VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GOP

Over the weekend, former Virginia Governor and flameout 2008 presidential candidate Jim Gilmore eked out an underwhelming victory with a margin of just over a half a percentage point over a largely unknown opponent to secure the Republican Senate nomination in the commonwealth. As if that were not indication enough that the GOP base isn't coming together behind Gilmore, The Hill reports that some of the big local Republican players are shying away from making endorsements as well.

Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) is avoiding an endorsement in the closely watched Senate contest to succeed him, so far declining to support fellow Republican Jim Gilmore several days after the former Virginia governor clinched the GOP nomination.

Warner, 81, who announced last September he will retire when his fifth term ends in January, twice shunned inquiries about his stance in the race, directing reporters to a statement that his press office said is not forthcoming.

"I'm not going to keep answering this question about Gilmore," Warner said. "I'll get my press office to send you a statement."
Warner's communications staff said no statement has been released and that there is no specific timetable for one.

A sitting senator resisting to back the party's choice to succeed him would be extraordinary in itself, but Warner's seat also is a top target for Democrats next year looking to increase its majority in the Senate.

The Hill also cites Congressman Tom Davis, who is retiring in Northern Virginia this year and who was expected to run for the Senate before Gilmore jumped in the race, as another key pol unwilling to officially endorse at this juncture.

To an extent, this is a moot point. The Democratic nominee, former Governor Mark Warner, is remarkably popular in the state. Current polling puts the Democratic Warner up a solid 18-points over GIlmore in a head-to-head. Nonetheless, it's never a good thing for a party to be this divided and this unprepared heading into a key Senate election, one in a state that has at least a bit of a lean in their direction. And given the current state of affairs, it looks like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is not going to need to invest much, if any, resources to Virginia this cycle -- freeing up cash to go to states like Mississippi, Alaska, North Carolina and others, increasing the likelihood of big gains come November.



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Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

hahahahahahahaha!  I am LOVING this year!

My main goal is to oust Mitch McConnell, but taking Warner's seat over would be cool too....


"If you ever post anything on that website again, I will shove a motherboard so far up your a$$...!" C.J Cregg
by JenKinFLA on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 08:24:17 AM EST

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

The key is Warner's appeal in South West Virginia.  Back in 2001 when he ran and won the governorship he placed a major focus on appealing to rural votes.  If Obama can replicate this approach he gets elected. Hell if Warner was asked to join the ticket, there is NO WAY Obama would loose VA.


by nzubechukwu on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 08:26:13 AM EST

Great Time to be a Democrat. (none / 0)

Just wondering if we might see some Republicans put an (I) next to their name, and start praising Obama.  Knowing they will get alot of publicity out of it, and maybe be able to cut a deal like Lieberman.


Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. ~ Sun Tzu
by Tumult on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 08:28:16 AM EST

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore (2.00 / 1)

For anyone who doesn't know, Jim Gilmore is an asshat of epic proportions.  He ran for governor on the essentially single platform of doing away with the car tax (i.e., automobile property taxes).  It was base demagoguery and left the state and localities in debt, and everyone knows it.  Mark Warner followed him and cleaned up his mess, running and acting as a fiscally responsible moderate.  Gilmore is going to get totally clobbered.  

The fact that Tom Davis didn't run for John Warner's seat is happy proof that wingnuts control the Old Dominion's Republican party.  I don't think Davis would have stood much of a chance against Warner, but now this race will be a cakewalk.  When you're counting possible Senate pickups, but this one in the Lead Pipe Cinch column.

The only thing that could shake up the dynamics here would be Warner's being tapped as Obama's running mate, but I doubt that will happen.


by deminva on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 08:48:36 AM EST

Get used to it (none / 0)

The GOP is in free-fall.

Listening to Hannity last night while driving around, he went from attempted Obama-bashing into McCain Despair mode in about two minutes.

A record for him.

The best thing the Right Wing Radio can say is that "if McCain doesn't do this and that, we're in for a total meltdown".

:~)

-chris


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 09:15:45 AM EST

Re: Get used to it (none / 0)

Listening to Hannity last night was indeed a pleasure.

His explanation for the downfall of the GOP?

"They have forgotten their Reagan Conservative principles, and the GOP is just not Conservative enough."

Classical wingnuttery:  They find themselves in a deep hole, and Hannity's explanation is simple:  the shovel wasn't big enough.

I am purely LOVIN' it.


by dembluestates on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 10:04:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Warren Buffet (none / 0)

"The first thing to do when you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging."

I am not anti-Republican by nature, but the GOP has followed a path with no outlet and now is at the dead-end.  There is simply no 'there' there, and no place to go from where they are.

Fortunately for the balanced dynamic of American, in a number of years the GOP will remake itself into something more "conservative" by positive definitions and less Extremist.  Honest, decent Conservative values imo are Caution and  Thoughtfulness.  What the current GOP has defined itself by - more evey year - is small-mindedness and extreme Christianity.

We need the Cautious to balance the Enthusiastic.  I wish the GOP luck in rediscovering that so they can get back to representing actual American values.


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 10:36:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (2.00 / 1)

Virginia's national congressional delegation to the next congress will be 2 Democratic senators and probably 6 (out of 11) Democratic congressional representatives.

The 11th district is a very likely pickup.
No current Democratic incumbents are in danger.
There will be two very hot contests in the 2nd and 10th districts, but they will both flip to Democrats because of Warner and Obama being on the ticket in other offices and because we are in a Democratic tidal wave, especially against do-nothing, vote-with-Bush-all-the-time incumbents like Drake and Wolf.

Virginia is going to be close for President this year.

The question is - will that help in the a couple more districts too!


by snolan on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 09:33:27 AM EST

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

Unless Obama picks a Hillary or Mark Warner or even a Jim Webb, VA is going to McCain in the Fall by 3-4 points.

Too many present and ex-military and bubbas there for Obama alone to overcome.


by dembluestates on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 10:07:54 AM EST

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

Given the climate there .. what makes you think they'll all come out to vote for McCain?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 11:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

The GOP still has a powerful, world-class, state-of-the-art message and media machine.  Don't underestimate them, they have owned the South for decades now.

If they had chosen to launch into the anti-Obama, anti-Rev. Wright crusade in November or December, I think you'll agree Obama never gets past Iowa and never makes it to June.

Right now, they are looking forward to continuing to paint Obama as anti-American, a Black racist elitist, unpatriotic, the most Liberal of all the Senators (to the left of Hillary and Ted Kennedy!), a true  raise-your-taxes-and-spend-it-in-t he ghettoer, a Marxist radical like his friend and mentor Bill Ayers, and a pro-illegal alien, pro-open borders, pro-UN, pro-Israel  politician who likes and wants to have talks with Fidel Castro, Ahmadinejad, and Hugo Chavez.  Whew!  There, I think I covered most of it, but there will be more.

He is all their favorite targets rolled into one, and I think they will be successful not so much in driving a pro-McCain surge to the polls, but rather in driving a huge swell of anti-Obama sentiment to the polls in the South and in the swing states.


by dembluestates on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this suggests that (none / 0)

There's a shot at the seat even if Warner moves to the VP slot.


New Jersey politics and news
by John DE on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 10:18:20 AM EST

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

I have a question: Virginia seems to have three Democratic stars right now in Warner, Webb and Kaine. If Warner is asked to join the ticket, are there strong second-stringers who could come in and take over the Senate race and win?


by anoregonreader on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 12:35:45 PM EST

Re: VA-Sen: Gilmore Having Trouble Rallying the GO (none / 0)

This is important for two reasons:

1) There's a chance that Obama may pick Warner for VP; if he does, this may mean that even a second tier candidate will have a shot at winning the seat.

2) Virginia will be a swing state at the presidential level this year; with Gilmore unable to rally the base and no other big statewide races this year, driving statewide Republican turnout is going to fall squarely on the McCain campaign's shoulders.

A lackluster Senate nominee who can't rally the base could cost the presidential ticket 1-2 points in November.


by Angry White Democrat on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:05:09 PM EST

Mark Warner for VP (none / 0)

Not only would he make a great VP and future president, but he would deliver Virginia this election and help with working white voters everywhere.  We can find another nominee to beat Gilmore--he's extremely weak.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 05:31:49 PM EST


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