Last week I noted polling out of Arizona showing that John McCain was leading in his home state over Barack Obama by just 10 points. What's more, the polling showed McCain well below 50 percent in the head-to-head matchup. Some were at least a bit incredulous upon reading this news. But lo and behold, a second poll, this one from Rasmussen Reports, finds McCain with an underwhelming lead over Obama in Arizona and polling below 50 percent to boot.

Since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the White House, Barack Obama has enjoyed a bounce in the national polls and in many state polls. John McCain's home state of Arizona is no exception, though the presumptive Republican nominee still enjoys a decent lead in the state.

In April, McCain led Obama by twenty points. Now, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Six percent (6%) say they'll vote for some other candidate and 5% remain undecided. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say McCain is too old to be President while 50% say Obama is too inexperienced.

McCain leads by twenty-seven points among men but trails by six among women. The Arizona Senator is supported by 81% of Republicans and enjoys a twelve point lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama gets the vote from 75% of Democrats.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Arizona voters, Obama by 47%.

These numbers don't scream "Obama opportunity" as much as they do "McCain underperforming," but they do underscore the notion that as voters get a chance to know McCain better they aren't necessarily going to like him more. In fact, the voters who know McCain the best and have known him for the longest -- those in his home state of Arizona -- don't put a huge amount of faith in him judging by the fact that the last two surveys, and three of the last four, have shown McCain unable to secure majority support from Arizonans. It wasn't so long ago that polling showed McCain feebly trailing ahead of his 2010 reelection bid.

It's not the case that both presidential nominees are struggling in their home states. For reference, the two most recent polls out of Obama's home state of Illinois, which were taken all the way back in February and January, show Obama leading by a margin in excess of 25 points with support at or approaching 60 percent. Remember, Illinois used to be a fairly Republican state, with the GOP presidential nominee carrying its electoral votes in every election between 1968 and 1988; no Democrat since Lyndon Johnson has gotten more than 55 percent support in the state in a presidential election.

So if the Democrats can figure out what's in the water in Arizona -- why they don't particularly love McCain (perhaps it has to do with his insatiable ambition, conniving cynicism, his flip-flopping, or something related -- bottle it, and send it around the country, they might be able to figure out the ticket to a real, meaningful victory in November.