater my respect for the man has become. While the more I learn of Hillary Clinton's heavy reliance on Mark Penn (acolyte of Dick Morris) and Bill Clinton and the turmoil within her campaign staff, the more my respect has diminished.

And I did start out predicting her win even though I was hoping for an Edwards victory.

So, whereas your claim about people not liking Barack the more they know about him may apply to yourself, it doesn't apply to many others.

by Susan from 29 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Another anti-Obama group is formed: (none / 0)

irregulartimes.com:

Progressives Against Obama? Yes, It's For Real.
Filed under Activism, Barack Obama, Election 2008, Liberal Links by jclifford at 12:02 pm

Who ever thought that we would see the day when progressive voters would organize against the presidential campaign Barack Obama? That day has arrived.

A month ago, who could have predicted that a triangulating Obama would come out in favor of George W. Bush's faith-based initiatives scheme, the death penalty, warrantless government spying, and staying in Iraq?

So, over at Progressives Against Obama, they're doing the only thing that makes sense: They're encouraging voters to apply grassroots pressure to educate Barack Obama about what happens when the candidate of "hope" and "change" breaks his promises and delivers progressive voters right back into the politics of fear.

Progressives Against Obama advises,

"There is an old story about a scorpion who asks a frog for a ride across a river, assuring the frog that he would never sting him, because to do so would be to kill them both. When the frog reaches the other side with the scorpion on his back, the scorpion stings him anyway, because it is in his nature.

Progressives have seen the nature of Barack Obama. They have been stung by him already, and are not willing to carry him to victory just so that they can get stung again. Obama has broken his promises, and he no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Now is the time to put serious pressure on Barack Obama. After the election, progressives will have no leverage. Now is the time to speak out, precisely because it is so inconvenient for Obama's campaign that we do so."

Check the July 3rd video asking to send 2 cents to Obama which is the only change worth contributing - just beautiful!

by suzieg on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 05:57:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A (none / 0)

Obama never did particularly well among general election independents. That's yet another myth sold us about his electability (along with the notion that Obama -- and Obama alone -- was responsible for the vast in increase in participation in this year's primaries). He did well among Democratic primary independents, but that's a completely different group. Dem primary indies are progressives who likely left the Democratic party quite recently. General election indies are more of the classic, low information, don't give a shit about politics types. He never did particularly well, or in any case better than McCain, with them. That's McCain's stronghold.

by ColoradoGuy on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:22:45 PM EST

"Idependent" is a myth (2.00 / 1)

The true general election independent is a myth. The truth is voters have a proclivity to come down on one side or the other. You also have to take into account how many independents are former Republicans who stopped calling themsleves that after it was obvious what a failure Bush is. What are the odds that a white male "idependent" from Alabama will vote for Obama anyway?

by RandyMI on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

It wouldn't be a problem for Obama sounding like a republican if he started out sounding like one; he didn't.

by soyousay on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:36:08 PM EST

Reposted for the umpteenth time..... (2.00 / 4)

How many times does it have to be shown that Obama's positions now are consistent with where they've been all along?

And why are so many Concern Democrats so eager to repeat the wedge talking points put out by the GOP about Obama shifting, when he clearly hasn't?

During the primaries the national polls were constantly fluctuating between an advantage for Obama, Clinton, or McBush. It's simply idiotic to now attribute the ongoing fluctuations to some mythical shift to the center by Obama.

"Sounding like a Republican?" Why has MyDD become a platform for attacking the Democratic nominee? Call it MyPUMA instead.

by Beren on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:39:51 PM EST

Re: Because they don't want (none / 0)

It wasn't, and isn't, Obama nor his campaign who have mirespresented him.

I understand why the Pubes and their corporate newz service do it, but I don't understand why people who represent themselves as Democrats misrepresent their own party's nominee.

by Beren on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 06:35:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I didn't mean his campaign (none / 0)

How do you know what other people think or how much they know about Obama? Democrats chose Obama to be their nominee with just as much information about him (or more, considering the intense scrutiny he's received) than any of the others.

As for getting booted from kos, I got booted from there for criticizing Obama before he even announced his candidacy.

I don't link candidates and supporters, as too many are wont to do.

by Beren on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 08:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They obviously didn't know enough (none / 0)

Obama has remained true to the positions he's held all along. If you don't like them that's your business

Those who say he's changed are mindlessly repeating a GOP slur which can only hurt their own country, party, and self interests.

As for his supporters, if you obsess on them and let your opinions of Obama be formed by your opinions of them, then you are a very poor example of "informed electorate."

by Beren on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 10:00:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm agreeing with you (none / 0)

I've never cared what others have characterized Obama to be, liberal or center, except when it involved a falsehood.

The funny thing is, last year at this time I was defending Hillary from what I thought were untrue attacks or those directed at her through Bill (seemingly from GOP sources who considered her the sure nominee). It was only when her surrogate Bob Kerrey started with the slurs about Obama's name and the madrassa garbage that I started defending him. Then it snowballed with Shaheen, Cuomo, Bill Clinton, Ferraro, Rendell, and finally Hillary herself making racially oriented comments so that I became a staunch defender.

Now I find myself constantly forced to refute lies and mischaracterizations emanating from the GOP, and a bitter gaggle of Hillarynuts who want Obama to lose -- partly out of revenge, and partly in the fool's hope that Hillary will rise again like the South in 2012.

Maybe if I wasn't so busy taking out the trash continuously I could find time for the luxury of nitpicking Obama's every nuance and splitting hairs as to his liberality or centrism as some amuse themselves doing.

by Beren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 02:24:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I didn't mean his campaign (none / 0)

As for getting booted from kos, I got booted from there for criticizing Obama before he even announced his candidacy.

I don't link candidates and supporters, as too many are wont to do.

by Beren on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 08:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this is why - look up (none / 0)

www.formerobamasupporters.com/page/2 and look for the title of the video: FISA flip-flop? send Obama your two cents

This man is not a progressive political hack!

by suzieg on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 06:14:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

send Obama your two cents (none / 0)

I have no use for GOP lies and talking points.

I'm saving up for a big contribution to Obama this fall.

by Beren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:08:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Be careful (2.00 / 1)

It's a tendancy of groups to assign their grievances to why a candidate's lead is "slipping". By the way, a new poll out today gives Obama a healthy lead in Michigan.

by RandyMI on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:44:40 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

Come on, Todd, you're smarter than that. 1. You're basing a lot of this on a Newsweek poll that had him up 15 a few weeks ago, and "only" has him up 3 now. Newsweek is teh suck, as are many national tracking polls 2. It's JULY. Nobody's engaged in the election right now, which makes most of the statistics being passed around complete bunk. Look at the stats from Alexa - traffic on EVERY prominent site, Democratic or Republican has plummeted. There's just not that much interest in ANY kind of politics right now, which is going to make it that much harder to gauge what the race is going to end up like when people ARE interested. Obama probably won't have raised very much money this month, either. That won't be a "consequence of sounding like a Republican" it will be an effect of lowered interest in the race right now. Obama has hemorrhaged a little bit of support because of FISA, but there are three and a half months of messaging and motivation to regain that and more. 3. Say it with me, everyone: THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A NATIONAL ELECTION Stop looking at national numbers and start looking at the state-by-state results (fivethirtyeight.com is always a great place to start). There simply isn't a lot of movement anywhere that would indicate significant movement. Come on, people, we're smarter than this

UNITY!

by The Great Gatsby on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:49:59 PM EST

State Results Follow National Results (none / 0)

So the national polls are relevant, although with Obama leading in all the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, and Ohio and Virgnia also leaning slightly his way, I think Obama can win the electoral vote even if he is even or a little behind in the popular vote.

by Davidsfr on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:56:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

Another explanation for what's going on, of course, is that indies have just tuned out the election (because not much is going on), they'll pick up interest again around the time of the conventions, and there isn't much Obama can do right now to generate excitement during the doldrums of the summer months.

Here's the problem I have with the argument that indies are going into the undecided column because of Obama's vote on FISA (or, more broadly, this allegation that he's tacked to the center).

Indies aren't Democrats. If they cared about these issues the way many Dems do, they'd become Democrats. Obama's numbers among Dems during the past month, frankly, have improved faster than they would (he and McCain are now basically in the same situation when it comes to defections and so on).

What's interesting during this whole cycle is the large number of voters who are in the undecided column (and we probably won't know what that's about until the election is over).

by IncognitoErgoSum on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:50:42 PM EST

I Beg To Differ (2.00 / 1)

Just because Obama is being accused of moving right and "sounding like a Republican" by all of the beltway blowhards does not make it true. FISA was a legitimate shift. But there is has been NO rhetorical shift on Iraq whatsoever, and I can't believe you're parroting that malarkey.

In 2000 Karl Rove must have been paying very close attention to people like Michael Moore, who were going around telling people that there was no difference between Bush and Gore. The GOP strategy right now seems to be to lure the press into selling that false idea to voters. The fact that otherwise respectable bloggers on the left are falling for the ploy is totally baffling to me.

by Hatch on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:50:49 PM EST

The love affair is over .... (none / 0)

www.counterpunch.com/whitney07112008.htm l:

Delusions about Obama

excerpt:

But don't be fooled, Obama could turn out to be worse than McCain, much worse. No one doubts that he is brighter and more charismatic than the irritating senator from Arizona. And no one underestimates his Pied Piper ability to galvanize crowds and stir up national pride. But what good is that? Obama works for the same group of venal plutocrats as Bush; a fact that was made painfully clear just last week when he voted to approve the new FISA bill that allows the president to continue spying on American citizens with impunity. Obama is a constitutional scholar; he understood what he was voting for. He was sending a message to his supporters that they don't really matter; that what really counts is the small gaggle of powerful corporatists who run the country and believe the president is above the law. That's what his vote really meant.

So, why vote for him? We don't need a glamor boy to trash the Bill of Rights. And we don't need another paper-mache president who tries to conceal America's war crimes behind stuffy-sounding pronouncements about "Islamofacism" and other terrorist mumbo-jumbo. What we need is someone with enough guts and moral fiber to shake up the political establishment, put an end to the wars and covert operations, and clean up Wall Street

And to think (2.00 / 1)

There are some here who want Obama to flip on off-shore oil drilling.

by RandyMI on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:52:41 PM EST

Frontpage Schizophrenia (2.00 / 1)

I love it, we've got one front page post warning Obama will lose unless he explicitly adopts a Republican policy, followed immediately by one that warns Obama will lose because people on the left believe--falsely--that he's adopting Republican policies. Talk about mixed messages...

by Hatch on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Frontpage Schizophrenia (none / 0)

This has confused me to absolutely no end.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

Todd. Usually enjoy your posts, but this one has the sound of water skis whooshing over shark fins.

You apply a causality in your title, without even a question mark. The logical fallacies are too obvious:

1. Did Obama sound like a republican?
2. Is the margin of error noise consequent on that?

But what dispirits me more is the American liberal tendency to call 'betrayed' before the fight is even engaged. On the liberal left defeatism is so engrained in the US, everyone wants to get their retaliatory schadenfreunde in early.

by duende on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:53:22 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (2.00 / 1)

Silly Obama! Natural fluctuation in tracking polls means you should agree with me more!

Next week: I'm out of milk. Obama's numbers tank. Coincidence?

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 03:59:29 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

Exactly. Not that your going to get the Obamanauts to admit it. I'm a Clintonite but had no problem supporting Obama but these numbers are not good and they concern me. That of course make me a concern troll.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:14:04 PM EST

Facts? (none / 0)

It must be a strange world where you can assume a counterfactual and call it "the facts".

by JJE on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:22:01 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

The War has gone better than anyone could have imagined a year ago and a steady withdrawal is occuring without an American defeat.

The War Against Employment is going well. The War Against the Middle Class is quite splendid. The occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, on the other hand, are going pretty badly.

by redwagon on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:24:00 PM EST

Y'know (2.00 / 1)

This is a campaign that just pulled off one of the biggest upsets in modern political history, and now we have the audacity to question at this moment their campaign tactics? I think these people know what they are doing.

Also, on Iraq, Barack Obama has said time and again that "we should be as careful getting out as careless as we were getting in." How is that any different from his position today?

Suppose conditions have changed when he visits Iraq next week. Would you expect him to maintain an inflexible 16 month deadline? How would that have gone over with the American public?

How has Barack Obama's position on abortion changed?

On FISA, did you honestly think there were 41 votes against cloture on the bill? Suppose Barack Obama had not reneged on his pledge to filibuster the bill, and could not convince enough Senators to support a filibuster. What would that have said about Barack Obama's leadership qualities.

More important, when we have 150,000 troops in Iraq, 420,000 lost jobs the past six months, and 45 million Americans without health insurance, who the hell besides us crybaby quixotic bloggers really cares about FISA? Who cares about campaign finance? Gun control? Do any of these issues honestly come even remotely close to the Iraq War, the economy, global warming, or the uninsured? Let's act like grown-ups for once.

by Brad G on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:31:07 PM EST

Re: Y'know (none / 0)

I had jury duty this morning, and while waiting I had a very interesting conversation with an 18 year old high school graduate that was working two minimum wage jobs just to pay rent, food and gasoline. I can assure you she has no idea what FISA is.

But, she did think that McCain would not be able to win, which is an unusual statement coming from the daughter of a newly retired Marine NCO in a very red part of a blue state. She would rather vote for Hillary, not because she knew anything about policy, but because she questioned this country's ability to elect an African American and to protect his life if they did.

She is a pretty typical low info voter concerned about high gas prices who pointed out the real elephant in the room. Is this country ready to elect an African American, and if we do, will we be able to insure he survives?

(We also have to address the idea that offshore oil drilling will help lower prices. Bumper stickers are already appearing locally calling for drilling.)

by Susan from 29 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:44:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Y'know (none / 0)

Actually I don't think this is about FISA except at the margins. It's about continuing discontent amongst the Clinton fans in the Democratic and indie segments, and also a general uneasiness about Obama among a lot of dems or dem leaning indies. Forget the Repubs they were never going to vote for him or Clinton despite all the hyperbole from Obama fans. Given the political landscape for our candidate to be level to six points ahead depending on how enthusiastic you are is abysmal whatever the Obamanauts say. It's bad. They can rationalize all they like but it don't alter the reality.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 05:00:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good Grief! (none / 0)

This sounds like it could have been written by any one of a number of the MSM. The same ones who were all excited about the earlier Newsweek Poll showing him up by 15 points. More drama means more people turning into the cable news programs.

I've been watching the Gallup National Poll data and they have shown a consistent 3 to 6 point spread. And this was before he was accused of talking like a Republican.

And to those who do believe he is talking like a Republican, I suggest they listen a little closer.

by Susan from 29 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:32:55 PM EST

Todd I used to think you were (none / 0)

better than this. But the logical fallacy in this post is very astounding.

by SocialDem on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:56:51 PM EST

Re: Todd I used to think you were (none / 0)

Why don't you explain the logical fallacy? Since it escapes dumbos like me.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 05:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Assumption with no basis (none / 0)

of factual evidence. Then using an opinion as fact. That is logical fallacy. If I need to spell it out for you than my discussion with you is frankly done. If you can't comprehend the english language and be able to analyze arguments than what are you doing on a political website anyways?

by SocialDem on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 07:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Newsweek poll is way off (none / 0)

I wouldn't worry about it.

by puma on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 04:58:20 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

hmmm
Anyone know of any data concerning voters are are cell phone only? It is my understanding this group is left out of the polling process?

As for sounding like a Republican...
Obama does not sound like any Republican I know.
For sure he does not sound like any elected Republican in Colorado.

You all piss it away in your State if you want.
Colorado Dems will be sending electoral votes to Obama...adding a Dem Senator and defeating Musgrave.

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 05:02:25 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

Sounding like a Republican..

Soo Republicans are for ending discrimination in the military? Like Obama
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics /2008/04/11/2008-04-11_obama_ill_end_don task_donttell-1.html

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 05:16:49 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

As an Obama supporter I agree with many points, I would even suggest that if Hillary didn't vote for AUMF, she would have had the Nomination sealed after Feb 5th.
I strongly disagree that she would have a large lead. She would have energized the currently apathetic Republican party to fight. All the republicans I know are not voting this year. All of these people would vote McCain if Hillary is on the ticket (either top/bottom); the Clinton's pheremones drives the Repubs crazy, lots of Clenis envy. I also don't think she has the coatails like Obama as she is inherently repellant to those outside of the Dem party (whereas indys and former repubs don't mind switching to Obama)

My views are changing about a joint ticket. I am mainly opposed to the jt ticket because of HRC's CiC comments about Obama and McCain...real stupid. However, there is so much going on that this point may have seemed like a bullet then, really the political attention span is about 1 day (thanks MSM) and most of the people that would buy into that statement to not vote Obama/Clinton, would never have voted Democrat anyway.

by KLRinLA on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 05:27:14 PM EST

OR (none / 0)

The consequences of both the Democrats and Republicans attacking you.

Feel free to take Obama to task for things you don't like that he does, but don't be surprised if it affects his polling.

by ChrisKaty on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 05:29:48 PM EST

Re: The Consequences of Sounding Like A Republican (none / 0)

The media has framed this as a close race. Its better for the race to seem close so that people watch the news so that advertisers pay more money so that shareholder value increases. This will not be a close race. Obama will win in a landslide. None of the daily tracking polls can counteract the momentum which started building in January. Democratic voter registration completely overwhelmed Republican voter registration. Short of a scandal, Obama wins easily.

That said, Obama did make a tactical error by overplaying the centrist approach.

by agpc on Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 07:24:37 PM EST

you want a close race to 'teach him a lesson'? (none / 0)

yeah that's smart.

right up there with letting you kids play with guns so they can learn why gun safety is a must

-7.33, -3.35 The song that best describes life

by drache on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:37:28 AM EST

After the Obama betrayal (none / 0)

www.counterpunch.com/kafoury07122008.htm l

Will Progressives Go Gently Into Another Political Night?

After the Obama Betrayal
By GREGORY KAFOURY

From The New York Times to The Huffington Post, from Counterpunch.org to The Nation, the outcry is the same: Obama is not the man he presented himself to be.

As he now panders to seemingly any right-wing group that can fill a room, his staff is arranging fundraisers where the cover charge is $30,000. Bob Herbert of the NYT echos the "disillusion" of "many of Obama's strongest supporters who are uneasy, upset, dismayed and even angry."

Across the progressive spectrum, the consensus is that Obama has abandoned any prospect for a transformational presidency, breathed life into a moribund and discredited right-wing, and incomprehensibly placed his very election at risk.

Most crucially, Obama has made the utterly cynical calculation that there is no price to be paid for abandoning his base, that the mantra of Anybody But Bush seamlessly melds into Anybody But McCain, that progressives will simply surrender.