A little sign that Ohio is gonna go our way this November?

Right after the Ohio Democratic Primaries ended, I remember watching the talking heads on both CNN and MSNBC (I refuse to watch Faux News for electoral coverage).  As everyone knows, Hillary Clinton won that state with 54% of the vote.  The talking heads went on to say how if Hillary didn't get the nomination, that the blue-collar hard hats (sometimes known as "Reagan Democrats") would go for John McCain.  And of course, Pat Buchanan, politics' Archie Bunker, said it was inconceivable that blue-collar workers would vote for Obama in November. On CNN, you had one of Hillary's supporters, Lanny Davis saying Ohio was much in doubt should Barack take the nomination.

Well..pretty scary predictions. Oh ok, not really scary, but it did raise an eyebrow or two.  If Ohio was the land of Reagan Democrats, this could have spelled trouble for the Democratic Party in the November General Election.  Last, but not least, any discontent could have opened the door to electoral shenanigans.  In the 2004 election, Bush had won the Buckeye State by a slim margin, amidst reports of voting irregularities.  To this day, I wish Kerry didn't concede that state to 'W'.  

Fast forward to today, er wait last weekend, during that whole Unity day thingamajig with Senators Clinton and Obama.  The Financial Times reported that while the Democratic dynamic duo were doing their thing to bring the party together, the member of the Lord Voldemort Appreciation Society (AKA the Republicans) were doing what they do best, try and ruin things.  Ambling in on that mislabeled "Straight Talk Express", McCain talked to a group of GM workers hoping to expand a perceived divide between this faction of Democratic voters.

McCain figures that there is a sea of disappointment that Hillary didn't win, or perhaps that Edwards didn't have a second chance either.  We all saw the news reports of groups of females or some union folks who either supported either Clinton or Edwards in the primaries, saying they won't vote for Barack.  And McCain and company have been trying to woo Hillary voters, making gestures like speaking out on helping the famed New York senator with her campaign debt.  But alas, if the FT is telling the truth (and they probably are), his little haunt in Ohio may leave the Grand Old Prostate in a disappointment.

Three hours after John McCain's campaign bus left General Motors' plant in Lordstown, Ohio, workers started streaming in and out of the factory's gates for the mid-afternoon shift change.

Only a fraction had caught a glimpse of the Republican presidential candidate when he toured the production line and still fewer attended the meeting he held in an adjacent conference room. "Management invited him," said 38-year-old Tim Niles. "It had nothing to do with us. We're with Obama."

Mr Niles, a white, working-class Democrat who wears a "Bubba's Army" T-shirt, is exactly the kind of voter Mr McCain was courting on his trip to northern Ohio on Friday. On the day Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton staged their first joint rally, Mr McCain was trying to undermine their reconciliation by wooing Mrs Clinton's blue-collar base.

His efforts appeared wasted on many. "We're a working-class factory," said 49-year-old Greg George. "McCain calls himself moderate, but his party has been a disaster for working people over the past eight years."

- excerpt from "Workers reject McCain overture", FT.com, 2008

Of course, this doesn't mean that McCain's chances with this group is totally unatainable.  As the Financial Times article noted, a significant number polled didn't exactly endorse Obama at the moment.  And it is estimated that a quarter of Clinton's supporters in the state have said they would vote for John Airbus McCain.

Given all this, we have several months until that fateful political day.  A lot can happen.  A lot can change.  Things could go well for us or it could go worse for us.  I'm hoping, that when the debates come, that many of these good blue-collar folk who are either on the fence still or right now supporting The Man Who Ate Cake While Katrina drowned, will come back home to the Democratic Party.  The Republican Party in reality offers these hard working group nothing but empty promises.  Sure you could say that about all politicians.  But really, when it comes down to it, for the working mother and father, which candidate is more akin to watching your back against the forces of globalization?


Poll
Will the majority Ohio's blue-collar workers turn out for Obama this November?
Yes, when they see that John McCain is another free-trading bastard, they will
No, for them, despite the economy, they want to go with the whole security thing

Votes: 13
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


One article does not mean anything (none / 0)

alone. The polls will tell more of a story for the election than will some article which chronicles a few people. This cannot be seen as some sign or anything. Read Survey USA's poll. Its not looking good there for him with hispanics, and its within the margin of error.


by Lakrosse on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:24:53 PM EST

Re: One article does not mean anything (none / 0)

I'd absolutely love to see Obama take Ohio in the fall.  But even without OH, he can win if he sweeps MI, NH, CO, IA, NM.  All of these appear attainable at the moment.


by the mollusk on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:28:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One article does not mean anything (none / 0)

If he loses both michigan and Ohio, he has lost. Winning all three Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado is not gonna be a very easy task, especially if he's losing Michigan, a state which has gone Democrat each of the last 4 elections.


by Lakrosse on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A little sign that Ohio (none / 0)

I'm not too sure about Ohio, it's definitely a swing-state, and I think McCain will gain momentum in Appalachia/northern states.

NM is firmly in the blue column though and it will stay these, Colarado too.

heck, I think Ohio and Virginia will be the two biggest states this election. I personally think McCain will pick Pawalty(sp?) as VP candidate.


by Jaz on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:35:27 PM EST

Please let him pick Pawlenty (2.00 / 1)

I want the opportunity to vote against him again.  Minnesotans aren't all that pleased with him; he only won with 46% of the vote.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:39:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm opposed to any strategy... (2.00 / 1)

...that relies on us taking Ohio or Florida.

If we get those states, fantastic, but I'll be snookered if we put all our eggs into one of those two baskets again.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:38:52 PM EST

Re: A little sign that Ohio is gonna go our way th (none / 0)

Recent Polls and using RealClearPolitics averages not a single poll.

Ohio - Obama +4
MI - Obama +2
PA - Obama +7
Fl _ McCain +4.7

And as always the disclaimer: It's July and polls today are somewhat meaningless at projecting what voters will do in November. But it's still fun to play.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 01:19:27 PM EST


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